UK & Ireland Draw Bias: Every Flat Course Rated

17.9% v 5.3%

Across British and Irish Flat racing since 2019, in races of 8 or more runners, the biggest draw gap is at Chester over 6f (turf), where the low third of the draw won 17.9% against 5.3% for the high third, from 78 races.Sample: 42,160 races · Window: 1 January 2019 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database and declarations (GB and IRE), Industry SP

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National HuntFlat

Draw bias by course and distance


Chester	6f	Turf	78	17.9%	8.0%	5.3%	Low	-
Pontefract	1m2f	Turf	59	16.4%	9.6%	5.7%	Low	-
Kempton (AW)	2m	AW	134	14.9%	8.5%	6.6%	Low	-
Goodwood	5f	Turf	67	13.1%	9.6%	5.2%	Low	-
Kempton (AW)	6f	AW	542	14.0%	9.8%	6.6%	Low	-
Tipperary	5f	Turf	59	4.8%	8.2%	12.1%	High	-
York	1m2½f	Turf	92	11.6%	6.8%	4.5%	Low	-
Pontefract	1m	Turf	120	13.8%	9.2%	6.8%	Low	-
Chester	5f	Turf	56	13.6%	11.4%	7.1%	Low	-
Chelmsford (AW)	5f	AW	151	14.1%	10.8%	7.9%	Low	-
York	1m	Turf	82	10.9%	6.9%	4.8%	Low	-
Redcar	5f	Turf	83	13.3%	9.0%	7.3%	Low	-
Catterick	1m4f	Turf	80	6.9%	8.4%	12.8%	High	-
Yarmouth	1m2f	Turf	106	12.8%	9.7%	7.0%	Low	-
Chelmsford (AW)	1m6f	AW	61	14.1%	7.7%	8.4%	Low	-
Ayr	5f	Turf	59	9.9%	13.6%	4.3%	Low	-
Brighton	1m	Turf	103	7.3%	9.0%	12.9%	High	-
Down Royal	5f	Turf	53	6.7%	10.1%	12.2%	High	-
Goodwood	7f	Turf	111	12.2%	8.1%	6.8%	Low	-
Salisbury	1m2f	Turf	55	8.8%	7.0%	14.2%	High	-
Newmarket (July)	1m	Turf	94	5.6%	13.5%	11.0%	High	-
Curragh	1m4f	Turf	98	10.0%	8.8%	4.6%	Low	-
Brighton	6f	Turf	69	12.2%	12.2%	7.0%	Low	-
Musselburgh	5f	Turf	149	7.5%	8.2%	12.6%	High	-
Ripon	5f	Turf	74	6.2%	12.7%	11.3%	High	-
Wolverhampton (AW)	5f	AW	471	13.3%	10.9%	8.3%	Low	-
Redcar	1m	Turf	134	12.2%	8.2%	7.3%	Low	-
York	5f	Turf	111	10.0%	7.6%	5.0%	Low	-
Gowran Park	1m	Turf	195	10.7%	6.6%	5.8%	Low	-
Bath	5f	Turf	108	12.9%	8.5%	8.2%	Low	-
Chester	1m2½f	Turf	69	11.9%	11.6%	7.3%	Low	-
Southwell (AW)	1m6f	AW	77	6.8%	11.0%	11.4%	High	-
Limerick	1m	Turf	69	5.5%	6.7%	10.1%	High	-
Thirsk	1m4f	Turf	57	5.3%	12.0%	9.8%	High	-
Wolverhampton (AW)	1m4f	AW	314	6.8%	11.4%	11.3%	High	-
Newbury	1m2f	Turf	131	11.2%	10.0%	6.7%	Low	-
Bath	1m2f	Turf	94	8.2%	7.1%	12.7%	High	-
Gowran Park	7f	Turf	168	10.4%	7.4%	6.0%	Low	-
Ascot	1m4f	Turf	90	6.7%	7.8%	11.1%	High	-
Haydock	1m2f	Turf	59	7.9%	9.2%	12.3%	High	-
Thirsk	1m	Turf	136	7.0%	8.3%	11.4%	High	-
Chelmsford (AW)	1m2f	AW	342	11.6%	10.1%	7.2%	Low	-
Doncaster	1m	Turf	133	10.5%	8.3%	6.4%	Low	-
Lingfield	6f	Turf	59	8.7%	8.5%	12.6%	High	-
Pontefract	6f	Turf	189	11.1%	11.6%	7.2%	Low	-
Beverley	5f	Turf	269	11.4%	10.1%	7.5%	Low	-
York	6f	Turf	186	9.1%	7.0%	5.3%	Low	-
Hamilton	1m½f	Turf	94	11.8%	10.3%	8.1%	Low	-
Newbury	1m4f	Turf	55	5.6%	12.8%	9.3%	High	-
Navan	1m	Turf	64	4.9%	8.7%	8.5%	High	-

The course, surface and distance combinations with the widest gap between the low and high thirds of the draw, British and Irish Flat races of 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Thirds are set by stall order among the runners, so non-runners do not shift them. Combinations with 50 or more races come first, ranked by the gap; combinations with 30 to 49 races follow, flagged. Full per-course detail lives on each course page. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Draw thirds overall, turf and all-weather


Turf	24,709	9.1%	8.7%	8.5%
AW	17,451	9.4%	9.9%	8.9%

All British and Irish Flat races of 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019.

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Low v high third win rate, strongest draw biases

Low thirdHigh third

Win % by Course and distance

UK and Ireland draw bias index: every Flat course


Chester	GB	Turf	2016	682	Low third, 6f	50.0%	29.8%	104	Strong	Strong	7½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Pontefract	GB	Turf	2016	720	Low third, 1m	46.2%	30.1%	173	Strong	Strong	6f	Moderate	Holding
Goodwood	GB	Turf	2016	864	Low third, 7f	45.8%	30.0%	168	Strong	Strong	7f	Strong	Stronger lately
Ascot	GB	Turf	2016	1,006	High third, 5f	49.3%	36.2%	136	Strong	Moderate	1m	Weak or none	Weaker lately
Yarmouth	GB	Turf	2016	978	Low third, 1m2f	41.9%	29.8%	136	Strong	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Gowran Park	IRE	Turf	2016	811	Low third, 7f	41.9%	30.4%	229	Strong	Strong	1m1½f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
York	GB	Turf	2016	1,077	Low third, 6f	41.5%	30.5%	248	Strong	Strong	6f	Strong	Holding
Kempton	GB	All-Weather	2016	3,898	Low third, 6f	40.4%	29.7%	767	Strong	Strong	1m	Moderate	No clear lean in either period
The Curragh	IRE	Turf	2016	1,458	Low third, 1m4f	39.2%	30.3%	125	Strong	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Holding
Chelmsford City	GB	All-Weather	2016	2,585	Low third, 1m	37.1%	29.8%	517	Strong	Strong	7f	Weak or none	Weaker lately
Newcastle	GB	All-Weather	2016	3,371	High third, 5f	43.3%	36.2%	480	Strong	Strong	6f	Strong	Weaker lately
Lingfield	GB	All-Weather	2016	2,933	Middle third, 1m2f	40.7%	33.9%	491	Strong	Moderate	1m	Weak or none	Holding
Beverley	GB	Turf	2016	993	Low third, 5f	35.4%	30.0%	376	Strong	Moderate	5f	Strong	Stronger lately
Wolverhampton	GB	All-Weather	2016	5,156	Middle third, 7f	37.7%	34.1%	1,144	Strong	Strong	7f	Strong	Holding
Tipperary	IRE	Turf	2016	328	High third, 5f	56.1%	36.2%	82	Moderate	Strong	7½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Carlisle	GB	Turf	2016	639	Middle third, 1m3f	48.1%	33.9%	54	Moderate	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Gone lately
Ayr	GB	Turf	2016	945	Middle third, 5f	48.2%	34.1%	85	Moderate	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Limerick	IRE	Turf	2016	308	High third, 7f	50.0%	36.7%	64	Moderate	Weak or none	1m	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Roscommon	IRE	Turf	2016	333	Low third, 1m4f	43.2%	30.7%	81	Moderate	Weak or none	7½f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Bath	GB	Turf	2016	912	High third, 1m2f	47.5%	36.5%	118	Moderate	Weak or none	5½f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Redcar	GB	Turf	2016	1,058	Low third, 5f	40.2%	29.5%	117	Moderate	Strong	6f	Moderate	Gone lately
Brighton	GB	Turf	2016	670	High third, 1m	45.9%	36.2%	159	Moderate	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Newmarket (July Course)	GB	Turf	2016	732	Middle third, 1m	42.4%	34.4%	139	Moderate	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Thirsk	GB	Turf	2016	976	Middle third, 1m4f	41.5%	33.8%	94	Moderate	Strong	6f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Leicester	GB	Turf	2016	827	Low third, 6f	35.8%	29.6%	193	Moderate	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Holding
Dundalk	IRE	All-Weather	2016	3,027	Middle third, 7f	37.7%	34.4%	727	Moderate	Moderate	1m	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Fairyhouse	IRE	Turf	2016	365	Middle third, 1m2f	46.2%	33.4%	52	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Salisbury	GB	Turf	2016	618	High third, 1m2f	47.6%	36.0%	84	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Holding
Epsom	GB	Turf	2016	396	Middle third, 1m4f	45.1%	34.0%	91	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Ffos Las	GB	Turf	2016	247	Middle third, 1m	45.5%	34.5%	44	Weak or none	Weak or none	7½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Navan	IRE	Turf	2016	651	Middle third, 1m6f	43.8%	33.5%	48	Weak or none	Weak or none	5f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Ballinrobe	IRE	Turf	2016	129	Middle third, 1m5f	43.9%	33.9%	41	Weak or none	Weak or none	1m1½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Sligo	IRE	Turf	2016	158	High third, 1m2½f	46.0%	36.3%	50	Weak or none	Moderate	1m2½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Chepstow	GB	Turf	2016	640	High third, 7f	45.3%	36.3%	148	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Bellewstown	IRE	Turf	2016	322	Low third, 1m	39.2%	30.7%	148	Weak or none	Moderate	1m	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Leopardstown	IRE	Turf	2016	924	Middle third, 1m1f	41.9%	33.4%	86	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Southwell	GB	Tapeta	2021	1,721	Middle third, 1m3f	42.6%	34.2%	115	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Holding
Listowel	IRE	Turf	2016	230	Middle third, 1m	41.9%	33.5%	74	Weak or none	Weak or none	1m	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Down Royal	IRE	Turf	2016	278	High third, 5f	43.9%	35.9%	66	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Haydock	GB	Turf	2016	981	Low third, 7f	37.4%	29.6%	195	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Gone lately
Hamilton	GB	Turf	2016	661	Low third, 1m½f	37.1%	29.3%	143	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Doncaster	GB	Turf	2016	1,265	Low third, 1m	37.4%	29.8%	179	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Weaker lately
Nottingham	GB	Turf	2016	1,004	Middle third, 1m2f	41.4%	34.2%	220	Weak or none	Weak or none	1m½f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Galway	IRE	Turf	2016	406	Low third, 7f	37.9%	30.8%	145	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Musselburgh	GB	Turf	2016	681	High third, 5f	43.3%	36.3%	208	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Ripon	GB	Turf	2016	665	Middle third, 5f	41.1%	34.3%	107	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Cork	IRE	Turf	2016	585	Low third, 5f	35.8%	29.7%	95	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Newbury	GB	Turf	2016	1,026	Low third, 1m2f	35.1%	29.4%	174	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	Stronger lately
Naas	IRE	Turf	2016	816	Low third, 6f	36.2%	30.5%	271	Weak or none	Strong	6f	Weak or none	Holding
Sandown	GB	Turf	2016	620	High third, 1m2f	41.5%	36.2%	159	Weak or none	Weak or none	1m2f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Windsor	GB	Turf	2016	1,277	Low third, 1m	35.0%	29.7%	277	Weak or none	Weak or none	6f	Weak or none	Holding
Wetherby	GB	Turf	2016	168	Middle third, 5½f	38.3%	33.0%	47	Weak or none	Weak or none	5½f	Weak or none	Too few recent races
Catterick	GB	Turf	2016	855	Low third, 5f	33.9%	29.3%	192	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Newmarket (Rowley Mile)	GB	Turf	2016	1,049	High third, 1m	40.7%	36.4%	246	Weak or none	Weak or none	7f	Weak or none	No clear lean in either period
Killarney	IRE	Turf	2016	337	Middle third, 1m	37.6%	33.8%	194	Weak or none	Weak or none	1m	Weak or none	Holding
Tramore	IRE	Turf	2022	35	High third, 1m4f	71.4%	35.4%	21	Not enough data	Not enough data	1m4f	Not enough data	Too few recent races
Thurles	IRE	Turf	2018	46	Low third, 1m	44.0%	29.8%	25	Not enough data	Weak or none	1m	Not enough data	Too few recent races
Clonmel	IRE	Turf	2016	42	Middle third, 1m1½f	42.9%	33.5%	28	Not enough data	Weak or none	1m1½f	Not enough data	Too few recent races
Punchestown	IRE	Turf	2020	49	High third, 1m1f	41.7%	36.5%	24	Not enough data	Weak or none	1m1f	Not enough data	Too few recent races

Every British and Irish Flat course with a RaceWatch draw bias page, sorted by the strength of its clearest draw effect. Figures use races of 8 or more runners with a full draw since 2016 (later where a course or surface started later). Bias rating is a chi-square test of winners by draw third against chance: Strong p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, Not enough data under 40 races. Each course page has the full matrix by distance, going and field size.

Draw thirds by field size


Turf	8 to 11 runners	15,083	11.0%	10.8%	10.4%
Turf	12 to 15 runners	7,008	8.2%	7.4%	7.2%
Turf	16 or more runners	2,618	5.8%	5.2%	5.3%
AW	8 to 11 runners	11,451	10.6%	11.0%	10.1%
AW	12 to 15 runners	5,965	7.7%	8.4%	7.3%
AW	16 or more runners	35	9.6%	5.2%	3.2%

Field size = runners that took part.

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Draw bias by going, strongest 15 combinations


Catterick	Turf	1m4f	Good or firmer	39	7.4%	10.7%	Under 50 races
Catterick	Turf	1m4f	Soft or heavy	25	6.8%	16.1%	Under 50 races
Chelmsford (AW)	AW	5f	Standard (AW)	151	14.1%	7.9%	-
Chelmsford (AW)	AW	1m6f	Standard (AW)	61	14.1%	8.4%	-
Chester	Turf	5f	Good or firmer	29	15.0%	6.8%	Under 50 races
Chester	Turf	6f	Good or firmer	44	14.9%	7.6%	Under 50 races
Goodwood	Turf	5f	Good or firmer	48	11.3%	5.2%	Under 50 races
Kempton (AW)	AW	6f	Standard (AW)	542	14.0%	6.6%	-
Kempton (AW)	AW	2m	Standard (AW)	134	14.9%	6.6%	-
Pontefract	Turf	1m	Good or firmer	73	12.6%	7.2%	-
Pontefract	Turf	1m	Soft or heavy	29	20.2%	4.6%	Under 50 races
Pontefract	Turf	1m2f	Good or firmer	43	14.6%	5.8%	Under 50 races
Redcar	Turf	5f	Good or firmer	69	12.1%	7.6%	-
Tipperary	Turf	5f	Good or firmer	27	5.2%	10.6%	Under 50 races
Tipperary	Turf	5f	Good to soft	21	3.8%	14.0%	Under 50 races
Yarmouth	Turf	1m2f	Good or firmer	71	13.1%	6.9%	-
Yarmouth	Turf	1m2f	Good to soft	22	10.0%	8.0%	Under 50 races
York	Turf	1m	Good or firmer	52	11.9%	4.3%	-
York	Turf	1m2½f	Good or firmer	63	12.0%	3.8%	-

The 15 combinations with 50 or more races and the widest low v high gap, split by official going. Going rows under 20 races omitted; under 50 flagged.

Today's races at a course and distance in the table

27 runners today match this. See them in the app.

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Draw figures on today's card

Members see draw and pace data on every Flat runner in today's racecards, with RWS scores and Speed+ speed and sectional data sectionals.

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Which UK and Irish courses have the strongest draw bias?

The index table ranks every course by its clearest draw effect. At the top, Chester (low third, 6f) has seen that third win 50% of 104 races against 29.8% by chance.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Does draw bias change with the going?

The going table lists the strongest course, distance and going combinations, since the favoured side can switch when the ground changes.

Does field size change draw bias?

The field size table compares the three thirds of the draw by field size on turf and all-weather, since bigger fields spread the stalls further.

Which of today's races have a draw bias figure?

Today's table lists each race at a course and distance in the draw bias table, with runners and the low and high third win rates.

Questions people ask

Which course and trip has the biggest per-runner draw gap?

Measured per runner since 2019, Chester over 6f has the biggest gap: low-drawn runners have won 17.9% of their starts against 5.3% for high-drawn runners. The figure comes from 78 races of eight or more runners.

How many races are needed for a reliable draw figure?

RaceWatch marks any course, trip, going or field size row with fewer than 40 races as not enough data, and a strong rating needs 100 or more races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden altogether.

Which Flat course has the clearest draw bias in the index?

Chester leads the index, where the low third, 6f has won 50% of 104 races against 29.8% by chance. That effect is rated strong on a chi-square test of winners by draw third.

Is draw bias stronger on turf or all-weather?

The summary table compares low, middle and high thirds on turf and all-weather across all courses. Individual courses vary far more than the overall figures.

Why does draw bias switch with the going?

Softer ground can favour one side of a straight course or the inside rail on a bend, and firm ground can do the opposite. The going table shows the combinations where the effect is strongest.

How often is the draw bias page updated?

The course table is rebuilt as new Flat results arrive, and today's races are listed each morning. Today there are 27 races at a course and distance in the table.

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Updated 2026-09-24

UK and Ireland draw bias: every Flat course rated

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Draw bias by course and distance

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Draw thirds overall, turf and all-weather

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UK and Ireland draw bias index: every Flat course

Draw thirds by field size

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Draw bias by going, strongest 15 combinations

Today's races at a course and distance in the table

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Draw figures on today's card

Which UK and Irish courses have the strongest draw bias?

How is the bias rating worked out?

Does draw bias change with the going?

Does field size change draw bias?

Which of today's races have a draw bias figure?

Questions people ask

More free data

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