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Fairyhouse draw bias: the Flat side of a jumps venue

At Fairyhouse over 6f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 31.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (146 races), middle draws 32.9% and high draws 35.6%, against 30.8%, 33.4% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Fairyhouse declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 21 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m2f
Trip where the draw stands out most
365
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 31.5% v 30.8%

At Fairyhouse over 6f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 31.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (146 races), middle draws 32.9% and high draws 35.6%, against 30.8%, 33.4% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 146 races · Window: 2 June 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Fairyhouse draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3654,78830.7%30.9%35.1%33.5%34.2%35.6%24.8%22.6%21.3%22.9%Middle +1.6 pts0.799Weak or none
6fAll goingAll field sizes1461,91231.5%30.8%32.9%33.4%35.6%35.9%27.2%21.0%21.0%22.9%Low +0.7 pts0.981Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2126719.0%30.0%47.6%33.2%33.3%36.8%23.5%28.4%19.4%23.6%Middle +14.4 pts0.328Not enough data
6fGoodAll field sizes981,27334.7%30.8%26.5%33.5%38.8%35.6%28.5%20.2%21.1%23.1%Low +3.9 pts0.337Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2737229.6%31.2%44.4%32.9%25.9%35.8%25.0%18.7%21.8%21.8%Middle +11.5 pts0.396Not enough data
6fAll going8 to 11 runners5450633.3%29.4%25.9%33.7%40.7%36.9%38.3%28.2%30.5%32.0%Low +3.9 pts0.477Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners4459136.4%32.0%29.5%33.0%34.1%35.1%26.5%19.5%21.3%22.3%Low +4.4 pts0.806Weak or none
6fAll going16 or more runners4881525.0%31.3%43.8%33.3%31.3%35.4%21.2%17.6%14.6%17.7%Middle +10.5 pts0.302Weak or none
6fGood8 to 11 runners4239138.1%29.6%21.4%33.9%40.5%36.5%40.5%28.8%28.7%32.2%Low +8.5 pts0.210Weak or none
6fGood12 to 15 runners2433137.5%32.0%12.5%32.9%50.0%35.1%25.5%15.6%24.1%21.8%High +14.9 pts0.092Not enough data
6fGood16 or more runners3255128.1%31.5%43.8%33.6%28.1%34.9%22.4%16.8%13.5%17.4%Middle +10.2 pts0.465Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes981,32131.6%30.8%37.8%33.9%30.6%35.4%25.1%21.5%20.4%22.3%Middle +3.9 pts0.579Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes6994831.9%30.5%37.7%33.9%30.4%35.7%25.7%21.6%18.8%21.8%Middle +3.8 pts0.645Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners3532434.3%29.2%40.0%34.4%25.7%36.4%32.6%30.6%33.9%32.4%Middle +5.6 pts0.423Not enough data
7fAll going12 to 15 runners2330939.1%31.8%34.8%33.6%26.1%34.6%31.6%19.2%16.8%22.3%Low +7.3 pts0.642Not enough data
7fAll going16 or more runners4068825.0%31.5%37.5%33.6%37.5%35.0%18.9%18.2%15.4%17.4%Middle +3.9 pts0.672Weak or none
7fGood8 to 11 runners2220931.8%28.1%36.4%34.6%31.8%37.3%32.2%29.2%33.3%31.6%Low +3.7 pts0.859Not enough data
7fGood16 or more runners2949520.7%31.3%41.4%33.5%37.9%35.2%19.4%18.7%14.9%17.6%Middle +7.9 pts0.441Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes5263326.9%30.8%46.2%33.4%26.9%35.8%25.0%29.9%19.5%24.6%Middle +12.8 pts0.139Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes3238228.1%30.6%43.8%33.4%28.1%36.0%26.3%29.1%20.4%25.1%Middle +10.4 pts0.439Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners2625515.4%29.5%50.0%33.7%34.6%36.8%28.0%38.4%25.5%30.6%Middle +16.3 pts0.147Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes5069834.0%31.5%26.0%33.5%40.0%35.0%18.6%20.5%25.0%21.5%High +5.0 pts0.524Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes3447535.3%31.7%26.5%33.0%38.2%35.3%20.5%21.7%22.2%21.5%Low +3.6 pts0.717Not enough data
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2230036.4%31.7%22.7%33.3%40.9%35.0%20.0%20.0%25.7%22.0%High +5.9 pts0.575Not enough data

Flat races at Fairyhouse with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 2 June 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Fairyhouse draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances36530.7%35.1%34.2%30.9%33.5%35.6%Weak or none9740.2%27.8%32.0%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
6f14631.5%32.9%35.6%30.8%33.4%35.9%Weak or none3743.2%24.3%32.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f9831.6%37.8%30.6%30.8%33.9%35.4%Weak or none2941.4%27.6%31.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f5226.9%46.2%26.9%30.8%33.4%35.8%Weak or none1442.9%35.7%21.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f5034.0%26.0%40.0%31.5%33.5%35.0%Weak or none944.4%22.2%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Fairyhouse stall by stall at each distance

6f1136128.8%8.1%29.4%24.4%+5.0
6f21381410.1%8.2%33.3%24.6%+8.7
6f3136128.8%8.2%30.1%24.5%+5.7
6f413885.8%8.2%23.2%24.7%-1.5
6f513864.3%8.3%21.0%24.8%-3.7
6f6131129.2%8.3%26.0%24.8%+1.2
6f71381410.1%8.2%19.6%24.7%-5.2
6f8125129.6%8.3%23.2%24.8%-1.6
6f9126118.7%8.0%23.0%24.1%-1.1
6f1011476.1%7.7%22.8%23.0%-0.2
6f119777.2%7.1%17.5%21.4%-3.9
6f1287910.3%6.9%25.3%20.6%+4.7
6f138033.8%6.6%22.5%19.7%+2.8
6f147057.1%6.4%15.7%19.1%-3.3
6f156334.8%6.3%15.9%19.0%-3.1
6f165735.3%6.2%12.3%18.5%-6.3
7f19388.6%8.0%29.0%24.0%+5.1
7f2891112.4%8.2%29.2%24.5%+4.8
7f39066.7%8.1%27.8%24.3%+3.5
7f4951212.6%8.1%31.6%24.3%+7.3
7f59366.5%8.1%18.3%24.3%-6.0
7f69044.4%8.0%20.0%24.1%-4.1
7f78844.5%8.1%25.0%24.4%+0.6
7f89288.7%8.0%27.2%23.9%+3.3
7f97956.3%7.8%15.2%23.4%-8.2
7f107368.2%7.3%21.9%21.8%+0.2
7f116723.0%6.9%22.4%20.8%+1.5
7f125747.0%6.6%15.8%19.7%-4.0
7f136058.3%6.6%15.0%19.7%-4.7
7f145223.8%6.3%19.2%18.8%+0.4

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Fairyhouse draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances27332.2%30.8%33.3%33.5%34.4%35.7%25.5%22.0%21.8%
6f10433.7%30.7%28.8%33.5%37.5%35.8%27.7%19.8%23.2%
7f7732.5%30.6%39.0%33.9%28.6%35.6%25.8%21.3%19.8%
1m2f3933.3%30.9%41.0%33.2%25.6%35.9%28.6%26.8%19.5%
1m4f3432.4%31.7%26.5%33.2%41.2%35.1%17.4%21.6%23.4%

Flat races at Fairyhouse with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Fairyhouse draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low27332.2%30.8%8.0%1,1068825.5%
Middle27333.3%33.5%7.6%1,1919122.0%
High27334.4%35.7%7.4%1,2639421.8%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Fairyhouse draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances32632.8%30.5%31.0%33.2%36.2%36.3%
6f12733.1%30.3%27.6%33.2%39.4%36.5%
7f9333.3%30.1%35.5%33.5%31.2%36.4%
1m2f4533.3%30.7%37.8%32.7%28.9%36.6%
1m4f3933.3%31.6%25.6%32.9%41.0%35.6%

Every Flat race at Fairyhouse with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Fairyhouse draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances5335.8%29.0%18.9%31.6%45.3%39.4%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances10430.8%29.4%31.7%33.9%37.5%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances8438.1%31.9%31.0%33.2%31.0%34.9%
16 or more runnersAll distances8528.2%31.5%37.6%33.3%34.1%35.2%
3 to 7 runners6f2330.4%28.5%21.7%32.0%47.8%39.5%
8 to 11 runners6f4238.1%29.3%21.4%33.9%40.5%36.8%
12 to 15 runners6f3135.5%31.9%29.0%33.1%35.5%35.0%
16 or more runners6f3125.8%31.3%38.7%33.4%35.5%35.4%
8 to 11 runners7f2733.3%28.8%37.0%34.5%29.6%36.7%
16 or more runners7f3225.0%31.4%43.8%33.4%31.3%35.2%
8 to 11 runners1m2f2020.0%29.8%45.0%33.3%35.0%36.8%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Fairyhouse draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances2630.8%30.5%42.3%35.8%26.9%
GoodAll distances20433.8%30.8%35.3%35.7%30.9%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances2222.7%31.1%27.3%35.3%50.0%
SoftAll distances2128.6%30.9%23.8%35.8%47.6%
Good6f7736.4%30.6%40.3%35.7%23.4%
Good7f6035.0%30.3%28.3%35.8%36.7%
Good1m2f2733.3%30.9%29.6%36.0%37.0%
Good1m4f2729.6%31.8%37.0%35.4%33.3%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Fairyhouse individual stalls, most-run distances

6f410066.0%8.5%23.0%

The two most-run distances at Fairyhouse in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Fairyhouse 6f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 31.5%Since 2016 Middle: 32.9%Since 2016 High: 35.6%Since 2024 Low: 43.2%Since 2024 Middle: 24.3%Since 2024 High: 32.4%Expected by chance Low: 30.8%Expected by chance Middle: 33.4%Expected by chance High: 35.9%

Win % of races by Draw third

Fairyhouse win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%6f7f1m2f1m4fLow third 6f: 33.7%Low third 7f: 32.5%Low third 1m2f: 33.3%Low third 1m4f: 32.4%Middle third 6f: 28.8%Middle third 7f: 39%Middle third 1m2f: 41%Middle third 1m4f: 26.5%High third 6f: 37.5%High third 7f: 28.6%High third 1m2f: 25.6%High third 1m4f: 41.2%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Fairyhouse and their draw

21 Sep 26Caffu Zafeen (IRE) silksCaffu Zafeen (IRE)15High176f23.00
21 Sep 26Pink Venom (IRE) silksPink Venom (IRE)7High76f1.80
21 Sep 26Big Negotiator (GB) silksBig Negotiator (GB)3Low106f3.25
21 Sep 26Prevalence (GB) silksPrevalence (GB)4Low127f10.00
21 Sep 26Naoi (IRE) silksNaoi (IRE)2Low187f5.00
21 Sep 26Divine Legend (IRE) silksDivine Legend (IRE)12Middle177f3.25
21 Sep 26Shesthedevil (IRE) silksShesthedevil (IRE)6High67f3.75
8 Jul 26Contrary To Law (IRE) silksContrary To Law (IRE)4Low157f2.62
8 Jul 26Glory To Be (IRE) silksGlory To Be (IRE)2Low77f4.00
8 Jul 26Bamako Beach (IRE) silksBamako Beach (IRE)3Low157f1.36
8 Jul 26Tounsivator (FR) silksTounsivator (FR)4Middle81m6f3.50
8 Jul 26Nail House (IRE) silksNail House (IRE)2Low86f4.00
8 Jul 26Livenka (GB) silksLivenka (GB)1Low96f1.83
8 Jul 26Pass The Buck (IRE) silksPass The Buck (IRE)4Middle91m2f2.38
8 Jul 26Floresta (IRE) silksFloresta (IRE)5Middle91m6f7.00
1 Jul 26Vanir (IRE) silksVanir (IRE)5Low121m4f2.10
1 Jul 26Pete's Dream (IRE) silksPete's Dream (IRE)12High121m½f8.00
1 Jul 26Kirkland Sioux (IRE) silksKirkland Sioux (IRE)13High141m½f7.00
1 Jul 26Caitouna (IRE) silksCaitouna (IRE)15Middle187f15.00
1 Jul 26Treasure Rose (IRE) silksTreasure Rose (IRE)9High116f6.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Fairyhouse in the data with a full draw.

Fairyhouse win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 16.1%Low third 2020: 24%Low third 2021: 42.4%Low third 2022: 32.3%Low third 2023: 25.8%Low third 2024: 27.6%Low third 2025: 35.5%Low third 2026: 54.1%54.1%Middle third 2019: 51.6%Middle third 2020: 42%Middle third 2021: 21.2%Middle third 2022: 35.5%Middle third 2023: 29%Middle third 2024: 34.5%Middle third 2025: 29%Middle third 2026: 21.6%21.6%High third 2019: 32.3%High third 2020: 34%High third 2021: 36.4%High third 2022: 32.3%High third 2023: 45.2%High third 2024: 37.9%High third 2025: 35.5%High third 2026: 24.3%24.3%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Fairyhouse?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Fairyhouse, the draw rates weak or none from 146 races. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the middle third has won 46.2% against 33.4% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is there a draw bias at Fairyhouse over 6f and 7f?

Fairyhouse's 6f and 7f rows carry most of its Flat sample. Across all distances pooled, the Fairyhouse thirds sit close to chance.

How do going and field size change the draw at Fairyhouse?

The bias matrix gives every Fairyhouse trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Fairyhouse draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 6f the check reads too few recent races, from 37 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Fairyhouse?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Fairyhouse, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 31.5% of 146 races against 30.8% by chance. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the middle third has won 46.2% against 33.4% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Fairyhouse over 6f?

Stall 2 has the best top-three record over 6f at Fairyhouse since 2016, placing in 33.3% of 138 runs against 22.9% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Fairyhouse?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 30.7% of Fairyhouse races against 30.9% by chance, and high draws 34.2% against 35.6%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Are Fairyhouse Flat draw figures reliable enough to use on their own?

Fairyhouse stages fewer Flat races than the main Irish Flat tracks, so its sample is modest. The race count on each row shows how much weight the figure can carry.

How often are the Fairyhouse draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseFairyhouse course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseFairyhouse racecardsThe next meeting's full cardNavan draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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