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Chepstow draw bias: the undulating straight mile

At Chepstow over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 23% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (148 races), middle draws 31.8% and high draws 45.3%, against 29.7%, 34% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Chepstow declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 31 August 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
7f
Trip where the draw stands out most
640
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 45.3% v 36.3%

At Chepstow over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 23.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (148 races), middle draws 31.8% and high draws 45.3%, against 29.7%, 34.0% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 148 races · Window: 29 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Chepstow draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes6406,54329.2%29.4%30.3%34.1%40.6%36.5%28.7%29.6%29.8%29.3%High +4.1 pts0.056Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes9186728.6%29.2%29.7%34.5%41.8%36.3%29.7%30.3%34.4%31.5%High +5.5 pts0.502Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2726022.2%29.1%40.7%34.4%37.0%36.6%28.9%32.6%31.6%31.2%Middle +6.3 pts0.685Not enough data
5fGoodAll field sizes3129225.8%28.8%25.8%34.5%48.4%36.7%29.4%31.0%35.5%31.8%High +11.7 pts0.381Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3331536.4%29.8%24.2%34.6%39.4%35.6%30.5%27.8%35.7%31.4%Low +6.6 pts0.444Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners7565925.3%28.8%33.3%34.7%41.3%36.5%30.4%33.5%38.2%34.1%High +4.8 pts0.664Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners232068.7%28.9%47.8%34.2%43.5%36.8%23.3%38.6%36.8%33.5%Middle +13.6 pts0.092Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners2622923.1%28.2%30.8%34.8%46.2%37.1%30.8%34.2%37.6%34.1%High +9.1 pts0.626Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2622442.3%29.2%23.1%35.0%34.6%35.8%36.4%28.2%40.0%34.8%Low +13.1 pts0.274Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes1371,46031.4%29.5%32.1%34.0%36.5%36.5%27.6%29.2%27.8%28.2%Low +1.9 pts0.860Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4547137.8%29.1%26.7%34.3%35.6%36.6%30.2%25.0%31.4%28.7%Low +8.7 pts0.378Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes4549933.3%30.0%37.8%33.9%28.9%36.1%24.5%32.1%24.4%27.1%Middle +3.9 pts0.601Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4749023.4%29.4%31.9%33.8%44.7%36.8%28.3%30.3%27.8%28.8%High +7.9 pts0.492Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners9386430.1%28.6%29.0%34.4%40.9%37.0%32.3%32.8%32.2%32.3%High +3.9 pts0.540Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners3951433.3%31.6%38.5%33.0%28.2%35.4%22.2%25.9%20.3%22.8%Middle +5.5 pts0.620Not enough data
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3128229.0%27.8%29.0%35.0%41.9%37.2%34.2%31.6%34.3%33.0%High +4.7 pts0.774Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners2724537.0%29.3%29.6%34.4%33.3%36.3%31.9%35.7%31.5%33.1%Low +7.7 pts0.669Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3533725.7%28.7%28.6%33.9%45.7%37.4%30.9%31.6%31.0%31.2%High +8.3 pts0.588Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1481,55623.0%29.7%31.8%34.0%45.3%36.3%27.5%28.8%29.3%28.5%High +9.0 pts0.055Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3638311.1%29.2%41.7%33.9%47.2%36.9%22.1%27.9%33.3%28.2%High +10.3 pts0.058Not enough data
7fGoodAll field sizes5255023.1%30.0%17.3%33.9%59.6%36.1%21.7%26.9%35.4%28.4%High +23.5 pts0.001Moderate
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6062330.0%29.8%38.3%34.2%31.7%36.0%35.8%31.1%21.4%28.9%Middle +4.1 pts0.735Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners10497121.2%28.9%32.7%34.4%46.2%36.7%31.0%34.5%31.1%32.1%High +9.5 pts0.093Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners4153629.3%31.8%29.3%33.2%41.5%35.0%23.5%19.7%25.5%22.9%High +6.5 pts0.687Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2321413.0%27.9%43.5%34.8%43.5%37.4%28.3%36.5%31.3%32.2%Middle +8.7 pts0.279Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners3633722.2%29.3%16.7%34.0%61.1%36.7%25.3%30.7%38.7%32.0%High +24.4 pts0.008Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4542024.4%29.0%40.0%34.6%35.6%36.4%36.9%36.6%24.8%32.1%Middle +5.4 pts0.703Weak or none
1mAll goingAll field sizes991,00426.3%29.1%35.4%34.2%38.4%36.7%26.4%32.8%29.1%29.6%High +1.7 pts0.828Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3332727.3%29.0%36.4%34.5%36.4%36.5%26.0%38.4%26.1%30.3%Middle +1.9 pts0.967Not enough data
1mGoodAll field sizes3334324.2%28.9%42.4%33.7%33.3%37.4%26.0%34.8%25.8%28.9%Middle +8.7 pts0.566Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3333427.3%29.3%27.3%34.5%45.5%36.2%27.3%25.4%35.5%29.6%High +9.3 pts0.518Not enough data
1mAll going8 to 11 runners7568728.0%28.2%36.0%34.7%36.0%37.1%32.3%37.1%29.0%32.8%Middle +1.3 pts0.969Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners2228518.2%31.7%36.4%33.0%45.5%35.4%14.4%24.5%29.7%23.2%High +10.1 pts0.374Not enough data
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2522728.0%28.0%40.0%35.0%32.0%37.0%31.3%43.0%25.0%33.0%Middle +5.0 pts0.840Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners2624626.9%28.3%46.2%33.9%26.9%37.8%32.9%37.3%25.8%31.7%Middle +12.3 pts0.373Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2421429.2%28.3%20.8%35.2%50.0%36.5%32.8%30.7%37.2%33.6%High +13.5 pts0.270Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes5553736.4%28.9%25.5%34.4%40.0%36.7%31.8%30.1%30.5%30.7%Low +7.5 pts0.288Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes2221831.8%29.5%31.8%34.3%40.9%36.2%23.1%36.5%30.4%30.3%High +4.7 pts0.898Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners4540728.9%28.3%28.9%34.8%44.4%36.8%31.9%32.6%34.7%33.2%High +7.6 pts0.557Weak or none
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes7374828.8%29.6%28.8%33.9%42.5%36.5%30.0%29.0%29.3%29.3%High +6.0 pts0.526Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes2323739.1%29.8%17.4%33.4%43.5%36.8%32.4%24.1%31.0%29.1%Low +9.3 pts0.256Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3334318.2%29.8%42.4%33.8%39.4%36.4%27.2%28.7%31.2%28.9%Middle +8.6 pts0.314Not enough data
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners5449833.3%28.8%29.6%34.3%37.0%36.9%36.8%32.4%29.9%32.5%Low +4.5 pts0.694Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2422220.8%29.2%45.8%34.4%33.3%36.4%33.8%30.3%34.6%32.4%Middle +11.4 pts0.459Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes3433747.1%29.7%17.6%34.0%35.3%36.3%34.7%24.6%32.0%30.3%Low +17.4 pts0.047Not enough data
2mAll going8 to 11 runners2725248.1%28.9%14.8%34.3%37.0%36.9%34.2%27.9%34.4%32.1%Low +19.2 pts0.040Not enough data

Flat races at Chepstow with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 29 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Chepstow draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances64029.2%30.3%40.6%29.4%34.1%36.5%Weak or none14032.1%32.9%35.0%Weak or noneGone lately
5f9128.6%29.7%41.8%29.2%34.5%36.3%Weak or none1833.3%27.8%38.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f13731.4%32.1%36.5%29.5%34.0%36.5%Weak or none3231.3%31.3%37.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f14823.0%31.8%45.3%29.7%34.0%36.3%Weak or none3231.3%31.3%37.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m9926.3%35.4%38.4%29.1%34.2%36.7%Weak or none3125.8%45.2%29.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f5536.4%25.5%40.0%28.9%34.4%36.7%Weak or none1741.2%17.6%41.2%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f7328.8%28.8%42.5%29.6%33.9%36.5%Weak or none1040.0%40.0%20.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m3447.1%17.6%35.3%29.7%34.0%36.3%Not enough data0---Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Chepstow stall by stall at each distance

5f187910.3%10.8%28.7%32.4%-3.6
5f28689.3%10.9%33.7%32.6%+1.1
5f3831214.5%10.7%32.5%32.2%+0.3
5f4831012.0%10.9%37.3%32.6%+4.7
5f58678.1%10.9%25.6%32.8%-7.2
5f6871011.5%10.8%40.2%32.5%+7.8
5f78655.8%10.9%20.9%32.8%-11.8
5f88289.8%10.8%29.3%32.3%-3.1
5f9611016.4%10.4%41.0%31.2%+9.8
6f11261310.3%9.7%32.5%29.2%+3.3
6f21271713.4%9.8%32.3%29.4%+2.8
6f3126107.9%9.8%28.6%29.4%-0.8
6f41261310.3%9.7%27.8%29.2%-1.5
6f51311511.5%9.8%27.5%29.5%-2.0
6f612264.9%9.7%26.2%29.1%-2.9
6f7127118.7%9.8%32.3%29.3%+3.0
6f81261612.7%9.8%28.6%29.4%-0.9
6f9118108.5%9.7%26.3%29.0%-2.7
6f109566.3%8.9%22.1%26.8%-4.7
6f11691420.3%8.4%37.7%25.2%+12.5
6f125411.9%7.9%16.7%23.7%-7.1
7f1134129.0%10.0%35.1%29.9%+5.2
7f2137128.8%9.9%25.5%29.8%-4.2
7f314196.4%9.9%27.7%29.7%-2.1
7f41381510.9%9.8%29.0%29.5%-0.5
7f5137107.3%9.8%24.8%29.4%-4.6
7f614574.8%9.9%30.3%29.8%+0.6
7f71361511.0%9.8%31.6%29.4%+2.2
7f81421913.4%9.9%31.0%29.6%+1.4
7f91201411.7%9.5%27.5%28.5%-1.0
7f101001212.0%9.1%21.0%27.2%-6.2
7f117745.2%8.5%27.3%25.6%+1.7
1m19066.7%10.3%26.7%30.8%-4.1
1m2871314.9%10.2%28.7%30.5%-1.8
1m39255.4%10.2%30.4%30.6%-0.2
1m49399.7%10.3%28.0%30.8%-2.8
1m59488.5%10.3%35.1%31.0%+4.1
1m6921415.2%10.2%38.0%30.7%+7.3
1m79288.7%10.3%27.2%30.8%-3.6
1m89499.6%10.3%30.9%30.8%+0.1
1m980911.3%9.9%27.5%29.6%-2.1
1m105647.1%9.2%25.0%27.5%-2.5
1m4f163812.7%10.1%30.2%30.3%-0.1
1m4f263812.7%10.0%34.9%30.1%+4.8
1m4f36457.8%10.2%42.2%30.7%+11.4
1m4f46469.4%10.1%21.9%30.2%-8.3
1m4f56746.0%10.2%28.4%30.5%-2.2
1m4f66457.8%10.1%23.4%30.4%-6.9
1m4f76457.8%10.1%25.0%30.4%-5.4
1m4f866710.6%10.1%33.3%30.2%+3.2
1m4f95935.1%9.8%23.7%29.4%-5.6
1m4f1051713.7%9.5%35.3%28.6%+6.7

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Chepstow draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances44629.6%29.3%31.2%34.2%39.2%36.5%28.9%29.7%30.0%
5f6927.5%28.9%30.4%34.6%42.0%36.5%31.9%30.9%35.5%
6f9928.3%29.2%37.4%34.3%34.3%36.5%26.4%30.7%27.7%
7f10527.6%29.6%31.4%34.0%41.0%36.3%29.0%26.3%30.0%
1m7226.4%29.3%34.7%34.2%38.9%36.5%25.0%35.1%28.2%
1m2f4242.9%28.8%16.7%34.4%40.5%36.8%33.3%28.6%30.5%
1m4f4032.5%29.4%30.0%34.0%37.5%36.6%30.6%30.4%28.2%

Flat races at Chepstow with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Chepstow draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low44629.6%29.3%9.8%1,34313228.9%
Middle44631.2%34.2%9.0%1,54313929.7%
High44639.2%36.5%10.6%1,65317530.0%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Chepstow draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances75028.4%28.8%29.3%33.4%42.4%37.8%
5f14626.7%28.4%29.5%33.6%44.5%38.0%
6f15529.0%28.9%34.8%33.6%36.1%37.5%
7f17925.7%28.8%29.1%33.0%45.3%38.2%
1m11323.0%28.9%30.1%33.5%46.9%37.6%
1m2f7342.5%28.7%20.5%33.8%37.0%37.5%
1m4f5933.9%28.5%25.4%33.6%40.7%37.9%
2m2425.0%29.5%29.2%32.9%45.8%37.7%

Every Flat race at Chepstow with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Chepstow draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances30426.6%28.0%26.6%32.2%47.0%39.8%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances33328.2%28.5%31.8%34.6%39.9%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances10534.3%31.6%29.5%33.0%36.2%35.4%
3 to 7 runners5f7726.0%28.0%28.6%32.6%46.8%39.4%
8 to 11 runners5f6124.6%28.6%32.8%34.8%42.6%36.6%
3 to 7 runners6f5630.4%28.4%30.4%32.3%39.3%39.3%
8 to 11 runners6f6726.9%28.2%35.8%34.8%37.3%37.0%
12 to 15 runners6f2931.0%31.5%41.4%33.2%27.6%35.3%
3 to 7 runners7f7423.0%27.7%25.7%31.4%51.4%40.9%
8 to 11 runners7f7326.0%28.9%32.9%34.5%41.1%36.6%
12 to 15 runners7f2934.5%31.5%27.6%32.9%37.9%35.6%
3 to 7 runners1m4117.1%28.4%22.0%32.3%61.0%39.4%
8 to 11 runners1m5427.8%28.5%35.2%34.5%37.0%37.0%
3 to 7 runners1m2f3141.9%28.4%25.8%33.0%32.3%38.6%
8 to 11 runners1m2f3336.4%28.0%18.2%34.9%45.5%37.0%
8 to 11 runners1m4f3036.7%28.6%33.3%34.6%30.0%36.9%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Chepstow draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances12326.8%29.0%39.8%36.7%33.3%
GoodAll distances18230.2%29.4%42.3%36.5%27.5%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances8432.1%29.8%31.0%36.0%36.9%
SoftAll distances5729.8%29.0%40.4%36.4%29.8%
Good5f2722.2%28.6%48.1%36.6%29.6%
Good to firm or firmer6f3330.3%28.7%36.4%36.8%33.3%
Good6f3531.4%29.9%28.6%36.1%40.0%
Good to firm or firmer7f2516.0%29.6%40.0%37.1%44.0%
Good7f4327.9%29.6%53.5%36.0%18.6%
Good to soft or yielding7f2236.4%30.5%22.7%35.9%40.9%
Good to firm or firmer1m2231.8%29.3%40.9%36.2%27.3%
Good1m2825.0%29.3%35.7%37.4%39.3%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Chepstow individual stalls, most-run distances

7f310066.0%9.9%28.0%
7f41001212.0%9.8%24.0%
7f610465.8%9.8%29.8%
7f71001212.0%9.8%33.0%
7f8101109.9%9.8%28.7%

The two most-run distances at Chepstow in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Chepstow 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 23%Since 2016 Middle: 31.8%Since 2016 High: 45.3%Since 2024 Low: 31.3%Since 2024 Middle: 31.3%Since 2024 High: 37.5%Expected by chance Low: 29.7%Expected by chance Middle: 34%Expected by chance High: 36.3%

Win % of races by Draw third

Chepstow 7f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 3Stall 4Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Win % Stall 3: 6%6%Win % Stall 4: 12%12%Win % Stall 6: 5.8%5.8%Win % Stall 7: 12%12%Win % Stall 8: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.8%9.8%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Chepstow and their draw

31 Aug 26Zambezi Magic (GB) silksZambezi Magic (GB)2Low51m2f21.00
31 Aug 26Level Up (IRE) silksLevel Up (IRE)1Low75f3.50
31 Aug 26Thanos (GB) silksThanos (GB)17High161m6.00
31 Aug 26A Rose Adaay (GB) silksA Rose Adaay (GB)11High117f3.50
31 Aug 26Prince Ali (GB) silksPrince Ali (GB)8High117f11.00
31 Aug 26Kodicall (IRE) silksKodicall (IRE)4High46f13.00
31 Aug 26Washington Royale (GB) silksWashington Royale (GB)6High66f3.00
31 Aug 26Naval Cop (GB) silksNaval Cop (GB)5High55f12.00
29 Aug 26Elora Prince (IRE) silksElora Prince (IRE)4Middle61m2f6.00
29 Aug 26Heart Sign (GB) silksHeart Sign (GB)4Middle81m4f17.00
29 Aug 26Emery Down (GB) silksEmery Down (GB)4Middle87f3.75
29 Aug 26Absolute Diamond (IRE) silksAbsolute Diamond (IRE)2Low97f11.00
29 Aug 26Midgham Man (GB) silksMidgham Man (GB)2Middle57f1.62
29 Aug 26Pj's Corner (GB) silksPj's Corner (GB)5Middle65f4.00
29 Aug 26Minster Man (IRE) silksMinster Man (IRE)1Low35f1.40
18 Aug 26Arnaz (GB) silksArnaz (GB)8High106f2.20
18 Aug 26Too Much Trevor (GB) silksToo Much Trevor (GB)6High77f10.00
18 Aug 26Rating (IRE) silksRating (IRE)2Low81m4.50
18 Aug 26Avionics (IRE) silksAvionics (IRE)5High57f7.50
18 Aug 26Impulsive Spirit (IRE) silksImpulsive Spirit (IRE)3Middle85f15.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Chepstow in the data with a full draw.

Chepstow win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m2f1m4fLow third 5f: 27.5%Low third 6f: 28.3%Low third 7f: 27.6%Low third 1m: 26.4%Low third 1m2f: 42.9%Low third 1m4f: 32.5%Middle third 5f: 30.4%Middle third 6f: 37.4%Middle third 7f: 31.4%Middle third 1m: 34.7%Middle third 1m2f: 16.7%Middle third 1m4f: 30%High third 5f: 42%High third 6f: 34.3%High third 7f: 41%High third 1m: 38.9%High third 1m2f: 40.5%High third 1m4f: 37.5%

Win % of races by Distance

Chepstow win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 29.5%Low third 2020: 31.6%Low third 2021: 23.4%Low third 2022: 24.1%Low third 2023: 31.4%Low third 2024: 33.3%Low third 2025: 32.7%Low third 2026: 30%30%Middle third 2019: 33.3%Middle third 2020: 26.3%Middle third 2021: 21.3%Middle third 2022: 31.5%Middle third 2023: 39.2%Middle third 2024: 35.4%Middle third 2025: 32.7%Middle third 2026: 30%30%High third 2019: 37.2%High third 2020: 42.1%High third 2021: 55.3%High third 2022: 44.4%High third 2023: 29.4%High third 2024: 31.3%High third 2025: 34.6%High third 2026: 40%40%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Chepstow?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Chepstow, the draw rates weak or none from 148 races. It stands out most over 7f, where the high third has won 45.3% against 36.3% by chance (rated weak or none).

Has one side done better on the Chepstow straight?

The straight course trips from 5f to a mile each have a row in the distance table below. The page measures thirds by stall number, so check where the stalls are placed on the day before reading low or high as a rail.

How do going and field size change the draw at Chepstow?

The bias matrix gives every Chepstow trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Chepstow draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads too few recent races, from 32 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Chepstow?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Chepstow, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 23% of 148 races against 29.7% by chance. It stands out most over 7f, where the high third has won 45.3% against 36.3% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Chepstow over 5f?

Stall 9 has the best top-three record over 5f at Chepstow since 2016, placing in 41% of 61 runs against 31.5% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Chepstow?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.2% of Chepstow races against 29.4% by chance, and high draws 40.6% against 36.5%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

How many Chepstow Flat races go into these figures?

Chepstow is better known for jumping, but it stages summer Flat cards, and the race count on each row shows the sample. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden rather than shown on thin numbers.

How often are the Chepstow draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseChepstow course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseChepstow racecardsThe next meeting's full cardBath draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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