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Killarney draw bias: summer Flat races in Kerry

At Killarney over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (194 races), middle draws 37.6% and high draws 29.4%, against 30.3%, 33.8% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Killarney declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 5 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m
Trip where the draw stands out most
337
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 37.6% v 33.8%

At Killarney over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (194 races), middle draws 37.6% and high draws 29.4%, against 30.3%, 33.8% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 194 races · Window: 17 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Killarney draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3373,83334.4%30.3%35.6%33.8%30.0%35.9%26.6%27.7%24.9%26.4%Low +4.1 pts0.062Weak or none
1mAll goingAll field sizes1942,22133.0%30.3%37.6%33.8%29.4%35.9%26.5%28.8%23.5%26.2%Middle +3.8 pts0.166Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes901,05232.2%30.7%37.8%33.6%30.0%35.7%27.0%27.5%22.8%25.7%Middle +4.2 pts0.512Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes1011,14033.7%29.9%37.6%34.0%28.7%36.1%26.5%29.5%23.9%26.6%Low +3.8 pts0.298Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners10195034.7%28.9%36.6%34.2%28.7%36.9%31.6%36.7%27.6%31.9%Low +5.8 pts0.204Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners931,27131.2%31.8%38.7%33.4%30.1%34.8%23.0%22.8%20.1%22.0%Middle +5.3 pts0.500Weak or none
1mGood8 to 11 runners4340127.9%29.3%37.2%33.8%34.9%36.8%31.4%36.3%29.1%32.2%Middle +3.4 pts0.895Weak or none
1mGood12 to 15 runners4765136.2%31.9%38.3%33.5%25.5%34.6%24.5%22.0%18.7%21.7%Middle +4.8 pts0.425Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5552040.0%28.4%36.4%34.5%23.6%37.1%33.1%36.3%26.4%31.7%Low +11.6 pts0.069Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners4662026.1%31.6%39.1%33.3%34.8%35.0%21.4%23.7%21.7%22.3%Middle +5.8 pts0.634Weak or none
1m3fAll goingAll field sizes5967432.2%30.2%30.5%33.6%37.3%36.2%22.9%28.3%27.2%26.3%Low +2.0 pts0.873Weak or none
1m3fGoodAll field sizes2124742.9%29.7%33.3%33.8%23.8%36.6%28.4%28.9%20.0%25.5%Low +13.2 pts0.339Not enough data
1m3fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3741827.0%30.4%29.7%33.6%43.2%36.1%19.5%28.6%30.7%26.6%High +7.1 pts0.662Not enough data
1m3fAll going8 to 11 runners3230131.3%29.2%28.1%34.0%40.6%36.8%28.4%34.3%32.4%31.9%High +3.8 pts0.779Not enough data
1m3fAll going12 to 15 runners2737333.3%31.3%33.3%33.2%33.3%35.5%18.8%23.4%22.7%21.7%Low +2.0 pts0.966Not enough data
1m3fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2119728.6%29.4%28.6%33.6%42.9%37.0%24.1%36.4%34.2%32.0%High +5.9 pts0.835Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes3337836.4%30.1%36.4%33.9%27.3%36.0%28.9%22.7%27.2%26.2%Low +6.3 pts0.554Not enough data
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2023040.0%30.0%30.0%33.9%30.0%36.1%31.9%19.2%27.7%26.1%Low +10.0 pts0.620Not enough data

Flat races at Killarney with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 17 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Killarney draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances33734.4%35.6%30.0%30.3%33.8%35.9%Weak or none8739.1%32.2%28.7%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m19433.0%37.6%29.4%30.3%33.8%35.9%Weak or none5236.5%36.5%26.9%Weak or noneHolding
1m3f5932.2%30.5%37.3%30.2%33.6%36.2%Weak or none650.0%16.7%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f3336.4%36.4%27.3%30.1%33.9%36.0%Not enough data20.0%50.0%50.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Killarney stall by stall at each distance

1m11742112.1%9.2%31.6%27.6%+4.1
1m21742011.5%9.2%24.7%27.6%-2.9
1m31741810.3%9.1%28.7%27.3%+1.4
1m4167148.4%9.1%32.3%27.3%+5.0
1m5164116.7%9.2%26.2%27.5%-1.3
1m61722011.6%9.2%30.8%27.7%+3.2
1m7180137.2%9.2%29.4%27.5%+2.0
1m8175137.4%9.1%25.1%27.2%-2.1
1m9160116.9%8.9%21.3%26.6%-5.4
1m10144128.3%8.6%21.5%25.9%-4.4
1m11120119.2%8.2%25.0%24.5%+0.5
1m1210099.0%7.8%26.0%23.4%+2.6
1m139266.5%7.6%16.3%22.7%-6.4
1m147733.9%7.5%19.5%22.4%-2.9
1m156469.4%7.2%25.0%21.6%+3.4

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Killarney draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances26234.7%30.3%35.1%33.8%30.2%35.9%26.4%27.7%25.4%
1m15334.0%30.2%35.9%33.8%30.1%36.0%26.6%28.7%24.1%
1m3f4332.6%30.3%32.6%33.8%34.9%35.9%21.5%29.1%28.0%
1m6f2433.3%30.1%41.7%34.2%25.0%35.7%25.6%25.8%27.8%

Flat races at Killarney with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Killarney draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low26234.7%30.3%10.0%9069126.4%
Middle26235.1%33.8%9.2%1,0029227.7%
High26230.2%35.9%7.5%1,0607925.4%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Killarney draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances34932.1%29.6%36.7%33.7%31.2%36.7%
1m20130.8%29.6%39.3%33.7%29.9%36.6%
1m3f6131.1%29.3%31.1%33.5%37.7%37.2%
1m3½f2025.0%29.7%35.0%33.5%40.0%36.8%
1m6f3231.3%29.1%43.8%34.1%25.0%36.8%
2m1f2236.4%29.4%27.3%34.0%36.4%36.6%

Every Flat race at Killarney with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Killarney draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances8724.1%27.4%41.4%33.2%34.5%39.4%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances14136.9%29.1%31.9%34.2%31.2%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances12132.2%31.6%38.8%33.5%28.9%34.9%
3 to 7 runners1m4820.8%27.7%50.0%33.5%29.2%38.8%
8 to 11 runners1m8234.1%28.9%35.4%34.1%30.5%36.9%
12 to 15 runners1m7133.8%31.8%36.6%33.4%29.6%34.8%
8 to 11 runners1m3f2330.4%29.4%34.8%34.2%34.8%36.4%
12 to 15 runners1m3f2035.0%31.3%30.0%33.4%35.0%35.3%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Killarney draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances11538.3%30.5%27.0%35.6%34.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances6031.7%30.0%21.7%35.8%46.7%
SoftAll distances6728.4%30.1%43.3%36.3%28.4%
Good1m6933.3%30.4%29.0%35.8%37.7%
Good to soft or yielding1m3537.1%30.3%20.0%35.9%42.9%
Soft1m3528.6%30.0%42.9%36.5%28.6%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Killarney individual stalls, most-run distances

1m11341813.4%9.3%32.8%
1m21341813.4%9.3%26.9%
1m3135139.6%9.2%28.1%
1m4127118.7%9.2%28.3%
1m512564.8%9.2%27.2%
1m61331511.3%9.3%30.8%
1m7139107.2%9.2%30.9%
1m8138118.0%9.1%26.8%
1m912575.6%9.0%18.4%
1m1011597.8%8.8%20.0%

The two most-run distances at Killarney in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Killarney 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 33%Since 2016 Middle: 37.6%Since 2016 High: 29.4%Since 2024 Low: 36.5%Since 2024 Middle: 36.5%Since 2024 High: 26.9%Expected by chance Low: 30.3%Expected by chance Middle: 33.8%Expected by chance High: 35.9%

Win % of races by Draw third

Killarney 1m win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Win % Stall 1: 13.4%13.4%Win % Stall 2: 13.4%13.4%Win % Stall 3: 9.6%9.6%Win % Stall 4: 8.7%8.7%Win % Stall 5: 4.8%4.8%Win % Stall 6: 11.3%11.3%Win % Stall 7: 7.2%7.2%Win % Stall 8: 8%8%Win % Stall 9: 5.6%5.6%Win % Stall 10: 7.8%7.8%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9%9%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8.8%8.8%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Killarney and their draw

5 Oct 26Ballybawn Belter (IRE) silksBallybawn Belter (IRE)7Middle71m3f5.00
5 Oct 26Shay's Dream (IRE) silksShay's Dream (IRE)3Low121m3f6.00
5 Oct 26Cailin Miorruilach (IRE) silksCailin Miorruilach (IRE)7High71m3f13.00
5 Oct 26Shaihaan (IRE) silksShaihaan (IRE)10High81m3f4.00
5 Oct 26Jasmine Affanalis (IRE) silksJasmine Affanalis (IRE)5Low151m5.50
5 Oct 26Suir Monad (IRE) silksSuir Monad (IRE)9High101m3.12
5 Oct 26Xirivella (IRE) silksXirivella (IRE)6Middle91m21.00
5 Oct 26Coastal Wonder (IRE) silksCoastal Wonder (IRE)2Low121m4.00
21 Aug 26Ragmans Corner (IRE) silksRagmans Corner (IRE)6High82m1f2.10
21 Aug 26Trubshaw (GB) silksTrubshaw (GB)4Low91m6½f8.00
21 Aug 26Gaoth Chuil (IRE) silksGaoth Chuil (IRE)3Low101m6½f13.00
21 Aug 26Only One Scobie (IRE) silksOnly One Scobie (IRE)10High91m51.00
21 Aug 26Jagged Edge (IRE) silksJagged Edge (IRE)2Low101m4.50
21 Aug 26Manton Bay (IRE) silksManton Bay (IRE)7High81m2.62
21 Aug 26Seaxburh (IRE) silksSeaxburh (IRE)6Middle61m4.00
15 Jul 26Loyal Touch (IRE) silksLoyal Touch (IRE)1Low111m6½f9.50
15 Jul 26Arch Enemy (IRE) silksArch Enemy (IRE)11High151m3½f4.00
15 Jul 26Bella Colombia (IRE) silksBella Colombia (IRE)1Low131m3.12
15 Jul 26Meriden (GB) silksMeriden (GB)4Middle101m6.50
15 Jul 26Kalir (IRE) silksKalir (IRE)10High91m4.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Killarney in the data with a full draw.

Killarney win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%1m1m3f1m6fLow third 1m: 34%Low third 1m3f: 32.6%Low third 1m6f: 33.3%Middle third 1m: 35.9%Middle third 1m3f: 32.6%Middle third 1m6f: 41.7%High third 1m: 30.1%High third 1m3f: 34.9%High third 1m6f: 25%

Win % of races by Distance

Killarney win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 35.7%Low third 2020: 37.5%Low third 2021: 32.5%Low third 2022: 30%Low third 2023: 28.6%Low third 2024: 37.9%Low third 2025: 37%Low third 2026: 41.9%41.9%Middle third 2019: 35.7%Middle third 2020: 28.1%Middle third 2021: 30%Middle third 2022: 40%Middle third 2023: 48.6%Middle third 2024: 34.5%Middle third 2025: 40.7%Middle third 2026: 22.6%22.6%High third 2019: 28.6%High third 2020: 34.4%High third 2021: 37.5%High third 2022: 30%High third 2023: 22.9%High third 2024: 27.6%High third 2025: 22.2%High third 2026: 35.5%35.5%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Killarney?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Killarney, the draw rates weak or none from 194 races. It stands out most over 1m, where the middle third has won 37.6% against 33.8% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is a low draw important on Killarney's tight bends?

Across all distances pooled, the low third at Killarney has run slightly above its expected share and the high third below it. The mile row carries most of the sample.

How do going and field size change the draw at Killarney?

The bias matrix gives every Killarney trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Killarney draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads holding, from 52 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Killarney?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Killarney, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 33% of 194 races against 30.3% by chance. It stands out most over 1m, where the middle third has won 37.6% against 33.8% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Killarney over 1m?

Stall 4 has the best top-three record over 1m at Killarney since 2016, placing in 32.3% of 167 runs against 26.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Killarney?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 34.4% of Killarney races against 30.3% by chance, and high draws 30% against 35.9%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

How many Killarney Flat races have 8 or more runners?

Killarney has 262 Flat races of 8 or more runners since 2019, most of them over a mile. The other trips have thin samples, so several rows are hidden.

How often are the Killarney draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseKillarney course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseKillarney racecardsThe next meeting's full cardListowel draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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