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Epsom draw bias: Tattenham Corner and the camber

At Epsom over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (105 races), middle draws 36.2% and high draws 34.3%, against 28.8%, 34.6% and 36.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Epsom declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 27 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m4f
Trip where the draw stands out most
396
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 36.2% v 34.6%

At Epsom over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (105 races), middle draws 36.2% and high draws 34.3%, against 28.8%, 34.6% and 36.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 105 races · Window: 20 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Epsom draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3964,10329.3%29.2%35.1%34.3%35.9%36.6%27.4%29.3%29.9%29.0%Middle +0.8 pts0.937Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes2334321.7%30.1%34.8%33.3%43.5%36.7%17.3%18.4%24.0%20.1%High +6.8 pts0.658Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes3134029.0%29.0%35.5%34.4%35.5%36.5%24.0%26.7%30.6%27.4%Middle +1.1 pts0.990Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1051,00529.5%28.8%36.2%34.6%34.3%36.6%30.0%32.2%31.6%31.3%Middle +1.6 pts0.882Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2522720.0%28.4%32.0%35.4%48.0%36.2%30.8%30.0%37.8%33.0%High +11.8 pts0.435Not enough data
7fGoodAll field sizes5048232.0%28.7%36.0%34.4%32.0%36.8%32.9%31.5%29.4%31.1%Low +3.3 pts0.763Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3029633.3%29.4%40.0%34.1%26.7%36.5%25.0%35.0%30.6%30.4%Middle +5.9 pts0.530Not enough data
7fAll going8 to 11 runners8878327.3%28.3%36.4%34.7%36.4%37.0%31.8%35.2%33.8%33.7%Middle +1.7 pts0.947Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2320117.4%28.2%30.4%35.5%52.2%36.4%31.6%28.2%42.5%34.3%High +15.8 pts0.260Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners4237731.0%28.2%40.5%34.5%28.6%37.3%33.6%36.4%30.5%33.4%Middle +6.0 pts0.492Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2320530.4%28.6%34.8%34.4%34.8%37.0%28.8%40.0%31.6%33.7%Low +1.8 pts0.971Not enough data
1m½fAll goingAll field sizes7875529.5%29.1%28.2%34.3%42.3%36.6%32.3%29.6%31.3%31.0%High +5.7 pts0.461Weak or none
1m½fGoodAll field sizes4645128.3%29.2%30.4%34.1%41.3%36.7%29.3%28.8%33.3%30.6%High +4.6 pts0.793Weak or none
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2221227.3%29.2%27.3%34.3%45.5%36.6%36.5%29.2%28.6%31.1%High +8.9 pts0.664Not enough data
1m½fAll going8 to 11 runners6457029.7%28.4%23.4%34.5%46.9%37.1%36.2%30.8%34.4%33.7%High +9.8 pts0.140Weak or none
1m½fGood8 to 11 runners3733527.0%28.5%27.0%34.3%45.9%37.3%34.4%29.8%35.2%33.1%High +8.6 pts0.510Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes6866638.2%28.9%27.9%34.5%35.3%36.6%28.9%30.3%32.4%30.6%Low +9.3 pts0.229Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes3634238.9%28.1%27.8%35.0%36.1%36.9%26.8%30.3%36.5%31.6%Low +10.8 pts0.360Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2122142.9%30.7%23.8%33.6%33.3%35.6%27.9%28.4%29.1%28.5%Low +12.2 pts0.440Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners5751838.6%28.4%33.3%34.9%29.8%36.7%31.8%33.3%33.7%33.0%Low +10.2 pts0.242Weak or none
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners3127638.7%27.7%32.3%35.3%32.3%37.0%29.9%33.0%37.3%33.7%Low +11.0 pts0.445Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes9199424.2%29.6%45.1%34.0%30.8%36.4%24.7%30.3%27.1%27.5%Middle +11.1 pts0.084Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes4953924.5%29.5%42.9%33.8%32.7%36.7%23.1%29.1%28.9%27.3%Middle +9.1 pts0.406Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3336424.2%30.2%51.5%33.9%24.2%35.9%26.4%33.3%22.1%27.2%Middle +17.6 pts0.096Not enough data
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners6258529.0%29.0%43.5%34.3%27.4%36.7%30.6%34.5%30.2%31.8%Middle +9.2 pts0.222Weak or none
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2127414.3%30.8%52.4%33.5%33.3%35.7%16.7%28.3%23.5%23.0%Middle +18.9 pts0.127Not enough data
1m4fGood8 to 11 runners3533628.6%28.8%40.0%34.0%31.4%37.2%27.8%33.3%32.0%31.2%Middle +6.0 pts0.712Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2119728.6%30.0%52.4%34.1%19.0%36.0%35.6%37.3%23.9%32.0%Middle +18.3 pts0.153Not enough data

Flat races at Epsom with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 20 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Epsom draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances39629.3%35.1%35.9%29.2%34.3%36.6%Weak or none12328.5%40.7%30.9%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f2321.7%34.8%43.5%30.1%33.3%36.7%Not enough data812.5%62.5%25.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f3129.0%35.5%35.5%29.0%34.4%36.5%Not enough data933.3%33.3%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f10529.5%36.2%34.3%28.8%34.6%36.6%Weak or none3234.4%37.5%28.1%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m½f7829.5%28.2%42.3%29.1%34.3%36.6%Weak or none2619.2%26.9%53.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f6838.2%27.9%35.3%28.9%34.5%36.6%Weak or none2035.0%35.0%30.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f9124.2%45.1%30.8%29.6%34.0%36.4%Weak or none2828.6%57.1%14.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Epsom stall by stall at each distance

7f110287.8%10.8%23.5%32.5%-8.9
7f21031312.6%10.8%35.9%32.3%+3.6
7f39977.1%10.7%32.3%32.2%+0.1
7f41031413.6%10.8%34.0%32.3%+1.7
7f51031110.7%10.8%31.1%32.4%-1.3
7f6991818.2%10.7%40.4%32.2%+8.2
7f7981515.3%10.7%33.7%32.2%+1.5
7f89966.1%10.8%32.3%32.4%-0.1
7f97422.7%10.1%20.3%30.2%-10.0
7f1052713.5%9.4%34.6%28.2%+6.4
1m½f1761013.2%10.6%39.5%31.9%+7.5
1m½f27867.7%10.7%25.6%32.1%-6.4
1m½f375810.7%10.7%37.3%32.0%+5.4
1m½f47745.2%10.7%27.3%32.1%-4.8
1m½f57767.8%10.7%27.3%32.1%-4.8
1m½f677810.4%10.7%27.3%32.0%-4.7
1m½f7741621.6%10.7%44.6%32.0%+12.6
1m½f875912.0%10.7%30.7%32.1%-1.4
1m½f95547.3%9.9%38.2%29.8%+8.4
1m2f1671014.9%10.6%22.4%31.8%-9.4
1m2f2641218.8%10.5%34.4%31.5%+2.9
1m2f36657.6%10.5%36.4%31.6%+4.7
1m2f46569.2%10.6%30.8%31.9%-1.2
1m2f56334.8%10.5%28.6%31.6%-3.0
1m2f666913.6%10.5%39.4%31.6%+7.8
1m2f759711.9%10.5%30.5%31.5%-1.0
1m2f86357.9%10.5%36.5%31.5%+5.0
1m2f95347.5%10.1%28.3%30.2%-1.9
1m4f18489.5%9.6%26.2%28.7%-2.5
1m4f28889.1%9.5%28.4%28.6%-0.2
1m4f38689.3%9.7%26.7%29.1%-2.3
1m4f48844.5%9.6%28.4%28.8%-0.4
1m4f5851618.8%9.6%35.3%28.9%+6.4
1m4f68678.1%9.6%29.1%28.7%+0.4
1m4f78367.2%9.6%24.1%28.8%-4.7
1m4f88844.5%9.6%23.9%28.7%-4.9
1m4f9781012.8%9.3%29.5%27.9%+1.6
1m4f1063812.7%8.8%30.2%26.4%+3.8

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Epsom draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances27828.1%29.2%36.0%34.2%36.0%36.5%27.0%29.5%29.7%
7f7731.2%28.8%33.8%34.6%35.1%36.6%28.5%32.9%32.5%
1m½f5527.3%29.2%29.1%34.2%43.6%36.7%32.3%30.4%30.3%
1m2f4632.6%29.5%32.6%34.1%34.8%36.4%27.4%32.5%30.7%
1m4f6524.6%29.3%46.2%34.1%29.2%36.6%25.6%28.0%28.0%

Flat races at Epsom with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Epsom draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low27828.1%29.2%9.1%8547827.0%
Middle27836.0%34.2%10.2%98210029.5%
High27836.0%36.5%9.5%1,05310029.7%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Epsom draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances50728.6%28.9%34.5%33.3%36.9%37.8%
6f4436.4%28.5%27.3%33.5%36.4%37.9%
7f15228.3%28.9%34.9%33.1%36.8%38.0%
1m½f9931.3%29.3%29.3%33.1%39.4%37.7%
1m2f9429.8%28.9%29.8%33.1%40.4%38.0%
1m4f10024.0%28.7%44.0%33.8%32.0%37.5%

Every Flat race at Epsom with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Epsom draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances22929.3%28.6%32.8%32.2%38.0%39.3%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances20428.9%28.5%35.3%34.6%35.8%36.9%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances5827.6%31.3%34.5%33.5%37.9%35.2%
3 to 7 runners6f2642.3%27.7%26.9%33.1%30.8%39.2%
3 to 7 runners7f7525.3%29.0%36.0%31.6%38.7%39.4%
8 to 11 runners7f6429.7%28.1%32.8%34.8%37.5%37.1%
3 to 7 runners1m½f4436.4%29.4%29.5%31.7%34.1%39.0%
8 to 11 runners1m½f4628.3%28.5%23.9%34.3%47.8%37.2%
3 to 7 runners1m2f4827.1%28.4%27.1%32.1%45.8%39.5%
8 to 11 runners1m2f3732.4%29.0%40.5%34.7%27.0%36.3%
3 to 7 runners1m4f3522.9%27.5%40.0%33.2%37.1%39.3%
8 to 11 runners1m4f4327.9%28.7%46.5%34.4%25.6%37.0%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Epsom draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances5520.0%28.5%47.3%36.3%32.7%
GoodAll distances13330.1%29.1%33.1%36.8%36.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances4740.4%30.0%31.9%36.3%27.7%
SoftAll distances3318.2%29.9%33.3%36.5%48.5%
Good to firm or firmer7f2114.3%28.2%52.4%35.9%33.3%
Good7f3540.0%28.8%28.6%37.0%31.4%
Good1m½f3026.7%29.1%43.3%36.7%30.0%
Good1m2f2222.7%29.0%36.4%36.6%40.9%
Good1m4f3429.4%29.0%26.5%36.8%44.1%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Epsom 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 29.5%Since 2016 Middle: 36.2%Since 2016 High: 34.3%Since 2024 Low: 34.4%Since 2024 Middle: 37.5%Since 2024 High: 28.1%Expected by chance Low: 28.8%Expected by chance Middle: 34.6%Expected by chance High: 36.6%

Win % of races by Draw third

Epsom win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%7f1m½f1m2f1m4fLow third 7f: 31.2%Low third 1m½f: 27.3%Low third 1m2f: 32.6%Low third 1m4f: 24.6%Middle third 7f: 33.8%Middle third 1m½f: 29.1%Middle third 1m2f: 32.6%Middle third 1m4f: 46.2%High third 7f: 35.1%High third 1m½f: 43.6%High third 1m2f: 34.8%High third 1m4f: 29.2%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Epsom and their draw

27 Sep 26Eazy On The Eye (GB) silksEazy On The Eye (GB)6Middle107f4.50
27 Sep 26Swiped (GB) silksSwiped (GB)7High81m½f4.33
27 Sep 26Matins (GB) silksMatins (GB)2Middle51m2f1.57
27 Sep 26Zarakerjack (FR) silksZarakerjack (FR)7Middle131m4f13.00
27 Sep 26Blue Noon (IRE) silksBlue Noon (IRE)2Low61m2f2.62
27 Sep 26Quite Cheeky (IRE) silksQuite Cheeky (IRE)1Low51m½f4.50
27 Sep 26Rogue Imperial (GB) silksRogue Imperial (GB)5Middle77f11.00
10 Sep 26Marsh Benham (IRE) silksMarsh Benham (IRE)6Middle91m½f11.00
10 Sep 26Likeness (IRE) silksLikeness (IRE)9High101m½f26.00
10 Sep 26Time To Sparkle (GB) silksTime To Sparkle (GB)9Middle141m4f6.50
10 Sep 26Duc De Kent (FR) silksDuc De Kent (FR)4Middle61m4f23.00
10 Sep 26Carnival Day (IRE) silksCarnival Day (IRE)1Low91m2f3.50
10 Sep 26Dapper Guest (IRE) silksDapper Guest (IRE)7High97f10.00
10 Sep 26Quite Cheeky (IRE) silksQuite Cheeky (IRE)5Middle107f8.00
31 Aug 26Dapper Guest (IRE) silksDapper Guest (IRE)4Middle67f5.50
31 Aug 26Tronido (GB) silksTronido (GB)7High81m½f13.00
31 Aug 26Hello Cotai (IRE) silksHello Cotai (IRE)6Middle91m2f15.00
31 Aug 26Seeking Charles (FR) silksSeeking Charles (FR)6Middle141m4f13.00
31 Aug 26Aurora Majesty (IRE) silksAurora Majesty (IRE)2Low87f4.50
31 Aug 26Summer Triangle (GB) silksSummer Triangle (GB)1Low87f2.38

The 20 most recent Flat races at Epsom in the data with a full draw.

Epsom win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%2019202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 26.5%Low third 2021: 34.3%Low third 2022: 36.6%Low third 2023: 17.1%Low third 2024: 35%Low third 2025: 33.3%Low third 2026: 18.2%18.2%Middle third 2019: 38.2%Middle third 2021: 31.4%Middle third 2022: 19.5%Middle third 2023: 39%Middle third 2024: 35%Middle third 2025: 43.6%Middle third 2026: 43.2%43.2%High third 2019: 35.3%High third 2021: 34.3%High third 2022: 43.9%High third 2023: 43.9%High third 2024: 30%High third 2025: 23.1%High third 2026: 38.6%38.6%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Epsom?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Epsom, the draw rates weak or none from 105 races. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the middle third has won 45.1% against 34% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is a low draw important in the Derby?

The Derby is run over 1m4f, and the 1m4f row in the distance table covers every Epsom race at that trip with 8 or more runners. Epsom stages fewer races than most Flat courses, so read the race count first.

How do going and field size change the draw at Epsom?

The bias matrix gives every Epsom trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Epsom draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads too few recent races, from 32 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Epsom?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Epsom, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 29.5% of 105 races against 28.8% by chance. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the middle third has won 45.1% against 34% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Epsom over 7f?

Stall 6 has the best top-three record over 7f at Epsom since 2016, placing in 40.4% of 99 runs against 31.3% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Epsom?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.3% of Epsom races against 29.2% by chance, and high draws 35.9% against 36.6%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Why are some Epsom trips missing from the table?

Epsom stages fewer Flat races than most courses, so trips with fewer than 20 races are hidden rather than shown on a thin sample. The 5f course is one of them, so its races count in the pooled figure but have no row of their own.

How often are the Epsom draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseEpsom course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseEpsom racecardsThe next meeting's full cardDerby Festival At EpsomFestival results and recordsDerby roll of honourPast winners of the race

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