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Bellewstown draw bias: the summer festival Flat races

At Bellewstown over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 39.2% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (148 races), middle draws 27% and high draws 33.8%, against 30.7%, 33.7% and 35.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Bellewstown declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 1 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m
Trip where the draw stands out most
322
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 39.2% v 30.7%

At Bellewstown over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 39.2% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (148 races), middle draws 27.0% and high draws 33.8%, against 30.7%, 33.7% and 35.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 148 races · Window: 30 June 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Bellewstown draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3223,83337.6%30.4%27.6%33.7%35.1%35.9%26.9%23.5%25.5%25.2%Low +7.2 pts0.010Moderate
5fAll goingAll field sizes7074632.9%29.7%35.7%33.9%32.9%36.4%25.3%28.7%30.0%28.2%Low +3.2 pts0.765Weak or none
5fGoodAll field sizes4648230.4%29.2%43.5%34.1%28.3%36.7%25.2%30.7%29.5%28.6%Middle +9.4 pts0.352Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2224031.8%30.5%22.7%33.4%45.5%36.1%21.6%27.5%32.6%27.5%High +9.4 pts0.521Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners4540731.1%28.6%37.8%34.4%33.3%37.0%29.1%33.8%35.8%33.2%Middle +3.4 pts0.811Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners2533936.0%31.9%32.0%33.0%32.0%35.2%21.3%22.3%22.7%22.1%Low +4.1 pts0.899Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners3228928.1%28.2%43.8%34.8%31.3%37.0%30.5%35.0%33.6%33.2%Middle +9.0 pts0.600Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1481,83739.2%30.7%27.0%33.7%33.8%35.6%27.4%21.7%23.7%24.2%Low +8.5 pts0.062Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes891,13836.0%31.1%33.7%33.6%30.3%35.2%26.3%22.8%21.6%23.5%Low +4.9 pts0.530Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5363843.4%30.4%13.2%33.6%43.4%36.0%27.7%18.7%28.4%24.9%Low +13.0 pts0.006Moderate
1mAll going8 to 11 runners5451040.7%29.0%35.2%34.4%24.1%36.6%35.1%34.3%26.7%31.8%Low +11.7 pts0.086Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners901,26337.8%31.7%21.1%33.4%41.1%34.9%25.2%16.6%22.5%21.4%High +6.2 pts0.048Moderate
1mGood8 to 11 runners2826625.0%29.3%50.0%34.3%25.0%36.4%32.1%40.7%22.7%31.6%Middle +15.7 pts0.202Not enough data
1mGood12 to 15 runners5882439.7%32.0%25.9%33.5%34.5%34.5%25.0%17.4%21.1%21.1%Low +7.7 pts0.356Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2119957.1%29.1%14.3%34.3%28.6%36.6%32.8%26.5%35.6%31.7%Low +28.0 pts0.014Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3243934.4%31.2%12.5%33.2%53.1%35.6%25.5%15.1%25.0%21.9%High +17.5 pts0.030Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes4756838.3%30.2%23.4%33.9%38.3%35.9%28.9%20.9%25.5%24.8%Low +8.1 pts0.271Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes3036053.3%30.1%23.3%34.0%23.3%35.8%29.4%22.1%24.0%25.0%Low +23.2 pts0.022Not enough data
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2229254.5%31.3%13.6%33.8%31.8%34.9%29.7%16.2%23.5%22.6%Low +23.2 pts0.038Not enough data

Flat races at Bellewstown with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 30 June 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Bellewstown draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances32237.6%27.6%35.1%30.4%33.7%35.9%Moderate10336.9%28.2%35.0%Weak or noneHolding
5f7032.9%35.7%32.9%29.7%33.9%36.4%Weak or none2433.3%29.2%37.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m14839.2%27.0%33.8%30.7%33.7%35.6%Weak or none5046.0%26.0%28.0%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m4f4738.3%23.4%38.3%30.2%33.9%35.9%Weak or none911.1%44.4%44.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Bellewstown stall by stall at each distance

5f16058.3%9.9%18.3%29.8%-11.5
5f2641218.8%10.0%32.8%29.9%+2.9
5f36657.6%9.8%25.8%29.4%-3.6
5f464710.9%9.8%29.7%29.5%+0.2
5f56968.7%9.8%27.5%29.4%-1.9
5f66746.0%9.9%32.8%29.6%+3.3
5f76457.8%9.9%21.9%29.6%-7.8
5f86369.5%10.0%38.1%30.0%+8.1
5f953611.3%9.4%26.4%28.2%-1.8
1m11321410.6%8.5%31.8%25.5%+6.3
1m21321712.9%8.5%32.6%25.5%+7.1
1m3134139.7%8.5%26.1%25.6%+0.6
1m41341410.4%8.5%23.9%25.4%-1.5
1m512964.7%8.6%24.8%25.7%-0.9
1m61301310.0%8.5%28.5%25.5%+2.9
1m713521.5%8.4%17.0%25.3%-8.3
1m8129107.8%8.5%23.3%25.5%-2.3
1m912686.3%8.2%22.2%24.7%-2.5
1m10115119.6%7.9%22.6%23.7%-1.1
1m1110665.7%7.6%22.6%22.9%-0.3
1m129388.6%7.4%20.4%22.1%-1.7
1m138367.2%7.2%14.5%21.6%-7.2
1m147145.6%7.0%21.1%21.1%+0.1
1m156845.9%6.9%32.4%20.7%+11.6

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Bellewstown draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances26637.6%30.4%26.7%33.8%36.1%35.8%26.8%23.3%26.1%
5f5930.5%29.6%35.6%34.0%35.6%36.5%25.5%30.0%30.5%
1m12038.3%30.9%25.0%33.8%36.7%35.3%26.0%21.2%25.1%
1m4f3842.1%30.2%21.1%33.9%36.8%35.9%31.2%20.3%25.2%

Flat races at Bellewstown with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Bellewstown draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low26637.6%30.4%10.4%96610026.8%
Middle26626.7%33.8%6.7%1,0627123.3%
High26636.1%35.8%8.5%1,1239626.1%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Bellewstown draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances30336.3%30.1%28.1%33.7%36.0%36.2%
5f7231.9%29.6%33.3%33.8%36.1%36.6%
1m12836.7%30.5%26.6%33.9%36.7%35.6%
1m4f4540.0%29.8%22.2%33.8%37.8%36.5%
1m4½f2025.0%29.0%35.0%32.8%40.0%38.1%

Every Flat race at Bellewstown with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Bellewstown draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances3727.0%28.2%37.8%33.1%35.1%38.8%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances11933.6%28.9%33.6%34.4%33.6%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances14041.4%31.6%20.7%33.5%37.9%35.0%
8 to 11 runners5f4131.7%28.6%36.6%34.4%34.1%37.0%
8 to 11 runners1m4238.1%29.3%33.3%34.4%28.6%36.3%
12 to 15 runners1m7838.5%31.7%20.5%33.5%41.0%34.7%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Bellewstown draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances16738.9%30.4%28.7%35.8%32.9%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances4143.9%30.7%48.8%35.6%7.3%
SoftAll distances3925.6%29.8%43.6%36.0%30.8%
Good5f4030.0%29.1%30.0%36.7%42.5%
Good1m7635.5%31.2%32.9%35.0%31.6%
Good1m4f2458.3%30.0%20.8%36.0%20.8%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Bellewstown individual stalls, most-run distances

1m110698.5%8.4%31.1%
1m21041211.5%8.4%29.8%
1m31081211.1%8.5%23.1%
1m41081110.2%8.4%24.1%
1m510243.9%8.5%24.5%
1m61021110.8%8.5%30.4%
1m710910.9%8.4%15.6%
1m8102109.8%8.5%25.5%
1m910565.7%8.3%21.0%

The two most-run distances at Bellewstown in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Bellewstown 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 39.2%Since 2016 Middle: 27%Since 2016 High: 33.8%Since 2024 Low: 46%Since 2024 Middle: 26%Since 2024 High: 28%Expected by chance Low: 30.7%Expected by chance Middle: 33.7%Expected by chance High: 35.6%

Win % of races by Draw third

Bellewstown 1m win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Win % Stall 1: 8.5%8.5%Win % Stall 2: 11.5%11.5%Win % Stall 3: 11.1%11.1%Win % Stall 4: 10.2%10.2%Win % Stall 5: 3.9%3.9%Win % Stall 6: 10.8%10.8%Win % Stall 7: 0.9%0.9%Win % Stall 8: 9.8%9.8%Win % Stall 9: 5.7%5.7%Expected by chance Stall 1: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 2: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 3: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 4: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 5: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 6: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 7: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 8: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 9: 8.3%8.3%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Bellewstown and their draw

1 Oct 26Maxwell Smart (IRE) silksMaxwell Smart (IRE)5Middle111m4½f4.50
1 Oct 26Autocrat (IRE) silksAutocrat (IRE)6Middle111m4½f4.00
1 Oct 26Magnum Cor (IRE) silksMagnum Cor (IRE)1Low31m4½f1.91
1 Oct 26One Cool Bear (IRE) silksOne Cool Bear (IRE)1Low95f9.50
1 Oct 26Duchess Of Kenli (FR) silksDuchess Of Kenli (FR)3Middle51m7.00
1 Oct 26Big Bill (FR) silksBig Bill (FR)3Low91m5.00
1 Oct 26White Sand Beach (USA) silksWhite Sand Beach (USA)2Middle51m1.83
1 Oct 26Sister Nancy (IRE) silksSister Nancy (IRE)4High51m3.00
30 Sep 26Solness (FR) silksSolness (FR)7High81m4½f1.57
30 Sep 26Arch Enemy (IRE) silksArch Enemy (IRE)11High121m4½f10.00
30 Sep 26Smoke Them Out (IRE) silksSmoke Them Out (IRE)9High65f5.00
30 Sep 26White Smoke (IRE) silksWhite Smoke (IRE)7High75f13.00
30 Sep 26Givehertilxmas (IRE) silksGivehertilxmas (IRE)11Middle141m10.00
30 Sep 26Selective Power (IRE) silksSelective Power (IRE)18High141m6.50
30 Sep 26Borora Aura (IRE) silksBorora Aura (IRE)2Low81m5.00
25 Aug 26Wegotogether (IRE) silksWegotogether (IRE)15High151m12.00
25 Aug 26Camino Lad (IRE) silksCamino Lad (IRE)3Low151m5.50
3 Jul 26Private Larry (IRE) silksPrivate Larry (IRE)5Low161m4f21.00
3 Jul 26Happy Henry (IRE) silksHappy Henry (IRE)10High135f5.00
3 Jul 26Focaccia (IRE) silksFocaccia (IRE)4Middle85f8.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Bellewstown in the data with a full draw.

Bellewstown win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f1m1m4fLow third 5f: 30.5%Low third 1m: 38.3%Low third 1m4f: 42.1%Middle third 5f: 35.6%Middle third 1m: 25%Middle third 1m4f: 21.1%High third 5f: 35.6%High third 1m: 36.7%High third 1m4f: 36.8%

Win % of races by Distance

Bellewstown win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 44%Low third 2020: 23.8%Low third 2021: 36.8%Low third 2022: 40.9%Low third 2023: 40%Low third 2024: 45.5%Low third 2025: 30%Low third 2026: 36.7%36.7%Middle third 2019: 28%Middle third 2020: 23.8%Middle third 2021: 31.6%Middle third 2022: 22.7%Middle third 2023: 22.9%Middle third 2024: 27.3%Middle third 2025: 27.5%Middle third 2026: 30%30%High third 2019: 32%High third 2020: 52.4%High third 2021: 31.6%High third 2022: 36.4%High third 2023: 37.1%High third 2024: 27.3%High third 2025: 42.5%High third 2026: 33.3%33.3%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Bellewstown?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Bellewstown, the draw rates weak or none from 148 races. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 39.2% against 30.7% by chance (rated weak or none).

Does Bellewstown's sharp track favour low-drawn horses?

Across all distances pooled, the low third at Bellewstown has run above its expected share, while the middle third has trailed. The mile row carries the largest share of the sample.

How do going and field size change the draw at Bellewstown?

The bias matrix gives every Bellewstown trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Bellewstown draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads stronger lately, from 50 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Bellewstown?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Bellewstown, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 39.2% of 148 races against 30.7% by chance. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 39.2% against 30.7% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Bellewstown over 5f?

Stall 8 has the best top-three record over 5f at Bellewstown since 2016, placing in 38.1% of 63 runs against 28.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Bellewstown?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 37.6% of Bellewstown races against 30.4% by chance, and high draws 35.1% against 35.9%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Why are so many Bellewstown draw figures hidden?

Bellewstown races on only a few days a year, so many distance, going and field size cells fall below 20 races. Hidden cells are left out rather than shown on thin samples.

How often are the Bellewstown draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseBellewstown course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseBellewstown racecardsThe next meeting's full cardNavan draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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