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Listowel draw bias: the Harvest Festival Flat races

At Listowel over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.4% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (74 races), middle draws 41.9% and high draws 29.7%, against 30.6%, 33.5% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Listowel declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 22 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m
Trip where the draw stands out most
230
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 41.9% v 33.5%

At Listowel over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.4% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (74 races), middle draws 41.9% and high draws 29.7%, against 30.6%, 33.5% and 35.9% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 74 races · Window: 5 June 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Listowel draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes2302,78433.0%30.6%33.9%33.8%33.5%35.6%24.9%24.3%25.1%24.8%Low +2.4 pts0.699Weak or none
6½fAll goingAll field sizes2832542.9%29.5%28.6%34.1%28.6%36.4%29.2%28.8%20.3%25.8%Low +13.4 pts0.297Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes5669935.7%31.1%32.1%33.9%33.9%35.0%24.2%24.6%23.4%24.0%Low +4.6 pts0.799Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes2023550.0%30.9%25.0%34.2%30.0%34.9%23.3%25.0%28.0%25.5%Low +19.1 pts0.225Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3646427.8%31.2%36.1%33.7%36.1%35.1%24.7%24.4%21.0%23.3%Middle +2.4 pts0.901Not enough data
7fAll going12 to 15 runners3953733.3%32.0%35.9%33.3%30.8%34.7%22.7%22.9%19.9%21.8%Middle +2.6 pts0.873Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2636730.8%32.1%38.5%33.2%30.8%34.7%23.7%23.8%16.5%21.3%Middle +5.3 pts0.841Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes7491528.4%30.6%41.9%33.5%29.7%35.9%20.8%24.6%26.9%24.3%Middle +8.4 pts0.289Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes2835825.0%30.4%42.9%33.0%32.1%36.6%21.8%22.0%26.2%23.5%Middle +9.9 pts0.540Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4655730.4%30.8%41.3%33.7%28.3%35.5%20.2%26.2%27.4%24.8%Middle +7.6 pts0.480Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners2927724.1%28.8%44.8%34.0%31.0%37.1%32.5%35.1%27.2%31.4%Middle +10.8 pts0.471Not enough data
1mAll going12 to 15 runners3954230.8%31.9%38.5%33.4%30.8%34.7%17.3%21.0%26.1%21.6%Middle +5.1 pts0.780Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2019225.0%29.2%50.0%34.4%25.0%36.4%26.8%36.4%30.0%31.2%Middle +15.6 pts0.325Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2331730.4%32.2%39.1%33.4%30.4%34.4%16.7%22.6%25.7%21.8%Middle +5.7 pts0.838Not enough data
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes2023430.0%30.0%35.0%34.4%35.0%35.5%23.9%26.3%26.5%25.6%Middle +0.6 pts0.998Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes2530132.0%31.7%36.0%33.8%32.0%34.5%24.2%22.5%27.9%24.9%Middle +2.2 pts0.960Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2227427.3%31.4%40.9%33.9%31.8%34.7%19.8%23.7%28.4%24.1%Middle +7.0 pts0.781Not enough data

Flat races at Listowel with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 5 June 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Listowel draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances23033.0%33.9%33.5%30.6%33.8%35.6%Weak or none5442.6%33.3%24.1%Weak or noneStronger lately
6½f2842.9%28.6%28.6%29.5%34.1%36.4%Not enough data757.1%0.0%42.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f5635.7%32.1%33.9%31.1%33.9%35.0%Weak or none1050.0%40.0%10.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m7428.4%41.9%29.7%30.6%33.5%35.9%Weak or none1442.9%42.9%14.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f2030.0%35.0%35.0%30.0%34.4%35.5%Not enough data366.7%33.3%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f2532.0%36.0%32.0%31.7%33.8%34.5%Not enough data633.3%33.3%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Listowel stall by stall at each distance

1m168811.8%8.6%22.1%25.8%-3.8
1m27034.3%8.5%22.9%25.4%-2.6
1m36934.3%8.5%20.3%25.5%-5.2
1m465812.3%8.5%24.6%25.4%-0.8
1m568811.8%8.4%30.9%25.3%+5.6
1m668710.3%8.5%19.1%25.5%-6.4
1m771811.3%8.5%26.8%25.6%+1.2
1m86857.4%8.5%29.4%25.5%+3.9
1m95511.8%8.3%14.5%25.0%-10.4
1m105747.0%7.9%17.5%23.7%-6.1
1m1150714.0%7.7%30.0%23.0%+7.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Listowel draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances16331.3%30.6%33.1%33.7%35.6%35.8%23.5%23.8%25.4%
6½f2035.0%28.8%30.0%34.3%35.0%36.9%23.9%31.6%22.4%
7f3935.9%30.9%30.8%33.8%33.3%35.4%25.2%23.4%22.3%
1m5030.0%30.8%38.0%33.1%32.0%36.0%19.9%23.4%27.4%

Flat races at Listowel with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Listowel draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low16331.3%30.6%8.2%6205123.5%
Middle16333.1%33.7%8.0%6775423.8%
High16335.6%35.8%8.1%7175825.4%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Listowel draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances20330.0%30.2%33.5%33.5%36.5%36.4%
6½f2630.8%29.3%30.8%33.5%38.5%37.2%
7f4835.4%30.5%31.3%33.3%33.3%36.1%
1m6729.9%29.8%34.3%33.3%35.8%36.9%
1m4f2030.0%31.1%40.0%33.5%30.0%35.4%

Every Flat race at Listowel with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Listowel draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances4025.0%28.6%35.0%32.6%40.0%38.9%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances6137.7%28.8%26.2%34.4%36.1%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances9727.8%31.6%35.1%33.4%37.1%35.0%
12 to 15 runners7f3036.7%31.9%33.3%33.1%30.0%34.9%
12 to 15 runners1m2725.9%32.0%37.0%33.3%37.0%34.7%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Listowel draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances6333.3%30.3%36.5%36.3%30.2%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances3826.3%31.0%34.2%35.1%39.5%
SoftAll distances4531.1%30.3%40.0%35.6%28.9%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Listowel 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 28.4%Since 2016 Middle: 41.9%Since 2016 High: 29.7%Since 2024 Low: 42.9%Since 2024 Middle: 42.9%Since 2024 High: 14.3%Expected by chance Low: 30.6%Expected by chance Middle: 33.5%Expected by chance High: 35.9%

Win % of races by Draw third

Listowel win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%10%20%30%40%6½f7f1mLow third 6½f: 35%Low third 7f: 35.9%Low third 1m: 30%Middle third 6½f: 30%Middle third 7f: 30.8%Middle third 1m: 38%High third 6½f: 35%High third 7f: 33.3%High third 1m: 32%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Listowel and their draw

22 Sep 26Count Bezukhov (IRE) silksCount Bezukhov (IRE)2Low81m6f2.88
22 Sep 26Morehampton (IRE) silksMorehampton (IRE)6High71m4.00
22 Sep 26Letmeentertainyou (FR) silksLetmeentertainyou (FR)7High71m26.00
22 Sep 26Meriden (GB) silksMeriden (GB)4Low111m3.25
22 Sep 26Dragon Of Malta (IRE) silksDragon Of Malta (IRE)6Middle117f4.33
22 Sep 26Platino Bianco (IRE) silksPlatino Bianco (IRE)3Low157f19.00
22 Sep 26Loughrea N Roll (IRE) silksLoughrea N Roll (IRE)4Middle67f1.91
21 Sep 26Lauderdale King (IRE) silksLauderdale King (IRE)1Low151m6f3.50
21 Sep 26The Austrian (IRE) silksThe Austrian (IRE)7Middle111m4f1.57
21 Sep 26Handani (IRE) silksHandani (IRE)12High151m4f3.50
21 Sep 26Canon Law (IRE) silksCanon Law (IRE)10Middle151m4f7.50
21 Sep 26Dragon Of Malta (IRE) silksDragon Of Malta (IRE)9Middle131m1f6.00
21 Sep 26Storm Ready (IRE) silksStorm Ready (IRE)15High141m3.75
21 Sep 26Majestic King (IRE) silksMajestic King (IRE)1Low151m4.50
21 Sep 26Magna Victoria (IRE) silksMagna Victoria (IRE)6Middle111m5.50
31 May 26Ndaawi (GB) silksNdaawi (GB)5Middle61m5½f1.62
31 May 26Ballyadam (IRE) silksBallyadam (IRE)4Middle112m2.00
31 May 26La La Lucrative (IRE) silksLa La Lucrative (IRE)3Low157f8.50
31 May 26Tim Toe (IRE) silksTim Toe (IRE)2Low51m10.00
31 May 26Unauthorized (IRE) silksUnauthorized (IRE)4Low136½f7.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Listowel in the data with a full draw.

Listowel win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192021202220232024Low third 2019: 28%Low third 2021: 25%Low third 2022: 21.7%Low third 2023: 27.3%Low third 2024: 40%40%Middle third 2019: 32%Middle third 2021: 28.6%Middle third 2022: 39.1%Middle third 2023: 36.4%Middle third 2024: 30%30%High third 2019: 40%High third 2021: 46.4%High third 2022: 39.1%High third 2023: 36.4%High third 2024: 30%30%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Listowel?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Listowel, the draw rates weak or none from 74 races. It stands out most over 1m, where the middle third has won 41.9% against 33.5% by chance (rated weak or none).

Does a low draw help in Listowel festival handicaps?

Across all distances pooled, the Listowel thirds sit very close to chance. The sample is modest, so only a few trips reach the 20-race minimum.

How do going and field size change the draw at Listowel?

The bias matrix gives every Listowel trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Listowel draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads too few recent races, from 14 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Listowel?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Listowel, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 28.4% of 74 races against 30.6% by chance. It stands out most over 1m, where the middle third has won 41.9% against 33.5% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Listowel over 1m?

Stall 5 has the best top-three record over 1m at Listowel since 2016, placing in 30.9% of 68 runs against 24.3% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Listowel?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 33% of Listowel races against 30.6% by chance, and high draws 33.5% against 35.6%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Are there enough Listowel Flat races outside festival week?

Most Listowel Flat racing happens at its September festival, so the figures largely describe festival races. The sample is modest, so treat each third's figure as a guide rather than a pattern.

How often are the Listowel draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseListowel course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseListowel racecardsThe next meeting's full cardListowel FestivalFestival results and recordsKillarney draw biasThe same thirds at another course

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