Well in at the weights: Marks+ and Trajectory

What does well in at the weights mean?

A horse is well in when the weight it carries, set by its official rating, is lighter than its recent form deserves. Usually the handicapper has not yet caught up with the horse's improvement.

Official ratings are reviewed after each run, but changes are published weekly and take effect days later, so they are always a step behind. A horse that improves quickly, such as an unexposed three year old or a jumper that has just found its trip, can run to a level several pounds above its mark before the handicapper reacts. For those runs it is well in.

The opposite is a horse that is high in the weights: its rating reflects a peak it no longer reaches. Much of reading handicaps comes down to spotting which of the two a runner is, and the chart on this page shows how horses have fared after their marks moved up or down.

How do penalties and unassessed wins affect a horse's mark?

A horse that wins before its rating is updated carries a fixed penalty instead. When its new rating will rise by more than the penalty, it runs well in until the handicapper reassesses it.

Suppose a horse rated 70 wins easily and the handicapper is expected to raise it to 78. If it runs again within days under a 6lb penalty, it races off an effective 76, two pounds lower than its new mark will be. Trainers often turn horses out quickly after a win for this reason.

The reverse can also happen. A horse that wins narrowly may be raised by less than the penalty, so running under a penalty leaves it worse off than waiting. Weighing the penalty against the likely rise is the key sum.

How do Marks+ and PROVEN help judge today's mark?

Marks+ has three parts: the Marks Board, PROVEN, which shows a horse's best official rating bands, and Trajectory, which picks out horses that look well in or are emerging.

The question to ask is simple: is today's mark one the horse has already shown it can win off? A horse rated 76 today that has won off 78 and placed off 80 is running below its proven level. A horse rated 76 whose best winning mark is 68 is being asked to find more than it has ever shown.

The OR Timeline tab on the racecard shows how a horse's mark has moved, which is the other half of the picture. Set today's mark against the bands where the horse has done its best work, and the marks working in its favour stand out.

What do Trajectory and the OR Timeline show about a rating over time?

Trajectory picks out horses that look Well In or are Emerging, and the OR Timeline tab on each racecard shows how a horse's rating has moved over time.

A rating line tells a story at a glance. A steady climb with wins along the way is a progressive horse the handicapper keeps chasing. A peak followed by a long slide is a horse in decline, or one waiting for conditions to suit. A slide that has taken the horse back below its old winning marks is where well in horses are found.

Trajectory also has Black Type and Course Calendar sections alongside Well In and Emerging. Read any horse it picks out with the form in front of you, because a rating line shows where a mark has gone, not why it went there.

• A steady climb with wins: a progressive horse
• A peak then a long slide: decline, or waiting for conditions
• A slide below old winning marks: where well in horses are found
• A sharp rise after one win: check the penalty sums

Is a horse that has dropped 10lb automatically well handicapped?

No. A falling mark often reflects a real decline through age, lost form or unsuitable trips, so a drop only matters if recent runs show ability above the new rating.

Handicappers drop horses because they keep getting beaten. Sometimes that is bad luck, the wrong ground or the wrong trip, and the horse is ready to win when conditions come right. Often it is simply that the horse is not as good as it was. The chart on this page shows that, over ten seasons, horses dropped in the weights have won less often than horses raised, because raised horses are usually the ones improving.

The test is evidence. Look for recent runs that were better than the result: a close finish, a hampered run, a run on unsuitable ground. A drop backed by that kind of evidence is interesting; a drop backed by a string of tailed off efforts is not.

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