Home / Stats & Records / Carlisle draw bias
LiveFree dataUpdated every night

Carlisle draw bias: summer sprints on a stiff finish

At Carlisle over 6f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 24.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (181 races), middle draws 38.7% and high draws 36.5%, against 29.6%, 33.9% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Carlisle declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 9 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m3f
Trip where the draw stands out most
639
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 38.7% v 33.9%

At Carlisle over 6f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 24.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (181 races), middle draws 38.7% and high draws 36.5%, against 29.6%, 33.9% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 1m3f, where the middle third has won 48.1% of 54 races against 33.9% by chance (moderate).Sample: 181 races · Window: 20 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes6396,55029.3%29.6%37.2%34.0%33.5%36.4%28.2%31.3%28.2%29.3%Middle +3.2 pts0.180Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes7070134.3%29.7%27.1%33.9%38.6%36.4%30.1%29.5%30.2%30.0%Low +4.6 pts0.468Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2019225.0%28.5%30.0%34.6%45.0%37.0%23.6%34.8%33.8%31.2%High +8.0 pts0.757Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3333142.4%30.2%21.2%33.6%36.4%36.2%34.0%27.0%29.2%29.9%Low +12.2 pts0.207Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners5955630.5%29.5%28.8%33.9%40.7%36.6%30.5%32.4%32.4%31.8%High +4.1 pts0.691Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2725444.4%29.9%18.5%33.6%37.0%36.5%35.5%29.4%31.2%31.9%Low +14.5 pts0.155Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes1811,89624.9%29.6%38.7%33.9%36.5%36.4%24.2%31.2%30.0%28.6%Middle +4.8 pts0.274Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes5153615.7%29.2%49.0%34.1%35.3%36.7%20.9%31.3%32.7%28.5%Middle +14.9 pts0.038Moderate
6fGoodAll field sizes5052426.0%29.9%30.0%33.6%44.0%36.5%25.5%29.5%30.4%28.6%High +7.5 pts0.545Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes8083630.0%29.7%37.5%34.0%32.5%36.2%25.6%32.2%28.1%28.7%Middle +3.5 pts0.742Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1311,24925.2%28.9%38.9%34.3%35.9%36.9%26.9%33.3%33.4%31.5%Middle +4.6 pts0.478Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners4861422.9%31.7%39.6%33.0%37.5%35.3%19.6%27.1%24.0%23.5%Middle +6.6 pts0.395Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3532717.1%28.3%51.4%34.4%31.4%37.3%23.7%32.1%38.5%32.1%Middle +17.0 pts0.090Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners3837426.3%29.2%28.9%33.7%44.7%37.1%28.4%32.5%30.2%30.5%High +7.6 pts0.620Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5854829.3%29.0%37.9%34.6%32.8%36.5%27.7%34.4%32.5%31.8%Middle +3.3 pts0.814Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2025530.0%31.8%40.0%32.5%30.0%35.6%22.2%27.7%20.9%23.5%Middle +7.5 pts0.763Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1131,07331.0%29.1%25.7%34.0%43.4%36.9%33.3%30.9%30.9%31.6%High +6.5 pts0.153Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4239921.4%28.6%28.6%34.2%50.0%37.1%32.2%30.1%32.4%31.6%High +12.9 pts0.219Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes2524240.0%30.4%24.0%33.6%36.0%36.0%31.1%29.6%32.2%31.0%Low +9.6 pts0.485Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4643234.8%28.8%23.9%34.1%41.3%37.1%35.7%32.2%28.8%31.9%Low +6.0 pts0.338Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners10294133.3%28.7%25.5%34.1%41.2%37.2%35.1%31.7%31.3%32.5%Low +4.6 pts0.181Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4037522.5%28.4%30.0%34.3%47.5%37.3%32.7%31.3%32.1%32.0%High +10.2 pts0.402Weak or none
7fGood8 to 11 runners2119447.6%29.8%19.0%33.7%33.3%36.5%32.8%32.3%32.4%32.5%Low +17.8 pts0.164Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4137236.6%28.3%24.4%34.1%39.0%37.6%38.7%31.7%30.0%33.1%Low +8.3 pts0.339Weak or none
1mAll goingAll field sizes1181,24226.3%29.9%43.2%34.0%30.5%36.0%25.6%32.1%27.5%28.5%Middle +9.2 pts0.109Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4345630.2%29.5%39.5%34.3%30.2%36.3%28.7%29.0%27.3%28.3%Middle +5.2 pts0.676Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes2523236.0%29.9%48.0%34.3%16.0%35.9%35.7%35.4%26.5%32.3%Middle +13.7 pts0.109Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5055418.0%30.3%44.0%33.7%38.0%36.0%18.9%33.3%28.1%27.1%Middle +10.3 pts0.128Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners8072126.3%29.1%43.8%34.4%30.0%36.4%29.4%37.7%32.3%33.3%Middle +9.4 pts0.207Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners3140822.6%31.7%48.4%33.5%29.0%34.8%20.9%27.7%19.7%22.8%Middle +14.9 pts0.208Not enough data
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2925720.7%28.6%44.8%34.8%34.5%36.6%28.4%38.2%34.0%33.9%Middle +10.0 pts0.472Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners2219640.9%29.4%45.5%34.4%13.6%36.2%37.9%35.8%28.2%33.7%Low +11.5 pts0.088Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2926820.7%29.4%41.4%34.1%37.9%36.5%24.1%38.5%33.7%32.5%Middle +7.3 pts0.545Not enough data
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes7376437.0%29.9%42.5%33.9%20.5%36.2%33.3%30.4%23.2%28.7%Middle +8.6 pts0.021Moderate
1m1fGoodAll field sizes2322547.8%28.5%30.4%34.5%21.7%37.0%35.4%31.2%26.5%30.7%Low +19.3 pts0.103Not enough data
1m1fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4346034.9%30.4%51.2%33.5%14.0%36.1%34.8%30.1%20.5%28.0%Middle +17.7 pts0.006Moderate
1m1fAll going8 to 11 runners4844535.4%28.7%41.7%34.5%22.9%36.8%38.3%34.6%25.6%32.4%Middle +7.2 pts0.136Weak or none
1m1fAll going12 to 15 runners2430341.7%32.4%41.7%32.7%16.7%34.9%27.6%24.2%19.8%23.8%Low +9.3 pts0.172Not enough data
1m1fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2624326.9%29.2%50.0%34.3%23.1%36.6%36.6%36.1%24.7%32.1%Middle +15.7 pts0.200Not enough data
1m3fAll goingAll field sizes5458033.3%30.0%48.1%33.9%18.5%36.1%26.3%35.2%22.5%27.9%Middle +14.2 pts0.018Moderate
1m3fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2830632.1%30.4%57.1%33.4%10.7%36.2%24.7%35.3%22.5%27.5%Middle +23.7 pts0.007Not enough data
1m3fAll going8 to 11 runners3431429.4%29.2%47.1%34.2%23.5%36.6%26.1%44.9%26.1%32.5%Middle +12.9 pts0.200Not enough data

Flat races at Carlisle with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 20 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Carlisle draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances63929.3%37.2%33.5%29.6%34.0%36.4%Weak or none18438.6%30.4%31.0%ModerateGone lately
5f7034.3%27.1%38.6%29.7%33.9%36.4%Weak or none1850.0%22.2%27.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f18124.9%38.7%36.5%29.6%33.9%36.4%Weak or none5141.2%23.5%35.3%Weak or noneGone lately
7f11331.0%25.7%43.4%29.1%34.0%36.9%Weak or none3933.3%25.6%41.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m11826.3%43.2%30.5%29.9%34.0%36.0%Weak or none3432.4%38.2%29.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f7337.0%42.5%20.5%29.9%33.9%36.2%Moderate1957.9%36.8%5.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m3f5433.3%48.1%18.5%30.0%33.9%36.1%Moderate1435.7%35.7%28.6%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Carlisle stall by stall at each distance

5f16669.1%10.3%28.8%30.8%-2.0
5f2651116.9%10.2%36.9%30.6%+6.3
5f36769.0%10.3%34.3%30.8%+3.5
5f464710.9%10.2%25.0%30.7%-5.7
5f56534.6%10.3%26.2%30.9%-4.7
5f66757.5%10.3%32.8%30.8%+2.1
5f770912.9%10.3%32.9%30.8%+2.1
5f863914.3%10.2%27.0%30.7%-3.8
5f958813.8%9.9%34.5%29.6%+4.9
6f1171179.9%9.8%28.7%29.4%-0.8
6f2167148.4%9.8%24.0%29.4%-5.5
6f3169127.1%9.8%24.3%29.5%-5.3
6f4170169.4%9.9%30.0%29.6%+0.4
6f51681810.7%9.8%28.6%29.5%-0.9
6f61672414.4%9.8%34.7%29.4%+5.4
6f7168158.9%9.9%31.5%29.7%+1.8
6f8165169.7%9.8%33.3%29.5%+3.8
6f9150149.3%9.5%30.7%28.5%+2.2
6f10127129.4%9.1%33.9%27.4%+6.5
6f111031312.6%8.8%28.2%26.4%+1.8
6f127468.1%8.5%24.3%25.4%-1.1
7f1110109.1%10.7%35.5%32.2%+3.3
7f21071514.0%10.7%34.6%32.1%+2.4
7f31071110.3%10.7%29.0%32.0%-3.1
7f410198.9%10.6%32.7%31.9%+0.7
7f510776.5%10.7%35.5%32.1%+3.4
7f610099.0%10.7%31.0%32.0%-1.0
7f71051413.3%10.6%34.3%31.8%+2.4
7f81091211.0%10.7%29.4%32.0%-2.7
7f9921314.1%10.4%27.2%31.1%-3.9
7f1067811.9%9.9%26.9%29.8%-3.0
1m1111119.9%10.0%22.5%30.0%-7.5
1m2106109.4%10.0%28.3%30.1%-1.8
1m311198.1%9.9%28.8%29.8%-0.9
1m41031312.6%10.0%32.0%29.9%+2.2
1m51021110.8%10.1%33.3%30.2%+3.1
1m61091513.8%9.9%33.9%29.8%+4.1
1m710587.6%10.0%29.5%30.0%-0.5
1m811398.0%9.9%31.0%29.7%+1.2
1m9951111.6%9.6%33.7%28.8%+4.9
1m107867.7%9.1%28.2%27.2%+1.0
1m116046.7%8.4%18.3%25.3%-7.0
1m1f1651015.4%9.8%35.4%29.3%+6.0
1m1f266812.1%9.8%42.4%29.5%+13.0
1m1f37179.9%9.9%26.8%29.7%-2.9
1m1f4691014.5%9.9%31.9%29.6%+2.3
1m1f570912.9%9.8%28.6%29.4%-0.8
1m1f665913.8%9.8%38.5%29.4%+9.1
1m1f769710.1%9.8%23.2%29.4%-6.3
1m1f86757.5%9.9%31.3%29.8%+1.5
1m1f96134.9%9.8%24.6%29.3%-4.7
1m1f105211.9%9.1%21.2%27.4%-6.2

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Carlisle draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances44829.9%29.6%36.6%34.0%33.5%36.5%27.9%31.8%28.3%
5f5036.0%29.5%30.0%33.9%34.0%36.6%31.5%29.3%30.4%
6f12926.4%29.4%36.4%34.0%37.2%36.6%24.0%32.8%29.4%
7f8229.3%29.2%24.4%33.8%46.3%37.0%30.7%31.4%31.7%
1m8325.3%29.8%43.4%34.0%31.3%36.2%27.1%30.5%27.9%
1m1f4841.7%30.4%45.8%33.4%12.5%36.2%32.1%31.4%22.3%
1m3f3732.4%30.0%43.2%34.1%24.3%35.8%24.4%36.6%23.4%

Flat races at Carlisle with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low44829.9%29.6%9.8%1,36413427.9%
Middle44836.6%34.0%10.6%1,54816431.8%
High44833.5%36.5%9.0%1,66815028.3%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances61728.5%29.2%35.0%33.6%36.5%37.3%
5f7733.8%28.9%27.3%33.0%39.0%38.1%
6f15924.5%29.0%39.0%33.7%36.5%37.3%
7f11029.1%29.1%26.4%33.7%44.5%37.2%
1m11225.0%29.2%40.2%33.9%34.8%36.9%
1m1f6336.5%30.1%41.3%33.0%22.2%36.9%
1m3f6731.3%29.7%35.8%33.1%32.8%37.2%

Every Flat race at Carlisle with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances16924.9%28.2%30.8%32.5%44.4%39.3%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances34529.9%28.9%35.9%34.2%34.2%36.9%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances9429.8%31.9%39.4%33.2%30.9%34.9%
3 to 7 runners5f2729.6%27.6%22.2%31.3%48.1%41.0%
8 to 11 runners5f4533.3%29.5%28.9%33.8%37.8%36.7%
3 to 7 runners6f3016.7%27.4%50.0%32.1%33.3%40.4%
8 to 11 runners6f9927.3%28.7%38.4%34.3%34.3%37.0%
12 to 15 runners6f2821.4%31.8%32.1%33.0%46.4%35.2%
3 to 7 runners7f2828.6%28.9%32.1%33.2%39.3%37.8%
8 to 11 runners7f7431.1%28.8%24.3%33.9%44.6%37.4%
3 to 7 runners1m2924.1%27.4%31.0%33.6%44.8%38.9%
8 to 11 runners1m5724.6%29.0%45.6%34.3%29.8%36.7%
12 to 15 runners1m2222.7%31.5%45.5%33.7%31.8%34.8%
8 to 11 runners1m1f3145.2%29.3%38.7%34.0%16.1%36.6%
3 to 7 runners1m3f3030.0%29.3%26.7%31.9%43.3%38.8%
8 to 11 runners1m3f2429.2%29.2%41.7%34.4%29.2%36.4%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Carlisle draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances12523.2%29.0%39.2%36.8%37.6%
GoodAll distances12735.4%29.7%33.1%36.4%31.5%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances10020.0%29.5%34.0%36.4%46.0%
SoftAll distances8840.9%30.1%25.0%36.3%34.1%
Good to firm or firmer6f3619.4%28.8%33.3%36.9%47.2%
Good6f3923.1%29.5%48.7%36.8%28.2%
Good to soft or yielding6f3327.3%29.5%30.3%36.5%42.4%
Good to firm or firmer7f2913.8%28.6%58.6%37.4%27.6%
Good7f2240.9%30.1%36.4%36.1%22.7%
Soft7f2040.0%29.4%30.0%37.5%30.0%
Good to firm or firmer1m2927.6%29.4%31.0%36.5%41.4%
Good1m2236.4%29.7%13.6%36.1%50.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle individual stalls, most-run distances

6f11261411.1%9.9%29.4%
6f2118119.3%9.9%23.7%
6f312486.5%9.9%24.2%
6f4123118.9%9.9%30.9%
6f5121129.9%9.9%29.8%
6f61191916.0%9.9%37.0%
6f7119108.4%10.0%27.7%
6f8117108.5%9.9%33.3%
6f9105109.5%9.5%31.4%

The two most-run distances at Carlisle in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Carlisle 6f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 24.9%Since 2016 Middle: 38.7%Since 2016 High: 36.5%Since 2024 Low: 41.2%Since 2024 Middle: 23.5%Since 2024 High: 35.3%Expected by chance Low: 29.6%Expected by chance Middle: 33.9%Expected by chance High: 36.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Carlisle 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Win % Stall 1: 11.1%11.1%Win % Stall 2: 9.3%9.3%Win % Stall 3: 6.5%6.5%Win % Stall 4: 8.9%8.9%Win % Stall 5: 9.9%9.9%Win % Stall 6: 16%16%Win % Stall 7: 8.4%8.4%Win % Stall 8: 8.5%8.5%Win % Stall 9: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 7: 10%10%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9.5%9.5%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Carlisle and their draw

9 Sep 26Von Trotter (GB) silksVon Trotter (GB)8High107f9.00
9 Sep 26Barley (IRE) silksBarley (IRE)3Low91m5.00
9 Sep 26Donald (GB) silksDonald (GB)3Low116f6.00
9 Sep 26Solid Bond (IRE) silksSolid Bond (IRE)2Low125f10.00
9 Sep 26Harper Violet (IRE) silksHarper Violet (IRE)7Middle121m3f4.00
9 Sep 26Caturra Lights (GB) silksCaturra Lights (GB)2Low106f12.00
9 Sep 26Lady Foxtrot (IRE) silksLady Foxtrot (IRE)2Low136f15.00
27 Aug 26Dr Rio (FR) silksDr Rio (FR)3Middle71m3f6.00
27 Aug 26Farabove The Limit (IRE) silksFarabove The Limit (IRE)7High91m3f9.50
27 Aug 26Royal Duke (GB) silksRoyal Duke (GB)4Middle115f13.00
27 Aug 26Rikki Tiki Tavi (IRE) silksRikki Tiki Tavi (IRE)8High76f13.00
27 Aug 26Bincimbal (IRE) silksBincimbal (IRE)5High51m3.25
27 Aug 26Blazing Inferno (IRE) silksBlazing Inferno (IRE)2Low116f6.50
27 Aug 26Jewel Maker (IRE) silksJewel Maker (IRE)2Low81m1f7.50
19 Aug 26Diamond New Bay (IRE) silksDiamond New Bay (IRE)5High76f3.75
19 Aug 26Between Me And U (GB) silksBetween Me And U (GB)6Middle91m11.00
19 Aug 26Dream Forever (IRE) silksDream Forever (IRE)2Low86f34.00
19 Aug 26Count Palatine (IRE) silksCount Palatine (IRE)8High107f9.50
19 Aug 26Supreme Dancer (IRE) silksSupreme Dancer (IRE)2Low97f4.33
19 Aug 26April Diamond (IRE) silksApril Diamond (IRE)6Middle107f9.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Carlisle in the data with a full draw.

Carlisle win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m1f1m3fLow third 5f: 36%Low third 6f: 26.4%Low third 7f: 29.3%Low third 1m: 25.3%Low third 1m1f: 41.7%Low third 1m3f: 32.4%Middle third 5f: 30%Middle third 6f: 36.4%Middle third 7f: 24.4%Middle third 1m: 43.4%Middle third 1m1f: 45.8%Middle third 1m3f: 43.2%High third 5f: 34%High third 6f: 37.2%High third 7f: 46.3%High third 1m: 31.3%High third 1m1f: 12.5%High third 1m3f: 24.3%

Win % of races by Distance

Carlisle win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%2019202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 23.7%Low third 2021: 27%Low third 2022: 24.6%Low third 2023: 19.6%Low third 2024: 43.1%Low third 2025: 35.5%Low third 2026: 37.5%37.5%Middle third 2019: 46.1%Middle third 2021: 34.9%Middle third 2022: 43.5%Middle third 2023: 37.5%Middle third 2024: 34.5%Middle third 2025: 32.3%Middle third 2026: 25%25%High third 2019: 30.3%High third 2021: 38.1%High third 2022: 31.9%High third 2023: 42.9%High third 2024: 22.4%High third 2025: 32.3%High third 2026: 37.5%37.5%

Win % of races by Year

Put the draw beside the Carlisle card

Members get every Carlisle racecard with RWS scores, market moves across 20+ bookmakers, Angles and FormLines+ on each runner, to read alongside these draw thirds.

Start free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

Is there a draw bias at Carlisle?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Carlisle, the draw rates weak or none from 181 races. It stands out most over 1m3f, where the middle third has won 48.1% against 33.9% by chance (rated moderate).

Is the Carlisle Flat sample big enough to trust?

Carlisle races over jumps through the winter, so its Flat figures come from the summer months. The race count sits on every row below, and any distance under 20 races is hidden.

How do going and field size change the draw at Carlisle?

The bias matrix gives every Carlisle trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Carlisle draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 6f the check reads gone lately, from 51 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Carlisle?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Carlisle, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 24.9% of 181 races against 29.6% by chance. It stands out most over 1m3f, where the middle third has won 48.1% against 33.9% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Carlisle over 5f?

Stall 2 has the best top-three record over 5f at Carlisle since 2016, placing in 36.9% of 65 runs against 30% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Carlisle?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.3% of Carlisle races against 29.6% by chance, and high draws 33.5% against 36.4%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the stiff finish at Carlisle blunt the draw in sprints?

Carlisle's 5f and 6f rows in the distance table show how each third has fared on the uphill run to the line. The thirds sit within a few points of chance overall, so pace and form usually carry more weight than the stall.

How often are the Carlisle draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseCarlisle course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseCarlisle racecardsThe next meeting's full cardHamilton draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Updated