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Doncaster draw bias: the straight mile and the round course

At Doncaster over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33.6% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (327 races), middle draws 33.9% and high draws 33%, against 30.2%, 33.6% and 36.1% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Doncaster declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 13 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m
Trip where the draw stands out most
1,265
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 33.6% v 30.2%

At Doncaster over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33.6% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (327 races), middle draws 33.9% and high draws 33.0%, against 30.2%, 33.6% and 36.1% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 327 races · Window: 2 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Doncaster draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1,26514,67431.6%30.0%34.6%33.8%34.1%36.2%26.2%26.1%25.4%25.9%Low +1.6 pts0.225Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes1181,30929.7%29.8%34.7%33.9%37.3%36.3%24.4%27.4%28.9%27.0%High +1.0 pts0.972Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3939428.2%29.0%35.9%34.8%38.5%36.2%29.3%27.2%32.4%29.7%High +2.3 pts0.961Not enough data
5fGoodAll field sizes3842021.1%29.5%39.5%33.9%39.5%36.6%20.8%31.0%28.8%27.1%Middle +5.6 pts0.508Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4149539.0%30.7%29.3%33.0%34.1%36.3%23.5%24.5%26.3%24.8%Low +8.3 pts0.565Weak or none
5fAll going8 to 11 runners7772036.4%28.8%26.0%34.3%39.0%36.9%31.7%28.9%35.3%32.1%Low +7.6 pts0.204Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3039620.0%31.9%50.0%33.0%33.3%35.1%19.8%28.2%20.1%22.7%Middle +17.0 pts0.138Not enough data
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3027233.3%28.2%26.7%35.4%43.3%36.4%35.1%28.1%36.4%33.1%High +6.9 pts0.515Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners2624626.9%28.8%34.6%33.9%38.5%37.3%29.6%33.7%31.5%31.7%High +1.2 pts0.978Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2120252.4%29.7%14.3%33.2%33.3%37.0%30.0%23.9%38.7%31.2%Low +22.7 pts0.050Not enough data
5½fAll goingAll field sizes2335613.0%31.4%30.4%32.6%56.5%36.0%12.4%26.7%19.7%19.4%High +20.5 pts0.074Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes2823,21230.1%29.9%37.6%33.9%32.3%36.2%27.3%28.8%23.4%26.3%Middle +3.7 pts0.313Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes1031,08827.2%29.2%43.7%34.3%29.1%36.5%27.4%34.5%23.7%28.4%Middle +9.4 pts0.114Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes7187923.9%30.4%40.8%33.6%35.2%36.0%24.4%27.9%21.0%24.2%Middle +7.2 pts0.348Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes1081,24537.0%30.1%29.6%33.8%33.3%36.0%29.4%24.3%24.8%26.0%Low +6.9 pts0.289Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1731,63228.3%28.9%39.9%34.4%31.8%36.7%31.8%36.3%27.8%31.8%Middle +5.5 pts0.263Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners791,04732.9%31.7%29.1%33.2%38.0%35.1%23.9%21.8%22.3%22.6%High +2.9 pts0.735Weak or none
6fAll going16 or more runners3053333.3%31.1%46.7%33.0%20.0%35.9%21.7%18.8%11.5%16.9%Middle +13.7 pts0.146Not enough data
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners7974829.1%28.5%43.0%34.6%27.8%36.9%29.4%40.3%25.4%31.7%Middle +8.4 pts0.184Weak or none
6fGood8 to 11 runners3533720.0%29.1%34.3%34.2%45.7%36.7%33.7%31.3%29.8%31.2%High +9.0 pts0.415Not enough data
6fGood12 to 15 runners2432425.0%31.8%45.8%33.0%29.2%35.2%17.5%29.9%19.3%22.2%Middle +12.8 pts0.407Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5954732.2%29.2%39.0%34.3%28.8%36.5%33.8%33.7%30.0%32.4%Middle +4.7 pts0.468Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3850042.1%31.5%18.4%33.4%39.5%35.2%27.4%19.8%21.6%22.8%Low +10.6 pts0.128Not enough data
6½fAll goingAll field sizes4356432.6%31.1%39.5%33.0%27.9%35.9%23.9%22.6%22.3%22.9%Middle +6.5 pts0.505Weak or none
7fAll goingAll field sizes3273,80733.6%30.2%33.9%33.6%33.0%36.1%26.7%24.1%26.5%25.8%Low +3.4 pts0.343Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes1181,33733.9%30.3%33.1%33.4%33.1%36.3%25.1%27.0%27.2%26.5%Low +3.6 pts0.651Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes911,05535.2%30.1%37.4%34.0%27.5%35.9%29.6%22.4%26.0%25.9%Low +5.1 pts0.241Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes1181,41532.2%30.2%32.2%33.6%37.3%36.1%26.2%22.8%26.1%25.0%Low +2.0 pts0.875Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners1831,75033.3%29.1%33.9%34.1%33.9%36.9%32.6%29.1%32.5%31.4%Low +4.2 pts0.451Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners1061,39134.9%31.9%34.9%33.2%30.2%34.9%24.8%21.0%22.8%22.9%Low +3.0 pts0.584Weak or none
7fAll going16 or more runners3866631.6%31.2%31.6%32.8%36.8%36.0%16.3%17.4%17.6%17.1%High +0.8 pts0.986Not enough data
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners7067935.7%29.3%32.9%33.6%31.4%37.1%29.6%29.4%33.3%30.9%Low +6.4 pts0.453Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)12 to 15 runners3849031.6%31.9%34.2%33.2%34.2%34.9%24.4%23.3%22.2%23.3%Middle +1.0 pts0.992Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners5148937.3%28.8%29.4%34.6%33.3%36.6%36.9%24.3%33.5%31.3%Low +8.5 pts0.406Weak or none
7fGood12 to 15 runners3140935.5%31.8%48.4%33.5%16.1%34.7%25.4%22.6%20.4%22.7%Middle +14.9 pts0.072Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners6258227.4%29.0%38.7%34.1%37.1%36.9%32.5%32.8%30.7%32.0%Middle +4.6 pts0.807Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3749237.8%31.9%24.3%32.9%37.8%35.2%24.8%17.3%25.4%22.6%Low +5.9 pts0.521Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1792,17437.4%29.8%33.0%33.9%29.6%36.3%27.4%25.1%22.2%24.7%Low +7.6 pts0.057Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4953942.9%29.6%22.4%34.1%34.7%36.3%31.1%23.0%28.2%27.3%Low +13.3 pts0.085Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes5464031.5%30.0%42.6%33.9%25.9%36.2%24.4%31.9%20.3%25.3%Middle +8.7 pts0.244Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes7699538.2%29.8%32.9%33.9%28.9%36.3%27.4%21.9%20.1%22.9%Low +8.4 pts0.232Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners10497931.7%28.5%37.5%34.4%30.8%37.0%32.9%34.2%28.9%31.9%Low +3.2 pts0.413Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners4153941.5%31.6%26.8%33.5%31.7%34.8%28.2%19.3%21.3%22.8%Low +9.9 pts0.382Weak or none
1mAll going16 or more runners3465650.0%31.5%26.5%32.9%23.5%35.6%19.3%15.7%12.4%15.5%Low +18.5 pts0.064Not enough data
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3028346.7%28.2%20.0%34.8%33.3%37.1%35.0%27.6%33.3%31.8%Low +18.5 pts0.060Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners3533422.9%29.3%54.3%34.2%22.9%36.5%30.6%40.4%23.8%31.4%Middle +20.1 pts0.040Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3936228.2%28.0%35.9%34.5%35.9%37.5%33.3%33.9%30.1%32.3%Middle +1.4 pts0.974Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2040460.0%31.9%20.0%32.7%20.0%35.4%23.3%10.6%11.2%14.9%Low +28.1 pts0.026Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1471,67631.3%29.6%29.9%34.0%38.8%36.4%26.7%24.6%27.6%26.3%High +2.4 pts0.586Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2826821.4%28.3%35.7%35.0%42.9%36.7%31.2%31.2%31.6%31.3%High +6.2 pts0.684Not enough data
1m2fGoodAll field sizes4249726.2%29.6%35.7%34.1%38.1%36.3%22.3%26.6%26.7%25.4%High +1.8 pts0.888Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes7791137.7%30.1%24.7%33.5%37.7%36.4%27.8%21.4%27.0%25.4%Low +7.6 pts0.190Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners8982627.0%28.4%29.2%34.4%43.8%37.1%30.9%31.1%34.5%32.3%High +6.7 pts0.397Weak or none
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners3748040.5%31.6%29.7%33.3%29.7%35.2%27.8%17.5%24.3%23.1%Low +8.9 pts0.497Not enough data
1m2fAll going16 or more runners2137033.3%31.1%33.3%33.2%33.3%35.7%16.5%18.7%15.9%17.0%Low +2.2 pts0.967Not enough data
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2320226.1%27.5%26.1%35.4%47.8%37.1%33.9%33.8%34.7%34.2%High +10.7 pts0.525Not enough data
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners2422825.0%28.9%37.5%34.3%37.5%36.8%30.3%34.6%29.8%31.6%Middle +3.2 pts0.904Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4239628.6%28.7%26.2%34.0%45.2%37.3%29.8%27.6%37.2%31.8%High +7.9 pts0.483Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2228454.5%31.8%22.7%33.1%22.7%35.2%31.1%17.0%22.0%23.2%Low +22.7 pts0.072Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes8397130.1%30.3%36.1%33.8%33.7%35.9%26.4%25.0%25.6%25.6%Middle +2.3 pts0.889Weak or none
1m4fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2322430.4%29.6%34.8%34.6%34.8%35.9%34.3%31.2%27.5%30.8%Low +0.8 pts0.993Not enough data
1m4fGoodAll field sizes2327430.4%30.2%30.4%33.9%39.1%35.9%31.3%20.4%24.5%25.2%High +3.2 pts0.926Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3747329.7%30.8%40.5%33.3%29.7%35.9%19.9%24.7%25.4%23.5%Middle +7.2 pts0.612Not enough data
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners5248630.8%29.6%34.6%34.1%34.6%36.4%34.0%28.5%33.9%32.1%Low +1.2 pts0.964Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2119633.3%30.6%33.3%33.3%33.3%36.1%28.3%27.7%39.4%32.1%Low +2.7 pts0.953Not enough data
1m6½fAll goingAll field sizes5048228.0%29.1%34.0%34.2%38.0%36.7%26.2%34.1%32.2%31.1%High +1.3 pts0.979Weak or none
1m6½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2625234.6%29.7%30.8%33.8%34.6%36.4%33.3%32.9%27.2%31.0%Low +4.9 pts0.858Not enough data
1m6½fAll going8 to 11 runners4440429.5%28.8%34.1%34.3%36.4%36.8%27.4%37.0%32.9%32.7%Low +0.7 pts0.994Weak or none
1m6½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2321134.8%29.8%30.4%33.8%34.8%36.4%33.3%36.6%28.6%32.7%Low +5.0 pts0.865Not enough data

Flat races at Doncaster with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 2 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Doncaster draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances1,26531.6%34.6%34.1%30.0%33.8%36.2%Weak or none38131.5%34.4%34.4%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f11829.7%34.7%37.3%29.8%33.9%36.3%Weak or none3917.9%41.0%41.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
5½f2313.0%30.4%56.5%31.4%32.6%36.0%Not enough data70.0%28.6%71.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f28230.1%37.6%32.3%29.9%33.9%36.2%Weak or none8132.1%30.9%37.0%Weak or noneGone lately
6½f4332.6%39.5%27.9%31.1%33.0%35.9%Weak or none1118.2%54.5%27.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f32733.6%33.9%33.0%30.2%33.6%36.1%Weak or none11531.3%33.9%35.7%Weak or noneWeaker lately
1m17937.4%33.0%29.6%29.8%33.9%36.3%Weak or none5341.5%32.1%26.4%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m2f14731.3%29.9%38.8%29.6%34.0%36.4%Weak or none4434.1%31.8%34.1%Weak or noneGone lately
1m4f8330.1%36.1%33.7%30.3%33.8%35.9%Weak or none1735.3%35.3%29.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6½f5028.0%34.0%38.0%29.1%34.2%36.7%Weak or none1346.2%38.5%15.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Doncaster stall by stall at each distance

5f110398.7%9.4%20.4%28.2%-7.8
5f21111513.5%9.6%31.5%28.7%+2.8
5f310976.4%9.6%22.9%28.7%-5.8
5f411165.4%9.5%27.9%28.5%-0.6
5f511098.2%9.5%30.0%28.6%+1.4
5f611276.3%9.5%28.6%28.5%0.0
5f71061211.3%9.5%23.6%28.4%-4.8
5f81081816.7%9.6%40.7%28.9%+11.8
5f99988.1%9.2%28.3%27.5%+0.8
5f10831012.0%8.8%36.1%26.5%+9.7
5f1168710.3%8.5%26.5%25.5%+1.0
6f1253228.7%9.4%28.1%28.1%0.0
6f2265186.8%9.4%28.3%28.1%+0.2
6f32613111.9%9.3%30.7%28.0%+2.7
6f42603312.7%9.3%33.8%27.9%+6.0
6f5262228.4%9.3%26.0%27.8%-1.8
6f62583011.6%9.4%32.2%28.1%+4.1
6f7260228.5%9.4%26.5%28.1%-1.5
6f8267269.7%9.3%32.2%28.0%+4.2
6f9247197.7%9.1%26.3%27.3%-1.0
6f10202157.4%8.6%20.3%25.7%-5.4
6f11166127.2%8.0%19.9%24.0%-4.2
6f1212597.2%7.6%19.2%22.7%-3.5
6f1310198.9%7.2%23.8%21.6%+2.1
6f148067.5%6.8%15.0%20.3%-5.3
6f155935.1%6.4%16.9%19.3%-2.3
7f1298237.7%9.1%23.8%27.3%-3.5
7f23014013.3%9.1%32.2%27.2%+5.0
7f3308237.5%9.1%27.9%27.2%+0.7
7f43173410.7%9.1%27.1%27.3%-0.2
7f53013010.0%9.0%25.6%27.0%-1.4
7f6303258.3%9.1%27.4%27.4%0.0
7f73033210.6%9.1%28.1%27.4%+0.7
7f8308258.1%9.0%25.0%27.1%-2.1
7f9284248.5%8.9%26.1%26.6%-0.5
7f10244197.8%8.5%31.6%25.5%+6.1
7f1121483.7%8.1%18.2%24.3%-6.0
7f121752011.4%7.6%28.0%22.9%+5.1
7f13121119.1%7.2%19.8%21.6%-1.8
7f148633.5%6.6%14.0%19.9%-6.0
7f156246.5%6.3%22.6%19.0%+3.6
7f165223.8%6.2%23.1%18.5%+4.5
1m11691810.7%9.0%33.7%27.1%+6.6
1m2165169.7%9.0%27.9%26.9%+1.0
1m31642213.4%9.1%28.7%27.2%+1.4
1m41672112.6%8.9%32.3%26.8%+5.5
1m51691810.7%9.0%26.0%27.1%-1.1
1m61721810.5%9.0%32.6%26.9%+5.6
1m71691911.2%9.0%25.4%27.1%-1.6
1m816563.6%9.0%22.4%27.1%-4.6
1m914574.8%8.5%22.8%25.5%-2.8
1m1013696.6%8.2%22.8%24.7%-1.9
1m1111176.3%7.7%18.9%23.2%-4.2
1m128033.8%6.9%21.3%20.7%+0.6
1m136534.6%6.7%15.4%20.1%-4.7
1m145923.4%6.2%18.6%18.6%0.0
1m2f1135128.9%9.3%28.9%28.0%+0.9
1m2f21331712.8%9.4%28.6%28.2%+0.3
1m2f313364.5%9.3%24.1%27.9%-3.8
1m2f4136107.4%9.4%25.7%28.2%-2.4
1m2f51291511.6%9.4%31.0%28.1%+2.9
1m2f6137128.8%9.3%27.7%28.0%-0.3
1m2f71401410.0%9.3%27.1%28.0%-0.8
1m2f8135139.6%9.3%29.6%27.8%+1.8
1m2f91271310.2%9.1%28.3%27.3%+1.1
1m2f10113108.8%8.7%23.0%26.0%-3.0
1m2f11861112.8%8.2%32.6%24.5%+8.0
1m2f126323.2%7.3%20.6%21.9%-1.2
1m2f135335.7%7.0%18.9%20.9%-2.0
1m4f1741013.5%9.3%24.3%27.8%-3.5
1m4f27922.5%9.3%20.3%27.8%-7.6
1m4f375810.7%9.3%36.0%27.8%+8.2
1m4f4761114.5%9.3%36.8%28.0%+8.9
1m4f578810.3%9.3%24.4%27.8%-3.4
1m4f67645.3%9.3%26.3%27.9%-1.6
1m4f7761114.5%9.3%30.3%27.9%+2.3
1m4f87534.0%9.3%24.0%28.0%-4.0
1m4f97157.0%9.1%28.2%27.4%+0.8
1m4f105758.8%8.4%26.3%25.3%+1.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Doncaster draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances89733.2%30.0%34.4%33.8%32.7%36.2%27.3%26.1%25.1%
5f8130.9%29.5%37.0%33.9%33.3%36.5%26.4%27.0%28.5%
5½f2015.0%31.4%30.0%32.5%55.0%36.1%14.0%27.4%21.0%
6f20331.5%30.0%35.5%33.8%33.0%36.2%29.0%29.1%24.3%
6½f3026.7%30.8%46.7%33.4%26.7%35.8%22.1%25.8%20.7%
7f23834.9%30.4%31.1%33.4%34.9%36.2%28.0%22.6%27.0%
1m13338.3%29.8%33.8%33.9%27.8%36.3%27.5%26.6%21.0%
1m2f10033.0%29.5%33.0%34.2%34.0%36.3%27.8%26.0%25.9%
1m4f5435.2%30.3%37.0%33.8%27.8%36.0%26.5%24.4%24.7%
1m6½f3234.4%28.1%37.5%34.9%28.1%37.0%29.8%34.0%32.7%

Flat races at Doncaster with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Doncaster draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low89733.2%30.0%9.5%3,12529827.3%
Middle89734.4%33.8%8.9%3,46630926.1%
High89732.7%36.2%7.9%3,72429325.1%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Doncaster draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances1,30031.9%29.3%33.6%33.3%34.7%37.4%
5f12335.0%29.2%30.9%33.2%35.0%37.6%
5½f2114.3%31.5%33.3%32.5%52.4%36.0%
6f24730.0%29.7%34.4%33.3%35.6%37.0%
6½f3327.3%30.4%42.4%33.4%30.3%36.3%
7f31032.3%29.7%31.3%33.2%37.1%37.1%
1m19137.7%29.2%33.0%33.3%29.3%37.5%
1m2f16929.0%28.8%33.7%33.5%37.3%37.7%
1m4f12134.7%28.1%33.9%33.3%31.4%38.5%
1m6½f6229.0%28.3%43.5%33.7%27.4%38.0%

Every Flat race at Doncaster with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Doncaster draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances40329.0%27.7%31.8%32.2%39.2%40.1%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances54330.6%28.9%35.4%34.2%34.4%36.9%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances24537.1%31.8%32.7%33.1%30.6%35.0%
16 or more runnersAll distances10937.6%31.3%33.9%33.0%28.4%35.7%
3 to 7 runners5f4242.9%28.5%19.0%31.8%38.1%39.7%
8 to 11 runners5f5337.7%28.6%26.4%34.2%35.8%37.2%
12 to 15 runners5f2020.0%31.6%55.0%33.4%30.0%35.0%
3 to 7 runners6f4422.7%28.7%29.5%31.0%47.7%40.3%
8 to 11 runners6f13228.8%29.0%37.1%34.2%34.1%36.8%
12 to 15 runners6f5532.7%32.0%32.7%33.0%34.5%35.0%
3 to 7 runners7f7223.6%27.4%31.9%32.4%44.4%40.2%
8 to 11 runners7f13633.1%29.3%32.4%33.8%36.0%36.8%
12 to 15 runners7f7837.2%31.9%30.8%33.1%32.1%35.0%
16 or more runners7f2437.5%31.5%25.0%32.4%37.5%36.1%
3 to 7 runners1m5836.2%27.7%31.0%31.9%32.8%40.4%
8 to 11 runners1m7832.1%28.5%37.2%34.4%30.8%37.0%
12 to 15 runners1m2944.8%31.8%27.6%33.3%27.6%34.9%
16 or more runners1m2650.0%31.6%30.8%32.8%19.2%35.7%
3 to 7 runners1m2f6923.2%27.7%34.8%32.4%42.0%39.9%
8 to 11 runners1m2f5927.1%28.4%35.6%34.8%37.3%36.8%
12 to 15 runners1m2f2948.3%31.3%24.1%33.3%27.6%35.4%
3 to 7 runners1m4f6734.3%26.4%31.3%33.0%34.3%40.6%
8 to 11 runners1m4f3234.4%29.5%37.5%34.0%28.1%36.5%
3 to 7 runners1m6½f3023.3%28.5%50.0%32.5%26.7%39.0%
8 to 11 runners1m6½f3033.3%28.0%40.0%35.0%26.7%37.0%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Doncaster draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances28731.0%29.5%34.1%36.5%34.8%
GoodAll distances27030.0%30.2%34.8%36.1%35.2%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances9836.7%29.9%23.5%36.3%39.8%
SoftAll distances18736.4%30.3%32.1%36.1%33.2%
HeavyAll distances5543.6%30.9%32.7%36.0%23.6%
Good to firm or firmer5f2626.9%28.9%34.6%36.0%38.5%
Good5f3026.7%29.3%36.7%36.9%36.7%
Good to firm or firmer6f7929.1%29.2%31.6%36.7%39.2%
Good6f5523.6%30.7%38.2%36.1%38.2%
Soft6f4242.9%30.0%33.3%35.7%23.8%
Good to firm or firmer7f9034.4%30.3%36.7%36.4%28.9%
Good7f6637.9%30.1%30.3%36.0%31.8%
Soft7f4932.7%30.6%40.8%36.0%30.6%
Good to firm or firmer1m3740.5%29.6%32.4%36.4%27.0%
Good1m4431.8%30.4%29.5%36.1%38.6%
Good to soft or yielding1m2050.0%29.1%20.0%35.9%30.0%
Soft1m2642.3%30.0%19.2%36.7%38.5%
Good1m2f2821.4%29.7%39.3%36.1%39.3%
Soft1m2f2842.9%30.0%28.6%36.3%28.6%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Doncaster individual stalls, most-run distances

6f1181189.9%9.6%29.3%
6f2194136.7%9.6%27.8%
6f31892412.7%9.6%36.0%
6f41872412.8%9.6%33.7%
6f5188179.0%9.5%28.7%
6f61872412.8%9.6%33.2%
6f7191147.3%9.6%26.7%
6f8197178.6%9.6%28.9%
6f91751810.3%9.4%28.6%
6f1013985.8%8.8%19.4%
6f1110987.3%8.1%22.9%
7f1219188.2%9.1%25.1%
7f22203114.1%9.0%33.6%
7f3224177.6%9.1%28.1%
7f4232239.9%9.1%25.9%
7f5218219.6%9.0%23.9%
7f6222167.2%9.1%27.9%
7f72252511.1%9.1%29.3%
7f8226177.5%9.0%23.9%
7f9212209.4%8.9%25.0%
7f10184179.2%8.5%31.5%
7f1115731.9%8.2%15.3%
7f121241512.1%7.7%28.2%

The two most-run distances at Doncaster in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Doncaster 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 33.6%Since 2016 Middle: 33.9%Since 2016 High: 33%Since 2024 Low: 31.3%Since 2024 Middle: 33.9%Since 2024 High: 35.7%Expected by chance Low: 30.2%Expected by chance Middle: 33.6%Expected by chance High: 36.1%

Win % of races by Draw third

Doncaster 7f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Stall 12Win % Stall 1: 8.2%8.2%Win % Stall 2: 14.1%14.1%Win % Stall 3: 7.6%7.6%Win % Stall 4: 9.9%9.9%Win % Stall 5: 9.6%9.6%Win % Stall 6: 7.2%7.2%Win % Stall 7: 11.1%11.1%Win % Stall 8: 7.5%7.5%Win % Stall 9: 9.4%9.4%Win % Stall 10: 9.2%9.2%Win % Stall 11: 1.9%1.9%Win % Stall 12: 12.1%12.1%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9%9%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9%9%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9%9%Expected by chance Stall 9: 8.9%8.9%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 11: 8.2%8.2%Expected by chance Stall 12: 7.7%7.7%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Doncaster and their draw

13 Sep 26Maharajas Express (GB) silksMaharajas Express (GB)8High105f4.50
13 Sep 26Arduis Invicta (IRE) silksArduis Invicta (IRE)1Low166f13.00
13 Sep 26Tiva (IRE) silksTiva (IRE)6Middle105f4.33
13 Sep 26Valedictory (GB) silksValedictory (GB)2Low81m6½f2.75
13 Sep 26Pina Sonata (GB) silksPina Sonata (GB)7Middle197f13.00
13 Sep 26Inishbeg (IRE) silksInishbeg (IRE)13High147f34.00
13 Sep 26Blue Brother (FR) silksBlue Brother (FR)11High136½f3.50
13 Sep 26Ancient State (IRE) silksAncient State (IRE)9Middle165f5.50
12 Sep 26Thunder Run (IRE) silksThunder Run (IRE)5Low121m2f3.75
12 Sep 26Scoville (GB) silksScoville (GB)6Middle171m6.00
12 Sep 26Highwayman (FR) silksHighwayman (FR)7Middle111m6½f12.00
12 Sep 26Air Force One (IRE) silksAir Force One (IRE)17High215½f6.50
12 Sep 26Al Jabbar (IRE) silksAl Jabbar (IRE)4Middle101m4.00
12 Sep 26More Thunder (IRE) silksMore Thunder (IRE)6High87f1.80
12 Sep 26Desert Castle (GB) silksDesert Castle (GB)5High57f2.00
11 Sep 26Almekarem (IRE) silksAlmekarem (IRE)12Middle171m2f4.50
11 Sep 26Beresford Gap (IRE) silksBeresford Gap (IRE)6Middle156f13.00
11 Sep 26Victoria Night (IRE) silksVictoria Night (IRE)2Middle47f1.80
11 Sep 26Silver Lake (GB) silksSilver Lake (GB)9High101m4f2.62
11 Sep 26Caballo De Mar (IRE) silksCaballo De Mar (IRE)6High72m2f1.83

The 20 most recent Flat races at Doncaster in the data with a full draw.

Doncaster win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f5½f6f6½f7f1m1m2f1m4f1m6½fLow third 5f: 30.9%Low third 5½f: 15%Low third 6f: 31.5%Low third 6½f: 26.7%Low third 7f: 34.9%Low third 1m: 38.3%Low third 1m2f: 33%Low third 1m4f: 35.2%Low third 1m6½f: 34.4%Middle third 5f: 37%Middle third 5½f: 30%Middle third 6f: 35.5%Middle third 6½f: 46.7%Middle third 7f: 31.1%Middle third 1m: 33.8%Middle third 1m2f: 33%Middle third 1m4f: 37%Middle third 1m6½f: 37.5%High third 5f: 33.3%High third 5½f: 55%High third 6f: 33%High third 6½f: 26.7%High third 7f: 34.9%High third 1m: 27.8%High third 1m2f: 34%High third 1m4f: 27.8%High third 1m6½f: 28.1%

Win % of races by Distance

Doncaster win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
20%30%40%50%60%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 25%Low third 2020: 35.9%Low third 2021: 37.6%Low third 2022: 37.8%Low third 2023: 35.2%Low third 2024: 27%Low third 2025: 37.1%Low third 2026: 29.8%29.8%Middle third 2019: 35.4%Middle third 2020: 32.6%Middle third 2021: 33.9%Middle third 2022: 36%Middle third 2023: 34.3%Middle third 2024: 36.5%Middle third 2025: 31.4%Middle third 2026: 35.6%35.6%High third 2019: 39.6%High third 2020: 31.5%High third 2021: 29.4%High third 2022: 26.1%High third 2023: 31.5%High third 2024: 37.2%High third 2025: 31.4%High third 2026: 34.6%34.6%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Doncaster?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Doncaster, the draw rates weak or none from 327 races. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 37.4% against 29.8% by chance (rated weak or none).

Does the draw matter in the Lincoln on Doncaster's straight mile?

The Lincoln is a big-field handicap on the straight mile, so the mile row and the 16 or more runners band are the closest guides. Each band in the field size table shows its race count.

How do going and field size change the draw at Doncaster?

The bias matrix gives every Doncaster trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Doncaster draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads weaker lately, from 115 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Doncaster?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Doncaster, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 33.6% of 327 races against 30.2% by chance. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 37.4% against 29.8% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Doncaster over 5f?

Stall 8 has the best top-three record over 5f at Doncaster since 2016, placing in 40.7% of 108 runs against 27% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Doncaster?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 31.6% of Doncaster races against 30% by chance, and high draws 34.1% against 36.2%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does soft ground in St Leger week change the Doncaster draw?

The going table splits Doncaster results by official going, with good to soft, soft and heavy on separate rows. Those softer rows have leaned further towards the low third than the quicker ones in the current figures.

How often are the Doncaster draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseDoncaster course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseDoncaster racecardsThe next meeting's full cardSt Leger FestivalFestival results and recordsLincoln Handicap roll of honourPast winners of the race

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