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Bath draw bias: does a low stall help round the kink?

At Bath over 5½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33.1% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (257 races), middle draws 32.3% and high draws 35%, against 29.9%, 33.9% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

Next Flat meeting at Bath: Monday 19 October 2026, 7 races and 156 declared runners placed in their draw third · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m2f
Trip where the draw stands out most
912
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 33.1% v 29.9%

At Bath over 5½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 33.1% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (257 races), middle draws 32.3% and high draws 35.0%, against 29.9%, 33.9% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 1m2f, where the high third has won 47.5% of 118 races against 36.5% by chance (moderate).Sample: 257 races · Window: 15 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Bath draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes9129,65231.4%29.7%31.4%33.9%37.4%36.4%28.8%27.9%28.4%28.3%Low +1.7 pts0.254Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes1571,61135.7%29.6%29.3%34.1%35.0%36.4%30.6%27.5%29.8%29.2%Low +6.1 pts0.211Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes6563433.8%29.5%29.2%34.0%36.9%36.5%30.7%26.2%35.1%30.8%Low +4.3 pts0.656Weak or none
5fGoodAll field sizes5458835.2%29.8%29.6%34.0%35.2%36.2%29.4%26.6%26.9%27.6%Low +5.4 pts0.658Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3838939.5%29.2%28.9%34.4%31.6%36.3%32.2%30.8%25.5%29.3%Low +10.3 pts0.381Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners1191,08935.3%28.9%33.6%34.3%31.1%36.8%32.3%31.2%34.7%32.8%Low +6.4 pts0.252Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3343836.4%31.8%18.2%33.3%45.5%34.9%28.1%20.5%19.6%22.6%High +10.6 pts0.171Not enough data
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners5449038.9%29.0%27.8%34.1%33.3%36.9%32.2%27.1%39.2%33.1%Low +9.9 pts0.269Weak or none
5fGood8 to 11 runners3431426.5%28.9%44.1%34.2%29.4%36.9%31.9%32.7%32.8%32.5%Middle +9.9 pts0.460Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3128538.7%28.7%32.3%34.9%29.0%36.5%32.9%36.4%28.8%32.6%Low +10.0 pts0.444Not enough data
5½fAll goingAll field sizes2572,73633.1%29.9%32.3%33.9%35.0%36.2%30.0%29.3%25.6%28.2%Low +3.2 pts0.561Weak or none
5½fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes1191,22025.2%29.9%40.3%34.1%35.3%36.0%29.3%31.2%27.4%29.3%Middle +6.2 pts0.331Weak or none
5½fGoodAll field sizes6772743.3%30.0%20.9%33.6%35.8%36.4%33.2%28.0%22.7%27.6%Low +13.3 pts0.028Moderate
5½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes7178936.6%29.9%29.6%33.7%33.8%36.3%28.2%27.5%25.5%27.0%Low +6.7 pts0.458Weak or none
5½fAll going8 to 11 runners1711,57631.6%29.0%34.5%34.4%34.5%36.7%33.8%33.4%30.7%32.6%Low +2.6 pts0.729Weak or none
5½fAll going12 to 15 runners771,01235.1%32.0%31.2%33.0%33.8%35.1%25.1%24.9%18.9%22.8%Low +3.1 pts0.841Weak or none
5½fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners8678426.7%29.0%39.5%34.6%34.9%36.4%32.0%35.2%31.5%32.9%Middle +4.9 pts0.666Weak or none
5½fFast (good to firm or firmer)12 to 15 runners3140322.6%32.3%45.2%33.0%32.3%34.7%24.6%24.8%20.0%23.1%Middle +12.2 pts0.308Not enough data
5½fGood8 to 11 runners4340137.2%29.1%20.9%34.1%41.9%36.8%38.5%30.9%28.4%32.2%Low +8.1 pts0.179Weak or none
5½fGood12 to 15 runners2331056.5%31.6%21.7%32.9%21.7%35.5%27.6%25.5%14.5%22.3%Low +24.9 pts0.037Not enough data
5½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4239135.7%28.8%38.1%34.2%26.2%37.0%32.7%32.3%31.7%32.2%Low +6.9 pts0.329Weak or none
5½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2329930.4%31.8%21.7%33.1%47.8%35.1%23.2%24.2%21.9%23.1%High +12.7 pts0.373Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes2052,18927.3%29.8%34.6%33.6%38.0%36.6%27.8%27.8%28.6%28.1%High +1.4 pts0.746Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes7273925.0%29.6%29.2%34.1%45.8%36.3%29.4%28.8%29.5%29.2%High +9.5 pts0.245Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes6268929.0%30.2%38.7%33.4%32.3%36.4%24.5%27.0%29.1%27.0%Middle +5.3 pts0.656Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes7176128.2%29.6%36.6%33.3%35.2%37.1%29.2%27.7%27.3%28.0%Middle +3.3 pts0.841Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners1341,28028.4%28.9%36.6%34.1%35.1%37.1%32.4%30.1%31.8%31.4%Middle +2.5 pts0.820Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners7190925.4%31.5%31.0%32.8%43.7%35.8%21.8%24.5%23.9%23.4%High +7.9 pts0.344Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4843931.3%28.3%27.1%34.8%41.7%36.9%36.0%31.6%31.5%32.8%High +4.8 pts0.532Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)12 to 15 runners2430012.5%32.1%33.3%32.7%54.2%35.2%20.8%24.5%26.4%24.0%High +19.0 pts0.070Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners3736427.0%29.5%48.6%33.8%24.3%36.7%29.9%30.1%31.3%30.5%Middle +14.8 pts0.132Not enough data
1mGood12 to 15 runners2532532.0%31.2%24.0%32.9%44.0%36.0%18.8%23.4%26.5%23.1%High +8.0 pts0.590Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4947726.5%28.9%36.7%33.6%36.7%37.5%31.2%28.8%32.4%30.8%Middle +3.1 pts0.885Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2228431.8%31.1%36.4%32.7%31.8%36.2%26.1%25.8%18.4%23.2%Middle +3.7 pts0.900Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1181,24525.4%29.3%27.1%34.1%47.5%36.5%25.5%27.2%31.9%28.4%High +11.0 pts0.045Moderate
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4948934.7%29.3%18.4%33.9%46.9%36.8%29.9%26.7%33.3%30.1%High +10.1 pts0.069Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes4044417.5%29.1%32.5%34.6%50.0%36.3%24.6%28.1%28.0%27.0%High +13.7 pts0.138Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2931220.7%29.9%34.5%33.8%44.8%36.3%20.2%26.7%35.4%27.9%High +8.5 pts0.495Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners8176824.7%28.4%24.7%34.6%50.6%37.0%28.8%29.1%36.3%31.6%High +13.6 pts0.033Moderate
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners3747727.0%31.3%32.4%33.1%40.5%35.6%20.8%24.1%24.7%23.3%High +4.9 pts0.786Not enough data
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4037430.0%28.8%22.5%34.1%47.5%37.1%31.5%29.9%34.5%32.1%High +10.4 pts0.251Weak or none
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners2423320.8%27.8%25.0%35.7%54.2%36.5%26.2%31.3%34.1%30.9%High +17.7 pts0.198Not enough data
1m3½fAll goingAll field sizes7275634.7%30.0%31.9%34.1%33.3%35.8%28.8%26.6%30.3%28.6%Low +4.7 pts0.688Weak or none
1m3½fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3028426.7%29.4%40.0%35.1%33.3%35.6%26.2%30.3%37.6%31.7%Middle +4.9 pts0.849Not enough data
1m3½fGoodAll field sizes2324634.8%31.0%21.7%33.6%43.5%35.4%27.3%26.8%29.9%28.0%High +8.1 pts0.474Not enough data
1m3½fAll going8 to 11 runners4237428.6%29.0%35.7%35.1%35.7%35.9%30.3%32.8%37.3%33.7%Middle +0.6 pts0.997Weak or none
1m3½fAll going12 to 15 runners3038243.3%31.5%26.7%32.7%30.0%35.8%27.5%20.0%23.4%23.6%Low +11.8 pts0.378Not enough data
1m3½fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2521824.0%29.2%44.0%35.4%32.0%35.4%29.7%35.1%37.7%34.4%Middle +8.6 pts0.659Not enough data
1m5fAll goingAll field sizes3740429.7%30.3%37.8%33.3%32.4%36.4%31.7%24.6%26.5%27.5%Middle +4.5 pts0.820Not enough data
1m5fAll going8 to 11 runners2120242.9%29.2%33.3%33.7%23.8%37.1%35.6%27.9%30.7%31.2%Low +13.7 pts0.310Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes4649034.8%29.6%26.1%33.2%39.1%37.2%28.1%25.9%30.2%28.2%Low +5.2 pts0.555Weak or none
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2021535.0%29.6%25.0%33.6%40.0%36.8%28.1%26.4%29.1%27.9%Low +5.4 pts0.706Not enough data
1m6fAll going8 to 11 runners2927031.0%28.7%31.0%33.6%37.9%37.7%30.8%27.8%37.3%32.2%Low +2.3 pts0.947Not enough data
2m1fAll goingAll field sizes2022135.0%29.2%25.0%34.2%40.0%36.6%24.6%33.3%23.5%27.1%Low +5.8 pts0.676Not enough data

Flat races at Bath with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 15 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Bath draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances91231.4%31.4%37.4%29.7%33.9%36.4%Weak or none27733.2%34.7%32.1%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f15735.7%29.3%35.0%29.6%34.1%36.4%Weak or none4531.1%33.3%35.6%Weak or noneWeaker lately
5½f25733.1%32.3%35.0%29.9%33.9%36.2%Weak or none7841.0%29.5%29.5%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m20527.3%34.6%38.0%29.8%33.6%36.6%Weak or none7932.9%39.2%27.8%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m2f11825.4%27.1%47.5%29.3%34.1%36.5%Moderate2924.1%27.6%48.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m3½f7234.7%31.9%33.3%30.0%34.1%35.8%Weak or none1827.8%44.4%27.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m5f3729.7%37.8%32.4%30.3%33.3%36.4%Not enough data40.0%50.0%50.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f4634.8%26.1%39.1%29.6%33.2%37.2%Weak or none1533.3%40.0%26.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m1f2035.0%25.0%40.0%29.2%34.2%36.6%Not enough data933.3%33.3%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Bath stall by stall at each distance

5f1146128.2%10.1%28.1%30.4%-2.3
5f21462315.8%10.2%34.2%30.5%+3.8
5f3143139.1%10.1%29.4%30.4%-1.1
5f41451812.4%10.2%30.3%30.5%-0.1
5f5145139.0%10.1%35.2%30.3%+4.9
5f61441611.1%10.1%27.8%30.4%-2.6
5f7150117.3%10.1%26.0%30.4%-4.4
5f8142139.2%10.1%30.3%30.4%-0.1
5f912897.0%9.8%31.3%29.4%+1.9
5f101001010.0%9.4%33.0%28.2%+4.8
5f117468.1%8.7%31.1%26.1%+5.0
5f125447.4%8.2%13.0%24.5%-11.6
5½f1236239.7%9.8%32.2%29.5%+2.7
5½f22392610.9%9.8%33.9%29.5%+4.4
5½f32403414.2%9.8%32.5%29.4%+3.1
5½f4232208.6%9.9%25.9%29.6%-3.7
5½f5236187.6%9.8%32.2%29.5%+2.7
5½f6243187.4%9.8%26.3%29.5%-3.2
5½f72352510.6%9.9%30.2%29.6%+0.6
5½f82372811.8%9.8%28.7%29.3%-0.7
5½f9203209.9%9.5%34.0%28.5%+5.5
5½f10173126.9%8.9%23.1%26.8%-3.7
5½f1112286.6%8.3%23.0%24.8%-1.9
5½f121081413.0%8.0%24.1%24.0%0.0
5½f137933.8%7.6%13.9%22.7%-8.8
5½f146169.8%7.3%19.7%22.0%-2.4
1m11842010.9%9.6%27.7%28.8%-1.1
1m2187189.6%9.7%28.9%29.1%-0.2
1m3194168.2%9.7%30.4%29.0%+1.4
1m4182147.7%9.6%30.2%28.8%+1.4
1m5185147.6%9.6%28.1%28.8%-0.7
1m6192199.9%9.7%26.6%29.0%-2.4
1m71872111.2%9.6%29.9%28.8%+1.1
1m8192178.9%9.6%29.7%28.8%+0.9
1m9174148.0%9.4%23.6%28.1%-4.5
1m10154127.8%9.1%27.9%27.2%+0.8
1m111251512.0%8.7%28.8%26.1%+2.7
1m12981010.2%8.4%33.7%25.2%+8.5
1m1370912.9%8.1%21.4%24.3%-2.9
1m145036.0%8.0%16.0%24.0%-8.0
1m2f11111210.8%9.8%27.9%29.3%-1.3
1m2f210832.8%9.8%21.3%29.5%-8.2
1m2f31131311.5%9.8%31.0%29.4%+1.6
1m2f411265.4%9.7%25.9%29.1%-3.2
1m2f511265.4%9.7%25.9%29.1%-3.2
1m2f61101311.8%9.8%30.0%29.5%+0.5
1m2f7107109.3%9.8%31.8%29.5%+2.3
1m2f81131513.3%9.8%31.0%29.4%+1.6
1m2f99166.6%9.4%24.2%28.2%-4.0
1m2f10861416.3%9.1%40.7%27.2%+13.5
1m2f1162711.3%8.5%27.4%25.5%+1.9
1m3½f1661015.2%9.9%36.4%29.6%+6.7
1m3½f269710.1%9.8%27.5%29.5%-2.0
1m3½f36557.7%9.9%30.8%29.7%+1.1
1m3½f46657.6%9.8%25.8%29.4%-3.6
1m3½f568913.2%9.9%23.5%29.7%-6.2
1m3½f6681014.7%9.8%33.8%29.3%+4.5
1m3½f76934.3%9.9%24.6%29.6%-4.9
1m3½f86868.8%9.9%26.5%29.7%-3.3
1m3½f95858.6%9.5%37.9%28.6%+9.3

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Bath draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances69131.1%29.8%33.7%33.8%35.2%36.4%28.3%28.2%28.4%
5f10839.8%29.7%29.6%34.1%30.6%36.2%32.7%27.3%27.9%
5½f18829.3%30.0%37.2%33.9%33.5%36.1%29.6%30.1%25.2%
1m17129.2%29.8%36.8%33.5%33.9%36.7%27.5%27.8%28.6%
1m2f9425.5%29.3%25.5%34.1%48.9%36.6%24.9%26.9%32.5%
1m3½f5435.2%30.3%37.0%34.2%27.8%35.5%28.5%26.7%31.0%
1m5f2123.8%30.8%38.1%32.4%38.1%36.8%24.7%24.7%29.9%
1m6f4136.6%29.5%26.8%33.5%36.6%37.0%27.3%26.6%31.4%

Flat races at Bath with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Bath draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low69131.1%29.8%9.8%2,19821528.3%
Middle69133.7%33.8%9.5%2,46523328.2%
High69135.2%36.4%9.1%2,65824328.4%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Bath draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances1,08231.1%29.0%33.5%33.3%35.4%37.8%
5f22333.6%28.6%31.4%33.1%35.0%38.2%
5½f26231.3%29.4%36.3%33.5%32.8%37.1%
1m24930.1%29.1%35.7%33.2%34.1%37.6%
1m2f14728.6%28.4%28.6%33.5%42.9%38.1%
1m3½f9230.4%28.8%33.7%33.5%35.9%37.7%
1m5f2825.0%30.0%35.7%31.9%39.3%38.1%
1m6f6137.7%28.8%29.5%32.7%32.8%38.5%
2m1f2025.0%27.8%40.0%34.7%35.0%37.4%

Every Flat race at Bath with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Bath draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances39131.2%27.4%33.2%32.3%35.8%40.2%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances46431.0%29.0%34.5%34.2%34.5%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances21730.9%31.6%33.6%33.0%35.5%35.4%
3 to 7 runners5f11527.8%27.6%33.0%32.2%39.1%40.2%
8 to 11 runners5f8040.0%29.1%33.8%34.4%26.3%36.5%
12 to 15 runners5f2540.0%31.5%20.0%33.5%40.0%35.0%
3 to 7 runners5½f7436.5%27.9%33.8%32.5%31.1%39.6%
8 to 11 runners5½f12928.7%29.2%38.0%34.3%33.3%36.5%
12 to 15 runners5½f5228.8%32.0%40.4%33.0%30.8%35.0%
3 to 7 runners1m7832.1%27.7%33.3%32.5%34.6%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m11129.7%29.0%38.7%33.9%31.5%37.1%
12 to 15 runners1m6028.3%31.4%33.3%32.7%38.3%35.8%
3 to 7 runners1m2f5334.0%26.8%34.0%32.5%32.1%40.7%
8 to 11 runners1m2f6526.2%28.5%23.1%34.5%50.8%37.1%
12 to 15 runners1m2f2924.1%31.1%31.0%33.4%44.8%35.5%
3 to 7 runners1m3½f3823.7%26.7%28.9%32.5%47.4%40.8%
8 to 11 runners1m3½f3231.3%29.2%40.6%35.1%28.1%35.7%
12 to 15 runners1m3½f2240.9%31.9%31.8%32.8%27.3%35.3%
3 to 7 runners1m6f2040.0%27.3%35.0%31.3%25.0%41.5%
8 to 11 runners1m6f2733.3%28.6%29.6%33.8%37.0%37.5%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Bath draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances25727.2%29.7%37.0%36.2%35.8%
GoodAll distances22432.1%29.9%36.2%36.4%31.7%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances11040.0%30.2%29.1%36.5%30.9%
SoftAll distances6825.0%29.6%38.2%36.3%36.8%
HeavyAll distances3237.5%29.0%28.1%36.8%34.4%
Good to firm or firmer5f3839.5%29.7%31.6%36.4%28.9%
Good5f4136.6%29.8%34.1%36.2%29.3%
Good to firm or firmer5½f8617.4%30.0%32.6%35.8%50.0%
Good5½f5442.6%30.1%37.0%36.6%20.4%
Good to soft or yielding5½f2429.2%30.8%37.5%35.7%33.3%
Good to firm or firmer1m5525.5%29.7%43.6%36.5%30.9%
Good1m5632.1%30.0%28.6%36.6%39.3%
Good to soft or yielding1m3046.7%29.8%23.3%37.2%30.0%
Soft1m248.3%29.6%37.5%36.5%54.2%
Good to firm or firmer1m2f3435.3%29.1%47.1%37.0%17.6%
Good1m2f3417.6%29.0%52.9%36.4%29.4%
Good to firm or firmer1m3½f2330.4%29.8%26.1%35.4%43.5%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Bath individual stalls, most-run distances

5½f1173158.7%9.8%30.6%
5½f2182168.8%9.8%32.4%
5½f31772614.7%9.8%35.0%
5½f4171179.9%9.8%27.5%
5½f5173137.5%9.8%28.9%
5½f6180126.7%9.8%28.3%
5½f71732112.1%9.9%28.3%
5½f81742011.5%9.7%27.0%
5½f91551610.3%9.4%34.8%
5½f1012697.1%9.0%24.6%
1m11531610.5%9.6%27.5%
1m21581811.4%9.6%27.2%
1m3162138.0%9.6%29.6%
1m4153138.5%9.5%31.4%
1m5153117.2%9.6%26.8%
1m61621811.1%9.6%26.5%
1m71572012.7%9.5%31.2%
1m8162148.6%9.6%29.0%
1m914796.1%9.4%23.8%
1m1013286.1%9.1%27.3%
1m111071211.2%8.7%29.0%

The two most-run distances at Bath in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Bath 5½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 33.1%Since 2016 Middle: 32.3%Since 2016 High: 35%Since 2024 Low: 41%Since 2024 Middle: 29.5%Since 2024 High: 29.5%Expected by chance Low: 29.9%Expected by chance Middle: 33.9%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Bath next Flat meeting, 19 October 2026, with the draw record

19 Oct 2613:47Sw Hire Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 62m1f170------
19 Oct 2614:17Mj Church Nursery Handicap StakesClass 55f1810839.8%29.6%30.6%29.7%34.1%36.2%
19 Oct 2614:47Big Stage Hire Handicap StakesClass 55f1910839.8%29.6%30.6%29.7%34.1%36.2%
19 Oct 2615:17Elite Racing Club Novice StakesClass 31m2717129.2%36.8%33.9%29.8%33.5%36.7%
19 Oct 2615:47Wiltshire And Bath Air Ambulance Nursery Handicap StakesClass 51m2517129.2%36.8%33.9%29.8%33.5%36.7%
19 Oct 2616:17Djsn Ltd Handicap StakesClass 41m1517129.2%36.8%33.9%29.8%33.5%36.7%
19 Oct 2616:50Elite Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 61m3517129.2%36.8%33.9%29.8%33.5%36.7%

Declared runners exclude non-runners. Races of 8 or more declared runners use the 8 or more runners record at the same distance, smaller fields use the all field sizes record. Blank history means fewer than 20 races at that distance since 2019.

Bath 5½f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Win % Stall 1: 8.7%8.7%Win % Stall 2: 8.8%8.8%Win % Stall 3: 14.7%14.7%Win % Stall 4: 9.9%9.9%Win % Stall 5: 7.5%7.5%Win % Stall 6: 6.7%6.7%Win % Stall 7: 12.1%12.1%Win % Stall 8: 11.5%11.5%Win % Stall 9: 10.3%10.3%Win % Stall 10: 7.1%7.1%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.9%9.9%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.7%9.7%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9.4%9.4%Expected by chance Stall 10: 9%9%

Win % by Stall

Declared runners by draw third, next Flat meeting

13:47Assured silksAssured0High--2m1f17-
13:47Indigo Times silksIndigo Times0Low--2m1f17-
13:47Individualiste silksIndividualiste0Middle--2m1f17-
13:47Everest silksEverest0High--2m1f17-
13:47Different Drum silksDifferent Drum0High--2m1f17-
13:47La Trinite silksLa Trinite0High--2m1f17-
13:47Rock On Pedro silksRock On Pedro0Middle--2m1f17-
13:47Lilykoy silksLilykoy0High--2m1f17-
13:47Sanitiser silksSanitiser0Middle--2m1f17-
13:47Flamingo Rose silksFlamingo Rose0Low--2m1f17-
13:47Paraone silksParaone0Low--2m1f17-
13:47Dereham silksDereham0Low--2m1f17-
13:47Chillhi silksChillhi0Middle--2m1f17-
13:47Star of Jupiter silksStar of Jupiter0High--2m1f17-
13:47Smith silksSmith0Low--2m1f17-
13:47Stopherandgo silksStopherandgo0Middle--2m1f17-
13:47Ocean Heights silksOcean Heights0Middle--2m1f17-
14:17Dreams Galore silksDreams Galore0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:17Wolf's Gallop silksWolf's Gallop0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Knock Three Times silksKnock Three Times0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Holi Scarlett silksHoli Scarlett0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Dowman silksDowman0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Romeo Guest silksRomeo Guest0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Chief Minister silksChief Minister0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Naval Cop silksNaval Cop0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Perigord Noir silksPerigord Noir0Middle29.6%34.1%5f18108
14:17Wopbopaloomop silksWopbopaloomop0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Past Passion silksPast Passion0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Rollthedicebaby silksRollthedicebaby0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Angel Ang silksAngel Ang0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:17Christmas Is Comin silksChristmas Is Comin0Low39.8%29.7%5f18108
14:17Enamored silksEnamored0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:17Pulse of Fire silksPulse of Fire0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:17Duty's Call silksDuty's Call0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:17Maximus Meridius silksMaximus Meridius0High30.6%36.2%5f18108
14:47Adalida silksAdalida0High30.6%36.2%5f19108
14:47Dance of Angels silksDance of Angels0High30.6%36.2%5f19108
14:47Desert Treasure silksDesert Treasure0High30.6%36.2%5f19108
14:47London Is Blue silksLondon Is Blue0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47Silver Wraith silksSilver Wraith0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47HK Fourteen silksHK Fourteen0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47Emporess silksEmporess0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47Over Spiced silksOver Spiced0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47Cayman Tai silksCayman Tai0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108
14:47An Outlaw's Grace silksAn Outlaw's Grace0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108
14:47Courageous Sioux silksCourageous Sioux0Middle29.6%34.1%5f19108
14:47Moe's Legacy silksMoe's Legacy0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108
14:47Kiss And Run silksKiss And Run0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108
14:47Safari Dream silksSafari Dream0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108
14:47Level Up silksLevel Up0Low39.8%29.7%5f19108

Each declared runner placed in its third by stall order among the declared runners (first 50 runners of the meeting). Figures are the course and distance record for that third since 2019.

Latest Flat winners at Bath and their draw

8 Oct 26Sweet Horizon (GB) silksSweet Horizon (GB)6Middle81m2f4.00
8 Oct 26Pharitz Lahia (A) (A) silksPharitz Lahia (A) (A)5High51m2f3.50
8 Oct 26Albus Anne (GB) silksAlbus Anne (GB)8High91m2f5.50
8 Oct 26Court Drive (IRE) silksCourt Drive (IRE)9High105½f7.00
8 Oct 26Aethelstan Gold (GB) silksAethelstan Gold (GB)6Middle131m2.10
8 Oct 26Brilliant Star (GB) silksBrilliant Star (GB)1Low121m6f2.38
8 Oct 26Hi Lord (GB) silksHi Lord (GB)10High145f5.00
8 Oct 26Urumita (IRE) silksUrumita (IRE)8High75f4.50
8 Oct 26Pacific Storm (FR) silksPacific Storm (FR)2Low122m1f5.00
29 Sep 26Jeewan (A) (A) silksJeewan (A) (A)1Low61m2f2.75
29 Sep 26Moe's Legacy (GB) silksMoe's Legacy (GB)6Middle95½f5.00
29 Sep 26Silver Wraith (GB) silksSilver Wraith (GB)7High105½f6.00
29 Sep 26Last Dandelion (GB) silksLast Dandelion (GB)5Middle115½f11.00
29 Sep 26Forager (GB) silksForager (GB)7Middle125f19.00
29 Sep 26Divide And Conquer (IRE) silksDivide And Conquer (IRE)2Low61m1.25
29 Sep 26Chilly Breeze (GB) silksChilly Breeze (GB)9Middle121m9.50
29 Sep 26Hebridean Nomad (GB) silksHebridean Nomad (GB)5Middle131m5f7.00
29 Sep 26Oman (IRE) silksOman (IRE)2Low101m2f4.50
13 Sep 26Danehill Star (IRE) silksDanehill Star (IRE)10High101m9.00
13 Sep 26Footstepinthewoods (IRE) silksFootstepinthewoods (IRE)10High101m6.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Bath in the data with a full draw.

Bath win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f5½f1m1m2f1m3½f1m5f1m6fLow third 5f: 39.8%Low third 5½f: 29.3%Low third 1m: 29.2%Low third 1m2f: 25.5%Low third 1m3½f: 35.2%Low third 1m5f: 23.8%Low third 1m6f: 36.6%Middle third 5f: 29.6%Middle third 5½f: 37.2%Middle third 1m: 36.8%Middle third 1m2f: 25.5%Middle third 1m3½f: 37%Middle third 1m5f: 38.1%Middle third 1m6f: 26.8%High third 5f: 30.6%High third 5½f: 33.5%High third 1m: 33.9%High third 1m2f: 48.9%High third 1m3½f: 27.8%High third 1m5f: 38.1%High third 1m6f: 36.6%

Win % of races by Distance

Bath win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 29.1%Low third 2020: 25.8%Low third 2021: 28.3%Low third 2022: 30.4%Low third 2023: 34.3%Low third 2024: 35.1%Low third 2025: 34.1%Low third 2026: 29.8%29.8%Middle third 2019: 26.6%Middle third 2020: 38.2%Middle third 2021: 33.7%Middle third 2022: 23.9%Middle third 2023: 37%Middle third 2024: 33.3%Middle third 2025: 34.1%Middle third 2026: 36.9%36.9%High third 2019: 44.3%High third 2020: 36%High third 2021: 38%High third 2022: 45.7%High third 2023: 28.7%High third 2024: 31.5%High third 2025: 31.7%High third 2026: 33.3%33.3%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Bath?

Over 5½f, the most-run trip at Bath, the draw rates weak or none from 257 races. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the high third has won 47.5% against 36.5% by chance (rated moderate).

Does the kink in the Bath sprint course help low-drawn horses?

Bath's 5f and 5½f rows in the distance table show the low third against chance on the sprint course. Compare them with the mile and 1m2f rows, where races go further round the left-handed turn.

How do going and field size change the draw at Bath?

The bias matrix gives every Bath trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Bath draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 5½f the check reads stronger lately, from 78 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Bath?

Over 5½f, the most-run trip at Bath, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 33.1% of 257 races against 29.9% by chance. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the high third has won 47.5% against 36.5% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Bath over 5f?

Stall 5 has the best top-three record over 5f at Bath since 2016, placing in 35.2% of 145 runs against 29.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Bath?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 31.4% of Bath races against 29.7% by chance, and high draws 37.4% against 36.4%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does firm summer ground change the Bath draw?

Most Bath races are run on good or quicker ground, so the good to firm and good rows in the going table carry the most races. The softer ground rows are smaller, and any band under 20 races is hidden rather than shown on a thin sample.

How often are the Bath draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseBath course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseBath racecardsThe next meeting's full cardChepstow draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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Updated