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Nottingham draw bias: the flat straight and the oval

At Nottingham over 1m½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (324 races), middle draws 33% and high draws 38.6%, against 29.5%, 34.1% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Nottingham declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 14 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m2f
Trip where the draw stands out most
1,004
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 38.6% v 36.4%

At Nottingham over 1m½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (324 races), middle draws 33.0% and high draws 38.6%, against 29.5%, 34.1% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 324 races · Window: 6 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Nottingham draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1,00410,51629.3%29.4%36.6%34.1%34.4%36.4%29.2%28.6%28.2%28.6%Middle +2.5 pts0.234Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes1811,84129.8%29.3%38.1%34.3%32.6%36.5%30.7%29.8%28.2%29.5%Middle +3.8 pts0.460Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4644119.6%28.6%43.5%34.6%37.0%36.8%32.0%29.1%32.7%31.3%Middle +8.9 pts0.304Weak or none
5fGoodAll field sizes5759826.3%29.0%36.8%34.1%38.6%36.9%25.7%31.0%28.6%28.6%Middle +2.7 pts0.858Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes7880238.5%29.8%35.9%34.2%25.6%36.0%33.6%29.3%25.3%29.2%Low +8.7 pts0.115Weak or none
5fAll going8 to 11 runners1361,22828.7%28.7%39.7%34.5%31.6%36.8%32.8%34.9%32.0%33.2%Middle +5.2 pts0.353Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3951435.9%31.2%33.3%33.6%30.8%35.2%28.8%19.1%21.0%22.8%Low +4.7 pts0.783Not enough data
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3833715.8%28.0%50.0%35.0%34.2%37.1%32.6%34.2%34.4%33.8%Middle +15.0 pts0.102Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners4137526.8%28.4%34.1%34.4%39.0%37.3%28.0%35.9%33.6%32.8%High +1.7 pts0.967Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5751638.6%29.3%36.8%34.3%24.6%36.4%36.2%34.7%29.3%33.1%Low +9.3 pts0.137Weak or none
6fAll goingAll field sizes1821,95130.8%29.6%37.9%33.9%31.3%36.5%28.0%28.6%27.5%28.0%Middle +4.0 pts0.317Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes6163434.4%29.5%32.8%33.7%32.8%36.8%31.7%28.8%26.6%28.9%Low +4.9 pts0.670Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes6065331.7%29.7%40.0%34.0%28.3%36.3%29.1%25.8%28.0%27.6%Middle +6.0 pts0.414Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6166426.2%29.7%41.0%33.9%32.8%36.4%23.2%31.1%27.8%27.6%Middle +7.1 pts0.507Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1221,13832.8%28.7%36.1%34.2%31.1%37.1%32.0%32.0%32.4%32.2%Low +4.1 pts0.367Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners5369826.4%31.6%39.6%33.3%34.0%35.1%23.2%23.6%21.6%22.8%Middle +6.3 pts0.578Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4339541.9%28.4%30.2%34.2%27.9%37.4%38.9%33.6%27.0%32.7%Low +13.5 pts0.139Weak or none
6fGood8 to 11 runners4138631.7%28.7%39.0%34.3%29.3%37.0%32.4%29.5%33.6%31.9%Middle +4.7 pts0.589Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3835723.7%29.1%39.5%34.0%36.8%36.9%24.0%33.1%37.1%31.9%Middle +5.5 pts0.701Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2127333.3%30.9%38.1%33.6%28.6%35.5%23.8%27.2%18.6%23.1%Middle +4.5 pts0.800Not enough data
1m½fAll goingAll field sizes3243,40828.7%29.5%33.0%34.1%38.6%36.4%30.0%26.7%29.0%28.5%High +2.2 pts0.742Weak or none
1m½fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes7575626.7%29.0%34.7%34.5%38.7%36.5%30.6%29.7%29.1%29.8%High +2.2 pts0.885Weak or none
1m½fGoodAll field sizes1041,09628.8%29.6%34.6%33.7%37.5%36.7%31.3%27.7%26.9%28.5%Middle +0.9 pts0.969Weak or none
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes1451,55629.7%29.8%31.0%34.1%39.3%36.1%28.8%24.6%30.4%28.0%High +3.2 pts0.670Weak or none
1m½fAll going8 to 11 runners2422,30128.5%28.9%33.9%34.3%38.0%36.8%34.6%30.3%30.3%31.6%High +1.2 pts0.942Weak or none
1m½fAll going12 to 15 runners6887927.9%31.7%32.4%33.4%39.7%34.9%22.3%20.1%27.0%23.2%High +4.8 pts0.676Weak or none
1m½fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners6054821.7%28.3%35.0%34.8%43.3%36.8%32.7%34.2%31.7%32.8%High +6.5 pts0.443Weak or none
1m½fGood8 to 11 runners7976331.6%28.9%34.2%33.9%35.4%37.2%36.2%31.4%26.8%31.1%Low +2.7 pts0.875Weak or none
1m½fGood12 to 15 runners2228422.7%31.8%40.9%33.1%36.4%35.2%20.0%21.3%28.0%23.2%Middle +7.8 pts0.611Not enough data
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners10399030.1%29.1%33.0%34.4%36.9%36.5%34.4%27.4%32.3%31.2%Low +1.0 pts0.953Weak or none
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3545225.7%31.5%25.7%33.6%48.6%34.9%21.1%19.7%28.5%23.2%High +13.7 pts0.235Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes2202,35628.2%29.6%41.4%34.2%30.5%36.2%28.1%28.8%27.2%28.0%Middle +7.2 pts0.065Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes5152423.5%29.7%49.0%34.2%27.5%36.1%28.0%30.3%29.1%29.2%Middle +14.8 pts0.081Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes7681627.6%29.6%34.2%34.2%38.2%36.2%29.2%27.3%27.5%27.9%High +2.0 pts0.916Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes931,01631.2%29.4%43.0%34.2%25.8%36.4%27.2%29.2%26.0%27.5%Middle +8.8 pts0.079Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners1501,40725.3%28.9%44.7%34.6%30.0%36.5%31.7%32.9%31.3%32.0%Middle +10.1 pts0.034Moderate
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners6688533.3%31.0%34.8%33.4%31.8%35.6%23.4%22.6%21.3%22.4%Low +2.3 pts0.809Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3632427.8%29.2%50.0%34.4%22.2%36.4%31.6%36.9%31.4%33.3%Middle +15.6 pts0.103Not enough data
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners5147825.5%28.8%35.3%34.8%39.2%36.4%32.6%30.1%33.3%32.0%High +2.8 pts0.856Weak or none
1m2fGood12 to 15 runners2533832.0%31.1%32.0%33.1%36.0%35.8%24.8%23.2%19.0%22.2%Low +0.9 pts0.992Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners6360523.8%28.7%49.2%34.6%27.0%36.7%31.0%33.0%29.7%31.2%Middle +14.6 pts0.049Moderate
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2736348.1%30.9%29.6%33.6%22.2%35.5%23.2%23.0%20.9%22.3%Low +17.2 pts0.131Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes7574832.0%28.8%30.7%34.7%37.3%36.5%30.3%30.2%29.8%30.1%Low +3.2 pts0.726Weak or none
1m6fGoodAll field sizes3130529.0%29.1%38.7%34.4%32.3%36.5%35.6%27.9%28.8%30.5%Middle +4.3 pts0.849Not enough data
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3232037.5%28.9%21.9%35.1%40.6%36.0%28.0%31.3%30.4%30.0%Low +8.6 pts0.270Not enough data
1m6fAll going8 to 11 runners5852127.6%28.0%36.2%35.1%36.2%36.8%33.3%34.1%32.8%33.4%Middle +1.1 pts0.985Weak or none
1m6fGood8 to 11 runners2522420.0%28.4%48.0%34.6%32.0%37.0%39.1%32.5%30.1%33.5%Middle +13.4 pts0.353Not enough data
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2522940.0%28.3%20.0%35.5%40.0%36.3%30.8%33.3%33.7%32.8%Low +11.7 pts0.224Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes2019425.0%28.6%35.0%33.8%40.0%37.6%26.8%36.9%28.8%30.9%High +2.4 pts0.939Not enough data

Flat races at Nottingham with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 6 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Nottingham draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances1,00429.3%36.6%34.4%29.4%34.1%36.4%Weak or none24030.4%33.8%35.8%Weak or noneGone lately
5f18129.8%38.1%32.6%29.3%34.3%36.5%Weak or none3930.8%41.0%28.2%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f18230.8%37.9%31.3%29.6%33.9%36.5%Weak or none4938.8%26.5%34.7%Weak or noneGone lately
1m½f32428.7%33.0%38.6%29.5%34.1%36.4%Weak or none8428.6%28.6%42.9%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m2f22028.2%41.4%30.5%29.6%34.2%36.2%Weak or none5131.4%41.2%27.5%Weak or noneHolding
1m6f7532.0%30.7%37.3%28.8%34.7%36.5%Weak or none1216.7%41.7%41.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m2025.0%35.0%40.0%28.6%33.8%37.6%Not enough data30.0%33.3%66.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Nottingham stall by stall at each distance

5f11661911.4%10.2%27.1%30.7%-3.6
5f2170169.4%10.3%37.1%30.9%+6.2
5f31742112.1%10.2%31.0%30.7%+0.3
5f41652012.1%10.3%34.5%31.0%+3.6
5f5165169.7%10.3%30.9%30.9%+0.1
5f61692011.8%10.3%33.1%30.8%+2.3
5f7169169.5%10.3%29.6%31.0%-1.4
5f8167169.6%10.2%29.9%30.7%-0.8
5f9133118.3%9.6%28.6%28.9%-0.3
5f1010354.9%9.2%23.3%27.6%-4.3
5f118189.9%8.7%21.0%26.0%-5.0
5f1256610.7%8.0%28.6%24.0%+4.6
6f11601610.0%9.7%29.4%29.2%+0.2
6f2173158.7%9.7%30.1%29.1%+1.0
6f31691911.2%9.8%30.8%29.3%+1.5
6f4165127.3%9.8%21.8%29.4%-7.6
6f51671710.2%9.8%34.1%29.3%+4.8
6f61702212.9%9.7%30.6%29.0%+1.6
6f7169158.9%9.8%31.4%29.3%+2.1
6f81682011.9%9.8%25.6%29.3%-3.7
6f915285.3%9.4%22.4%28.2%-5.8
6f1012386.5%9.0%28.5%26.9%+1.6
6f11991616.2%8.5%36.4%25.4%+10.9
6f128289.8%8.1%32.9%24.2%+8.7
6f135511.8%7.5%16.4%22.6%-6.2
1m½f1297206.7%9.8%27.9%29.5%-1.6
1m½f22973110.4%9.8%31.0%29.3%+1.6
1m½f32983411.4%9.8%31.9%29.4%+2.5
1m½f4301237.6%9.9%32.2%29.6%+2.6
1m½f53003311.0%9.9%28.7%29.7%-1.0
1m½f6309299.4%9.9%27.8%29.6%-1.8
1m½f7302268.6%9.9%27.5%29.6%-2.1
1m½f82953511.9%9.9%33.2%29.6%+3.6
1m½f9272238.5%9.6%25.0%28.8%-3.8
1m½f102332812.0%9.2%23.6%27.5%-3.9
1m½f11174179.8%8.7%25.3%26.0%-0.8
1m½f1211676.0%8.3%21.6%24.8%-3.3
1m½f137679.2%7.6%34.2%22.9%+11.3
1m½f1459813.6%7.4%28.8%22.2%+6.6
1m2f1198168.1%9.7%24.7%29.1%-4.4
1m2f22002010.0%9.8%32.0%29.3%+2.7
1m2f3204199.3%9.7%30.4%29.2%+1.2
1m2f42062512.1%9.7%32.5%29.2%+3.3
1m2f5203188.9%9.7%26.6%29.2%-2.6
1m2f62082512.0%9.7%30.3%29.1%+1.2
1m2f71932110.9%9.7%29.5%29.1%+0.5
1m2f8205209.8%9.7%33.7%29.1%+4.6
1m2f91821910.4%9.5%23.6%28.5%-4.9
1m2f10149117.4%9.0%22.1%27.0%-4.9
1m2f1112154.1%8.5%24.8%25.6%-0.8
1m2f129233.3%8.0%22.8%24.1%-1.3
1m2f1367710.4%7.6%29.9%22.8%+7.1
1m6f169811.6%10.4%24.6%31.1%-6.4
1m6f269811.6%10.5%37.7%31.5%+6.2
1m6f369710.1%10.4%37.7%31.2%+6.4
1m6f468913.2%10.5%38.2%31.4%+6.8
1m6f56945.8%10.4%24.6%31.2%-6.5
1m6f6701217.1%10.5%31.4%31.4%0.0
1m6f76569.2%10.4%24.6%31.1%-6.5
1m6f86757.5%10.4%37.3%31.3%+6.1
1m6f95846.9%10.1%31.0%30.4%+0.6

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Nottingham draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances66028.9%29.4%35.3%34.2%35.9%36.4%29.1%28.8%29.5%
5f11327.4%29.3%40.7%34.1%31.9%36.6%29.2%32.0%29.3%
6f12330.9%29.5%35.0%34.0%34.1%36.5%26.3%27.5%30.1%
1m½f21427.6%29.6%31.8%34.1%41.1%36.3%31.1%27.1%29.8%
1m2f14728.6%29.4%39.5%34.3%32.0%36.3%28.2%28.5%29.0%
1m6f4637.0%28.6%23.9%34.8%39.1%36.6%31.1%30.6%29.5%

Flat races at Nottingham with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Nottingham draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low66028.9%29.4%9.5%2,01219129.1%
Middle66035.3%34.2%10.1%2,30923328.8%
High66035.9%36.4%9.6%2,47123729.5%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Nottingham draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances1,08428.2%28.8%34.0%33.4%37.8%37.8%
5f21026.7%28.4%33.8%33.2%39.5%38.4%
6f19629.6%29.0%34.2%33.3%36.2%37.7%
1m½f31427.1%29.0%32.8%33.7%40.4%37.3%
1m2f24030.4%28.7%35.0%33.6%34.6%37.7%
1m6f9429.8%28.5%34.0%33.4%36.2%38.1%
2m2623.1%28.4%42.3%32.7%34.6%38.9%

Every Flat race at Nottingham with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Nottingham draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances42427.1%27.8%32.1%32.3%40.8%39.9%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances50228.3%28.7%35.9%34.4%36.1%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances14030.0%31.6%33.6%33.4%36.4%35.0%
3 to 7 runners5f9725.8%27.3%25.8%32.1%48.5%40.6%
8 to 11 runners5f9228.3%28.9%39.1%34.2%32.6%36.8%
3 to 7 runners6f7327.4%28.2%32.9%32.1%39.7%39.7%
8 to 11 runners6f8132.1%28.5%32.1%34.5%35.8%37.1%
12 to 15 runners6f3729.7%31.5%37.8%33.2%32.4%35.3%
3 to 7 runners1m½f10026.0%27.8%35.0%32.6%39.0%39.5%
8 to 11 runners1m½f17128.7%28.9%32.7%34.4%39.2%36.7%
12 to 15 runners1m½f3920.5%32.3%30.8%33.4%48.7%34.4%
3 to 7 runners1m2f9333.3%27.6%28.0%32.5%38.7%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m2f10925.7%28.8%42.2%34.6%32.1%36.6%
12 to 15 runners1m2f3435.3%31.3%32.4%33.6%32.4%35.2%
3 to 7 runners1m6f4822.9%28.3%43.8%32.1%33.3%39.6%
8 to 11 runners1m6f3531.4%27.7%28.6%35.3%40.0%37.0%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Nottingham draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances13624.3%29.0%39.0%36.7%36.8%
GoodAll distances23327.9%29.4%36.5%36.5%36.1%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances7930.4%29.3%32.9%36.7%36.7%
SoftAll distances16230.9%29.8%35.8%36.2%33.3%
HeavyAll distances5038.0%29.2%30.0%36.3%32.0%
Good to firm or firmer5f2711.1%29.5%40.7%36.7%48.1%
Good5f3925.6%28.7%38.5%37.0%35.9%
Soft5f3336.4%29.7%24.2%35.8%39.4%
Good to firm or firmer6f3339.4%28.5%36.4%37.4%24.2%
Good6f4427.3%29.7%31.8%36.1%40.9%
Good to firm or firmer1m½f4119.5%29.2%48.8%36.3%31.7%
Good1m½f7128.2%29.7%39.4%36.3%33.8%
Good to soft or yielding1m½f2832.1%29.2%32.1%36.4%35.7%
Soft1m½f5825.9%30.2%44.8%36.0%29.3%
Good to firm or firmer1m2f2920.7%29.3%27.6%36.1%51.7%
Good1m2f5429.6%29.4%38.9%36.2%31.5%
Soft1m2f3531.4%29.7%28.6%36.6%40.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Nottingham individual stalls, most-run distances

1m½f1198115.6%10.1%26.3%
1m½f22002211.0%10.0%32.5%
1m½f31952110.8%10.0%30.8%
1m½f4196168.2%10.1%35.2%
1m½f52022210.9%10.1%29.7%
1m½f6205209.8%10.1%28.3%
1m½f7198178.6%10.1%29.3%
1m½f82002412.0%10.1%33.0%
1m½f9180137.2%9.8%23.9%
1m½f101471912.9%9.4%25.2%
1m½f111081312.0%8.9%26.9%
1m2f113364.5%9.9%21.1%
1m2f21351410.4%9.9%33.3%
1m2f31371510.9%9.9%31.4%
1m2f41392115.1%9.9%36.7%
1m2f5139117.9%9.9%24.5%
1m2f61401611.4%9.9%27.9%
1m2f71291511.6%9.9%30.2%
1m2f81401510.7%9.9%35.0%
1m2f91201310.8%9.6%25.8%

The two most-run distances at Nottingham in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Nottingham 1m½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 28.7%Since 2016 Middle: 33%Since 2016 High: 38.6%Since 2024 Low: 28.6%Since 2024 Middle: 28.6%Since 2024 High: 42.9%Expected by chance Low: 29.5%Expected by chance Middle: 34.1%Expected by chance High: 36.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Nottingham 1m½f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Win % Stall 1: 5.6%5.6%Win % Stall 2: 11%11%Win % Stall 3: 10.8%10.8%Win % Stall 4: 8.2%8.2%Win % Stall 5: 10.9%10.9%Win % Stall 6: 9.8%9.8%Win % Stall 7: 8.6%8.6%Win % Stall 8: 12%12%Win % Stall 9: 7.2%7.2%Win % Stall 10: 12.9%12.9%Win % Stall 11: 12%12%Expected by chance Stall 1: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 2: 10%10%Expected by chance Stall 3: 10%10%Expected by chance Stall 4: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 5: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 6: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 7: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 8: 10.1%10.1%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9.8%9.8%Expected by chance Stall 10: 9.4%9.4%Expected by chance Stall 11: 8.9%8.9%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Nottingham and their draw

14 Oct 26Mayaada (IRE) silksMayaada (IRE)4Middle101m½f2.00
14 Oct 26Rambuso Creek (IRE) silksRambuso Creek (IRE)6Middle95f4.00
14 Oct 26Vega's Virtue (IRE) silksVega's Virtue (IRE)5Middle81m½f5.50
14 Oct 26Green Falcon (GB) silksGreen Falcon (GB)11High102m3.50
14 Oct 26Knights Charge (IRE) silksKnights Charge (IRE)5Middle111m2f1.83
14 Oct 26Enriched (GB) silksEnriched (GB)2Low75f3.25
14 Oct 26Leading Role (GB)11High111m½f7.00
14 Oct 26Adamlyi (GB) silksAdamlyi (GB)4Low141m½f3.50
7 Oct 26Tamzan (GB) silksTamzan (GB)2Low91m½f5.00
7 Oct 26Drish Samphire (IRE) silksDrish Samphire (IRE)10Middle146f12.00
7 Oct 26Edwin Hubble (IRE) silksEdwin Hubble (IRE)6Middle101m2f5.50
7 Oct 26Sudu (GB) silksSudu (GB)8Middle131m2f10.00
7 Oct 26Foscarini (IRE) silksFoscarini (IRE)2Middle51m2f5.50
7 Oct 26Gainful (GB) silksGainful (GB)4High51m½f1.83
7 Oct 26Nowshesdancing (GB) silksNowshesdancing (GB)4Middle71m6f6.50
7 Oct 26Castlerock Girl (IRE) silksCastlerock Girl (IRE)5Middle86f3.00
1 Oct 26Royal Accord (GB) silksRoyal Accord (GB)11High156f13.00
1 Oct 26Pleasant Man (GB) silksPleasant Man (GB)7Middle141m2f23.00
1 Oct 26Kaindy (IRE) silksKaindy (IRE)3Low91m½f2.00
1 Oct 26Thi Qar (IRE) silksThi Qar (IRE)4Middle71m½f1.33

The 20 most recent Flat races at Nottingham in the data with a full draw.

Nottingham win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f1m½f1m2f1m6fLow third 5f: 27.4%Low third 6f: 30.9%Low third 1m½f: 27.6%Low third 1m2f: 28.6%Low third 1m6f: 37%Middle third 5f: 40.7%Middle third 6f: 35%Middle third 1m½f: 31.8%Middle third 1m2f: 39.5%Middle third 1m6f: 23.9%High third 5f: 31.9%High third 6f: 34.1%High third 1m½f: 41.1%High third 1m2f: 32%High third 1m6f: 39.1%

Win % of races by Distance

Nottingham win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
10%20%30%40%50%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 33.6%Low third 2020: 20.5%Low third 2021: 25%Low third 2022: 31.8%Low third 2023: 23.5%Low third 2024: 28%Low third 2025: 29.3%Low third 2026: 35.4%35.4%Middle third 2019: 36.3%Middle third 2020: 43.6%Middle third 2021: 39.3%Middle third 2022: 30.7%Middle third 2023: 33.8%Middle third 2024: 33.3%Middle third 2025: 35.4%Middle third 2026: 32.3%32.3%High third 2019: 30.1%High third 2020: 35.9%High third 2021: 36.6%High third 2022: 37.5%High third 2023: 42.6%High third 2024: 38.7%High third 2025: 35.4%High third 2026: 32.3%32.3%

Win % of races by Year

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Members get every Nottingham racecard with RWS scores, market moves across 20+ bookmakers, Angles and FormLines+ on each runner, to read alongside these draw thirds.

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Is there a draw bias at Nottingham?

Over 1m½f, the most-run trip at Nottingham, the draw rates weak or none from 324 races. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the middle third has won 41.4% against 34.2% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is a low draw worth anything in Nottingham's round-course races?

Nottingham's 1m½f and longer trips run round the left-handed bend, and each has a row in the distance table. Compare those rows with the straight 5f and 6f rows.

How do going and field size change the draw at Nottingham?

The bias matrix gives every Nottingham trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Nottingham draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m½f the check reads stronger lately, from 84 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Nottingham?

Over 1m½f, the most-run trip at Nottingham, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 28.7% of 324 races against 29.5% by chance. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the middle third has won 41.4% against 34.2% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Nottingham over 5f?

Stall 2 has the best top-three record over 5f at Nottingham since 2016, placing in 37.1% of 170 runs against 29.5% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Nottingham?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.3% of Nottingham races against 29.4% by chance, and high draws 34.4% against 36.4%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Are Nottingham's thirds close to chance overall?

Across all distances pooled, Nottingham's low, middle and high thirds sit very close to the share expected by chance. The distance rows show where a trip pulls away from that pattern.

How often are the Nottingham draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseNottingham course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseNottingham racecardsThe next meeting's full cardLeicester draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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