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Roscommon draw bias: summer and autumn Flat races

At Roscommon over 7½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (115 races), middle draws 35.7% and high draws 35.7%, against 30.5%, 34.1% and 35.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Roscommon declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 12 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m4f
Trip where the draw stands out most
333
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 35.7% v 34.1%

At Roscommon over 7½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (115 races), middle draws 35.7% and high draws 35.7%, against 30.5%, 34.1% and 35.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 1m4f, where the low third has won 43.2% of 81 races against 30.7% by chance (moderate).Sample: 115 races · Window: 9 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Roscommon draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3334,12533.9%30.2%30.6%33.8%35.4%36.0%28.4%21.4%23.3%24.2%Low +3.7 pts0.279Weak or none
7fAll goingAll field sizes5366437.7%30.4%30.2%33.8%32.1%35.7%27.9%21.4%22.9%23.9%Low +7.3 pts0.513Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes2733333.3%30.2%22.2%33.8%44.4%36.0%27.5%21.4%24.4%24.3%High +8.4 pts0.431Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2025440.0%31.0%45.0%33.9%15.0%35.1%27.8%20.9%22.5%23.6%Middle +11.1 pts0.168Not enough data
7fAll going12 to 15 runners3549348.6%31.4%28.6%33.4%22.9%35.2%29.7%15.2%19.7%21.3%Low +17.2 pts0.080Not enough data
7½fAll goingAll field sizes1151,44228.7%30.5%35.7%34.1%35.7%35.4%26.2%23.2%22.6%23.9%Middle +1.6 pts0.903Weak or none
7½fGoodAll field sizes5468331.5%30.6%38.9%33.9%29.6%35.5%28.4%25.1%18.3%23.7%Middle +5.0 pts0.623Weak or none
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6175926.2%30.4%32.8%34.3%41.0%35.3%24.1%21.5%26.6%24.1%High +5.7 pts0.623Weak or none
7½fAll going8 to 11 runners3634922.2%28.3%30.6%34.7%47.2%37.0%29.3%27.3%35.7%30.9%High +10.2 pts0.431Not enough data
7½fAll going12 to 15 runners791,09331.6%31.5%38.0%33.8%30.4%34.7%25.3%21.9%18.2%21.7%Middle +4.2 pts0.661Weak or none
7½fGood12 to 15 runners3650236.1%31.9%41.7%33.6%22.2%34.5%28.1%24.9%12.1%21.5%Middle +8.1 pts0.291Not enough data
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners4359127.9%31.2%34.9%34.0%37.2%34.9%22.8%19.4%23.3%21.8%High +2.3 pts0.894Weak or none
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes4048630.0%29.7%20.0%33.6%50.0%36.7%25.5%17.8%30.3%24.7%High +13.3 pts0.127Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2327339.1%29.5%21.7%33.8%39.1%36.7%30.9%21.7%24.0%25.3%Low +9.6 pts0.417Not enough data
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners2938327.6%30.4%17.2%33.3%55.2%36.3%24.1%15.6%28.1%22.7%High +18.9 pts0.075Not enough data
1m2½fAll goingAll field sizes2930631.0%28.2%58.6%34.1%10.3%37.6%40.2%31.7%16.5%28.4%Middle +24.5 pts0.004Not enough data
1m2½fAll going8 to 11 runners2322630.4%27.8%56.5%34.6%13.0%37.6%47.6%28.2%20.0%30.5%Middle +21.9 pts0.031Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes811,05343.2%30.7%18.5%33.4%38.3%35.9%30.4%16.3%23.1%23.1%Low +12.5 pts0.008Moderate
1m4fGoodAll field sizes3341357.6%30.5%21.2%33.3%21.2%36.2%39.4%17.5%16.8%24.0%Low +27.1 pts0.003Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4762634.0%31.0%14.9%33.4%51.1%35.6%25.1%14.4%27.8%22.5%High +15.5 pts0.018Moderate
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners2220850.0%28.8%18.2%34.2%31.8%37.0%43.3%23.9%29.9%31.7%Low +21.2 pts0.072Not enough data
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners4562137.8%31.6%20.0%33.6%42.2%34.8%27.0%16.7%21.8%21.7%High +7.4 pts0.154Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2636626.9%31.7%11.5%33.6%61.5%34.8%22.4%13.8%27.6%21.3%High +26.7 pts0.010Not enough data

Flat races at Roscommon with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 9 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Roscommon draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances33333.9%30.6%35.4%30.2%33.8%36.0%Weak or none11535.7%38.3%26.1%Weak or noneHolding
7f5337.7%30.2%32.1%30.4%33.8%35.7%Weak or none0---Not enough dataToo few recent races
7½f11528.7%35.7%35.7%30.5%34.1%35.4%Weak or none6134.4%44.3%21.3%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m2f4030.0%20.0%50.0%29.7%33.6%36.7%Weak or none0---Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2½f2931.0%58.6%10.3%28.2%34.1%37.6%Not enough data1822.2%61.1%16.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f8143.2%18.5%38.3%30.7%33.4%35.9%Moderate3644.4%16.7%38.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Roscommon stall by stall at each distance

7½f110543.8%8.3%24.8%24.9%-0.2
7½f21061211.3%8.3%30.2%24.8%+5.4
7½f310476.7%8.2%30.8%24.7%+6.0
7½f410099.0%8.3%22.0%24.9%-2.9
7½f5106109.4%8.3%28.3%24.8%+3.5
7½f61021211.8%8.4%27.5%25.1%+2.4
7½f710565.7%8.3%17.1%24.9%-7.8
7½f810387.8%8.3%26.2%25.0%+1.2
7½f9971010.3%8.1%28.9%24.2%+4.7
7½f10851112.9%7.9%29.4%23.7%+5.7
7½f117845.1%7.8%19.2%23.5%-4.2
7½f127579.3%7.5%14.7%22.6%-7.9
7½f137545.3%7.4%17.3%22.2%-4.9
7½f145547.3%7.1%16.4%21.4%-5.1
7½f155048.0%7.1%18.0%21.3%-3.3
1m4f173912.3%8.1%31.5%24.2%+7.3
1m4f267913.4%8.0%37.3%24.1%+13.2
1m4f3721013.9%8.0%31.9%24.1%+7.9
1m4f47057.1%8.0%24.3%24.1%+0.2
1m4f57145.6%8.1%29.6%24.4%+5.2
1m4f66922.9%8.0%14.5%24.1%-9.6
1m4f77245.6%8.1%19.4%24.2%-4.7
1m4f86657.6%8.0%24.2%23.9%+0.3
1m4f97057.1%7.8%15.7%23.5%-7.8
1m4f106822.9%7.8%17.6%23.3%-5.7
1m4f116046.7%7.4%18.3%22.2%-3.9
1m4f125423.7%7.4%20.4%22.2%-1.8
1m4f135048.0%7.2%14.0%21.5%-7.5
1m4f145259.6%7.2%23.1%21.5%+1.6

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Roscommon draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances26136.4%30.3%31.0%33.7%32.6%36.0%29.3%21.0%22.6%
7f2951.7%30.6%27.6%33.6%20.7%35.8%32.1%18.9%21.5%
7½f10330.1%30.5%37.9%34.1%32.0%35.4%27.5%23.7%21.1%
1m2f2532.0%30.4%16.0%33.1%52.0%36.6%24.0%15.2%31.0%
1m2½f2330.4%28.2%56.5%34.3%13.0%37.5%36.2%31.3%19.8%
1m4f6944.9%30.8%18.8%33.2%36.2%36.0%32.1%15.6%22.5%

Flat races at Roscommon with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Roscommon draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low26136.4%30.3%9.6%9929529.3%
Middle26131.0%33.7%7.4%1,0928121.0%
High26132.6%36.0%7.3%1,1638522.6%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Roscommon draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances31134.1%29.8%31.8%33.4%34.1%36.8%
7f3447.1%30.5%29.4%33.0%23.5%36.5%
7½f11828.0%30.3%39.8%33.7%32.2%36.0%
1m2f3727.0%28.9%21.6%32.9%51.4%38.2%
1m2½f3228.1%26.9%50.0%34.4%21.9%38.7%
1m4f7844.9%30.4%17.9%32.7%37.2%36.9%

Every Flat race at Roscommon with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Roscommon draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances5022.0%26.9%36.0%31.7%42.0%41.4%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances9130.8%28.6%33.0%34.4%36.3%37.0%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances15838.6%31.3%31.0%33.5%30.4%35.2%
12 to 15 runners7f2060.0%31.1%20.0%33.3%20.0%35.6%
8 to 11 runners7½f3324.2%28.3%30.3%34.6%45.5%37.1%
12 to 15 runners7½f7032.9%31.5%41.4%33.8%25.7%34.7%
12 to 15 runners1m2f2138.1%30.5%14.3%32.9%47.6%36.6%
8 to 11 runners1m4f2050.0%28.7%15.0%34.1%35.0%37.1%
12 to 15 runners1m4f3740.5%31.8%21.6%33.4%37.8%34.8%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Roscommon draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances12336.6%30.3%30.1%36.1%33.3%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances4337.2%30.3%25.6%35.6%37.2%
SoftAll distances7335.6%30.6%35.6%35.9%28.8%
Good7½f5431.5%30.6%29.6%35.5%38.9%
Soft7½f3330.3%30.7%33.3%35.2%36.4%
Good1m4f3056.7%30.3%20.0%36.2%23.3%
Soft1m4f2334.8%31.1%52.2%36.5%13.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Roscommon 7½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 28.7%Since 2016 Middle: 35.7%Since 2016 High: 35.7%Since 2024 Low: 34.4%Since 2024 Middle: 44.3%Since 2024 High: 21.3%Expected by chance Low: 30.5%Expected by chance Middle: 34.1%Expected by chance High: 35.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Roscommon win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%7f7½f1m2f1m2½f1m4fLow third 7f: 51.7%Low third 7½f: 30.1%Low third 1m2f: 32%Low third 1m2½f: 30.4%Low third 1m4f: 44.9%Middle third 7f: 27.6%Middle third 7½f: 37.9%Middle third 1m2f: 16%Middle third 1m2½f: 56.5%Middle third 1m4f: 18.8%High third 7f: 20.7%High third 7½f: 32%High third 1m2f: 52%High third 1m2½f: 13%High third 1m4f: 36.2%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Roscommon and their draw

12 Oct 26Zarenakarena (IRE) silksZarenakarena (IRE)6Middle147½f17.00
12 Oct 26Inver Bay (IRE) silksInver Bay (IRE)6Middle161m4f6.50
12 Oct 26Pillar Of Hope (GB) silksPillar Of Hope (GB)1Low161m4f6.50
12 Oct 26Ryefield Dasher (IRE) silksRyefield Dasher (IRE)1Low51m2½f4.00
12 Oct 26Teoest (IRE) silksTeoest (IRE)6Middle111m2½f2.75
12 Oct 26Cisterna (IRE) silksCisterna (IRE)2Low137½f9.00
12 Oct 26Contrary To Law (IRE) silksContrary To Law (IRE)8Middle147½f4.50
12 Oct 26State Of Wyoming (IRE) silksState Of Wyoming (IRE)5Middle117½f2.75
31 Aug 26Priorstown (IRE) silksPriorstown (IRE)17High161m4f5.50
31 Aug 26Letiza (IRE) silksLetiza (IRE)4Low151m4f8.00
31 Aug 26Miss Romagna (IRE) silksMiss Romagna (IRE)7Middle151m4f8.00
31 Aug 26Hazdann (IRE) silksHazdann (IRE)5High51m2½f2.00
31 Aug 26Goal Exceeded (GB) silksGoal Exceeded (GB)3Low127½f4.50
31 Aug 26Phoenix Pairc (IRE) silksPhoenix Pairc (IRE)17High147½f8.00
31 Aug 26South Dakota (IRE) silksSouth Dakota (IRE)4Middle97½f4.00
18 Aug 26Fianna (IRE) silksFianna (IRE)1Low161m4f15.00
18 Aug 26Magnum Cor (IRE) silksMagnum Cor (IRE)15High141m4f2.00
18 Aug 26Sagasti (IRE) silksSagasti (IRE)10Middle147½f29.00
18 Aug 26Save The Sixes (IRE) silksSave The Sixes (IRE)10Middle157½f17.00
18 Aug 26Emotional Hedging (IRE) silksEmotional Hedging (IRE)4Middle87½f8.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Roscommon in the data with a full draw.

Roscommon win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 44.4%Low third 2020: 48.1%Low third 2021: 36.4%Low third 2022: 35.7%Low third 2023: 22.6%Low third 2024: 30.6%Low third 2025: 40.5%Low third 2026: 35.7%35.7%Middle third 2019: 18.5%Middle third 2020: 22.2%Middle third 2021: 24.2%Middle third 2022: 25%Middle third 2023: 35.5%Middle third 2024: 30.6%Middle third 2025: 35.1%Middle third 2026: 47.6%47.6%High third 2019: 37%High third 2020: 29.6%High third 2021: 39.4%High third 2022: 39.3%High third 2023: 41.9%High third 2024: 38.9%High third 2025: 24.3%High third 2026: 16.7%16.7%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Roscommon?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Roscommon, the draw rates weak or none from 115 races. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the low third has won 43.2% against 30.7% by chance (rated moderate).

Is a high draw a problem on Roscommon's right-handed bends?

Across all distances pooled, the low third at Roscommon has run above its expected share and the middle and high thirds below. The sample is modest, so read the race count first.

How do going and field size change the draw at Roscommon?

The bias matrix gives every Roscommon trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Roscommon draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7½f the check reads no clear lean in either period, from 61 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Roscommon?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Roscommon, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 28.7% of 115 races against 30.5% by chance. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the low third has won 43.2% against 30.7% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Roscommon over 7½f?

Stall 3 has the best top-three record over 7½f at Roscommon since 2016, placing in 30.8% of 104 runs against 23.9% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Roscommon?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 33.9% of Roscommon races against 30.2% by chance, and high draws 35.4% against 36%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

How many Roscommon Flat races have fields big enough to count?

Roscommon has 261 Flat races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Several trips fall below the 20-race minimum and are hidden rather than shown on thin samples.

How often are the Roscommon draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseRoscommon course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseRoscommon racecardsThe next meeting's full cardSligo draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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