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Pace bias by course and distance

Today's races with a pace record are listed fresh every morning.

40 races today at a course and distance with a pace record in the table · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
17.7%
Flat front runners win %
6.8%
Flat hold-up win %
21.8%
Jumps front runners win %
40
Today's races with a record

In British and Irish Flat racing from 2019 to 2025, front runners won 17.7% against 6.8% for hold-up horsesSample: 88,346 races · Window: 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2025 · Source: RaceWatch results database, race comments and declarations (GB and IRE), Industry SP

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Pace bias by course and distance, NH

Tipperary2m35.1%2.2%9410.4%3.9%-
Leopardstown2m4f26.3%3.3%5110.9%1.6%-
Ascot2m30.3%3.7%8013.5%3.7%-
Limerick2m5f21.6%2.7%6412.3%3.0%-
Sligo2m2f26.4%3.5%10713.0%3.9%-
Wexford3m20.9%5.5%5111.8%4.2%-
Killarney2m7f32.1%4.7%7012.9%2.6%-
Bangor-on-Dee2m1f38.0%3.0%17014.5%2.6%-
Stratford2m4f30.0%10.6%7114.5%1.7%-
Galway2m1f23.3%3.1%11912.0%2.0%-
Cartmel2m5f28.3%9.2%6312.2%9.4%-
Warwick3m28.8%5.6%7315.2%4.4%-
Musselburgh2m4f29.0%5.5%7913.5%6.6%-
Galway2m7f20.6%2.3%8011.7%2.8%-
Hereford2m5f29.2%8.3%6713.9%7.4%-
Bangor-on-Dee2m7f29.3%5.0%7615.5%6.0%-
Haydock3m1f22.6%4.5%7412.4%7.9%-
Cartmel3m2f25.7%7.0%8613.7%9.7%-
Limerick2m3f24.7%3.3%8912.0%1.6%-
Killarney2m4f23.5%3.4%6311.4%3.6%-
Killarney2m1f27.0%2.3%15414.1%3.6%-
Naas2m4f28.6%3.7%5511.7%2.6%-
Chepstow2m31.7%3.2%26713.6%4.5%-
Clonmel2m4f21.7%3.6%12911.5%4.1%-
Downpatrick2m6f23.3%2.5%11113.7%5.2%-
Naas2m29.7%2.5%22612.0%1.2%-
Fairyhouse2m1f24.4%1.9%6113.7%4.8%-
Warwick2m3f27.0%4.5%8512.0%9.5%-
Market Rasen2m6f23.9%9.5%9613.2%7.0%-
Fontwell2m4f30.4%5.8%7718.7%7.7%-
Gowran Park2m4f29.7%1.7%11212.0%3.3%-
Limerick2m25.8%3.9%19911.9%3.1%-
Plumpton2m2f31.3%4.3%5216.0%2.6%-
Plumpton2m5f30.5%6.1%15713.7%6.1%-
Taunton2m7f21.6%8.1%6714.9%3.7%-
Clonmel2m23.7%2.6%8811.7%2.8%-
Uttoxeter2m4f24.8%4.7%35014.4%5.1%-
Exeter2m3f25.3%5.7%18613.2%5.4%-
Listowel2m4f23.0%4.3%9211.7%3.9%-
Downpatrick2m2f22.7%3.3%12613.8%5.0%-

Combinations with 50 or more races first 30 to 49 races flagged.

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Pace bias by course, NH

Killarney26.6%2.8%34613.6%3.3%
Galway23.2%3.3%37911.6%2.8%
Kempton27.0%6.5%51314.9%6.9%
Limerick20.9%4.4%68612.3%3.1%
Naas26.2%2.2%39811.7%2.4%
Bangor-on-Dee26.9%5.5%57115.3%5.1%
Sligo17.7%5.1%27012.8%5.2%
Sandown23.2%6.0%38115.0%6.4%
Cheltenham17.8%5.1%72711.0%5.9%
Tipperary22.0%3.4%30910.8%5.1%
Newbury23.6%4.9%50714.2%4.4%
Exeter25.2%5.3%69713.8%5.1%
Warwick23.4%5.1%80014.5%7.0%
Plumpton28.5%6.0%70015.6%6.5%
Listowel19.4%3.7%30712.0%3.1%
Chepstow24.5%4.6%73614.2%3.7%
Haydock24.6%4.7%35816.2%5.5%
Downpatrick19.2%4.6%46613.5%4.7%
Roscommon18.4%4.5%21011.5%4.1%
Ballinrobe18.4%4.4%39012.0%3.5%
Bellewstown19.4%4.6%13112.8%2.3%
Taunton23.4%4.3%58313.5%5.6%
Stratford24.9%6.5%74615.3%4.9%
Ascot23.9%5.7%34514.9%5.1%
Market Rasen23.2%7.0%93215.3%6.7%
Fontwell28.0%7.1%93315.3%7.0%
Leicester27.8%8.0%34915.9%6.5%
Cartmel21.7%6.5%38614.5%7.7%
Clonmel19.0%4.1%52012.2%3.3%
Sedgefield25.6%5.0%77915.7%7.2%
Punchestown18.2%3.5%1,01712.1%2.9%
Worcester20.4%8.0%80013.4%6.3%
Doncaster22.5%6.2%56514.8%5.1%
Musselburgh21.9%5.8%46115.1%7.5%
Newcastle22.2%5.2%58615.2%6.8%
Tramore17.9%4.2%49713.2%3.8%
Leopardstown19.6%3.5%40312.2%3.3%
Uttoxeter20.6%5.9%1,14114.6%4.6%
Fairyhouse18.7%3.9%81512.5%2.7%
Newton Abbot26.2%8.2%72815.2%6.4%
Kelso23.6%5.4%66015.6%6.0%
Gowran Park20.6%3.4%31812.4%2.5%
Ffos Las20.9%7.9%63814.2%7.1%
Ayr20.5%6.3%55615.1%4.6%
Wincanton21.8%4.9%68814.4%6.0%
Kilbeggan16.2%3.4%49012.9%4.3%
Hexham20.2%5.7%65615.0%6.0%
Fakenham25.1%8.2%45717.5%8.3%
Hereford22.1%5.2%60714.9%5.1%
Ludlow23.0%6.3%66715.5%5.4%

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Pace bias by course and distance, Flat

Bellewstown5f33.3%4.3%6213.9%1.0%Turf-
Navan5f27.4%5.1%1148.9%2.1%Turf-
York5f25.8%5.2%1138.4%1.8%Turf-
Dundalk (AW)5f29.5%5.0%19911.5%5.0%AW-
Leicester1m25.5%9.1%10811.0%5.9%Turf-
York6f19.2%5.6%1808.0%4.6%Turf-
Chester6f36.1%2.7%10114.4%5.6%Turf-
Newmarket1m4f29.9%9.6%8713.0%8.8%Turf-
Thirsk6f21.0%5.7%2099.2%4.4%Turf-
Navan1m31.8%3.3%599.7%4.8%Turf-
Dundalk (AW)6f22.1%4.6%31311.3%4.3%AW-
Leopardstown1m22.1%4.6%20212.6%3.2%Turf-
Yarmouth1m3½f27.2%8.2%8912.8%5.2%Turf-
Navan1m2f17.5%3.9%10410.0%4.8%Turf-
Galway1m4f15.0%4.9%708.4%4.8%Turf-
Lingfield1m2f21.3%6.2%5218.0%5.3%Turf-
Ripon6f27.1%5.6%23211.4%5.5%Turf-
Leopardstown7f23.2%4.6%22112.0%4.0%Turf-
Gowran Park1m1½f23.2%3.0%19210.9%5.2%Turf-
Redcar5f24.0%3.4%9712.1%6.6%Turf-
Lingfield5f34.9%3.1%7217.4%2.3%Turf-
Chelmsford (AW)5f29.4%7.4%26915.3%5.8%AW-
Thirsk5f25.2%3.2%13012.0%6.7%Turf-
Southwell (AW)5f25.3%5.6%42911.6%7.0%AW-
Ascot6f16.5%7.9%1397.9%4.0%Turf-
Pontefract1m27.2%7.5%16912.2%5.3%Turf-
Bath1m2f21.6%7.4%12912.1%8.5%Turf-
Chester1m2½f26.3%5.0%10413.4%12.8%Turf-
Cork1m22.2%1.2%7313.1%4.1%Turf-
Catterick6f26.8%5.0%17113.9%6.3%Turf-
Lingfield7½f23.9%5.6%5312.8%6.8%Turf-
Curragh6f19.2%4.5%2809.1%3.2%Turf-
Salisbury1m6f28.8%7.6%5913.0%9.5%Turf-
Brighton6f27.8%6.0%14615.0%13.1%Turf-
Pontefract5f28.6%4.5%11714.3%5.0%Turf-
Ayr5f22.6%8.7%9512.8%7.0%Turf-
Gowran Park7f23.8%1.8%17012.3%4.5%Turf-
Yarmouth1m2f24.1%6.9%15112.4%10.1%Turf-
Lingfield (AW)5f26.4%7.5%29315.2%6.9%AW-
Beverley7½f28.4%4.0%23313.6%8.2%Turf-

Combinations with 50 or more races first 30 to 49 races flagged. Full per-course detail lives on each course page. Source: RaceWatch results database and race comments.

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Pace bias by course, Flat

Navan20.9%4.4%4909.7%4.2%Turf
Roscommon22.2%3.9%26612.3%4.4%Turf
Sligo22.1%5.0%14612.8%3.7%Turf
Gowran Park22.0%2.7%62611.5%4.6%Turf
Ripon26.9%6.1%74813.6%7.5%Turf
Lingfield24.8%7.1%52815.0%5.4%Turf
Galway18.5%4.3%31510.7%3.7%Turf
York15.6%6.3%8369.5%5.0%Turf
Pontefract24.1%7.3%73913.6%5.7%Turf
Leopardstown18.4%5.4%79312.1%4.0%Turf
Leicester21.5%7.8%83113.3%5.5%Turf
Epsom22.7%7.7%43313.7%6.9%Turf
Curragh16.5%4.9%1,20710.0%3.8%Turf
Listowel20.6%3.9%18713.4%3.4%Turf
Chepstow22.9%6.5%65613.9%5.6%Turf
Thirsk19.2%5.8%75611.6%6.1%Turf
Chester22.3%6.3%65114.0%8.7%Turf
Catterick21.1%5.9%78514.2%6.1%Turf
Beverley21.4%6.0%88713.4%7.3%Turf
Newmarket17.2%8.1%99411.7%6.1%Turf
Redcar19.4%5.0%82212.7%6.1%Turf
Windsor19.7%6.4%1,17313.4%6.7%Turf
Yarmouth20.8%9.2%1,09412.8%6.6%Turf
Bellewstown16.7%5.1%26512.7%4.4%Turf
Fairyhouse14.7%5.3%28112.4%3.5%Turf
Newbury16.7%7.4%88811.6%7.0%Turf
Bath20.1%7.6%94412.8%7.7%Turf
Musselburgh21.7%6.5%73515.3%7.7%Turf
Nottingham20.1%7.9%94313.3%5.6%Turf
Dundalk (AW)14.1%4.8%2,27711.4%5.5%AW
Newmarket (July)21.1%8.6%86313.8%7.3%Turf
Wetherby17.2%7.2%13311.8%9.9%Turf
Naas16.5%4.7%63910.9%3.9%Turf
Chelmsford (AW)18.9%7.1%2,50814.3%7.4%AW
Salisbury20.9%7.2%67315.2%6.6%Turf
Killarney18.7%5.3%30813.0%5.8%Turf
Ballinrobe18.8%4.6%10013.8%4.9%Turf
Brighton20.9%10.2%86014.7%9.0%Turf
Hamilton20.9%8.3%81714.5%7.8%Turf
Kempton (AW)17.4%6.1%3,10913.2%7.3%AW
Carlisle17.5%7.5%52913.9%5.4%Turf
Southwell (AW)15.6%6.8%2,55813.1%7.6%AW
Ayr17.0%6.7%85913.0%8.5%Turf
Haydock17.1%9.8%1,07812.9%8.2%Turf
Doncaster14.8%8.9%1,14711.5%6.8%Turf
Ascot13.1%7.5%8259.7%5.4%Turf
Ffos Las21.7%10.2%34814.6%8.8%Turf
Cork14.4%3.5%47011.8%4.2%Turf
Newcastle (AW)14.5%8.8%3,16811.9%7.1%AW
Limerick13.5%5.9%22910.3%7.2%Turf

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Win rate by run style, 2019 to 2025
FlatNH
0%10%20%30%40%Held upLedMidfieldProminentFlat Held up: 6.8%6.8%Flat Led: 17.7%17.7%Flat Midfield: 6.4%6.4%Flat Prominent: 12.8%12.8%NH Held up: 5.2%5.2%NH Led: 21.8%21.8%NH Midfield: 4.7%4.7%NH Prominent: 13.9%13.9%

Win % by Run style

Win rate by run style

FlatLed17.7%46,0498,168
FlatProminent12.8%215,19527,644
FlatMidfield6.4%79,8235,125
FlatHeld up6.8%158,00210,693
NHLed21.8%30,0716,541
NHProminent13.9%149,02420,782
NHMidfield4.7%54,3072,527
NHHeld up5.2%91,0874,779

Every British and Irish run from 2019 to 2025 with a run style in the race comment. Run style describes how the race was run, so leaders beat their price by a wide margin in every sample; compare courses with each other rather than with 1.00.

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Run style by going

FlatGood or firmer19.9%7.0%12.7%6.0%192,311
FlatGood to soft17.0%6.4%12.2%5.6%49,767
FlatSoft or heavy18.2%6.3%12.5%5.6%61,435
FlatStandard (AW)15.6%6.8%13.3%7.3%195,545
NHGood or firmer22.8%5.8%14.1%4.9%132,140
NHGood to soft20.6%4.8%13.6%4.6%82,475
NHSoft or heavy21.4%4.9%14.1%4.3%108,461
NHStandard (AW)6.3%9.5%11.6%8.5%1,413

Official going bands, 2019 to 2025.

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Run styles

LedLed or disputed the lead early, taken from the race comment (for example "mad…
ProminentRaced close to the pace: tracked the leaders or chased them.
MidfieldRaced in mid-division.
Held upRaced towards the rear or was held up for a late run.

Run styles are read from the published race comment for each runner.

Today's races with a pace record

40 runners today match this. See them in the app.

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Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Pace and position on today's card

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Which courses favour front runners and which favour hold-up horses?

The course and distance tables show win rate for led, prominent, midfield and held-up runners

Which tracks suit front runners?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Which tracks suit hold-up horses?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

How does the going change pace bias?

The going table splits each run style by ground for jumps and Flat, showing where soft ground helps or hurts front runners.

How should pace bias be used with a pace map?

A pace map shows who is likely to lead today, and pace bias shows whether the course and distance favour that style.

Questions people ask

Which British and Irish courses favour horses that lead?

Bellewstown over 5f is the strongest Flat front-runner course and distance on the latest figures.

Do hold-up horses do better on galloping tracks?

Hold-up horses win less often than front runners almost everywhere, but the gap narrows on long straights.

How is a horse's run style worked out from its past races?

Each run is classed as led, prominent, midfield or held up from the words in its race comment, such as made all or held up in rear. The definitions table sets out each style.

Does pace bias change on soft ground?

Yes, the going table shows the win rate for each run style on good or firmer ground against softer going. Read it with the course figures, since some tracks change more than others.

More free data

Draw biasStall position by course and distanceCourse and distance winnersHorses with a record at the trackCourse favourite recordsHow favourites do at each courseRacing by monthThe racing year month by monthRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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