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Thurles draw bias: Flat races at a jumps venue

At Thurles over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 44% of races of 8 or more runners since 2018 (25 races), middle draws 32% and high draws 28%, against 29.8%, 34% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Thurles declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 8 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Not enough data
Rating on the most-run trip
1m
Trip where the draw stands out most
46
Races of 8+ runners since 2018
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 44.0% v 29.8%

At Thurles over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 44.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2018 (25 races), middle draws 32.0% and high draws 28.0%, against 29.8%, 34.0% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data.Sample: 25 races · Window: 25 October 2018 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Thurles draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes4656841.3%30.2%26.1%33.7%34.8%36.2%27.3%23.6%22.4%24.3%Low +11.1 pts0.261Weak or none
1mAll goingAll field sizes2530744.0%29.8%32.0%34.0%28.0%36.2%27.2%25.0%21.6%24.4%Low +14.2 pts0.333Not enough data

Flat races at Thurles with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 25 October 2018. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Thurles draw bias: since 2018 v the last three seasons

All distances4641.3%26.1%34.8%30.2%33.7%36.2%Weak or none1844.4%27.8%27.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2544.0%32.0%28.0%29.8%34.0%36.2%Not enough data666.7%33.3%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Thurles draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances4037.5%30.0%25.0%33.8%40.0%36.2%25.9%24.2%23.7%
1m2040.0%29.4%30.0%34.3%35.0%36.3%25.0%26.5%22.7%

Flat races at Thurles with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Thurles draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low4037.5%30.0%10.2%1471525.9%
Middle4025.0%33.8%6.1%1651024.2%
High4040.0%36.2%9.0%1771623.7%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Thurles draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances4934.7%29.4%22.4%33.7%44.9%36.9%
1m2433.3%29.1%25.0%34.0%45.8%36.8%

Every Flat race at Thurles with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Thurles draw by field size

12 to 15 runnersAll distances2835.7%30.5%28.6%33.4%39.3%36.1%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Thurles 1m: win % by draw third, since 2018 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2018Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2018 Low: 44%Since 2018 Middle: 32%Since 2018 High: 28%Since 2024 Low: 66.7%Since 2024 Middle: 33.3%Since 2024 High: 0%Expected by chance Low: 29.8%Expected by chance Middle: 34%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Thurles win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%10%20%30%40%1mLow third 1m: 40%Middle third 1m: 30%High third 1m: 35%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Thurles and their draw

8 Oct 26Silver Kiss (IRE) silksSilver Kiss (IRE)7High101m½f2.00
8 Oct 26Blissful Bonita (IRE) silksBlissful Bonita (IRE)1Low132m½f3.50
8 Oct 26Sunny South West (IRE) silksSunny South West (IRE)1Low92m½f3.75
8 Oct 26The Austrian (IRE) silksThe Austrian (IRE)5High51m4½f2.62
8 Oct 26Max Meridius (IRE) silksMax Meridius (IRE)3Low141m4½f4.33
8 Oct 26Tariff (IRE) silksTariff (IRE)15High141m½f9.00
8 Oct 26Starflow (IRE) silksStarflow (IRE)8Middle131m½f6.00
8 Oct 26King Christoph (IRE) silksKing Christoph (IRE)5Middle141m½f2.38
9 Oct 25Grann's Boy (IRE) silksGrann's Boy (IRE)10Middle122m½f2.75
9 Oct 25Sorrentino (IRE) silksSorrentino (IRE)2Low112m½f2.75
9 Oct 25Truth Be Told (IRE) silksTruth Be Told (IRE)1Low61m4½f8.50
9 Oct 25Tickling (IRE) silksTickling (IRE)9High91m4½f3.75
9 Oct 25Queen Aethelflaed (IRE) silksQueen Aethelflaed (IRE)1Low141m12.00
9 Oct 25Killashee Warrior (GB) silksKillashee Warrior (GB)7Middle111m2.75
9 Oct 25Green Carrera (GB) silksGreen Carrera (GB)3Low91m4.50
10 Oct 24Empress Alma (IRE) silksEmpress Alma (IRE)10High112m½f6.00
10 Oct 24Soul Of Spain (IRE) silksSoul Of Spain (IRE)3Middle72m½f3.00
10 Oct 24Autumn Winter (IRE) silksAutumn Winter (IRE)6High51m4½f1.67
10 Oct 24Londonofficecallin (IRE) silksLondonofficecallin (IRE)13High131m4½f1.83
10 Oct 24Skontonovski (GB) silksSkontonovski (GB)12Middle141m9.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Thurles in the data with a full draw.

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Is there a draw bias at Thurles?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Thurles, the draw rates not enough data from 25 races. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 44% against 29.8% by chance (rated not enough data).

Is it worth reading Thurles draw figures when the sample is this small?

Thurles stages very few Flat races, so almost every split is hidden. Treat the pooled figure as a rough pointer, not a pattern.

How do going and field size change the draw at Thurles?

The bias matrix gives every Thurles trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Thurles draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2018 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads too few recent races, from 6 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Thurles?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Thurles, the draw rates not enough data, with low draws winning 44% of 25 races against 29.8% by chance. It stands out most over 1m, where the low third has won 44% against 29.8% (rated not enough data).

Is a low or high draw better at Thurles?

Across all distances since 2018, low draws have won 41.3% of Thurles races against 30.2% by chance, and high draws 34.8% against 36.2%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

How many Flat races does Thurles stage?

Thurles has 40 Flat races of 8 or more runners since 2019, a very small sample. Most of its racing is over jumps, so the Flat record grows slowly.

How often are the Thurles draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2018, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseThurles course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseThurles racecardsThe next meeting's full cardClonmel draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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