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Wetherby draw bias: a jumps track's small Flat sample

At Wetherby over 5½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (47 races), middle draws 38.3% and high draws 31.9%, against 30.4%, 33% and 36.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Wetherby declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 15 June 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5½f
Trip where the draw stands out most
168
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 38.3% v 33.0%

At Wetherby over 5½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (47 races), middle draws 38.3% and high draws 31.9%, against 30.4%, 33.0% and 36.6% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 47 races · Window: 17 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Wetherby draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1681,79631.5%29.6%35.7%33.7%33.3%36.6%27.7%28.9%27.6%28.1%Middle +2.0 pts0.638Weak or none
5½fAll goingAll field sizes4743029.8%30.4%38.3%33.0%31.9%36.6%31.3%39.0%28.5%32.8%Middle +5.3 pts0.709Weak or none
5½fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2522736.0%30.3%48.0%33.3%16.0%36.5%31.9%44.0%24.1%33.0%Middle +14.7 pts0.092Not enough data
5½fAll going8 to 11 runners4743029.8%30.4%38.3%33.0%31.9%36.6%31.3%39.0%28.5%32.8%Middle +5.3 pts0.709Weak or none
5½fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2522736.0%30.3%48.0%33.3%16.0%36.5%31.9%44.0%24.1%33.0%Middle +14.7 pts0.092Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes4044232.5%28.4%35.0%35.1%32.5%36.4%28.9%24.7%28.1%27.1%Low +4.1 pts0.819Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2022025.0%28.4%40.0%35.4%35.0%36.3%25.0%29.9%26.6%27.3%Middle +4.6 pts0.900Not enough data
7fAll going8 to 11 runners2725937.0%26.9%29.6%36.0%33.3%37.1%38.6%28.0%29.2%31.3%Low +10.1 pts0.485Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes4351332.6%30.4%37.2%33.0%32.6%36.6%22.3%27.8%25.1%25.1%Middle +4.2 pts0.783Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2226650.0%30.6%31.8%32.8%22.7%36.5%32.9%24.1%18.6%24.8%Low +19.4 pts0.146Not enough data
1mAll going8 to 11 runners2120538.1%29.3%38.1%33.2%28.6%37.5%28.3%38.2%26.0%30.7%Low +8.8 pts0.561Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes2626938.5%28.7%23.1%34.0%38.5%37.3%34.6%23.1%30.0%29.0%Low +9.8 pts0.411Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners2221240.9%28.2%18.2%34.1%40.9%37.7%40.0%20.8%33.8%31.1%Low +12.7 pts0.228Not enough data

Flat races at Wetherby with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 17 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Wetherby draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances16831.5%35.7%33.3%29.6%33.7%36.6%Weak or none4835.4%33.3%33.3%Weak or noneGone lately
5½f4729.8%38.3%31.9%30.4%33.0%36.6%Weak or none1540.0%33.3%26.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f4032.5%35.0%32.5%28.4%35.1%36.4%Weak or none1315.4%53.8%30.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4332.6%37.2%32.6%30.4%33.0%36.6%Weak or none1346.2%23.1%38.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f2638.5%23.1%38.5%28.7%34.0%37.3%Not enough data742.9%14.3%42.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Wetherby draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances11335.4%29.6%32.7%33.8%32.7%36.6%29.9%28.4%27.4%
5½f3336.4%30.7%36.4%32.6%27.3%36.8%33.0%36.4%28.3%
7f3036.7%28.3%30.0%35.1%33.3%36.6%30.4%25.0%29.1%
1m2934.5%30.1%34.5%33.4%34.5%36.4%27.5%25.0%25.4%

Flat races at Wetherby with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Wetherby draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low11335.4%29.6%11.3%3554029.9%
Middle11332.7%33.8%9.2%4013728.4%
High11332.7%36.6%8.5%4353727.4%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Wetherby draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances15534.8%29.5%29.0%33.0%36.8%37.6%
5½f4440.9%30.6%31.8%32.5%27.3%36.9%
7f3831.6%28.4%28.9%33.8%39.5%37.8%
1m3336.4%30.0%30.3%32.9%36.4%37.1%
1m2f2437.5%28.4%25.0%32.5%37.5%39.2%

Every Flat race at Wetherby with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Wetherby draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances4233.3%29.2%19.0%30.6%47.6%40.2%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances8536.5%28.9%29.4%34.1%35.3%37.0%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances2532.0%31.6%44.0%33.3%24.0%35.1%
8 to 11 runners5½f3336.4%30.7%36.4%32.6%27.3%36.8%
8 to 11 runners7f2334.8%27.2%26.1%35.7%39.1%37.1%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Wetherby draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances6238.7%29.4%27.4%36.6%35.5%
GoodAll distances3831.6%29.7%39.5%36.5%28.9%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Wetherby 5½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 29.8%Since 2016 Middle: 38.3%Since 2016 High: 31.9%Since 2024 Low: 40%Since 2024 Middle: 33.3%Since 2024 High: 26.7%Expected by chance Low: 30.4%Expected by chance Middle: 33%Expected by chance High: 36.6%

Win % of races by Draw third

Wetherby win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%10%20%30%40%5½f7f1mLow third 5½f: 36.4%Low third 7f: 36.7%Low third 1m: 34.5%Middle third 5½f: 36.4%Middle third 7f: 30%Middle third 1m: 34.5%High third 5½f: 27.3%High third 7f: 33.3%High third 1m: 34.5%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Wetherby and their draw

15 Jun 26Crafty Spirit (IRE) silksCrafty Spirit (IRE)1Low95½f5.00
15 Jun 26Bradbury (IRE) silksBradbury (IRE)9High101m2f2.00
15 Jun 26Thornaby Annie (IRE) silksThornaby Annie (IRE)3Low131m6.00
15 Jun 26Bayraat (GB) silksBayraat (GB)1Low95½f3.25
15 Jun 26Roaring Ralph (GB) silksRoaring Ralph (GB)2Low71m8.50
15 Jun 26Machadadorp (GB) silksMachadadorp (GB)8High117f1.91
15 Jun 26Starlight Mirage (IRE) silksStarlight Mirage (IRE)7High77f1.62
4 Jun 26Beautiful Rainbow (IRE) silksBeautiful Rainbow (IRE)5Middle95½f6.50
4 Jun 26Sea Her Excel (GB) silksSea Her Excel (GB)5Middle85½f11.00
4 Jun 26Ciao Capo (IRE) silksCiao Capo (IRE)7High71m2f2.10
4 Jun 26Crocus Time (IRE) silksCrocus Time (IRE)4Low95½f6.50
4 Jun 26Wateera (IRE) silksWateera (IRE)1Low65½f4.50
4 Jun 26Nanoscience (GB) silksNanoscience (GB)1Low107f3.75
4 Jun 26Reigning Queen (GB) silksReigning Queen (GB)2Low65½f2.50
4 Jun 26Obelix (GB) silksObelix (GB)6Middle147f11.00
26 Apr 26Hood Wink (GB) silksHood Wink (GB)3Middle81m13.00
26 Apr 26Alice's Influence (GB) silksAlice's Influence (GB)2Low81m17.00
26 Apr 26Glory Hyde (IRE) silksGlory Hyde (IRE)2Low65½f5.50
26 Apr 26Hale End (IRE) silksHale End (IRE)10High121m12.00
26 Apr 26Princling (GB) silksPrincling (GB)2Low81m1.25

The 20 most recent Flat races at Wetherby in the data with a full draw.

Wetherby win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
10%20%30%40%50%20192023Low third 2019: 42.9%Low third 2023: 25%25%Middle third 2019: 23.8%Middle third 2023: 40%40%High third 2019: 33.3%High third 2023: 35%35%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Wetherby?

Over 5½f, the most-run trip at Wetherby, the draw rates weak or none from 47 races. It stands out most over 5½f, where the middle third has won 38.3% against 33% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is there a draw bias at Wetherby on the Flat?

Wetherby's Flat sample is small, with only a few distances reaching the 20-race minimum. Treat each third's figure as a rough guide until more races are run.

How do going and field size change the draw at Wetherby?

The bias matrix gives every Wetherby trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Wetherby draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 5½f the check reads too few recent races, from 15 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Wetherby?

Over 5½f, the most-run trip at Wetherby, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 29.8% of 47 races against 30.4% by chance. It stands out most over 5½f, where the middle third has won 38.3% against 33% (rated weak or none).

Is a low or high draw better at Wetherby?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 31.5% of Wetherby races against 29.6% by chance, and high draws 33.3% against 36.6%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Should I use Wetherby's figures or those from bigger Yorkshire tracks?

Wetherby's own figures rest on few races, so left-handed Yorkshire Flat tracks with larger samples, such as York, are worth comparing on their own draw pages. Neither replaces the Wetherby record as it grows.

How often are the Wetherby draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseWetherby course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseWetherby racecardsThe next meeting's full cardYork draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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