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Down Royal draw bias: summer Flat and the Ulster Derby

At Down Royal over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.1% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (79 races), middle draws 31.6% and high draws 39.2%, against 29.3%, 34.4% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Down Royal declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 28 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
278
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 39.2% v 36.4%

At Down Royal over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 29.1% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (79 races), middle draws 31.6% and high draws 39.2%, against 29.3%, 34.4% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 79 races · Window: 18 June 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Down Royal draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes2783,13225.5%29.7%35.6%34.0%39.6%36.3%23.6%29.4%26.8%26.6%High +3.3 pts0.269Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes6668121.2%29.7%36.4%34.4%43.9%35.9%23.9%31.8%31.3%29.1%High +8.0 pts0.239Weak or none
5fGoodAll field sizes5153123.5%29.8%39.2%34.2%39.2%36.0%24.4%32.6%29.5%28.8%Middle +5.0 pts0.554Weak or none
5fAll going8 to 11 runners4340516.3%27.8%39.5%35.0%44.2%37.3%25.7%38.3%30.5%31.9%High +6.9 pts0.240Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners2327630.4%33.3%30.4%33.3%43.5%33.3%21.7%21.7%32.6%25.0%High +10.2 pts0.662Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners3331515.2%27.8%42.4%34.7%42.4%37.5%25.0%39.4%28.8%31.4%Middle +7.7 pts0.262Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes7996929.1%29.3%31.6%34.4%39.2%36.4%22.9%26.4%24.1%24.5%High +2.8 pts0.839Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes4960032.7%29.0%34.7%35.0%32.7%36.1%24.1%24.8%25.0%24.5%Low +3.7 pts0.822Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2733414.8%29.6%29.6%33.5%55.6%36.8%18.2%29.5%24.4%24.3%High +18.8 pts0.096Not enough data
7fAll going8 to 11 runners2625323.1%28.4%34.6%34.8%42.3%36.7%22.2%35.2%33.3%30.8%High +5.6 pts0.786Not enough data
7fAll going12 to 15 runners5371632.1%29.7%30.2%34.1%37.7%36.2%23.1%23.3%20.8%22.2%Low +2.4 pts0.827Weak or none
7fGood12 to 15 runners3243737.5%29.4%28.1%35.0%34.4%35.7%23.4%21.6%21.8%22.0%Low +8.1 pts0.559Not enough data
1m2½fAll goingAll field sizes5761824.6%29.9%33.3%33.5%42.1%36.6%24.2%31.6%27.0%27.7%High +5.5 pts0.603Weak or none
1m2½fGoodAll field sizes3638022.2%29.8%36.1%33.6%41.7%36.6%21.1%33.9%29.5%28.4%High +5.1 pts0.605Not enough data
1m2½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2022625.0%29.9%30.0%33.3%45.0%36.7%27.9%28.0%24.1%26.5%High +8.3 pts0.741Not enough data
1m2½fAll going8 to 11 runners3229818.8%28.7%34.4%34.1%46.9%37.2%24.4%36.6%34.2%32.2%High +9.7 pts0.383Not enough data
1m2½fAll going12 to 15 runners2532032.0%31.4%32.0%32.8%36.0%35.9%24.0%26.7%20.0%23.4%Low +0.6 pts0.996Not enough data
1m2½fGood8 to 11 runners2321517.4%28.7%39.1%34.1%43.5%37.2%19.4%39.7%35.0%32.1%High +6.3 pts0.485Not enough data
1m4½fAll goingAll field sizes2224336.4%29.6%18.2%33.0%45.5%37.4%25.0%25.0%30.8%27.2%High +8.1 pts0.334Not enough data
1m5fAll goingAll field sizes3438820.6%30.7%52.9%33.3%29.4%36.0%21.0%31.8%25.7%26.3%Middle +19.6 pts0.064Not enough data
1m5fGoodAll field sizes2224813.6%30.6%50.0%33.1%36.4%36.3%21.1%29.3%28.9%26.6%Middle +16.9 pts0.137Not enough data
1m5fAll going12 to 15 runners2026125.0%30.8%45.0%33.3%35.0%36.0%15.0%27.6%25.5%23.0%Middle +11.7 pts0.592Not enough data

Flat races at Down Royal with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 18 June 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Down Royal draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances27825.5%35.6%39.6%29.7%34.0%36.3%Weak or none10716.8%42.1%42.1%ModerateStronger lately
5f6621.2%36.4%43.9%29.7%34.4%35.9%Weak or none238.7%43.5%52.2%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f7929.1%31.6%39.2%29.3%34.4%36.4%Weak or none3525.7%37.1%37.1%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2½f5724.6%33.3%42.1%29.9%33.5%36.6%Weak or none205.0%40.0%55.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4½f2236.4%18.2%45.5%29.6%33.0%37.4%Not enough data0---Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m5f3420.6%52.9%29.4%30.7%33.3%36.0%Not enough data1915.8%47.4%36.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Down Royal stall by stall at each distance

5f16023.3%10.0%21.7%30.0%-8.3
5f25858.6%10.1%32.8%30.3%+2.4
5f36434.7%10.0%26.6%29.9%-3.3
5f4621016.1%10.0%38.7%29.9%+8.8
5f560711.7%9.9%20.0%29.8%-9.8
5f661711.5%10.0%32.8%30.0%+2.8
5f760711.7%9.9%26.7%29.7%-3.1
5f86334.8%9.9%30.2%29.8%+0.3
5f952917.3%9.6%32.7%28.7%+4.0
7f171811.3%8.5%23.9%25.5%-1.6
7f27245.6%8.4%20.8%25.2%-4.4
7f37268.3%8.4%23.6%25.3%-1.7
7f47479.5%8.4%31.1%25.2%+5.8
7f56968.7%8.4%29.0%25.3%+3.7
7f67368.2%8.5%23.3%25.5%-2.2
7f76657.6%8.4%40.9%25.3%+15.6
7f86623.0%8.4%16.7%25.1%-8.4
7f96134.9%8.2%23.0%24.6%-1.6
7f10651116.9%8.1%21.5%24.2%-2.7
7f116423.1%7.9%12.5%23.6%-11.1
7f125459.3%7.7%25.9%23.1%+2.9
7f135259.6%7.6%28.8%22.8%+6.1

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Down Royal draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances22722.5%29.6%36.6%34.0%41.4%36.4%23.0%28.6%27.8%
5f5320.8%29.5%35.8%34.5%45.3%36.0%21.8%31.7%32.5%
7f6124.6%29.1%32.8%34.5%42.6%36.4%23.3%25.5%25.7%
1m2½f4816.7%29.8%33.3%33.4%50.0%36.7%22.6%30.1%28.4%
1m5f3221.9%30.7%53.1%33.2%25.0%36.1%21.6%31.7%26.0%

Flat races at Down Royal with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Down Royal draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low22722.5%29.6%6.7%7625123.0%
Middle22736.6%34.0%9.5%8708328.6%
High22741.4%36.4%10.1%9329427.8%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Down Royal draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances27423.7%29.5%36.5%33.6%40.1%36.9%
5f7223.6%29.4%37.5%33.6%40.3%36.9%
7f6625.8%29.1%34.8%34.2%39.4%36.7%
1m2½f5117.6%29.8%33.3%33.1%49.0%37.1%
1m4½f2030.0%29.3%20.0%32.5%50.0%38.2%
1m5f4323.3%30.3%48.8%33.1%27.9%36.6%

Every Flat race at Down Royal with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Down Royal draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances4729.8%29.3%36.2%31.4%34.0%39.3%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances11216.1%28.4%39.3%34.4%44.6%37.2%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances11528.7%30.7%33.9%33.6%38.3%35.7%
8 to 11 runners5f3411.8%27.4%41.2%35.1%47.1%37.5%
8 to 11 runners7f2321.7%28.6%34.8%34.6%43.5%36.8%
12 to 15 runners7f3826.3%29.4%31.6%34.5%42.1%36.1%
8 to 11 runners1m2½f258.0%28.5%32.0%34.0%60.0%37.6%
12 to 15 runners1m2½f2326.1%31.3%34.8%32.8%39.1%35.9%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Down Royal draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances15022.0%29.6%39.3%36.3%39.3%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances4025.0%29.5%45.0%36.5%30.0%
SoftAll distances2623.1%29.9%42.3%36.8%34.6%
Good5f4320.9%29.6%39.5%36.0%41.9%
Good7f3928.2%28.8%35.9%36.2%35.9%
Good1m2½f2810.7%29.8%53.6%36.7%35.7%
Good1m5f2213.6%30.6%36.4%36.3%50.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Down Royal 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 29.1%Since 2016 Middle: 31.6%Since 2016 High: 39.2%Since 2024 Low: 25.7%Since 2024 Middle: 37.1%Since 2024 High: 37.1%Expected by chance Low: 29.3%Expected by chance Middle: 34.4%Expected by chance High: 36.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Down Royal win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f7f1m2½f1m5fLow third 5f: 20.8%Low third 7f: 24.6%Low third 1m2½f: 16.7%Low third 1m5f: 21.9%Middle third 5f: 35.8%Middle third 7f: 32.8%Middle third 1m2½f: 33.3%Middle third 1m5f: 53.1%High third 5f: 45.3%High third 7f: 42.6%High third 1m2½f: 50%High third 1m5f: 25%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Down Royal and their draw

28 Sep 26No More Hiding (GB) silksNo More Hiding (GB)13High141m3f3.75
28 Sep 26Pillar Of Hope (GB) silksPillar Of Hope (GB)9Middle141m5f23.00
28 Sep 26Connecteo (IRE) silksConnecteo (IRE)13High141m3f5.00
28 Sep 26Minaun View (GB) silksMinaun View (GB)12High147f9.00
28 Sep 26Daring Heart (IRE) silksDaring Heart (IRE)2Low97f1.50
28 Sep 26Leap Of Light (IRE) silksLeap Of Light (IRE)6Middle87f7.00
28 Sep 26Nellcote (IRE) silksNellcote (IRE)5Middle101m5f4.50
28 Sep 26Premier View (IRE) silksPremier View (IRE)2Low65f4.33
4 Sep 26Lough Leane (IRE) silksLough Leane (IRE)14High141m2½f8.00
4 Sep 26Dancing Steve (IRE) silksDancing Steve (IRE)11High121m5f9.50
4 Sep 26Flagstone Lady (IRE) silksFlagstone Lady (IRE)17High131m5f3.50
4 Sep 26Boxing Great (IRE) silksBoxing Great (IRE)8Middle132m2½f4.33
4 Sep 26Romance (GER) silksRomance (GER)4Middle107f8.00
4 Sep 26Sovreigns Joy (GB) silksSovreigns Joy (GB)5Low147f2.88
4 Sep 26Forza Magico (GB) silksForza Magico (GB)12High125f2.00
4 Sep 26Premier View (IRE) silksPremier View (IRE)12High115f13.00
17 Jul 26Sea Of Dubka (IRE) silksSea Of Dubka (IRE)1Low71m5f4.00
17 Jul 26Teologia (FR) silksTeologia (FR)1Low51m5f1.57
17 Jul 26Numidia (IRE) silksNumidia (IRE)3Middle71m5f5.50
17 Jul 26Youcansaythatagain (IRE) silksYoucansaythatagain (IRE)1Low71m2½f2.25

The 20 most recent Flat races at Down Royal in the data with a full draw.

Down Royal win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%2019202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 48%Low third 2021: 25%Low third 2022: 21.4%Low third 2023: 20%Low third 2024: 17.1%Low third 2025: 16.2%Low third 2026: 17.1%17.1%Middle third 2019: 24%Middle third 2021: 29.2%Middle third 2022: 25%Middle third 2023: 40%Middle third 2024: 45.7%Middle third 2025: 40.5%Middle third 2026: 40%40%High third 2019: 28%High third 2021: 45.8%High third 2022: 53.6%High third 2023: 40%High third 2024: 40%High third 2025: 43.2%High third 2026: 42.9%42.9%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Down Royal?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Down Royal, the draw rates weak or none from 79 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.9% against 35.9% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is Down Royal's right-handed track fair to high-drawn horses?

Across all distances pooled, the high third at Down Royal has run above its expected share and the low third below it. The sample is modest, so the race count on each row matters.

How do going and field size change the draw at Down Royal?

The bias matrix gives every Down Royal trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Down Royal draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads too few recent races, from 35 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Down Royal?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Down Royal, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 29.1% of 79 races against 29.3% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.9% against 35.9% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Down Royal over 5f?

Stall 4 has the best top-three record over 5f at Down Royal since 2016, placing in 38.7% of 62 runs against 29.1% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Down Royal?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 25.5% of Down Royal races against 29.7% by chance, and high draws 39.6% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter in the Ulster Derby?

The Ulster Derby is Down Royal's big summer Flat handicap, and the row for its trip in the distance table is the closest guide once it reaches 20 races. The page covers every Down Royal race at the trip rather than tracking a single race.

How often are the Down Royal draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseDown Royal course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseDown Royal racecardsThe next meeting's full cardDownpatrickCourse guideWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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