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Newcastle draw bias: the straight Tapeta mile

At Newcastle over 6f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (754 races), middle draws 31.4% and high draws 42.3%, against 29.9%, 33.9% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: strong. Every trip and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

Next Flat meeting at Newcastle: Friday 16 October 2026, 9 races and 84 declared runners placed in their draw third · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Strong
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
3,371
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 42.3% v 36.2%

At Newcastle over 6f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (754 races), middle draws 31.4% and high draws 42.3%, against 29.9%, 33.9% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: strong. The clearest effect is over 5f, where the high third has won 43.3% of 480 races against 36.2% by chance (strong).Sample: 754 races · Window: 17 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Newcastle draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll field sizes3,37136,38326.5%29.8%33.9%33.9%40.0%36.2%25.6%27.8%29.7%27.8%High +3.8 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll field sizes4805,15027.9%29.8%28.8%34.0%43.3%36.2%26.9%26.0%30.6%28.0%High +7.1 pts0.004Strong
5f8 to 11 runners3052,88723.6%29.1%31.1%34.2%45.2%36.7%27.3%30.7%36.1%31.7%High +8.5 pts0.007Strong
5f12 to 15 runners1752,26335.4%31.1%24.6%33.5%40.0%35.4%26.4%20.0%23.4%23.2%High +4.6 pts0.043Moderate
6fAll field sizes7548,20427.3%29.9%31.4%33.9%42.3%36.2%25.3%27.3%29.9%27.6%High +6.1 pts0.004Strong
6f8 to 11 runners4494,25625.2%29.2%32.5%34.3%43.4%36.6%28.6%31.6%34.3%31.6%High +6.8 pts0.014Moderate
6f12 to 15 runners3053,94830.5%31.0%29.8%33.3%40.7%35.6%21.9%22.4%25.1%23.2%High +5.1 pts0.189Weak or none
7fAll field sizes7548,11125.3%29.7%35.7%33.9%39.3%36.4%26.1%28.1%29.3%27.9%High +2.9 pts0.026Moderate
7f8 to 11 runners4734,48223.0%28.9%37.6%34.3%39.5%36.8%29.2%32.7%32.7%31.7%Middle +3.3 pts0.017Moderate
7f12 to 15 runners2813,62929.2%31.1%32.4%33.2%38.8%35.7%22.4%22.3%24.9%23.2%High +3.1 pts0.565Weak or none
1mAll field sizes6727,21626.6%29.7%37.5%34.0%36.0%36.4%26.2%28.2%29.3%27.9%Middle +3.5 pts0.100Weak or none
1m8 to 11 runners4123,85825.5%28.8%39.1%34.4%35.4%36.8%30.9%32.4%32.8%32.0%Middle +4.7 pts0.108Weak or none
1m12 to 15 runners2603,35828.5%31.1%35.0%33.3%36.9%35.6%21.2%23.3%25.1%23.2%Middle +1.7 pts0.627Weak or none
1m2fAll field sizes3403,65427.6%30.1%33.8%33.9%38.5%36.0%24.5%29.6%29.3%27.9%High +2.5 pts0.537Weak or none
1m2f8 to 11 runners2061,93827.7%29.2%35.0%34.3%37.4%36.5%28.9%34.9%31.5%31.9%High +0.9 pts0.888Weak or none
1m2f12 to 15 runners1341,71627.6%31.4%32.1%33.3%40.3%35.3%19.8%23.6%26.7%23.4%High +5.0 pts0.445Weak or none
1m4½fAll field sizes2412,53525.7%29.7%34.9%34.1%39.8%36.2%25.3%29.0%30.8%28.5%High +3.6 pts0.326Weak or none
1m4½f8 to 11 runners1611,50923.6%29.0%34.8%34.6%42.2%36.5%28.5%31.2%35.6%32.0%High +5.7 pts0.216Weak or none
1m4½f12 to 15 runners801,02630.0%31.3%35.0%33.1%35.0%35.6%20.9%25.6%23.5%23.4%Middle +1.9 pts0.933Weak or none
2m½fAll field sizes1301,51321.5%29.9%36.2%34.2%43.1%35.9%21.7%27.0%28.0%25.8%High +7.2 pts0.080Weak or none
2m½f8 to 11 runners7366524.7%28.9%37.0%34.9%39.7%36.2%28.0%34.2%35.7%32.9%High +3.5 pts0.671Weak or none
2m½f12 to 15 runners4051717.5%31.3%30.0%33.2%52.5%35.5%21.7%22.7%25.0%23.2%High +17.0 pts0.055Weak or none

Flat races at Newcastle with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 17 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Newcastle draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances3,37126.5%33.9%40.0%29.8%33.9%36.2%Strong1,06529.5%33.1%37.7%Weak or noneWeaker lately
5f48027.9%28.8%43.3%29.8%34.0%36.2%Strong15634.6%25.6%39.7%Weak or noneWeaker lately
6f75427.3%31.4%42.3%29.9%33.9%36.2%Strong26030.4%30.4%40.0%Weak or noneWeaker lately
7f75425.3%35.7%39.3%29.7%33.9%36.4%Moderate24827.0%34.3%39.1%Weak or noneHolding
1m67226.6%37.5%36.0%29.7%34.0%36.4%Weak or none20130.3%38.8%30.8%Weak or noneHolding
1m2f34027.6%33.8%38.5%30.1%33.9%36.0%Weak or none11525.2%35.7%39.1%Weak or noneHolding
1m4½f24125.7%34.9%39.8%29.7%34.1%36.2%Weak or none5234.6%30.8%34.6%Weak or noneGone lately
2m½f13021.5%36.2%43.1%29.9%34.2%35.9%Weak or none3318.2%39.4%42.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Newcastle stall by stall at each distance

5f1447449.8%9.6%28.0%28.8%-0.9
5f2461408.7%9.6%25.4%28.8%-3.5
5f3460418.9%9.6%28.5%28.8%-0.4
5f4465429.0%9.6%29.7%28.8%+0.9
5f5455367.9%9.6%24.8%28.8%-4.0
5f6463347.3%9.6%29.4%28.8%+0.5
5f7462429.1%9.6%28.8%28.9%-0.1
5f84634810.4%9.6%29.6%28.9%+0.7
5f94194410.5%9.3%30.3%27.9%+2.4
5f103403710.9%8.9%26.5%26.6%-0.1
5f112663312.4%8.4%28.2%25.2%+3.0
5f12210178.1%8.1%28.1%24.3%+3.8
5f13138139.4%7.7%25.4%23.0%+2.4
5f1410198.9%7.5%23.8%22.4%+1.3
6f1727608.3%9.5%25.4%28.5%-3.1
6f2712709.8%9.5%27.2%28.4%-1.2
6f3720567.8%9.5%26.3%28.5%-2.2
6f4725577.9%9.5%26.5%28.4%-2.0
6f5715588.1%9.5%26.2%28.4%-2.3
6f6718669.2%9.5%28.0%28.5%-0.5
6f77257910.9%9.5%29.4%28.5%+0.9
6f87148011.2%9.5%31.1%28.5%+2.6
6f9663598.9%9.2%29.6%27.6%+1.9
6f105456211.4%8.7%31.2%26.2%+5.0
6f11446439.6%8.3%25.6%25.0%+0.6
6f123613710.2%8.1%29.9%24.2%+5.7
6f13231229.5%7.6%26.0%22.9%+3.1
6f14193126.2%7.5%17.1%22.6%-5.5
7f1724557.6%9.6%25.6%28.8%-3.2
7f2732598.1%9.6%28.3%28.8%-0.5
7f3725729.9%9.6%27.0%28.8%-1.8
7f4727608.3%9.6%27.8%28.8%-1.0
7f57317510.3%9.6%30.8%28.8%+2.0
7f67248311.5%9.6%30.8%28.8%+2.0
7f7733628.5%9.6%28.5%28.8%-0.3
7f8716709.8%9.6%27.2%28.8%-1.6
7f96316810.8%9.2%25.7%27.7%-2.0
7f105465810.6%8.8%29.3%26.4%+2.9
7f11424389.0%8.4%26.9%25.1%+1.8
7f12337308.9%8.1%26.7%24.2%+2.6
7f13201168.0%7.6%24.9%22.8%+2.1
7f14160106.3%7.5%28.8%22.6%+6.2
1m1646589.0%9.6%25.2%28.9%-3.7
1m2648528.0%9.6%26.5%28.9%-2.4
1m36436910.7%9.6%31.6%28.9%+2.7
1m4638629.7%9.6%27.4%28.9%-1.4
1m56436710.4%9.6%28.3%28.9%-0.6
1m6645629.6%9.6%31.6%28.9%+2.8
1m7641599.2%9.6%28.2%28.9%-0.6
1m86496510.0%9.6%28.8%28.9%-0.1
1m9574427.3%9.3%24.7%27.8%-3.1
1m104754810.1%8.8%29.9%26.4%+3.5
1m11375328.5%8.3%27.2%25.0%+2.2
1m12296299.8%8.0%30.1%24.0%+6.0
1m13192157.8%7.6%20.3%22.8%-2.5
1m14149128.1%7.5%24.8%22.5%+2.4
1m2f1322206.2%9.6%22.0%28.7%-6.7
1m2f2328226.7%9.6%20.1%28.8%-8.7
1m2f33233410.5%9.6%29.7%28.7%+1.0
1m2f43273711.3%9.6%31.8%28.8%+3.0
1m2f53243310.2%9.6%31.2%28.9%+2.3
1m2f63313410.3%9.6%29.9%28.9%+1.0
1m2f73273410.4%9.6%28.1%28.9%-0.8
1m2f83253310.2%9.6%32.9%28.8%+4.1
1m2f9292248.2%9.3%28.4%27.8%+0.6
1m2f10243166.6%8.8%24.3%26.5%-2.2
1m2f111922211.5%8.3%27.6%25.0%+2.6
1m2f12155138.4%8.1%27.7%24.2%+3.5
1m2f139288.7%7.7%27.2%23.0%+4.2
1m2f1470912.9%7.5%30.0%22.6%+7.4
1m4½f1232208.6%9.8%27.2%29.4%-2.3
1m4½f2239177.1%9.8%25.1%29.4%-4.3
1m4½f3233198.2%9.8%23.2%29.5%-6.3
1m4½f4233239.9%9.8%28.8%29.4%-0.7
1m4½f52282611.4%9.8%32.5%29.3%+3.1
1m4½f62332912.4%9.8%30.5%29.4%+1.0
1m4½f7232219.1%9.8%30.2%29.4%+0.8
1m4½f8229177.4%9.8%32.8%29.3%+3.5
1m4½f92082512.0%9.5%33.2%28.5%+4.7
1m4½f101652112.7%8.9%29.1%26.8%+2.3
1m4½f11123108.1%8.4%18.7%25.1%-6.5
1m4½f128878.0%8.0%33.0%23.9%+9.0
1m4½f135359.4%7.6%24.5%22.7%+1.8
2m½f112643.2%9.3%19.8%27.9%-8.0
2m½f212375.7%9.3%16.3%27.9%-11.6
2m½f31271814.2%9.3%40.2%27.8%+12.3
2m½f412397.3%9.3%28.5%27.9%+0.5
2m½f512386.5%9.3%19.5%27.8%-8.2
2m½f61281713.3%9.4%37.5%28.1%+9.4
2m½f7124118.9%9.3%27.4%27.9%-0.5
2m½f812664.8%9.3%27.0%27.9%-0.9
2m½f91101311.8%8.8%23.6%26.4%-2.7
2m½f10851112.9%8.1%30.6%24.3%+6.3
2m½f117068.6%7.5%18.6%22.4%-3.8
2m½f1258915.5%7.0%32.8%21.1%+11.6
2m½f135036.0%6.8%24.0%20.5%+3.5

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Newcastle draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances2,60226.9%29.8%33.7%34.0%39.8%36.2%26.3%28.0%29.7%
5f36628.1%29.7%28.1%34.1%43.7%36.2%27.3%26.4%30.9%
6f61027.7%30.0%32.1%33.9%41.1%36.2%25.8%27.7%29.4%
7f58824.8%29.7%35.7%34.0%39.8%36.3%25.9%28.6%29.9%
1m51826.6%29.6%37.5%34.0%36.1%36.4%27.4%28.1%29.4%
1m2f26728.1%30.1%34.1%33.9%37.8%36.0%24.8%29.7%29.3%
1m4½f16629.5%29.4%31.9%34.2%38.6%36.4%27.3%28.4%30.4%
2m½f8724.1%29.7%33.3%34.3%43.7%36.0%23.8%26.5%27.1%

Flat races at Newcastle with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Newcastle draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low2,60226.9%29.8%8.4%8,32870126.3%
Middle2,60233.7%34.0%9.3%9,43087628.0%
High2,60239.8%36.2%10.3%10,0711,03529.7%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Newcastle draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances3,48027.0%29.3%33.9%33.5%39.4%37.2%
5f49527.9%29.4%29.7%33.6%42.4%37.0%
6f74027.3%29.7%32.8%33.4%40.7%36.9%
7f74125.6%29.3%34.7%33.5%39.9%37.2%
1m72428.3%29.0%37.0%33.6%34.8%37.5%
1m2f38226.2%29.4%36.9%33.3%37.2%37.3%
1m4½f26527.5%29.0%31.7%33.3%40.8%37.7%
2m½f13323.3%29.1%30.8%33.5%46.6%37.4%

Every Flat race at Newcastle with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Newcastle draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances87827.1%27.9%34.7%31.9%38.3%40.2%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances1,66825.6%29.0%35.0%34.4%39.7%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances92229.5%31.2%31.1%33.3%39.9%35.4%
3 to 7 runners5f12927.1%28.3%34.1%32.2%38.8%39.5%
8 to 11 runners5f24623.6%29.0%29.7%34.3%46.7%36.7%
12 to 15 runners5f12037.5%31.1%25.0%33.7%37.5%35.2%
3 to 7 runners6f13025.4%28.4%36.2%31.3%38.5%40.3%
8 to 11 runners6f37226.3%29.3%33.3%34.2%41.1%36.6%
12 to 15 runners6f23829.8%31.1%30.3%33.4%41.2%35.5%
3 to 7 runners7f15328.8%27.6%30.7%31.5%40.5%40.9%
8 to 11 runners7f38323.5%28.9%37.9%34.5%38.9%36.7%
12 to 15 runners7f20527.3%31.3%31.7%33.1%41.5%35.6%
3 to 7 runners1m20632.5%27.4%35.9%32.4%31.6%40.2%
8 to 11 runners1m33326.7%28.7%38.1%34.4%35.1%36.9%
12 to 15 runners1m18526.5%31.2%36.2%33.3%37.8%35.4%
3 to 7 runners1m2f11521.7%27.8%43.5%31.8%35.7%40.4%
8 to 11 runners1m2f16726.9%29.3%37.1%34.2%35.9%36.5%
12 to 15 runners1m2f10030.0%31.5%29.0%33.3%41.0%35.2%
3 to 7 runners1m4½f9924.2%28.3%31.3%31.9%44.4%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m4½f11527.0%28.5%32.2%34.7%40.9%36.8%
12 to 15 runners1m4½f5135.3%31.5%31.4%33.0%33.3%35.6%
3 to 7 runners2m½f4621.7%28.0%26.1%31.9%52.2%40.1%
8 to 11 runners2m½f5230.8%28.9%28.8%35.0%42.3%36.1%
12 to 15 runners2m½f2313.0%31.0%34.8%33.2%52.2%35.8%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Newcastle draw by going, 8 or more runners

AWAll distances2,60226.9%29.8%39.8%36.2%33.7%
AW5f36628.1%29.7%43.7%36.2%28.1%
AW6f61027.7%30.0%41.1%36.2%32.1%
AW7f58824.8%29.7%39.8%36.3%35.7%
AW1m51826.6%29.6%36.1%36.4%37.5%
AW1m2f26728.1%30.1%37.8%36.0%34.1%
AW1m4½f16629.5%29.4%38.6%36.4%31.9%
AW2m½f8724.1%29.7%43.7%36.0%33.3%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Newcastle individual stalls, most-run distances

6f1589528.8%9.5%25.0%
6f2572549.4%9.5%27.4%
6f3583508.6%9.5%28.0%
6f4587478.0%9.5%26.7%
6f5577447.6%9.5%26.2%
6f6583569.6%9.5%28.6%
6f75896511.0%9.5%30.7%
6f85786010.4%9.5%30.1%
6f9547488.8%9.3%29.4%
6f104415011.3%8.8%30.6%
6f11356339.3%8.4%25.3%
6f122883110.8%8.1%29.5%
6f13172179.9%7.6%25.0%
6f1414185.7%7.5%14.9%
7f1562407.1%9.7%25.1%
7f2570447.7%9.7%27.0%
7f35656110.8%9.7%29.0%
7f4571488.4%9.7%27.7%
7f55736110.6%9.7%29.7%
7f65646311.2%9.7%31.6%
7f7569508.8%9.7%30.4%
7f8560529.3%9.7%27.3%
7f94925711.6%9.3%26.4%
7f104084410.8%8.8%29.7%
7f11320278.4%8.4%27.5%
7f12251249.6%8.1%28.7%
7f13135128.9%7.6%26.7%
7f1410776.5%7.5%26.2%

The two most-run distances at Newcastle in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Newcastle 6f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 27.3%Since 2016 Middle: 31.4%Since 2016 High: 42.3%Since 2024 Low: 30.4%Since 2024 Middle: 30.4%Since 2024 High: 40%Expected by chance Low: 29.9%Expected by chance Middle: 33.9%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Newcastle next Flat meeting, 16 October 2026, with the draw record

16 Oct 2616:08quinnbet.com Handicap StakesClass 51m4½f1216629.5%31.9%38.6%29.4%34.2%36.4%
16 Oct 2616:43Northumbria Leisure For Gaming Machines Handicap StakesClass 41m2f1126728.1%34.1%37.8%30.1%33.9%36.0%
16 Oct 2617:15QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Novice StakesClass 45f649527.9%29.7%42.4%29.4%33.6%37.0%
16 Oct 2617:45Northumbria Leisure For Pool Tables Selling StakesClass 41m572428.3%37.0%34.8%29.0%33.6%37.5%
16 Oct 2618:15Margaret Macklam Memorial Handicap StakesClass 41m1051826.6%37.5%36.1%29.6%34.0%36.4%
16 Oct 2618:45Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 45f1136628.1%28.1%43.7%29.7%34.1%36.2%
16 Oct 2619:15Central Employment & Training Partnership Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 67f958824.8%35.7%39.8%29.7%34.0%36.3%
16 Oct 2619:45Central Employment & Training Partnership Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 67f958824.8%35.7%39.8%29.7%34.0%36.3%
16 Oct 2620:15Quaff Box Handicap StakesClass 65f1136628.1%28.1%43.7%29.7%34.1%36.2%

Declared runners exclude non-runners. Races of 8 or more declared runners use the 8 or more runners record at the same distance, smaller fields use the all field sizes record. Blank history means fewer than 20 races at that distance since 2019.

Newcastle 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Stall 12Stall 13Stall 14Win % Stall 1: 8.8%8.8%Win % Stall 2: 9.4%9.4%Win % Stall 3: 8.6%8.6%Win % Stall 4: 8%8%Win % Stall 5: 7.6%7.6%Win % Stall 6: 9.6%9.6%Win % Stall 7: 11%11%Win % Stall 8: 10.4%10.4%Win % Stall 9: 8.8%8.8%Win % Stall 10: 11.3%11.3%Win % Stall 11: 9.3%9.3%Win % Stall 12: 10.8%10.8%Win % Stall 13: 9.9%9.9%Win % Stall 14: 5.7%5.7%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.5%9.5%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8.8%8.8%Expected by chance Stall 11: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 12: 8.1%8.1%Expected by chance Stall 13: 7.6%7.6%Expected by chance Stall 14: 7.5%7.5%

Win % by Stall

Declared runners by draw third, next Flat meeting

16:08The Floors Munky silksThe Floors Munky1Low29.5%29.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Stage Show silksStage Show2Low29.5%29.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Togeather Forever silksTogeather Forever3Low29.5%29.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Bruce Banner silksBruce Banner4Low29.5%29.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Jujubella silksJujubella5Middle31.9%34.2%1m4½f12166
16:08Mr Moonshine silksMr Moonshine6Middle31.9%34.2%1m4½f12166
16:08Prince Achille silksPrince Achille7Middle31.9%34.2%1m4½f12166
16:08Elemental Eye silksElemental Eye8Middle31.9%34.2%1m4½f12166
16:08Farabove The Limit silksFarabove The Limit9High38.6%36.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Charlie Darling silksCharlie Darling10High38.6%36.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Saxophonist silksSaxophonist11High38.6%36.4%1m4½f12166
16:08Habari silksHabari12High38.6%36.4%1m4½f12166
16:43Porth Eilian silksPorth Eilian1Low28.1%30.1%1m2f11267
16:43Qitaal silksQitaal2Low28.1%30.1%1m2f11267
16:43Yafaarr silksYafaarr3Low28.1%30.1%1m2f11267
16:43Patrol silksPatrol4Middle34.1%33.9%1m2f11267
16:43Krissy silksKrissy5Middle34.1%33.9%1m2f11267
16:43Yafreh silksYafreh6Middle34.1%33.9%1m2f11267
16:43Wanderlust silksWanderlust7Middle34.1%33.9%1m2f11267
16:43Clatford silksClatford8High37.8%36.0%1m2f11267
16:43Guesstimate silksGuesstimate9High37.8%36.0%1m2f11267
16:43Model Yuko silksModel Yuko10High37.8%36.0%1m2f11267
16:43Variety Act silksVariety Act11High37.8%36.0%1m2f11267
17:15Qila silksQila1Low27.9%29.4%5f6495
17:15Nip About silksNip About2Low27.9%29.4%5f6495
17:15Celtic Arrow silksCeltic Arrow3Middle29.7%33.6%5f6495
17:15Ennoble silksEnnoble4Middle29.7%33.6%5f6495
17:15Sunday River silksSunday River5High42.4%37.0%5f6495
17:15Moretons silksMoretons6High42.4%37.0%5f6495
17:45First Ambition silksFirst Ambition1Low28.3%29.0%1m5724
17:45Candonomore silksCandonomore2Middle37.0%33.6%1m5724
17:45Kaleido silksKaleido3Middle37.0%33.6%1m5724
17:45Priapos silksPriapos4High34.8%37.5%1m5724
17:45King Casper silksKing Casper5High34.8%37.5%1m5724
18:15Nepal silksNepal1Low26.6%29.6%1m10518
18:15Jungle Ruler silksJungle Ruler2Low26.6%29.6%1m10518
18:15Rogue Encore silksRogue Encore3Low26.6%29.6%1m10518
18:15Coolree silksCoolree4Middle37.5%34.0%1m10518
18:15They All Know Me silksThey All Know Me5Middle37.5%34.0%1m10518
18:15Media Legend silksMedia Legend6Middle37.5%34.0%1m10518
18:15Thunder Wonder silksThunder Wonder7High36.1%36.4%1m10518
18:15Intrusively silksIntrusively8High36.1%36.4%1m10518
18:15Urban Road silksUrban Road9High36.1%36.4%1m10518
18:15Matter of Britain silksMatter of Britain10High36.1%36.4%1m10518
18:45Dolos Dream silksDolos Dream1Low28.1%29.7%5f11366
18:45Temple of Athena silksTemple of Athena2Low28.1%29.7%5f11366
18:45Venture Capital silksVenture Capital3Low28.1%29.7%5f11366
18:45Sports Coach silksSports Coach4Middle28.1%34.1%5f11366
18:45Little Mi Mi silksLittle Mi Mi5Middle28.1%34.1%5f11366
18:45Leading Times silksLeading Times6Middle28.1%34.1%5f11366

Each declared runner placed in its third by stall order among the declared runners (first 50 runners of the meeting). Figures are the course and distance record for that third since 2019.

Latest Flat winners at Newcastle and their draw

12 Oct 26Moofeed (IRE) silksMoofeed (IRE)6Middle106f2.38
12 Oct 26Woolridge (GB) silksWoolridge (GB)7Middle126f6.50
12 Oct 26Intrusively (GB) silksIntrusively (GB)3Low137f6.00
12 Oct 26Boubyan (IRE) silksBoubyan (IRE)5Middle131m11.00
12 Oct 26Acclaimed Freedom (GB) silksAcclaimed Freedom (GB)10High116f6.50
12 Oct 26Juan Les Pins (GB) silksJuan Les Pins (GB)11High126f8.50
12 Oct 26Siouxperb (GB) silksSiouxperb (GB)4Middle66f3.75
12 Oct 26Carmel Valley (IRE) silksCarmel Valley (IRE)1Low111m23.00
12 Oct 26Tropbien (GB) silksTropbien (GB)2Low71m2f2.50
2 Oct 26Koko Blue (GB) silksKoko Blue (GB)4Middle101m2f2.75
2 Oct 26Blazing Son (GB) silksBlazing Son (GB)3Low106f4.50
2 Oct 26Coramento (GB) silksCoramento (GB)6High61m4.33
2 Oct 26Ice Show (GB) silksIce Show (GB)8Middle127f13.00
2 Oct 26Finn Ironside (GB) silksFinn Ironside (GB)8Middle137f3.75
2 Oct 26Big Tribe (IRE) silksBig Tribe (IRE)5Low126f12.00
2 Oct 26Noozhaa (GB) silksNoozhaa (GB)1Low61m1.83
2 Oct 26Waiting For Archie (GB) silksWaiting For Archie (GB)9High107f15.00
2 Oct 26He's Our Cracker (IRE) silksHe's Our Cracker (IRE)1Low91m2f6.00
1 Oct 26Whiskey Pete (IRE) silksWhiskey Pete (IRE)3Middle81m12.00
1 Oct 26Cotai Starlight (IRE) silksCotai Starlight (IRE)5Middle95f6.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Newcastle in the data with a full draw.

Newcastle win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m2f1m4½f2m½fLow third 5f: 28.1%Low third 6f: 27.7%Low third 7f: 24.8%Low third 1m: 26.6%Low third 1m2f: 28.1%Low third 1m4½f: 29.5%Low third 2m½f: 24.1%Middle third 5f: 28.1%Middle third 6f: 32.1%Middle third 7f: 35.7%Middle third 1m: 37.5%Middle third 1m2f: 34.1%Middle third 1m4½f: 31.9%Middle third 2m½f: 33.3%High third 5f: 43.7%High third 6f: 41.1%High third 7f: 39.8%High third 1m: 36.1%High third 1m2f: 37.8%High third 1m4½f: 38.6%High third 2m½f: 43.7%

Win % of races by Distance

Newcastle win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 20.7%Low third 2020: 25.2%Low third 2021: 25.2%Low third 2022: 30%Low third 2023: 24.8%Low third 2024: 30.5%Low third 2025: 28.2%Low third 2026: 29.6%29.6%Middle third 2019: 36.5%Middle third 2020: 30.2%Middle third 2021: 36.7%Middle third 2022: 35.2%Middle third 2023: 32.8%Middle third 2024: 29.8%Middle third 2025: 35.5%Middle third 2026: 35%35%High third 2019: 43.2%High third 2020: 44.5%High third 2021: 39%High third 2022: 35.9%High third 2023: 42.4%High third 2024: 40.1%High third 2025: 36.6%High third 2026: 35.4%35.4%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Newcastle?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Newcastle, the draw rates strong from 754 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.3% against 36.2% by chance (rated strong).

Does the draw matter at Newcastle on the all-weather?

Newcastle's straight Tapeta trips from 5f to a mile carry most of its races, and each has a row in the distance table below. The high third has run above chance across the sprint rows in the current figures.

How does field size change the draw at Newcastle?

Going plays no part in the matrix on the Newcastle all-weather, so each trip is split by 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners instead, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Newcastle draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 6f the check reads weaker lately, from 260 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Newcastle?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Newcastle, the draw rates strong, with low draws winning 27.3% of 754 races against 29.9% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.3% against 36.2% (rated strong).

Which stall is best at Newcastle over 5f?

Stall 9 has the best top-three record over 5f at Newcastle since 2016, placing in 30.3% of 419 runs against 28% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Newcastle?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 26.5% of Newcastle races against 29.8% by chance, and high draws 40% against 36.2%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Is a high draw a problem in the Northumberland Plate?

The Northumberland Plate is run on Newcastle's round course over about two miles, and the 2m½f row in the distance table covers that trip. The thirds there rest on far fewer races than the straight course rows.

How often are the Newcastle draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseNewcastle course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseNewcastle racecardsThe next meeting's full cardNorthumberland Plate roll of honourPast winners of the raceSouthwell draw biasThe same thirds at another course

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