RaceWatch methodology: definitions and data sources

Where do RaceWatch figures come from?

RaceWatch figures come from British and Irish results since 1990, the day's declarations and the prices returned for every run, both Industry SP and Betfair SP where it exists.

Every run in the archive carries its finishing position, the number of runners, the starting price and, where available, the Betfair SP, together with the course, distance, going, class, trainer, jockey and owner. Declarations add the horses due to run today and tomorrow, which is what pages about returners, course and distance winners and today's runners are built from.

Figures are always about a group of runs: a trainer's runs after a break, favourites on heavy ground, a stall at one course. The group, the window and the number of runs are printed with the figure, so the same definitions apply whether a table covers ten seasons or the season to date.

How are win % and place % calculated?

Win % is the number of winners divided by the number of runs, multiplied by 100. Place % is the number of placed finishes divided by the number of runs, on the same basis.

A run counts once a horse has come under starter's orders, so a horse withdrawn before the race is not a run and does not lower anyone's win rate. A trainer with 30 winners from 200 runs has a win % of 15, whatever the prices. Win % answers how often a group wins

Place % counts a run as placed when it finishes first in fields of two to four, in the first two in fields of five to seven, and in the first three in fields of eight or more. Place % is most useful beside win %, because a group that places often but rarely wins behaves differently from one that either wins or finishes well beaten.

• Runs: horses that came under starter's orders
• Wins: first place in the official result, after any stewards' changes
• Win %: wins divided by runs
• Place %: placed finishes divided by runs

Racing records

RaceWatch sets each run's expected chance from its starting price, scaled within each race so that the chances add up to exactly one winner.

A price implies a chance: 4/1 implies one in five. Added up across a race, those raw chances come to more than one because of the bookmakers' margin, so RaceWatch divides each runner's raw chance by the race total. That race-normalised probability is the runner's expected share of a win, and adding it up across a group gives expected winners.

Above 1.00 it won more often than the market expected, below 1.00 less often.

How is profit and loss calculated at Industry SP and Betfair SP?

Profit and loss is to a £1 level stake on every run in the group. A winner returns its starting price as profit and a loser costs £1, at Industry SP and, where covered, at Betfair SP.

A 5/1 winner adds £5 and each loser takes away £1, so ten runs at 5/1 with two winners show a profit of £2.

RaceWatch holds Betfair SP from March 2024 only, and not for every race since, so a coverage rule applies: Betfair SP profit and loss is shown only where Betfair SP covers at least 95 of every 100 runs in the table's window, and the column is left out otherwise. All Betfair SP figures are before any Betfair commission.

Which windows and seasons does RaceWatch use?

RaceWatch counts each jumps season from 1 May to 30 April, labelled like 2025/26, and each Flat season as a calendar year, labelled like 2025. Every table names its window.

Long windows such as ten or five seasons give samples large enough to trust; season-to-date and this-month windows show what is happening now. Many pages pair the two, so a trainer's long-run record after a break sits beside the current season. Where a page mixes codes, the jumps seasons and Flat years are listed separately in the window line.

What minimum samples does RaceWatch apply?

Every RaceWatch table states its own minimum number of runs in its notes, and rows below that minimum are left out rather than shown with a misleading figure.

The minimum depends on the question. Trainer and jockey tables typically need at least 30 runs, draw tables that show single stalls need at least 100 runs per stall, and season-to-date leaderboards start from 10 runs. Where a figure is shown on a small sample, such as a horse's own record, the runs are printed beside it so a strike rate built on four runs is read for what it is.

How are silks and refresh times handled?

Silks appear beside horse names wherever the colours are held for that runner, and data pages refresh every night after the results, with live pages updating through each race day.

Silks are the owner's registered racing colours as carried on the racecard. Where colours are not available for a runner, a blank placeholder keeps the table aligned. Nightly rebuilds recalculate every season table once the day's results are in. Pages built on today's declarations, such as returners and course and distance winners running today, update through the race day so non-runners and changes show up promptly.

What do the free pages leave out?

The free pages leave out member data: RWS scores, live bookmaker prices and market moves, Speed+ speed and sectional data figures, Telegram alerts and follow lists, FormLines+ and Angles.

Free pages describe groups of runs and the season's leading names. Member data applies to individual runners on today's cards, so it stays inside the app. That split keeps the free pages focused on checkable history, with the window and sample printed, while members get the same measures on every declared runner alongside speed and sectional data speed data and price movement.

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