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Limerick draw bias: flat races at Patrickswell

At Limerick over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 24.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (89 races), middle draws 29.2% and high draws 46.1%, against 31.3%, 33% and 35.7% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Limerick declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 11 July 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
7f
Trip where the draw stands out most
308
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 46.1% v 35.7%

At Limerick over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 24.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (89 races), middle draws 29.2% and high draws 46.1%, against 31.3%, 33.0% and 35.7% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 7f, where the high third has won 50.0% of 64 races against 36.7% by chance (moderate).Sample: 89 races · Window: 7 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Limerick draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3083,84429.5%30.3%31.2%33.6%39.6%36.1%21.4%24.6%25.9%24.0%High +3.5 pts0.445Weak or none
6½fAll goingAll field sizes5058738.0%29.3%36.0%34.3%26.0%36.4%27.2%22.9%26.8%25.6%Low +8.7 pts0.246Weak or none
6½fGoodAll field sizes2325943.5%29.5%34.8%34.1%21.7%36.3%32.5%20.5%27.7%26.6%Low +14.0 pts0.238Not enough data
6½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2227227.3%29.3%36.4%34.2%36.4%36.5%23.8%25.8%23.2%24.3%Middle +2.2 pts0.971Not enough data
6½fAll going12 to 15 runners3141248.4%30.2%32.3%33.9%19.4%35.9%26.6%18.6%23.0%22.6%Low +18.2 pts0.056Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes6481631.3%30.5%18.8%32.9%50.0%36.7%20.4%21.7%27.8%23.5%High +13.3 pts0.030Moderate
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3950935.9%30.5%17.9%32.7%46.2%36.8%20.5%21.1%26.7%23.0%High +9.4 pts0.141Not enough data
7fAll going8 to 11 runners2322126.1%29.4%17.4%33.6%56.5%37.0%27.7%29.7%35.4%31.2%High +19.5 pts0.120Not enough data
7fAll going12 to 15 runners2737140.7%31.0%14.8%33.1%44.4%35.9%20.9%20.3%24.1%21.8%Low +9.7 pts0.129Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes891,17024.7%31.3%29.2%33.0%46.1%35.7%19.1%22.9%26.0%22.8%High +10.4 pts0.118Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes4053022.5%31.3%35.0%33.0%42.5%35.7%18.7%23.0%25.8%22.6%High +6.8 pts0.457Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4154826.8%31.4%22.0%32.8%51.2%35.8%19.7%21.2%26.0%22.4%High +15.4 pts0.106Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners2322321.7%29.7%26.1%34.5%52.2%35.8%30.3%29.9%32.5%30.9%High +16.4 pts0.261Not enough data
1mAll going12 to 15 runners4357927.9%32.1%23.3%33.1%48.8%34.7%18.3%19.8%28.4%22.3%High +14.1 pts0.138Weak or none
1mAll going16 or more runners2336821.7%31.3%43.5%31.3%34.8%37.5%13.9%23.5%18.8%18.8%Middle +12.2 pts0.404Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2433037.5%32.1%16.7%33.0%45.8%34.9%18.9%17.4%28.7%21.8%High +10.9 pts0.226Not enough data
1m3½fAll goingAll field sizes5771929.8%30.0%42.1%34.0%28.1%36.1%21.6%29.3%20.8%23.8%Middle +8.1 pts0.347Weak or none
1m3½fGoodAll field sizes2428737.5%29.9%37.5%34.5%25.0%35.6%28.7%26.5%21.6%25.1%Low +7.6 pts0.525Not enough data
1m3½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2129319.0%30.0%52.4%33.8%28.6%36.2%13.5%29.6%20.8%21.5%Middle +18.6 pts0.189Not enough data
1m3½fAll going8 to 11 runners2018920.0%27.4%50.0%36.0%30.0%36.5%23.1%39.7%30.4%31.7%Middle +14.0 pts0.424Not enough data
1m3½fAll going12 to 15 runners2737037.0%31.4%40.7%33.5%22.2%35.2%23.3%27.4%16.2%21.9%Middle +7.2 pts0.369Not enough data
1m4½fAll goingAll field sizes2222731.8%29.6%27.3%34.5%40.9%35.9%26.5%28.2%32.1%29.1%High +5.0 pts0.768Not enough data

Flat races at Limerick with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 7 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Limerick draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances30829.5%31.2%39.6%30.3%33.6%36.1%Weak or none7230.6%23.6%45.8%Weak or noneStronger lately
6½f5038.0%36.0%26.0%29.3%34.3%36.4%Weak or none771.4%0.0%28.6%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f6431.3%18.8%50.0%30.5%32.9%36.7%Moderate1533.3%6.7%60.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m8924.7%29.2%46.1%31.3%33.0%35.7%Weak or none2429.2%25.0%45.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m3½f5729.8%42.1%28.1%30.0%34.0%36.1%Weak or none825.0%50.0%25.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4½f2231.8%27.3%40.9%29.6%34.5%35.9%Not enough data911.1%33.3%55.6%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Limerick stall by stall at each distance

7f16346.3%8.2%25.4%24.7%+0.7
7f260610.0%8.3%23.3%24.9%-1.6
7f36035.0%8.2%25.0%24.7%+0.3
7f461813.1%8.2%24.6%24.7%-0.1
7f56035.0%8.1%20.0%24.4%-4.4
7f65835.2%8.2%29.3%24.6%+4.7
7f75846.9%8.2%15.5%24.6%-9.0
7f85946.8%8.3%18.6%24.8%-6.1
7f956610.7%8.2%25.0%24.6%+0.4
7f105323.8%7.8%26.4%23.5%+2.9
1m17945.1%7.9%22.8%23.8%-1.0
1m27945.1%7.9%15.2%23.6%-8.4
1m38178.6%7.9%22.2%23.8%-1.6
1m47211.4%7.8%18.1%23.5%-5.4
1m58056.3%8.0%18.8%24.1%-5.3
1m67856.4%7.9%25.6%23.8%+1.9
1m7781215.4%8.0%26.9%23.9%+3.0
1m88067.5%8.0%30.0%23.9%+6.1
1m978810.3%7.8%20.5%23.3%-2.8
1m107356.8%7.6%24.7%22.8%+1.8
1m1174810.8%7.6%28.4%22.9%+5.5
1m126146.6%7.2%26.2%21.6%+4.6
1m135447.4%7.0%16.7%21.1%-4.5

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Limerick draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances22528.4%30.5%31.6%33.5%40.0%36.1%21.2%24.8%25.9%
6½f3737.8%29.4%35.1%34.3%27.0%36.4%27.6%23.8%26.3%
7f4332.6%30.7%18.6%32.5%48.8%36.7%20.5%21.1%27.5%
1m6923.2%31.5%29.0%32.9%47.8%35.6%19.7%22.0%25.7%
1m3½f3423.5%29.8%50.0%34.4%26.5%35.8%18.0%31.7%22.4%
1m4½f2128.6%29.8%28.6%34.4%42.9%35.8%25.8%28.0%32.1%

Flat races at Limerick with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Limerick draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low22528.4%30.5%7.4%8606421.2%
Middle22531.6%33.5%7.6%9347124.8%
High22540.0%36.1%8.9%1,0119025.9%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Limerick draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances26028.1%30.3%31.5%33.2%40.4%36.5%
6½f4134.1%29.4%36.6%33.8%29.3%36.8%
7f5030.0%30.7%20.0%32.3%50.0%37.0%
1m8223.2%31.2%29.3%32.9%47.6%36.0%
1m3½f3625.0%29.7%50.0%34.1%25.0%36.2%
1m4½f2634.6%29.6%26.9%34.1%38.5%36.3%

Every Flat race at Limerick with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Limerick draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances3525.7%29.6%31.4%31.4%42.9%39.0%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances8127.2%28.9%33.3%34.5%39.5%36.6%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances10634.9%31.4%28.3%33.5%36.8%35.1%
16 or more runnersAll distances3813.2%31.3%36.8%31.3%50.0%37.5%
12 to 15 runners6½f2250.0%30.4%31.8%33.9%18.2%35.7%
12 to 15 runners1m3729.7%32.2%16.2%33.2%54.1%34.6%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Limerick draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances11425.4%30.4%37.7%35.8%36.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances4436.4%30.9%36.4%36.0%27.3%
SoftAll distances3928.2%30.7%51.3%36.2%20.5%
HeavyAll distances2020.0%29.7%45.0%36.8%35.0%
Good6½f2245.5%29.5%22.7%36.2%31.8%
Good1m3517.1%31.6%45.7%35.5%37.1%
Good1m3½f2030.0%29.6%25.0%35.4%45.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Limerick 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 24.7%Since 2016 Middle: 29.2%Since 2016 High: 46.1%Since 2024 Low: 29.2%Since 2024 Middle: 25%Since 2024 High: 45.8%Expected by chance Low: 31.3%Expected by chance Middle: 33%Expected by chance High: 35.7%

Win % of races by Draw third

Limerick win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%6½f7f1m1m3½f1m4½fLow third 6½f: 37.8%Low third 7f: 32.6%Low third 1m: 23.2%Low third 1m3½f: 23.5%Low third 1m4½f: 28.6%Middle third 6½f: 35.1%Middle third 7f: 18.6%Middle third 1m: 29%Middle third 1m3½f: 50%Middle third 1m4½f: 28.6%High third 6½f: 27%High third 7f: 48.8%High third 1m: 47.8%High third 1m3½f: 26.5%High third 1m4½f: 42.9%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Limerick and their draw

11 Jul 26Themis (IRE) silksThemis (IRE)5High61m4½f2.75
11 Jul 26Magna Gee Gee (IRE) silksMagna Gee Gee (IRE)11High121m4½f6.50
11 Jul 26Nellcote (IRE) silksNellcote (IRE)7High91m4½f3.50
11 Jul 26Al Haarith (IRE) silksAl Haarith (IRE)7High61m1.12
11 Jul 26Glen Breeze (IRE) silksGlen Breeze (IRE)2Low146½f3.50
11 Jul 26Rappell (IRE) silksRappell (IRE)2Low146½f2.50
11 Jul 26Dancing Saxon (IRE) silksDancing Saxon (IRE)9High116½f4.00
19 Jun 26Expert Dancer (GB) silksExpert Dancer (GB)4Low137f3.12
19 Jun 26Satono Chevalier (IRE) silksSatono Chevalier (IRE)11High81m4½f10.00
19 Jun 26Themis (IRE) silksThemis (IRE)2Low121m4½f9.50
19 Jun 26Layfayette (IRE) silksLayfayette (IRE)12High101m4½f10.00
19 Jun 26Carvalhal (IRE) silksCarvalhal (IRE)19High131m4.50
19 Jun 26Spanish Temptress (IRE) silksSpanish Temptress (IRE)6Middle61m2.62
19 Jun 26Zenford (IRE) silksZenford (IRE)3Low67f1.91
19 Jun 26Motta Alta (IRE) silksMotta Alta (IRE)2Low167f12.00
10 Jun 26Unfamiliar (IRE) silksUnfamiliar (IRE)9Middle137f8.00
10 Jun 26Our Lucky Lady (IRE) silksOur Lucky Lady (IRE)14High142m1f2.88
10 Jun 26Imnotleavinyou (IRE) silksImnotleavinyou (IRE)12High147f8.50
10 Jun 26Java Wood (IRE) silksJava Wood (IRE)7Low151m7.00
10 Jun 26Monvoe (IRE) silksMonvoe (IRE)8High91m2.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Limerick in the data with a full draw.

Limerick win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 27.3%Low third 2020: 14.3%Low third 2021: 25%Low third 2022: 28%Low third 2023: 50%Low third 2024: 31.8%Low third 2025: 20.8%Low third 2026: 38.5%38.5%Middle third 2019: 36.4%Middle third 2020: 48.6%Middle third 2021: 38.9%Middle third 2022: 28%Middle third 2023: 16.7%Middle third 2024: 27.3%Middle third 2025: 37.5%Middle third 2026: 7.7%7.7%High third 2019: 36.4%High third 2020: 37.1%High third 2021: 36.1%High third 2022: 44%High third 2023: 33.3%High third 2024: 40.9%High third 2025: 41.7%High third 2026: 53.8%53.8%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Limerick?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Limerick, the draw rates weak or none from 89 races. It stands out most over 7f, where the high third has won 50% against 36.7% by chance (rated moderate).

Does a low draw help on Limerick's right-handed bends?

Across all distances pooled, the high third at Limerick has done slightly better than the low third against chance. The sample is modest, so the race count on each row matters.

How do going and field size change the draw at Limerick?

The bias matrix gives every Limerick trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Limerick draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads too few recent races, from 24 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Limerick?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Limerick, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 24.7% of 89 races against 31.3% by chance. It stands out most over 7f, where the high third has won 50% against 36.7% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Limerick over 7f?

Stall 6 has the best top-three record over 7f at Limerick since 2016, placing in 29.3% of 58 runs against 23.5% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Limerick?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.5% of Limerick races against 30.3% by chance, and high draws 39.6% against 36.1%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

How often does Limerick stage Flat races?

Limerick races mostly over jumps, and its Flat figures come from 225 races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Several distances fall below the 20-race minimum and are hidden.

How often are the Limerick draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseLimerick course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseLimerick racecardsThe next meeting's full cardWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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