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Goodwood draw bias: the straight sprints and the tight bend

At Goodwood over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 45.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (168 races), middle draws 31.5% and high draws 23.8%, against 30%, 34% and 36% by chance. Bias rating: strong. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Goodwood declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 11 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Strong
Rating on the most-run trip
7f
Trip where the draw stands out most
864
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 45.8% v 30.0%

At Goodwood over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 45.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (168 races), middle draws 31.5% and high draws 23.8%, against 30.0%, 34.0% and 36.0% by chance. Bias rating: strong.Sample: 168 races · Window: 30 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Goodwood draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes8649,64035.6%29.8%36.6%34.0%28.1%36.2%28.6%28.2%24.2%26.9%Low +5.8 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll goingAll field sizes931,02937.6%29.9%39.8%33.6%22.6%36.5%29.4%31.4%21.3%27.1%Low +7.7 pts0.019Moderate
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2326834.8%30.3%47.8%33.8%17.4%35.9%32.9%26.7%18.8%25.7%Middle +14.0 pts0.158Not enough data
5fGoodAll field sizes4247133.3%29.9%45.2%33.2%21.4%36.8%23.9%32.7%23.7%26.8%Middle +12.0 pts0.096Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2829046.4%29.4%25.0%34.0%28.6%36.6%34.9%33.7%19.8%29.0%Low +17.0 pts0.141Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners6461037.5%29.0%37.5%34.2%25.0%36.8%37.3%34.6%24.0%31.5%Low +8.5 pts0.120Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners2127438.1%32.1%42.9%32.1%19.0%35.8%19.3%30.7%19.4%23.0%Middle +10.8 pts0.268Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners2927734.5%29.2%44.8%33.7%20.7%37.1%34.6%36.6%24.3%31.4%Middle +11.1 pts0.178Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2019045.0%28.3%25.0%34.8%30.0%36.8%40.7%34.8%21.4%31.6%Low +16.7 pts0.251Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes1641,98231.7%30.1%40.2%33.8%28.0%36.1%24.3%26.4%23.8%24.8%Middle +6.4 pts0.077Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3556125.7%30.1%42.9%34.0%31.4%35.9%20.2%16.9%19.1%18.7%Middle +8.9 pts0.544Not enough data
6fGoodAll field sizes6670134.8%30.6%45.5%33.3%19.7%36.1%26.4%33.0%25.4%28.2%Middle +12.2 pts0.016Moderate
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6372031.7%29.4%33.3%34.2%34.9%36.4%25.5%27.5%25.8%26.2%Low +2.3 pts0.921Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1091,01430.3%29.2%45.9%34.2%23.9%36.6%30.6%34.5%31.5%32.2%Middle +11.7 pts0.010Strong
6fAll going12 to 15 runners2938437.9%31.6%24.1%33.0%37.9%35.4%23.1%25.2%19.9%22.7%Low +6.3 pts0.571Not enough data
6fAll going16 or more runners2658430.8%31.9%34.6%33.2%34.6%34.9%15.0%12.9%12.3%13.4%Middle +1.4 pts0.986Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners5046734.0%30.2%46.0%33.3%20.0%36.5%29.1%36.1%31.0%32.1%Middle +12.7 pts0.041Moderate
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4440634.1%28.5%36.4%34.9%29.5%36.7%34.5%32.6%30.9%32.5%Low +5.6 pts0.568Weak or none
7fAll goingAll field sizes1681,94845.8%30.0%31.5%34.0%23.8%36.0%31.5%27.5%19.7%25.9%Low +15.8 pts<0.001Strong
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes5362650.9%30.5%24.5%33.7%26.4%35.7%34.2%25.2%18.4%25.4%Low +20.4 pts0.007Moderate
7fGoodAll field sizes6880245.6%30.1%32.4%33.8%23.5%36.0%29.6%28.8%18.8%25.4%Low +15.5 pts0.015Moderate
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4752040.4%29.4%38.3%34.4%21.3%36.2%31.2%28.1%22.9%27.1%Low +11.0 pts0.079Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners9488235.1%29.0%35.1%34.6%30.9%36.5%32.8%35.2%28.3%32.0%Low +6.1 pts0.360Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners5370062.3%31.5%22.6%33.1%17.0%35.4%30.0%24.1%15.3%22.7%Low +30.8 pts<0.001Moderate
7fAll going16 or more runners2136652.4%31.1%38.1%33.6%9.5%35.3%31.6%14.6%7.0%17.2%Low +21.3 pts0.028Not enough data
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2724940.7%29.2%22.2%34.6%40.7%36.1%35.6%30.2%32.2%32.5%Low +11.5 pts0.275Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners3734837.8%29.3%35.1%34.0%27.0%36.7%32.4%38.1%25.8%31.9%Low +8.5 pts0.388Not enough data
7fGood12 to 15 runners2127852.4%31.4%23.8%33.4%28.6%35.2%26.4%24.7%17.3%22.7%Low +21.0 pts0.149Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3028526.7%28.4%46.7%35.1%26.7%36.5%30.9%36.0%27.9%31.6%Middle +11.6 pts0.376Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1031,14335.9%29.8%36.9%34.3%27.2%35.9%29.9%28.0%23.7%27.0%Low +6.1 pts0.157Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2631842.3%30.2%26.9%34.2%30.8%35.6%29.9%22.2%22.1%24.5%Low +12.1 pts0.402Not enough data
1mGoodAll field sizes3636130.6%29.0%47.2%34.6%22.2%36.4%31.1%34.7%24.4%29.9%Middle +12.6 pts0.159Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4146436.6%30.2%34.1%34.1%29.3%35.7%28.9%26.8%24.2%26.5%Low +6.4 pts0.599Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners6761126.9%28.7%46.3%34.8%26.9%36.5%34.1%35.4%29.6%32.9%Middle +11.5 pts0.117Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners2329647.8%32.2%30.4%33.1%21.7%34.8%28.4%24.5%17.5%23.3%Low +15.6 pts0.231Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners2724629.6%27.9%55.6%35.1%14.8%37.0%34.8%38.4%26.4%32.9%Middle +20.5 pts0.033Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2522628.0%29.1%36.0%34.7%36.0%36.3%33.3%33.3%32.9%33.2%Middle +1.3 pts0.988Not enough data
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes4752940.4%30.0%27.7%33.8%31.9%36.3%29.4%24.2%26.7%26.7%Low +10.4 pts0.290Weak or none
1m1fAll going8 to 11 runners2826350.0%28.8%28.6%34.0%21.4%37.2%32.9%31.5%31.6%31.9%Low +21.2 pts0.039Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1191,26426.1%29.6%34.5%34.0%40.3%36.4%24.9%29.3%30.1%28.2%High +3.9 pts0.604Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2123019.0%30.7%33.3%33.1%47.6%36.1%16.9%32.9%31.3%27.4%High +11.5 pts0.428Not enough data
1m2fGoodAll field sizes5560729.1%29.8%40.0%34.1%32.7%36.1%24.6%26.7%29.8%27.2%Middle +5.9 pts0.688Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4342725.6%28.7%27.9%34.2%46.5%37.1%29.8%31.0%29.7%30.2%High +9.4 pts0.431Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners9083624.4%29.0%34.4%34.2%42.2%36.8%27.2%33.7%35.1%32.3%High +5.4 pts0.507Weak or none
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners4138624.4%29.2%43.9%34.3%34.1%36.5%25.7%31.8%36.9%31.9%Middle +9.6 pts0.473Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3734127.0%28.3%24.3%34.5%48.6%37.2%30.9%34.2%32.3%32.6%High +11.4 pts0.296Not enough data
1m3fAll goingAll field sizes2527140.0%29.9%40.0%33.8%20.0%36.2%30.5%29.7%23.5%27.7%Low +10.1 pts0.229Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes5250230.8%29.4%40.4%34.3%28.8%36.2%37.6%26.9%29.7%31.1%Middle +6.1 pts0.503Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes2322630.4%29.9%43.5%33.4%26.1%36.6%42.6%24.0%26.5%30.5%Middle +10.1 pts0.499Not enough data
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners4338827.9%29.0%44.2%34.7%27.9%36.3%37.2%31.3%31.9%33.2%Middle +9.5 pts0.373Weak or none
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes5252934.6%28.9%38.5%34.3%26.9%36.8%31.2%32.2%25.6%29.5%Low +5.7 pts0.325Weak or none
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2221650.0%28.5%40.9%34.9%9.1%36.6%37.1%36.0%20.3%30.6%Low +21.5 pts0.015Not enough data
1m6fAll going8 to 11 runners3935841.0%28.4%35.9%34.8%23.1%36.8%36.3%34.7%28.0%32.7%Low +12.6 pts0.121Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes3839334.2%29.3%42.1%34.8%23.7%35.9%28.4%30.9%27.7%29.0%Middle +7.3 pts0.292Not enough data
2mAll going8 to 11 runners2825742.9%28.7%35.7%35.5%21.4%35.8%33.8%34.1%30.4%32.7%Low +14.2 pts0.168Not enough data

Flat races at Goodwood with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 30 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Goodwood draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances86435.6%36.6%28.1%29.8%34.0%36.2%Strong25137.1%37.8%25.9%StrongHolding
5f9337.6%39.8%22.6%29.9%33.6%36.5%Moderate3246.9%46.9%6.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f16431.7%40.2%28.0%30.1%33.8%36.1%Weak or none4438.6%36.4%25.0%Weak or noneWeaker lately
7f16845.8%31.5%23.8%30.0%34.0%36.0%Strong4250.0%35.7%19.0%ModerateStronger lately
1m10335.9%36.9%27.2%29.8%34.3%35.9%Weak or none3735.1%32.4%32.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f4740.4%27.7%31.9%30.0%33.8%36.3%Weak or none933.3%22.2%44.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f11926.1%34.5%40.3%29.6%34.0%36.4%Weak or none4124.4%36.6%39.0%Weak or noneHolding
1m3f2540.0%40.0%20.0%29.9%33.8%36.2%Not enough data333.3%33.3%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f5230.8%40.4%28.8%29.4%34.3%36.2%Weak or none1323.1%53.8%23.1%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f5234.6%38.5%26.9%28.9%34.3%36.8%Weak or none1833.3%38.9%27.8%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m3834.2%42.1%23.7%29.3%34.8%35.9%Not enough data1136.4%45.5%18.2%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Goodwood stall by stall at each distance

5f18678.1%9.5%23.3%28.6%-5.3
5f2841315.5%9.5%34.5%28.5%+6.0
5f3821518.3%9.6%37.8%28.7%+9.1
5f48755.7%9.6%34.5%28.7%+5.8
5f58955.6%9.5%22.5%28.5%-6.1
5f6871213.8%9.5%37.9%28.4%+9.5
5f7911011.0%9.5%29.7%28.6%+1.1
5f88689.3%9.6%25.6%28.8%-3.2
5f97268.3%9.1%27.8%27.4%+0.4
5f106834.4%8.7%14.7%26.2%-11.5
5f115036.0%8.3%26.0%24.8%+1.2
6f11471510.2%9.3%25.9%27.8%-2.0
6f2149149.4%9.2%25.5%27.7%-2.2
6f31562012.8%9.4%34.0%28.1%+5.9
6f41511912.6%9.2%29.8%27.7%+2.1
6f51511811.9%9.3%29.1%28.0%+1.1
6f6154138.4%9.3%26.6%27.8%-1.2
6f7149106.7%9.3%28.2%27.9%+0.2
6f8149138.7%9.4%30.2%28.2%+2.0
6f913464.5%8.9%26.9%26.8%+0.1
6f1011765.1%8.6%24.8%25.7%-1.0
6f118622.3%7.5%15.1%22.5%-7.4
6f12761114.5%7.3%26.3%21.8%+4.5
6f135123.9%6.3%15.7%18.9%-3.2
7f11581610.1%9.1%30.4%27.4%+3.0
7f21582415.2%9.1%36.7%27.3%+9.4
7f31551610.3%9.2%26.5%27.5%-1.0
7f41513019.9%9.2%40.4%27.6%+12.8
7f5155149.0%9.1%29.0%27.3%+1.7
7f6157138.3%9.2%35.0%27.5%+7.6
7f7153149.2%9.1%25.5%27.4%-1.9
7f8155106.5%9.1%25.2%27.3%-2.1
7f914696.2%8.9%19.2%26.7%-7.5
7f10119119.2%8.4%24.4%25.1%-0.7
7f1110243.9%7.9%15.7%23.8%-8.1
7f128222.4%7.6%15.9%22.7%-6.8
7f136723.0%7.3%14.9%21.8%-6.8
7f145735.3%7.1%21.1%21.4%-0.3
1m11011413.9%9.7%29.7%29.1%+0.6
1m29899.2%9.6%34.7%28.9%+5.8
1m3971515.5%9.7%32.0%29.0%+3.0
1m49799.3%9.7%34.0%29.2%+4.8
1m5961515.6%9.8%31.3%29.4%+1.8
1m69266.5%9.8%27.2%29.3%-2.1
1m79877.1%9.7%26.5%29.0%-2.4
1m89577.4%9.7%31.6%29.0%+2.6
1m98356.0%9.3%16.9%27.9%-11.1
1m106046.7%8.5%18.3%25.5%-7.2
1m115123.9%8.0%21.6%23.9%-2.4
1m2f11101210.9%9.9%30.0%29.8%+0.2
1m2f210987.3%9.9%23.9%29.8%-6.0
1m2f311276.3%10.0%28.6%29.9%-1.4
1m2f41091412.8%9.9%29.4%29.8%-0.4
1m2f511098.2%10.0%34.5%29.9%+4.6
1m2f61161412.1%9.9%26.7%29.7%-3.0
1m2f71121210.7%9.9%32.1%29.6%+2.5
1m2f8110109.1%9.9%26.4%29.8%-3.4
1m2f9931010.8%9.4%26.9%28.1%-1.3
1m2f107568.0%9.0%29.3%26.9%+2.4
1m2f1156712.5%8.3%33.9%24.9%+9.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Goodwood draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances60033.5%29.7%36.8%34.0%30.0%36.3%27.9%29.0%24.7%
5f6743.3%29.7%35.8%33.8%20.9%36.5%30.2%30.1%21.9%
6f11228.6%29.8%39.3%33.9%32.1%36.3%21.4%27.7%25.1%
7f11142.3%30.0%31.5%34.0%27.9%36.0%31.6%26.8%20.9%
1m7631.6%30.0%38.2%34.3%30.3%35.7%26.6%29.0%24.8%
1m1f3043.3%29.7%30.0%34.3%26.7%36.0%30.7%26.1%24.0%
1m2f8924.7%29.5%32.6%33.9%42.7%36.6%25.5%29.9%30.0%
1m4f3622.2%29.5%47.2%34.1%30.6%36.4%34.3%30.2%30.4%
1m6f3537.1%28.9%42.9%34.1%20.0%36.9%37.6%31.6%23.4%
2m2729.6%28.8%44.4%35.0%25.9%36.2%26.3%34.7%27.3%

Flat races at Goodwood with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Goodwood draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low60033.5%29.7%10.1%2,00020127.9%
Middle60036.8%34.0%9.8%2,24822129.0%
High60030.0%36.3%7.5%2,40018024.7%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Goodwood draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances99430.3%29.0%34.8%33.3%35.1%37.7%
5f11436.8%28.8%34.2%33.1%28.9%38.1%
6f17627.8%29.3%40.9%33.3%31.3%37.4%
7f14341.3%29.4%31.5%33.8%28.7%36.7%
1m14928.9%29.0%32.2%33.1%38.9%37.9%
1m1f4436.4%29.4%34.1%33.4%29.5%37.2%
1m2f13224.2%29.0%31.1%33.4%44.7%37.6%
1m3f3119.4%30.4%35.5%32.4%45.2%37.2%
1m4f8922.5%28.0%39.3%33.2%38.2%38.8%
1m6f6432.8%28.8%34.4%32.9%32.8%38.2%
2m5125.5%28.2%35.3%33.8%39.2%38.0%

Every Flat race at Goodwood with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Goodwood draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances39425.4%27.9%31.7%32.2%42.9%39.8%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances41031.0%28.8%39.5%34.5%29.8%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances13438.1%31.7%34.3%32.8%28.4%35.5%
16 or more runnersAll distances5641.1%31.7%23.2%33.3%35.7%35.0%
3 to 7 runners5f4727.7%27.5%31.9%32.1%40.4%40.4%
8 to 11 runners5f4643.5%28.6%37.0%34.5%19.6%36.9%
3 to 7 runners6f6426.6%28.5%43.8%32.2%29.7%39.3%
8 to 11 runners6f7428.4%28.8%47.3%34.4%24.3%36.8%
12 to 15 runners6f2133.3%31.4%19.0%32.8%47.6%35.7%
3 to 7 runners7f3237.5%27.6%31.3%33.2%31.3%39.2%
8 to 11 runners7f6532.3%29.0%32.3%34.6%36.9%36.3%
12 to 15 runners7f3357.6%31.3%30.3%32.8%15.2%35.9%
3 to 7 runners1m7326.0%27.9%26.0%32.0%47.9%40.1%
8 to 11 runners1m4820.8%28.8%47.9%34.8%31.3%36.4%
3 to 7 runners1m2f4323.3%27.8%27.9%32.5%48.8%39.7%
8 to 11 runners1m2f7122.5%29.0%32.4%34.1%45.1%36.9%
3 to 7 runners1m4f5322.6%27.0%34.0%32.6%43.4%40.4%
8 to 11 runners1m4f3122.6%29.1%51.6%34.5%25.8%36.4%
3 to 7 runners1m6f2927.6%28.7%24.1%31.5%48.3%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m6f2846.4%28.5%39.3%34.7%14.3%36.8%
3 to 7 runners2m2420.8%27.5%25.0%32.5%54.2%40.0%
8 to 11 runners2m2133.3%27.9%38.1%35.8%28.6%36.3%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Goodwood draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances14237.3%30.3%30.3%36.0%33.1%
GoodAll distances22229.7%29.7%27.5%36.4%43.2%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances9734.0%29.8%32.0%36.2%34.0%
SoftAll distances10432.7%29.0%32.7%36.6%34.6%
HeavyAll distances3542.9%29.7%31.4%35.8%25.7%
Good5f3036.7%29.3%23.3%37.0%40.0%
Good to firm or firmer6f2615.4%30.0%30.8%36.1%53.8%
Good6f3839.5%30.3%26.3%36.0%34.2%
Good to soft or yielding6f2236.4%29.1%36.4%37.5%27.3%
Good to firm or firmer7f3354.5%30.7%30.3%35.6%18.2%
Good7f4035.0%30.1%30.0%36.1%37.5%
Good1m2321.7%29.5%21.7%35.9%56.5%
Good1m2f4022.5%29.8%35.0%36.1%42.5%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Goodwood individual stalls, most-run distances

6f110287.8%9.3%23.5%
6f210598.6%9.3%23.8%
6f31081614.8%9.4%29.6%
6f41051413.3%9.3%32.4%
6f51041211.5%9.4%30.8%
6f610687.5%9.3%30.2%
6f710254.9%9.4%25.5%
6f8104109.6%9.3%31.7%
7f1105109.5%9.2%31.4%
7f21071211.2%9.2%34.6%
7f3101109.9%9.2%24.8%
7f41022221.6%9.2%39.2%
7f510298.8%9.1%30.4%
7f610498.7%9.2%34.6%
7f710498.7%9.1%20.2%
7f810287.8%9.1%28.4%

The two most-run distances at Goodwood in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Goodwood 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 45.8%Since 2016 Middle: 31.5%Since 2016 High: 23.8%Since 2024 Low: 50%Since 2024 Middle: 35.7%Since 2024 High: 19%Expected by chance Low: 30%Expected by chance Middle: 34%Expected by chance High: 36%

Win % of races by Draw third

Goodwood 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Win % Stall 1: 7.8%7.8%Win % Stall 2: 8.6%8.6%Win % Stall 3: 14.8%14.8%Win % Stall 4: 13.3%13.3%Win % Stall 5: 11.5%11.5%Win % Stall 6: 7.5%7.5%Win % Stall 7: 4.9%4.9%Win % Stall 8: 9.6%9.6%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.4%9.4%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.4%9.4%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.4%9.4%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.3%9.3%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Goodwood and their draw

11 Oct 26Spirit Of Athene (GB) silksSpirit Of Athene (GB)2Low111m2f4.33
11 Oct 26Naval Light (GB) silksNaval Light (GB)1Low131m4.00
11 Oct 26Royal Acclamation (GB) silksRoyal Acclamation (GB)5High51m1f1.73
11 Oct 26Deep Havana (GB) silksDeep Havana (GB)3Low136f3.50
11 Oct 26Lots Road (IRE) silksLots Road (IRE)7High81m1f8.50
11 Oct 26Brynmair Gold (GB) silksBrynmair Gold (GB)5Middle86f1.83
11 Oct 26Division Day (GB) silksDivision Day (GB)6Middle122m23.00
23 Sep 26Percy's Star (GB) silksPercy's Star (GB)1Low156f9.00
23 Sep 26Paggane (GB) silksPaggane (GB)5Middle81m6f12.00
23 Sep 26Poppy Foxy (IRE) silksPoppy Foxy (IRE)4Low147f26.00
23 Sep 26Respond (IRE) silksRespond (IRE)2Middle51m2f2.50
23 Sep 26Tribal Chief (FR) silksTribal Chief (FR)8High71m3.75
23 Sep 26Plaid (GB) silksPlaid (GB)1Low41m2f2.20
23 Sep 26Please Don't Go (IRE) silksPlease Don't Go (IRE)7High81m2f4.00
8 Sep 26Old Is Gold (IRE) silksOld Is Gold (IRE)8High76f2.50
8 Sep 26Blue Wonder (IRE) silksBlue Wonder (IRE)9High101m2f2.88
8 Sep 26Manxman (IRE) silksManxman (IRE)5High42m1.73
8 Sep 26Wreck It Ronnie (FR) silksWreck It Ronnie (FR)3High31m2f11.00
8 Sep 26Kiss And Run (GB) silksKiss And Run (GB)5High65f4.00
8 Sep 26Spirit Tango (IRE) silksSpirit Tango (IRE)4High47f1.53

The 20 most recent Flat races at Goodwood in the data with a full draw.

Goodwood win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m1f1m2f1m4f1m6f2mLow third 5f: 43.3%Low third 6f: 28.6%Low third 7f: 42.3%Low third 1m: 31.6%Low third 1m1f: 43.3%Low third 1m2f: 24.7%Low third 1m4f: 22.2%Low third 1m6f: 37.1%Low third 2m: 29.6%Middle third 5f: 35.8%Middle third 6f: 39.3%Middle third 7f: 31.5%Middle third 1m: 38.2%Middle third 1m1f: 30%Middle third 1m2f: 32.6%Middle third 1m4f: 47.2%Middle third 1m6f: 42.9%Middle third 2m: 44.4%High third 5f: 20.9%High third 6f: 32.1%High third 7f: 27.9%High third 1m: 30.3%High third 1m1f: 26.7%High third 1m2f: 42.7%High third 1m4f: 30.6%High third 1m6f: 20%High third 2m: 25.9%

Win % of races by Distance

Goodwood win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 28%Low third 2020: 36.8%Low third 2021: 26.4%Low third 2022: 28%Low third 2023: 38.1%Low third 2024: 34.2%Low third 2025: 31.8%Low third 2026: 44.8%44.8%Middle third 2019: 41.3%Middle third 2020: 36.8%Middle third 2021: 34.7%Middle third 2022: 34.1%Middle third 2023: 33.3%Middle third 2024: 36.8%Middle third 2025: 40.9%Middle third 2026: 35.6%35.6%High third 2019: 30.7%High third 2020: 26.3%High third 2021: 38.9%High third 2022: 37.8%High third 2023: 28.6%High third 2024: 30.3%High third 2025: 28.4%High third 2026: 19.5%19.5%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Goodwood?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Goodwood, the draw rates strong from 168 races. It stands out most over 7f, where the low third has won 45.8% against 30% by chance (rated strong).

Is a low draw essential over Goodwood's 7f and mile?

Goodwood's 7f and mile races turn into the straight off a tight bend, and both have rows in the distance table below. The low third's record against chance at those trips is the figure to check first.

How do going and field size change the draw at Goodwood?

The bias matrix gives every Goodwood trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Goodwood draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads stronger lately, from 42 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Goodwood?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Goodwood, the draw rates strong, with low draws winning 45.8% of 168 races against 30% by chance. It stands out most over 7f, where the low third has won 45.8% against 30% (rated strong).

Which stall is best at Goodwood over 5f?

Stall 6 has the best top-three record over 5f at Goodwood since 2016, placing in 37.9% of 87 runs against 27.1% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Goodwood?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 35.6% of Goodwood races against 29.8% by chance, and high draws 28.1% against 36.2%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Which side has done best in the Stewards' Cup?

The Stewards' Cup is a big-field 6f handicap on the straight course, so the 6f row and the 16 or more runners band are the closest guides. The page measures thirds by stall number and does not track single races.

How often are the Goodwood draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseGoodwood course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseGoodwood racecardsThe next meeting's full cardGlorious GoodwoodFestival results and recordsStewards Cup roll of honourPast winners of the race

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