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Favourites tracker: this season against the ten-year line

How often favourites are winning this season, month by month and week by week, against the last ten years. Yesterday's favourites are added every morning, with each result listed.

15 of 43 favourites won on 15 October · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
33.7%
NH favourites Win %
35.5%
NH ten-year Win %
33.3%
Flat favourites Win %
32%
Flat ten-year Win %

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Key takeaways

  • On 15 October 2026, 15 of the 43 favourites won, and each of those races is listed with course, horse, trainer, SP and result.
  • Over ten years, £1 level stakes on every favourite at SP produced an ROI of -7.7% over jumps and -8.3% on the Flat.
  • The ten-year favourite line rests on 55,010 NH and 82,160 Flat favourites, so each monthly comparison has a large sample behind it.
NH favourite Win % by month
2026/27 seasonTen-year average
30%32.5%35%37.5%40%MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarApr2026/27 season May: 34.8%2026/27 season Jun: 32.2%2026/27 season Jul: 32.1%2026/27 season Aug: 32.5%2026/27 season Sep: 32.5%2026/27 season Oct: 37.5%37.5%Ten-year average May: 34.2%Ten-year average Jun: 33.6%Ten-year average Jul: 34.5%Ten-year average Aug: 34.3%Ten-year average Sep: 33.8%Ten-year average Oct: 36.3%Ten-year average Nov: 37.8%Ten-year average Dec: 34.5%Ten-year average Jan: 37.1%Ten-year average Feb: 37.4%Ten-year average Mar: 35.2%Ten-year average Apr: 34%34%

Win % by Month

NH favourites by month: 2026/27 season v ten-year average

May34.8%34.2%+0.64771664,811
June32.2%33.6%-1.4261842,998
July32.1%34.5%-2.4277893,193
August32.5%34.3%-1.8252822,861
September32.5%33.8%-1.3255832,854
October37.5%36.3%+1.3253955,141
November-37.8%-006,561
December-34.5%-006,158
January-37.1%-004,808
February-37.4%-004,924
March-35.2%-005,861
April-34.0%-004,840

Favourite = shortest SP in the race (joint favourites all count). Ten-year = 2016/17 to 2025/26. Months with no racing yet this season show blanks. Source: RaceWatch results database, GB and IRE.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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NH favourites by race type, going, field size, class and country

Race typeHurdle31.8%36.3%1,09130,683
Race typeChase36.1%33.6%54319,519
Race typeNH Flat38.6%37.6%1014,231
Race typeFlat42.5%35.9%40577
GoingGood33.2%35.3%1,32320,648
GoingGood to Soft / Yielding34.9%34.7%25513,417
GoingSoft29.7%35.5%6412,806
GoingHeavy-36.6%06,696
GoingGood to Firm / Firm39.1%38.5%1331,242
GoingStandard to Slow-32.7%0156
Field size6 to 8 runners35.8%36.8%55117,707
Field size9 to 12 runners32.2%32.1%48717,196
Field size2 to 5 runners43.1%48.4%3468,858
Field size13 to 16 runners24.6%28.8%3258,445
Field size17+ runners24.2%27.0%662,804
ClassClass 438.9%39.0%45016,860
ClassUnclassified (mostly IRE)32.5%34.3%73515,777
ClassClass 530.3%32.5%41210,264
ClassClass 340.4%35.9%1046,765
ClassClass 220.9%30.2%432,615
ClassClass 1-33.3%272,162
ClassClass 6-39.9%4567
CountryGB34.7%35.9%1,01839,186
CountryIRE32.5%34.3%75715,824

This season figures shown where the category has 30+ favourites; ten-year rows need 100+. Going grouped (Good to Soft includes Yielding). Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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NH favourites week by week, 2026/27 season

12 Oct 2639.1%6927
5 Oct 2633.3%11438
28 Sep 2638.8%9838
21 Sep 2630.4%6921
14 Sep 2632.8%6120
7 Sep 2632.1%5317
31 Aug 2632.8%5819
24 Aug 2639.1%6425
17 Aug 2636.5%6323
10 Aug 2631.3%4815
3 Aug 2630.8%5216
27 Jul 2629.6%278
20 Jul 2631.3%6420
13 Jul 2636.8%7628
6 Jul 2624.2%6616
29 Jun 2627.6%7621
22 Jun 2640.0%3514
15 Jun 2638.9%3614
8 Jun 2631.4%8627
1 Jun 2631.3%8326
25 May 2636.0%12545
18 May 2632.9%8528
11 May 2638.8%11645
4 May 2630.2%12638
27 Apr 2640.0%2510

Latest week first. Week runs Monday to Sunday. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Flat favourite Win % by month
2026 seasonTen-year average
27.5%30%32.5%35%37.5%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2026 season Jan: 33.3%2026 season Feb: 35%2026 season Mar: 32.2%2026 season Apr: 32.7%2026 season May: 33.5%2026 season Jun: 32.9%2026 season Jul: 34.7%2026 season Aug: 32.6%2026 season Sep: 32.3%2026 season Oct: 35.7%35.7%Ten-year average Jan: 32.2%Ten-year average Feb: 35.1%Ten-year average Mar: 33.3%Ten-year average Apr: 30.7%Ten-year average May: 32.3%Ten-year average Jun: 32.3%Ten-year average Jul: 33.4%Ten-year average Aug: 32%Ten-year average Sep: 31.2%Ten-year average Oct: 29.7%Ten-year average Nov: 32%Ten-year average Dec: 30.6%30.6%

Win % by Month

Flat favourites by month: 2026 season v ten-year average

January33.3%32.2%+1.14531514,126
February35.0%35.1%0.03511233,318
March32.2%33.3%-1.14251373,608
April32.7%30.7%+2.06942276,040
May33.5%32.3%+1.29383148,475
June32.9%32.3%+0.61,00433010,377
July34.7%33.4%+1.31,07537310,708
August32.6%32.0%+0.61,00632810,793
September32.3%31.2%+1.19973229,488
October35.7%29.7%+6.04431587,713
November-32.0%-004,065
December-30.6%-003,449

Favourite = shortest SP in the race (joint favourites all count). Ten-year = 2016 to 2025. Months with no racing yet this season show blanks. Source: RaceWatch results database, GB and IRE.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Flat favourites by race type, going, field size, class and country

Race typeFlat33.3%32.0%7,38682,160
GoingStandard33.6%32.1%2,12825,012
GoingGood32.8%31.1%1,91516,330
GoingGood to Firm / Firm34.8%33.6%1,67815,416
GoingGood to Soft / Yielding30.5%30.9%5978,567
GoingSoft32.5%30.9%6407,634
GoingStandard to Slow37.0%33.7%2896,465
GoingHeavy26.6%28.6%1392,735
Field size9 to 12 runners30.0%29.7%2,93233,520
Field size6 to 8 runners36.0%35.6%2,46525,598
Field size13 to 16 runners26.4%24.8%88812,985
Field size2 to 5 runners48.2%46.0%8277,571
Field size17+ runners22.3%18.9%2742,486
ClassClass 530.2%35.7%1,43622,569
ClassClass 631.2%29.0%1,76018,134
ClassUnclassified (mostly IRE)31.1%29.7%1,17514,169
ClassClass 436.8%33.2%1,57413,924
ClassClass 339.0%30.6%6105,298
ClassClass 233.2%28.6%4314,836
ClassClass 138.5%35.1%4003,026
ClassClass 7-27.5%0204
CountryGB33.6%32.5%6,09167,988
CountryIRE32.3%29.7%1,29514,172

This season figures shown where the category has 30+ favourites; ten-year rows need 100+. Going grouped (Good to Soft includes Yielding). Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Flat favourites week by week, 2026 season

12 Oct 2636.0%11140
5 Oct 2635.8%22681
28 Sep 2633.3%20468
21 Sep 2632.5%23476
14 Sep 2628.3%22664
7 Sep 2633.2%22675
31 Aug 2632.7%25784
24 Aug 2632.8%20467
17 Aug 2628.7%23066
10 Aug 2635.4%22981
3 Aug 2633.5%23679
27 Jul 2638.7%25398
20 Jul 2633.3%21973
13 Jul 2638.1%24794
6 Jul 2630.3%23872
29 Jun 2634.4%24785
22 Jun 2632.6%21871
15 Jun 2630.9%25980
8 Jun 2635.7%23082
1 Jun 2632.5%23175
25 May 2631.9%21067
18 May 2633.6%23278
11 May 2634.7%19969
4 May 2633.2%19364
27 Apr 2634.5%23280
20 Apr 2636.0%18667
13 Apr 2634.3%13747
6 Apr 2626.7%16143
30 Mar 2630.6%11134
23 Mar 2634.5%11941
16 Mar 2628.2%8524
9 Mar 2629.9%10732
2 Mar 2637.6%8532
23 Feb 2635.2%9132
16 Feb 2640.6%6426
9 Feb 2636.2%10538
2 Feb 2629.7%9127
26 Jan 2630.6%9830
19 Jan 2634.6%10436
12 Jan 2633.0%10635
5 Jan 2633.3%8428
29 Dec 2536.1%6122

Latest week first. Week runs Monday to Sunday. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Favourites on Thursday 15 October

43 runners today match this. See them in the app.

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Favourites flagged on today's cards

Members see each favourite on today's racecards with its RWS score and market moves across 20+ bookmakers, so a drifting or shortening favourite shows before the off.

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How often do favourites win this season?

The month table sets this season's favourite runs, wins, Win %

Are favourites winning more than usual this week?

The weekly table tracks every week of the season with runs, wins, Win %

Do favourites win more over hurdles or fences?

The splits table breaks favourites down by race type, going, field size, class and GB against Ireland, each with this season's figures next to the ten-year line.

Which favourites won yesterday?

The latest day table lists every favourite from the most recent racing day with course, race, trainer, SP and finishing position, and is replaced each morning.

Questions people ask

What percentage of favourites win in horse racing?

Over the last ten years favourites have won 35.5% of NH races and 32% of Flat races on RaceWatch data. This season's figures are tracked against those lines every day.

Do favourites make a profit to level stakes?

Across ten years favourites have returned a loss at SP in both codes, because prices carry the bookmaker margin. The tables show where this season's favourites sit against that long-term line.

Which favourite counts when there are joint favourites?

Every horse sharing the shortest SP is counted as a favourite, so a race with joint favourites adds more than one run. Win % therefore reflects favourite runs rather than races.

When is the Favourites tracker updated?

The tracker updates every morning after the previous day's results are settled. The monthly, weekly and splits tables all move together, and the latest day table is replaced.

More free data

Favourite win rateLong-run favourite record by codeFavourites by goingHow the ground changes favourite resultsFavourites by field sizeSmall fields against big fieldsThis month in numbersThe current month against the last fiveRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

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Updated