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Ayr draw bias: the straight six furlongs and the round course

At Ayr over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 30.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (220 races), middle draws 30.9% and high draws 38.6%, against 29.6%, 33.8% and 36.7% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Ayr declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 8 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
945
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 38.6% v 36.7%

At Ayr over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 30.5% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (220 races), middle draws 30.9% and high draws 38.6%, against 29.6%, 33.8% and 36.7% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 5f, where the middle third has won 48.2% of 85 races against 34.1% by chance (moderate).Sample: 220 races · Window: 25 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Ayr draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes94510,28730.3%29.6%35.0%34.0%34.8%36.3%28.7%27.8%26.4%27.6%Middle +1.0 pts0.600Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes8595131.8%29.4%48.2%34.1%20.0%36.5%26.1%35.4%19.7%26.8%Middle +14.1 pts0.003Moderate
5fGoodAll field sizes3437826.5%29.8%47.1%33.5%26.5%36.7%18.4%38.9%23.2%27.0%Middle +13.6 pts0.228Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3238234.4%29.3%53.1%34.5%12.5%36.2%27.2%32.8%16.8%25.1%Middle +18.6 pts0.015Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners5752531.6%28.2%49.1%34.5%19.3%37.3%30.9%42.2%25.0%32.6%Middle +14.6 pts0.013Moderate
5fGood8 to 11 runners2119428.6%28.7%52.4%33.7%19.0%37.6%21.4%49.2%26.0%32.5%Middle +18.7 pts0.130Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2119533.3%28.1%52.4%35.0%14.3%36.9%32.7%39.7%25.0%32.3%Middle +17.4 pts0.085Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes2142,61031.3%29.8%36.0%34.2%33.2%36.1%30.0%23.4%21.1%24.6%Middle +1.8 pts0.647Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4145624.4%30.3%36.6%33.5%39.0%36.2%26.4%26.5%27.9%27.0%Middle +3.1 pts0.713Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes8092031.3%29.5%38.8%34.6%30.0%35.9%32.7%24.8%21.7%26.1%Middle +4.2 pts0.530Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes931,23434.4%29.8%33.3%34.1%33.3%36.1%29.3%21.3%18.1%22.6%Low +4.6 pts0.644Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1371,25124.8%28.5%40.9%34.8%34.3%36.7%37.2%32.1%30.2%32.9%Middle +6.1 pts0.311Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners3951143.6%32.1%20.5%33.0%35.9%34.8%34.1%17.8%17.4%22.9%Low +11.5 pts0.177Not enough data
6fAll going16 or more runners3884842.1%32.0%34.2%33.1%26.3%34.9%18.0%13.5%9.2%13.4%Low +10.1 pts0.362Not enough data
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3027313.3%29.5%43.3%33.9%43.3%36.6%24.7%38.0%35.0%33.0%Middle +9.4 pts0.147Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners5852632.8%28.4%41.4%35.1%25.9%36.5%44.7%28.3%28.6%33.1%Middle +6.3 pts0.242Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4945222.4%27.9%38.8%34.9%38.8%37.1%36.2%33.1%29.2%32.5%Middle +3.9 pts0.679Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2228650.0%31.9%18.2%33.2%31.8%34.9%38.5%13.7%18.0%23.1%Low +18.1 pts0.148Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2249645.5%31.8%36.4%33.3%22.7%34.9%18.4%14.5%7.5%13.3%Low +13.7 pts0.318Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes2202,29030.5%29.6%30.9%33.8%38.6%36.7%28.0%28.6%29.6%28.8%High +1.9 pts0.663Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3637022.2%29.5%38.9%33.8%38.9%36.7%29.1%33.1%25.7%29.2%Middle +5.1 pts0.616Not enough data
7fGoodAll field sizes8687431.4%29.3%27.9%34.0%40.7%36.7%29.1%27.1%32.1%29.5%High +4.0 pts0.490Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes981,04632.7%29.8%30.6%33.6%36.7%36.6%26.8%28.3%29.0%28.1%Low +2.9 pts0.772Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners1571,48127.4%28.9%30.6%34.3%42.0%36.8%29.6%32.4%33.0%31.8%High +5.2 pts0.384Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners6380938.1%31.2%31.7%32.5%30.2%36.3%25.4%21.3%23.5%23.4%Low +6.9 pts0.448Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2624423.1%28.6%38.5%34.5%38.5%36.9%30.0%34.5%31.1%32.0%Middle +4.0 pts0.814Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners6560426.2%28.7%30.8%34.4%43.1%36.9%31.6%31.4%33.6%32.3%High +6.2 pts0.584Weak or none
7fGood12 to 15 runners2127047.6%31.2%19.0%32.6%33.3%36.2%23.8%17.0%28.6%23.3%Low +16.4 pts0.219Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners6663330.3%29.2%27.3%34.0%42.4%36.8%27.6%32.6%33.0%31.3%High +5.6 pts0.475Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3241337.5%31.1%37.5%32.7%25.0%36.3%25.8%21.5%22.7%23.2%Low +6.4 pts0.412Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1811,90128.7%29.6%32.0%33.9%39.2%36.4%27.2%28.0%30.3%28.6%High +2.8 pts0.730Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3837931.6%29.0%39.5%34.3%28.9%36.7%29.7%31.0%30.2%30.1%Middle +5.2 pts0.606Not enough data
1mGoodAll field sizes6264527.4%29.7%24.2%34.0%48.4%36.3%25.0%26.5%34.2%28.8%High +12.1 pts0.114Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes8187728.4%29.9%34.6%33.7%37.0%36.4%27.8%27.8%27.6%27.7%Middle +0.9 pts0.955Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners1261,18927.0%29.0%33.3%34.2%39.7%36.8%29.2%32.1%33.6%31.8%High +2.9 pts0.780Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners5571232.7%31.0%29.1%33.4%38.2%35.6%24.1%21.0%24.8%23.2%High +2.6 pts0.796Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2926327.6%28.4%41.4%34.8%31.0%36.9%30.7%36.3%32.0%33.1%Middle +6.6 pts0.728Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners4542424.4%29.2%28.9%34.1%46.7%36.7%26.6%31.9%35.9%31.8%High +10.0 pts0.385Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5250228.8%29.3%32.7%33.9%38.5%36.8%30.6%30.0%32.4%31.1%High +1.7 pts0.968Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2937527.6%31.1%37.9%33.3%34.5%35.7%24.1%24.8%20.9%23.2%Middle +4.6 pts0.855Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1511,52928.5%29.7%34.4%34.2%37.1%36.1%31.3%28.0%29.8%29.6%High +1.0 pts0.941Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3128625.8%28.8%38.7%34.5%35.5%36.7%34.9%32.7%30.5%32.5%Middle +4.2 pts0.873Not enough data
1m2fGoodAll field sizes6062831.7%29.8%30.0%34.1%38.3%36.1%29.3%26.2%30.5%28.7%High +2.2 pts0.795Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6061526.7%30.1%36.7%34.1%36.7%35.8%31.7%27.8%28.6%29.3%Middle +2.6 pts0.834Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners1131,04729.2%29.0%33.6%34.4%37.2%36.5%34.8%30.4%32.4%32.4%High +0.7 pts0.983Weak or none
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners3848226.3%31.7%36.8%33.6%36.8%34.8%24.3%22.8%23.8%23.7%Middle +3.2 pts0.773Not enough data
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2926024.1%28.7%37.9%34.5%37.9%36.9%34.7%33.7%32.3%33.5%Middle +3.4 pts0.853Not enough data
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners4138636.6%29.0%26.8%34.3%36.6%36.7%33.0%26.5%35.9%31.9%Low +7.6 pts0.474Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4340125.6%29.4%37.2%34.5%37.2%36.1%36.4%31.9%29.0%32.2%Middle +2.7 pts0.853Weak or none
1m5fAll goingAll field sizes5660630.4%29.4%42.9%34.0%26.8%36.6%26.1%30.2%26.7%27.7%Middle +8.9 pts0.252Weak or none
1m5fGoodAll field sizes2123723.8%29.5%38.1%34.0%38.1%36.5%25.4%26.3%27.9%26.6%Middle +4.1 pts0.838Not enough data
1m5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2628530.8%29.7%50.0%33.8%19.2%36.5%28.2%33.3%21.2%27.4%Middle +16.2 pts0.125Not enough data
1m5fAll going8 to 11 runners3633222.2%28.5%47.2%34.5%30.6%37.0%28.4%37.7%30.9%32.5%Middle +12.7 pts0.274Not enough data

Flat races at Ayr with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 25 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Ayr draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances94530.3%35.0%34.8%29.6%34.0%36.3%Weak or none25127.5%35.9%36.7%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f8531.8%48.2%20.0%29.4%34.1%36.5%Moderate2123.8%66.7%9.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f21431.3%36.0%33.2%29.8%34.2%36.1%Weak or none5733.3%29.8%36.8%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
7f22030.5%30.9%38.6%29.6%33.8%36.7%Weak or none5728.1%35.1%36.8%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m18128.7%32.0%39.2%29.6%33.9%36.4%Weak or none4825.0%37.5%37.5%Weak or noneHolding
1m2f15128.5%34.4%37.1%29.7%34.2%36.1%Weak or none4621.7%30.4%47.8%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m5f5630.4%42.9%26.8%29.4%34.0%36.6%Weak or none1540.0%26.7%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ayr stall by stall at each distance

5f17967.6%9.6%22.8%28.7%-5.9
5f2801417.5%9.5%40.0%28.6%+11.4
5f38156.2%9.6%28.4%28.7%-0.3
5f4791113.9%9.7%39.2%29.0%+10.2
5f5811417.3%9.6%39.5%28.8%+10.7
5f68078.8%9.6%33.8%28.9%+4.9
5f77756.5%9.6%18.2%28.7%-10.5
5f88367.2%9.6%26.5%28.7%-2.2
5f97145.6%9.1%25.4%27.4%-2.0
5f105911.7%8.6%18.6%25.9%-7.2
6f1203188.9%9.3%28.1%27.8%+0.3
6f2199157.5%9.2%35.7%27.6%+8.1
6f3200178.5%9.3%31.0%27.9%+3.1
6f41972412.2%9.2%29.9%27.7%+2.2
6f52012210.9%9.3%30.3%28.0%+2.4
6f61973015.2%9.3%32.0%27.9%+4.1
6f72062210.7%9.3%34.0%27.9%+6.1
6f8208178.2%9.3%24.0%27.9%-3.9
6f916963.6%8.8%22.5%26.5%-4.0
6f1014196.4%8.2%19.1%24.5%-5.3
6f1111665.2%7.4%12.1%22.3%-10.3
6f12851011.8%6.7%17.6%20.1%-2.4
6f137445.4%6.2%17.6%18.5%-0.9
6f145623.6%5.6%19.6%16.7%+2.9
7f1199157.5%9.8%33.7%29.4%+4.3
7f22052612.7%9.9%28.8%29.7%-0.9
7f3209199.1%9.9%25.4%29.7%-4.4
7f42022411.9%9.9%31.2%29.8%+1.4
7f5199199.5%9.9%27.6%29.6%-2.0
7f62042411.8%9.9%30.4%29.7%+0.7
7f7217146.5%9.9%29.5%29.7%-0.2
7f82052713.2%9.9%31.2%29.7%+1.5
7f9184126.5%9.6%22.3%28.9%-6.6
7f101441711.8%9.1%34.0%27.4%+6.6
7f11116108.6%8.7%25.9%26.0%-0.1
7f129077.8%8.5%36.7%25.4%+11.2
7f136922.9%8.1%13.0%24.2%-11.2
1m1172169.3%9.8%25.6%29.4%-3.8
1m21671911.4%9.8%29.9%29.5%+0.5
1m3171169.4%9.8%25.7%29.3%-3.5
1m41731911.0%9.9%37.6%29.6%+8.0
1m5170148.2%9.8%26.5%29.5%-3.1
1m6167116.6%9.8%24.6%29.3%-4.7
1m7164169.8%9.8%25.0%29.4%-4.4
1m81681710.1%9.8%32.1%29.4%+2.8
1m9150138.7%9.5%32.7%28.6%+4.0
1m101321914.4%9.2%33.3%27.5%+5.8
1m119988.1%8.6%24.2%25.8%-1.5
1m127633.9%8.3%22.4%24.9%-2.6
1m1354713.0%8.0%33.3%24.0%+9.3
1m2f114274.9%10.1%24.6%30.3%-5.7
1m2f21411712.1%10.2%36.2%30.5%+5.7
1m2f3138139.4%10.2%31.2%30.5%+0.7
1m2f4146149.6%10.2%28.8%30.6%-1.8
1m2f5140139.3%10.1%28.6%30.4%-1.9
1m2f61411812.8%10.1%34.0%30.4%+3.7
1m2f7138128.7%10.1%23.2%30.4%-7.2
1m2f81401812.9%10.1%34.3%30.4%+3.9
1m2f91231713.8%9.9%35.0%29.7%+5.2
1m2f109388.6%9.3%29.0%27.9%+1.1
1m2f1178810.3%8.9%24.4%26.8%-2.4
1m2f125323.8%8.4%22.6%25.3%-2.7

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Ayr draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances66829.8%29.7%34.4%34.0%35.8%36.3%28.7%27.7%26.2%
5f5932.2%29.0%50.8%34.4%16.9%36.6%24.6%38.6%19.7%
6f15530.3%29.8%34.2%34.2%35.5%36.0%29.7%21.6%21.2%
7f15328.1%29.5%34.0%33.9%37.9%36.6%28.0%30.8%28.4%
1m13326.3%29.7%28.6%33.8%45.1%36.5%27.5%26.7%31.7%
1m2f10831.5%30.0%33.3%34.0%35.2%36.0%31.5%28.9%28.8%
1m5f4131.7%29.6%41.5%34.0%26.8%36.4%26.5%30.0%26.7%

Flat races at Ayr with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Ayr draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low66829.8%29.7%9.1%2,19719928.7%
Middle66834.4%34.0%9.3%2,46923027.7%
High66835.8%36.3%9.0%2,64523926.2%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Ayr draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances97329.0%29.2%34.6%33.4%36.6%37.4%
5f10730.8%28.9%47.7%33.4%22.4%37.7%
6f21833.0%29.3%31.7%33.7%35.3%37.0%
7f20824.5%28.8%38.0%33.6%37.5%37.6%
1m18225.8%29.5%30.2%33.2%44.0%37.3%
1m2f15430.5%29.6%32.5%33.3%37.7%37.1%
1m5f6530.8%28.9%36.9%33.5%32.3%37.6%

Every Flat race at Ayr with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ayr draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances30527.2%28.1%35.1%32.1%38.4%39.8%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances45326.9%28.8%35.5%34.4%37.5%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances17333.5%31.6%31.2%33.0%35.3%35.4%
16 or more runnersAll distances4245.2%31.9%35.7%33.0%19.0%35.0%
3 to 7 runners5f4829.2%28.8%43.8%32.1%29.2%39.1%
8 to 11 runners5f4030.0%27.6%50.0%34.9%20.0%37.4%
3 to 7 runners6f6339.7%28.2%25.4%32.3%34.9%39.5%
8 to 11 runners6f9223.9%28.3%38.0%35.0%38.0%36.7%
12 to 15 runners6f3135.5%32.1%22.6%33.0%41.9%35.0%
16 or more runners6f3243.8%32.1%34.4%33.1%21.9%34.9%
3 to 7 runners7f5514.5%27.1%49.1%32.6%36.4%40.3%
8 to 11 runners7f11126.1%28.7%34.2%34.4%39.6%36.8%
12 to 15 runners7f4233.3%31.4%33.3%32.6%33.3%36.1%
3 to 7 runners1m4924.5%29.1%34.7%31.5%40.8%39.4%
8 to 11 runners1m9225.0%29.1%30.4%34.1%44.6%36.9%
12 to 15 runners1m4129.3%31.1%24.4%33.2%46.3%35.8%
3 to 7 runners1m2f4628.3%28.7%30.4%31.7%43.5%39.6%
8 to 11 runners1m2f8132.1%29.3%32.1%34.2%35.8%36.5%
12 to 15 runners1m2f2729.6%32.1%37.0%33.4%33.3%34.5%
3 to 7 runners1m5f2429.2%27.7%29.2%32.7%41.7%39.6%
8 to 11 runners1m5f2623.1%28.9%46.2%34.2%30.8%36.9%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ayr draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances13026.2%29.4%36.9%36.6%36.9%
GoodAll distances27832.7%29.7%34.5%36.3%32.7%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances11030.9%30.1%35.5%36.1%33.6%
SoftAll distances10524.8%29.6%36.2%36.3%39.0%
HeavyAll distances4531.1%29.7%40.0%36.2%28.9%
Good5f2729.6%29.4%22.2%36.8%48.1%
Good to firm or firmer6f3023.3%30.2%43.3%36.3%33.3%
Good6f6331.7%29.8%31.7%35.7%36.5%
Good to soft or yielding6f2737.0%30.8%33.3%35.8%29.6%
Soft6f2433.3%28.8%29.2%36.8%37.5%
Good to firm or firmer7f2516.0%29.6%44.0%36.8%40.0%
Good7f6533.8%29.3%32.3%36.6%33.8%
Good to soft or yielding7f2429.2%29.5%50.0%37.1%20.8%
Soft7f2516.0%29.4%40.0%36.0%44.0%
Good to firm or firmer1m3129.0%28.8%35.5%37.1%35.5%
Good1m5026.0%30.0%52.0%36.3%22.0%
Good to soft or yielding1m2528.0%30.1%48.0%36.0%24.0%
Good1m2f4839.6%30.0%33.3%36.1%27.1%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ayr individual stalls, most-run distances

6f1148117.4%9.1%29.7%
6f2146117.5%9.1%37.7%
6f3146128.2%9.2%28.8%
6f41471912.9%9.1%29.9%
6f51501711.3%9.2%28.7%
6f61431611.2%9.1%23.8%
6f71481711.5%9.1%33.8%
6f8150138.7%9.2%26.7%
6f912054.2%8.6%22.5%
7f113885.8%9.8%30.4%
7f21411812.8%10.0%31.2%
7f31471510.2%10.0%27.9%
7f41411913.5%10.0%31.9%
7f51391410.1%9.9%29.5%
7f61441510.4%10.0%30.6%
7f7150106.7%10.0%30.7%
7f81431711.9%10.0%30.1%
7f9131107.6%9.7%22.1%
7f101011110.9%9.2%31.7%

The two most-run distances at Ayr in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Ayr 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 30.5%Since 2016 Middle: 30.9%Since 2016 High: 38.6%Since 2024 Low: 28.1%Since 2024 Middle: 35.1%Since 2024 High: 36.8%Expected by chance Low: 29.6%Expected by chance Middle: 33.8%Expected by chance High: 36.7%

Win % of races by Draw third

Ayr 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Win % Stall 1: 7.4%7.4%Win % Stall 2: 7.5%7.5%Win % Stall 3: 8.2%8.2%Win % Stall 4: 12.9%12.9%Win % Stall 5: 11.3%11.3%Win % Stall 6: 11.2%11.2%Win % Stall 7: 11.5%11.5%Win % Stall 8: 8.7%8.7%Win % Stall 9: 4.2%4.2%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 9: 8.6%8.6%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Ayr and their draw

8 Oct 26Aighear (GB) silksAighear (GB)2Middle51m5f1.57
8 Oct 26Ey Up Its Jazz (GB) silksEy Up Its Jazz (GB)3Low131m9.50
8 Oct 26Stanage (GB) silksStanage (GB)2Low107f6.00
8 Oct 26Alpha Magic (GB) silksAlpha Magic (GB)8High116f12.00
8 Oct 26Launch Time (GB) silksLaunch Time (GB)4Middle107f3.00
8 Oct 26Alfa Blueburd (IRE) silksAlfa Blueburd (IRE)4Middle76f3.00
8 Oct 26Motawaared (GB) silksMotawaared (GB)10High121m2f2.75
29 Sep 26Aighear (GB) silksAighear (GB)6High71m7f3.50
29 Sep 26Big Harry (GB) silksBig Harry (GB)6High86f7.50
29 Sep 26Highfield Viking (GB) silksHighfield Viking (GB)3Low117f4.33
29 Sep 26One Night Thunder (GB) silksOne Night Thunder (GB)8High107f6.50
29 Sep 26Tipsy Tiger (GB) silksTipsy Tiger (GB)8High91m2f5.50
29 Sep 26What A Girl Wants (IRE) silksWhat A Girl Wants (IRE)6High66f3.25
29 Sep 26Empirestateofmind (IRE) silksEmpirestateofmind (IRE)2Low81m2.20
19 Sep 26Viper (GB) silksViper (GB)2Low97f23.00
19 Sep 26Tyrrhenian Thunder (GB) silksTyrrhenian Thunder (GB)1Low57f5.50
19 Sep 26Silent Beauty (IRE) silksSilent Beauty (IRE)7High56f1.73
19 Sep 26Station X (GB) silksStation X (GB)5Low236f19.00
19 Sep 26Fast Tracker (GB) silksFast Tracker (GB)7High61m2f3.75
19 Sep 26Naval Light (GB) silksNaval Light (GB)10High141m17.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Ayr in the data with a full draw.

Ayr win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m2f1m5fLow third 5f: 32.2%Low third 6f: 30.3%Low third 7f: 28.1%Low third 1m: 26.3%Low third 1m2f: 31.5%Low third 1m5f: 31.7%Middle third 5f: 50.8%Middle third 6f: 34.2%Middle third 7f: 34%Middle third 1m: 28.6%Middle third 1m2f: 33.3%Middle third 1m5f: 41.5%High third 5f: 16.9%High third 6f: 35.5%High third 7f: 37.9%High third 1m: 45.1%High third 1m2f: 35.2%High third 1m5f: 26.8%

Win % of races by Distance

Ayr win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
20%30%40%50%60%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 30%Low third 2020: 30.5%Low third 2021: 32.5%Low third 2022: 33.7%Low third 2023: 28.9%Low third 2024: 24.4%Low third 2025: 25.9%Low third 2026: 31.8%31.8%Middle third 2019: 36.3%Middle third 2020: 30.5%Middle third 2021: 27.7%Middle third 2022: 32.6%Middle third 2023: 41%Middle third 2024: 40.2%Middle third 2025: 40.7%Middle third 2026: 27.3%27.3%High third 2019: 33.8%High third 2020: 39%High third 2021: 39.8%High third 2022: 33.7%High third 2023: 30.1%High third 2024: 35.4%High third 2025: 33.3%High third 2026: 40.9%40.9%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Ayr?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Ayr, the draw rates weak or none from 220 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the middle third has won 48.2% against 34.1% by chance (rated moderate).

Does the draw matter in the Ayr Gold Cup?

The Ayr Gold Cup is a big-field 6f handicap on the straight course, so the 6f row and the 16 or more runners band in the field size table are the closest guides. Cells under 20 races are hidden rather than guessed.

How do going and field size change the draw at Ayr?

The bias matrix gives every Ayr trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Ayr draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads no clear lean in either period, from 57 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Ayr?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Ayr, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 30.5% of 220 races against 29.6% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the middle third has won 48.2% against 34.1% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Ayr over 5f?

Stall 2 has the best top-three record over 5f at Ayr since 2016, placing in 40% of 80 runs against 26.8% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Ayr?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 30.3% of Ayr races against 29.6% by chance, and high draws 34.8% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter over Ayr's round course trips?

Ayr's 7f, mile and longer trips go round the left-handed bend, and each has its own row in the distance table below. Compare the low and high thirds there with the straight 6f to see where the Ayr draw counts.

How often are the Ayr draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseAyr course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseAyr racecardsThe next meeting's full cardAyr Gold Cup roll of honourPast winners of the raceHamilton draw biasThe same thirds at another course

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Updated