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Galway draw bias: festival Flat races on a sharp track

At Galway over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 37.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (145 races), middle draws 30.3% and high draws 31.7%, against 30.8%, 33.3% and 36% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Galway declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 8 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
7f
Trip where the draw stands out most
406
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 37.9% v 30.8%

At Galway over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 37.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (145 races), middle draws 30.3% and high draws 31.7%, against 30.8%, 33.3% and 36.0% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 145 races · Window: 25 July 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Galway draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes4065,75735.7%31.0%31.3%33.4%33.3%35.6%24.5%20.1%19.2%21.2%Low +4.7 pts0.131Weak or none
7fAll goingAll field sizes1451,87437.9%30.8%30.3%33.3%31.7%36.0%28.2%21.9%20.1%23.2%Low +7.1 pts0.171Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes2226936.4%30.6%40.9%33.6%22.7%35.8%32.5%27.8%14.6%24.5%Middle +7.3 pts0.442Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes1231,60538.2%30.8%28.5%33.2%33.3%36.0%27.5%20.9%21.0%23.0%Low +7.4 pts0.193Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners4644228.3%28.7%43.5%34.2%28.3%37.1%34.6%34.4%25.6%31.2%Middle +9.3 pts0.348Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners7198440.8%31.9%28.2%33.4%31.0%34.7%27.7%20.1%17.6%21.6%Low +8.9 pts0.266Weak or none
7fAll going16 or more runners2844846.4%31.3%14.3%31.3%39.3%37.5%23.6%12.9%19.6%18.8%Low +15.1 pts0.097Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3735727.0%28.5%40.5%34.3%32.4%37.2%31.4%33.6%28.6%31.1%Middle +6.2 pts0.710Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners6083240.0%32.0%28.3%33.4%31.7%34.7%27.4%20.1%17.7%21.6%Low +8.0 pts0.401Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2641650.0%31.3%11.5%31.3%38.5%37.5%24.6%10.8%20.5%18.8%Low +18.7 pts0.046Not enough data
1m½fAll goingAll field sizes1101,58337.3%30.9%30.0%33.5%33.6%35.6%23.8%19.2%19.9%20.8%Low +6.4 pts0.373Weak or none
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes911,29738.5%30.8%26.4%33.5%36.3%35.6%24.1%18.8%20.5%21.0%Low +7.7 pts0.209Weak or none
1m½fAll going8 to 11 runners2828328.6%29.0%32.1%33.5%39.3%37.4%29.3%29.5%30.2%29.7%High +1.9 pts0.979Not enough data
1m½fAll going12 to 15 runners2938531.0%31.7%34.5%33.2%34.5%35.1%28.7%20.3%19.3%22.6%Middle +1.3 pts0.989Not enough data
1m½fAll going16 or more runners5391545.3%31.4%26.4%33.8%30.2%34.8%20.1%15.5%16.7%17.4%Low +13.9 pts0.110Weak or none
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2424233.3%29.0%25.0%33.4%41.7%37.6%30.0%28.4%30.8%29.8%Low +4.3 pts0.679Not enough data
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2532932.0%31.7%32.0%33.1%36.0%35.2%29.8%19.3%19.8%22.8%High +0.8 pts0.993Not enough data
1m½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners4272645.2%31.4%23.8%33.9%33.3%34.8%19.7%15.4%17.1%17.4%Low +13.8 pts0.145Weak or none
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes1011,49629.7%31.5%33.7%33.3%36.6%35.2%21.5%19.4%19.9%20.3%High +1.4 pts0.919Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes861,27627.9%31.5%37.2%33.4%34.9%35.1%20.2%20.9%19.6%20.2%Middle +3.8 pts0.693Weak or none
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2736625.9%32.0%44.4%33.3%29.6%34.7%23.1%19.7%23.6%22.1%Middle +11.1 pts0.468Not enough data
1m4fAll going16 or more runners5595234.5%31.9%34.5%33.4%30.9%34.7%20.7%15.7%15.8%17.3%Low +2.6 pts0.828Weak or none
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2331121.7%32.2%47.8%33.1%30.4%34.8%20.0%22.3%24.1%22.2%Middle +14.7 pts0.300Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners4781636.2%31.9%38.3%33.4%25.5%34.6%20.3%16.8%14.9%17.3%Middle +4.9 pts0.423Weak or none

Flat races at Galway with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 25 July 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Galway draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances40635.7%31.3%33.3%31.0%33.4%35.6%Weak or none11540.0%33.9%27.0%Weak or noneStronger lately
7f14537.9%30.3%31.7%30.8%33.3%36.0%Weak or none4341.9%30.2%27.9%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m½f11037.3%30.0%33.6%30.9%33.5%35.6%Weak or none3345.5%30.3%27.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f10129.7%33.7%36.6%31.5%33.3%35.2%Weak or none2729.6%44.4%25.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Galway stall by stall at each distance

7f11321612.1%8.2%31.8%24.7%+7.2
7f21271310.2%8.2%32.3%24.5%+7.8
7f3140117.9%8.1%31.4%24.3%+7.1
7f4132118.3%8.2%25.0%24.6%+0.4
7f5130118.5%8.0%24.6%24.1%+0.5
7f61341712.7%8.1%34.3%24.3%+10.0
7f7132118.3%8.1%20.5%24.4%-4.0
7f813064.6%8.2%17.7%24.7%-7.0
7f911497.9%7.8%15.8%23.5%-7.7
7f1011954.2%7.7%12.6%23.1%-10.5
7f1110465.8%7.5%21.2%22.6%-1.4
7f1210165.9%7.3%21.8%22.0%-0.2
7f138356.0%7.0%19.3%21.0%-1.8
7f147068.6%6.8%22.9%20.3%+2.5
7f156734.5%6.6%14.9%19.9%-5.0
7f166357.9%6.7%27.0%20.0%+7.0
1m½f11021110.8%7.3%30.4%22.0%+8.3
1m½f29466.4%7.3%23.4%21.9%+1.5
1m½f310398.7%7.4%26.2%22.1%+4.1
1m½f49988.1%7.3%20.2%21.8%-1.6
1m½f51001111.0%7.2%23.0%21.7%+1.3
1m½f610465.8%7.4%24.0%22.1%+2.0
1m½f710276.9%7.3%23.5%21.9%+1.6
1m½f810066.0%7.2%20.0%21.7%-1.7
1m½f99144.4%7.3%22.0%22.0%0.0
1m½f109899.2%7.2%21.4%21.7%-0.2
1m½f11871011.5%6.9%13.8%20.8%-7.0
1m½f128256.1%6.8%15.9%20.4%-4.6
1m½f137733.9%6.5%13.0%19.5%-6.5
1m½f1467710.4%6.4%20.9%19.2%+1.7
1m½f156011.7%6.3%18.3%18.8%-0.5
1m½f165535.5%6.0%23.6%18.0%+5.6
1m4f19088.9%7.1%22.2%21.3%+0.9
1m4f28667.0%7.2%20.9%21.5%-0.5
1m4f39355.4%7.2%24.7%21.5%+3.2
1m4f49055.6%7.2%25.6%21.7%+3.8
1m4f581911.1%7.1%32.1%21.4%+10.7
1m4f69155.5%7.2%18.7%21.5%-2.8
1m4f78933.4%7.2%19.1%21.6%-2.5
1m4f889910.1%7.2%18.0%21.5%-3.5
1m4f9861112.8%7.0%29.1%21.0%+8.0
1m4f108755.7%6.9%17.2%20.7%-3.5
1m4f118156.2%6.7%12.3%20.2%-7.9
1m4f127767.8%6.5%27.3%19.4%+7.8
1m4f137179.9%6.3%16.9%18.8%-1.9
1m4f146945.8%6.3%18.8%18.9%-0.1
1m4f156523.1%6.1%13.8%18.3%-4.5
1m4f166311.6%6.1%14.3%18.3%-4.0
1m4f175459.3%6.0%16.7%17.9%-1.2

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Galway draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances31336.4%31.0%31.0%33.4%32.9%35.6%25.1%19.7%19.2%
7f11239.3%30.8%27.7%33.3%33.0%35.8%28.1%21.1%21.1%
1m½f8838.6%30.8%33.0%33.7%29.5%35.5%26.0%17.9%20.3%
1m4f7627.6%31.6%34.2%33.1%38.2%35.3%20.9%20.4%18.8%

Flat races at Galway with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Galway draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low31336.4%31.0%8.2%1,38311425.1%
Middle31331.0%33.4%6.6%1,4759719.7%
High31332.9%35.6%6.6%1,56910319.2%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Galway draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances35234.9%30.7%30.7%33.1%34.7%36.2%
7f12638.1%30.6%27.0%33.0%34.9%36.4%
1m½f10335.0%30.2%33.0%33.5%33.0%36.3%
1m4f7829.5%31.6%33.3%33.0%37.2%35.5%

Every Flat race at Galway with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Galway draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances3923.1%28.2%28.2%31.3%48.7%40.5%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances7728.6%28.9%36.4%34.0%35.1%37.1%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances11139.6%31.9%27.9%33.4%32.4%34.8%
16 or more runnersAll distances12538.4%31.5%30.4%33.0%32.0%35.5%
8 to 11 runners7f3534.3%28.7%42.9%34.6%22.9%36.6%
12 to 15 runners7f5644.6%32.0%21.4%33.3%33.9%34.7%
16 or more runners7f2133.3%31.3%19.0%31.3%47.6%37.5%
8 to 11 runners1m½f2623.1%28.8%34.6%33.7%42.3%37.5%
12 to 15 runners1m½f2236.4%31.9%40.9%33.9%22.7%34.2%
16 or more runners1m½f4050.0%31.3%27.5%33.7%25.0%35.0%
12 to 15 runners1m4f2025.0%32.0%45.0%33.0%30.0%35.0%
16 or more runners1m4f4330.2%32.2%34.9%33.1%34.9%34.7%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Galway draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances6237.1%30.9%25.8%35.6%37.1%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances8941.6%31.1%29.2%35.5%30.3%
SoftAll distances10634.0%31.1%42.5%35.5%23.6%
HeavyAll distances5632.1%30.8%28.6%36.1%39.3%
Good7f2236.4%30.6%22.7%35.8%40.9%
Good to soft or yielding7f3545.7%30.8%28.6%35.6%25.7%
Soft7f3237.5%31.1%46.9%35.5%15.6%
Heavy7f2334.8%30.7%30.4%36.7%34.8%
Good to soft or yielding1m½f2532.0%30.8%36.0%35.5%36.0%
Soft1m½f3246.9%30.6%34.4%35.7%18.8%
Soft1m4f2917.2%31.5%44.8%35.3%37.9%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Galway individual stalls, most-run distances

7f310987.3%8.2%32.1%
7f410198.9%8.3%24.8%
7f51001111.0%8.1%23.0%
7f61021413.7%8.1%33.3%
7f810066.0%8.3%18.0%

The two most-run distances at Galway in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Galway 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 37.9%Since 2016 Middle: 30.3%Since 2016 High: 31.7%Since 2024 Low: 41.9%Since 2024 Middle: 30.2%Since 2024 High: 27.9%Expected by chance Low: 30.8%Expected by chance Middle: 33.3%Expected by chance High: 36%

Win % of races by Draw third

Galway 7f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 8Win % Stall 3: 7.3%7.3%Win % Stall 4: 8.9%8.9%Win % Stall 5: 11%11%Win % Stall 6: 13.7%13.7%Win % Stall 8: 6%6%Expected by chance Stall 3: 8.2%8.2%Expected by chance Stall 4: 8.3%8.3%Expected by chance Stall 5: 8.1%8.1%Expected by chance Stall 6: 8.1%8.1%Expected by chance Stall 8: 8.3%8.3%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Galway and their draw

8 Sep 26Zadawa (FR) silksZadawa (FR)13High171m4f4.33
8 Sep 26Coulstys Way (IRE) silksCoulstys Way (IRE)6Middle151m4f8.50
8 Sep 26Beset (GB) silksBeset (GB)9Middle161m4f3.00
8 Sep 26Bang Po (IRE) silksBang Po (IRE)8Middle117f19.00
8 Sep 26Mary Doll (IRE) silksMary Doll (IRE)12High127f67.00
8 Sep 26Aquilla Star (IRE) silksAquilla Star (IRE)5Low141m½f11.00
8 Sep 26Lord Massusus (IRE) silksLord Massusus (IRE)8High71m½f6.00
8 Sep 26Leadlight (IRE) silksLeadlight (IRE)4High51m½f3.75
2 Aug 26Blue Blue Moon (IRE) silksBlue Blue Moon (IRE)10High111m½f15.00
2 Aug 26Oristown Boy (IRE) silksOristown Boy (IRE)5Middle107f8.50
2 Aug 26Dunum (IRE) silksDunum (IRE)4Low147f12.00
1 Aug 26Sir Jeremy (IRE) silksSir Jeremy (IRE)12Middle161m4f12.00
1 Aug 26Faoladh (IRE) silksFaoladh (IRE)1Low137f23.00
1 Aug 26Rest Your Mind (IRE) silksRest Your Mind (IRE)8Middle121m½f8.50
1 Aug 26Victory Speech (IRE) silksVictory Speech (IRE)1Low41m½f2.10
31 Jul 26Counting Coup (IRE) silksCounting Coup (IRE)1Low61m6f12.00
31 Jul 26Vantage Code (IRE) silksVantage Code (IRE)10Middle181m6f2.88
31 Jul 26Jp's Express (IRE) silksJp's Express (IRE)5Low181m½f4.33
31 Jul 26Stellar Moment (IRE) silksStellar Moment (IRE)13High161m4f6.00
31 Jul 26Joga Bonito (GB) silksJoga Bonito (GB)6Middle157f3.75

The 20 most recent Flat races at Galway in the data with a full draw.

Galway win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%10%20%30%40%7f1m½f1m4fLow third 7f: 39.3%Low third 1m½f: 38.6%Low third 1m4f: 27.6%Middle third 7f: 27.7%Middle third 1m½f: 33%Middle third 1m4f: 34.2%High third 7f: 33%High third 1m½f: 29.5%High third 1m4f: 38.2%

Win % of races by Distance

Galway win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 28.9%Low third 2020: 34.1%Low third 2021: 41.9%Low third 2022: 35%Low third 2023: 30.6%Low third 2024: 43.9%Low third 2025: 42.9%Low third 2026: 31.3%31.3%Middle third 2019: 31.6%Middle third 2020: 34.1%Middle third 2021: 30.2%Middle third 2022: 20%Middle third 2023: 30.6%Middle third 2024: 29.3%Middle third 2025: 33.3%Middle third 2026: 40.6%40.6%High third 2019: 39.5%High third 2020: 31.7%High third 2021: 27.9%High third 2022: 45%High third 2023: 38.9%High third 2024: 26.8%High third 2025: 26.2%High third 2026: 28.1%28.1%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Galway?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Galway, the draw rates weak or none from 145 races. It stands out most over 7f, where the low third has won 37.9% against 30.8% by chance (rated weak or none).

How do Galway's tight bends affect horses drawn wide over 7f?

The 7f row in the distance table is Galway's biggest Flat sample, and the low third has run above chance there in the current figures. The 1m½f row shows a similar lean.

How do going and field size change the draw at Galway?

The bias matrix gives every Galway trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Galway draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads stronger lately, from 43 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Galway?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Galway, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 37.9% of 145 races against 30.8% by chance. It stands out most over 7f, where the low third has won 37.9% against 30.8% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Galway over 7f?

Stall 6 has the best top-three record over 7f at Galway since 2016, placing in 34.3% of 134 runs against 23.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Galway?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 35.7% of Galway races against 31% by chance, and high draws 33.3% against 35.6%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does a low draw matter in the big handicaps at the Galway Festival?

Much of Galway's Flat racing happens at the summer festival, so festival races make up a large part of these figures. The 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners bands are the closest guides to its big handicaps.

How often are the Galway draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseGalway course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseGalway racecardsThe next meeting's full cardGalway FestivalFestival results and recordsWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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