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Sligo draw bias: a tight track's small Flat sample

At Sligo over 1m2½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (50 races), middle draws 22% and high draws 46%, against 30%, 33.7% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Sligo declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 5 August 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m2½f
Trip where the draw stands out most
158
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 46.0% v 36.3%

At Sligo over 1m2½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (50 races), middle draws 22.0% and high draws 46.0%, against 30.0%, 33.7% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 50 races · Window: 1 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Sligo draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1581,77232.3%29.9%24.7%33.8%43.0%36.3%27.9%25.4%27.4%26.7%High +6.7 pts0.045Moderate
5½fAll goingAll field sizes2629226.9%29.8%23.1%33.6%50.0%36.7%23.0%19.4%36.4%26.7%High +13.3 pts0.336Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes3439155.9%30.6%17.6%33.2%26.5%36.2%32.8%23.1%24.6%26.1%Low +25.3 pts0.005Not enough data
6fGoodAll field sizes2326552.2%30.4%17.4%32.7%30.4%36.9%31.3%23.0%26.5%26.0%Low +21.8 pts0.064Not enough data
1m2½fAll goingAll field sizes5053232.0%30.0%22.0%33.7%46.0%36.3%26.9%29.1%28.5%28.2%High +9.7 pts0.182Weak or none
1m2½fGoodAll field sizes2626738.5%30.1%15.4%33.9%46.2%36.0%27.2%30.0%30.2%29.2%High +10.2 pts0.138Not enough data
1m2½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2426525.0%29.8%29.2%33.6%45.8%36.6%26.6%28.1%26.8%27.2%High +9.2 pts0.645Not enough data
1m2½fAll going8 to 11 runners3331536.4%29.2%18.2%34.0%45.5%36.8%30.4%35.5%28.4%31.4%High +8.7 pts0.157Not enough data

Flat races at Sligo with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 1 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Sligo draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances15832.3%24.7%43.0%29.9%33.8%36.3%Moderate4035.0%17.5%47.5%Weak or noneStronger lately
5½f2626.9%23.1%50.0%29.8%33.6%36.7%Not enough data60.0%33.3%66.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f3455.9%17.6%26.5%30.6%33.2%36.2%Not enough data955.6%11.1%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2½f5032.0%22.0%46.0%30.0%33.7%36.3%Weak or none1533.3%20.0%46.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Sligo draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances13735.0%29.8%22.6%33.9%42.3%36.3%28.4%23.9%28.6%
5½f2626.9%29.8%23.1%33.6%50.0%36.7%23.0%19.4%36.4%
6f3455.9%30.6%17.6%33.2%26.5%36.2%32.8%23.1%24.6%
1m2½f4334.9%29.7%20.9%34.1%44.2%36.2%28.7%26.5%29.7%

Flat races at Sligo with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Sligo draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low13735.0%29.8%10.5%4584828.4%
Middle13722.6%33.9%6.0%5193123.9%
High13742.3%36.3%10.4%5565828.6%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Sligo draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances16036.9%29.7%23.1%33.5%40.0%36.8%
5½f3030.0%29.6%20.0%33.6%50.0%36.8%
6f4057.5%30.4%17.5%32.6%25.0%37.0%
1m2½f5137.3%29.5%23.5%33.6%39.2%36.8%

Every Flat race at Sligo with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Sligo draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances2347.8%28.7%26.1%31.3%26.1%40.0%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances7638.2%29.2%22.4%34.1%39.5%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances6131.1%30.7%23.0%33.6%45.9%35.7%
8 to 11 runners1m2½f2941.4%28.8%17.2%34.4%41.4%36.8%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Sligo draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances7035.7%29.8%41.4%36.5%22.9%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances5139.2%29.9%43.1%35.9%17.6%
Good6f2352.2%30.4%30.4%36.9%17.4%
Good1m2½f2339.1%29.9%43.5%36.1%17.4%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Sligo 1m2½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 32%Since 2016 Middle: 22%Since 2016 High: 46%Since 2024 Low: 33.3%Since 2024 Middle: 20%Since 2024 High: 46.7%Expected by chance Low: 30%Expected by chance Middle: 33.7%Expected by chance High: 36.3%

Win % of races by Draw third

Sligo win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5½f6f1m2½fLow third 5½f: 26.9%Low third 6f: 55.9%Low third 1m2½f: 34.9%Middle third 5½f: 23.1%Middle third 6f: 17.6%Middle third 1m2½f: 20.9%High third 5½f: 50%High third 6f: 26.5%High third 1m2½f: 44.2%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Sligo and their draw

5 Aug 26Anightaway (IRE) silksAnightaway (IRE)12High141m5½f12.00
5 Aug 26Canon Law (IRE) silksCanon Law (IRE)2Low101m5½f3.50
5 Aug 26Sand Art (IRE) silksSand Art (IRE)2Low126f11.00
5 Aug 26Hi Corbett Court (IRE) silksHi Corbett Court (IRE)1Low126f1.91
5 Aug 26Lady Patrona (GB) silksLady Patrona (GB)12High116f2.00
5 Aug 26Thatwilldoso (IRE) silksThatwilldoso (IRE)1Low51m2½f2.62
5 Aug 26Taj Crown (IRE) silksTaj Crown (IRE)11High141m2½f7.00
3 May 26Misty Cove (IRE) silksMisty Cove (IRE)3Low91m2½f7.50
3 May 26Metamorpheus (IRE) silksMetamorpheus (IRE)5Middle121m2½f6.00
3 May 26Lady Mairen (IRE) silksLady Mairen (IRE)8High101m2½f6.50
3 May 26Desert Friend (IRE) silksDesert Friend (IRE)12High141m6f8.50
3 May 26Gegenpressing (GB) silksGegenpressing (GB)4Low146½f5.00
3 May 26County Carlow (IRE) silksCounty Carlow (IRE)2Low86½f1.91
3 May 26Baiana (GER) silksBaiana (GER)6High76½f3.00
6 Aug 25Chopsticks (IRE) silksChopsticks (IRE)11High131m5½f5.50
6 Aug 25Trubshaw (GB) silksTrubshaw (GB)4Middle71m5½f5.00
6 Aug 25Undefeatable (IRE) silksUndefeatable (IRE)10High106f4.00
6 Aug 25Prairie Echoes (IRE) silksPrairie Echoes (IRE)7Middle136f15.00
6 Aug 25Felix Somary (IRE) silksFelix Somary (IRE)1Low106f8.00
6 Aug 25Lady Lunette (IRE) silksLady Lunette (IRE)5Low61m2½f10.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Sligo in the data with a full draw.

Sligo win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20212022Low third 2021: 46.4%Low third 2022: 26.1%26.1%Middle third 2021: 14.3%Middle third 2022: 26.1%26.1%High third 2021: 39.3%High third 2022: 47.8%47.8%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Sligo?

Over 1m2½f, the most-run trip at Sligo, the draw rates weak or none from 50 races. It stands out most over 1m2½f, where the high third has won 46% against 36.3% by chance (rated weak or none).

Is a Sligo draw figure worth using with such a small sample?

Sligo stages few Flat races, and only a handful of trips reach the 20-race minimum. The figures can swing sharply from one season to the next.

How do going and field size change the draw at Sligo?

The bias matrix gives every Sligo trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Sligo draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m2½f the check reads too few recent races, from 15 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Sligo?

Over 1m2½f, the most-run trip at Sligo, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 32% of 50 races against 30% by chance. It stands out most over 1m2½f, where the high third has won 46% against 36.3% (rated weak or none).

Is a low or high draw better at Sligo?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 32.3% of Sligo races against 29.9% by chance, and high draws 43% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does a low draw help on Sligo's tight bends?

The low and high thirds at Sligo have both run above chance across all distances pooled, while the middle third has trailed. The sample is small, so that pattern could change quickly.

How often are the Sligo draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseSligo course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseSligo racecardsThe next meeting's full cardRoscommon draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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