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Punchestown draw bias: the September Flat meeting

At Punchestown over 1m1f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 20.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2020 (24 races), middle draws 37.5% and high draws 41.7%, against 29%, 34.5% and 36.5% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Punchestown declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 15 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Not enough data
Rating on the most-run trip
1m1f
Trip where the draw stands out most
49
Races of 8+ runners since 2020
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 41.7% v 36.5%

At Punchestown over 1m1f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 20.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2020 (24 races), middle draws 37.5% and high draws 41.7%, against 29.0%, 34.5% and 36.5% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data.Sample: 24 races · Window: 3 September 2020 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Punchestown draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes4963422.4%29.4%36.7%34.3%40.8%36.3%24.7%21.1%23.9%23.2%High +4.5 pts0.558Weak or none
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes2431620.8%29.0%37.5%34.5%41.7%36.5%22.8%19.3%26.1%22.8%High +5.2 pts0.672Not enough data
1m1fGoodAll field sizes2026720.0%29.2%35.0%34.4%45.0%36.4%20.5%19.6%26.8%22.5%High +8.6 pts0.610Not enough data
1m1fAll going12 to 15 runners2230018.2%29.4%36.4%34.3%45.5%36.4%21.6%18.4%25.7%22.0%High +9.1 pts0.480Not enough data

Flat races at Punchestown with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 3 September 2020. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Punchestown draw bias: since 2020 v the last three seasons

All distances4922.4%36.7%40.8%29.4%34.3%36.3%Weak or none2015.0%30.0%55.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f2420.8%37.5%41.7%29.0%34.5%36.5%Not enough data714.3%28.6%57.1%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Punchestown draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances4922.4%29.4%36.7%34.3%40.8%36.3%24.7%21.1%23.9%
1m1f2420.8%29.0%37.5%34.5%41.7%36.5%22.8%19.3%26.1%

Flat races at Punchestown with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Punchestown draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low4922.4%29.4%5.9%1861124.7%
Middle4936.7%34.3%8.3%2181821.1%
High4940.8%36.3%8.7%2302023.9%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Punchestown draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances5623.2%28.8%33.9%34.1%42.9%37.1%
1m1f2920.7%28.4%34.5%34.3%44.8%37.3%

Every Flat race at Punchestown with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Punchestown draw by field size

12 to 15 runnersAll distances4119.5%29.3%36.6%34.5%43.9%36.2%
12 to 15 runners1m1f2218.2%29.4%36.4%34.3%45.5%36.4%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Punchestown draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances4221.4%29.3%42.9%36.4%35.7%
Good1m1f2020.0%29.2%45.0%36.4%35.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Punchestown 1m1f: win % by draw third, since 2020 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2020Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2020 Low: 20.8%Since 2020 Middle: 37.5%Since 2020 High: 41.7%Since 2024 Low: 14.3%Since 2024 Middle: 28.6%Since 2024 High: 57.1%Expected by chance Low: 29%Expected by chance Middle: 34.5%Expected by chance High: 36.5%

Win % of races by Draw third

Punchestown win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%1m1fLow third 1m1f: 20.8%Middle third 1m1f: 37.5%High third 1m1f: 41.7%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Punchestown and their draw

15 Sep 26Golden Splendour (GB) silksGolden Splendour (GB)5High61m1f4.50
15 Sep 26Believe Believe (IRE) silksBelieve Believe (IRE)15High131m1f6.00
15 Sep 26Chloe's Boy (IRE) silksChloe's Boy (IRE)12High141m1f17.00
15 Sep 26Sanctijude (IRE) silksSanctijude (IRE)10High141m1f5.50
15 Sep 26Back Straight (GB) silksBack Straight (GB)3Low141m1f1.30
15 Sep 26Follow Me (FR) silksFollow Me (FR)7Middle141m7.50
15 Sep 26Noble Exhibit (IRE) silksNoble Exhibit (IRE)6Middle141m3.75
15 Sep 26The Good Wife (IRE) silksThe Good Wife (IRE)1Low141m3.00
16 Sep 25Searcog (IRE) silksSearcog (IRE)14High131m1½f12.00
16 Sep 25Warazam (IRE) silksWarazam (IRE)14High141m1½f2.62
16 Sep 25Kashel Spring (IRE) silksKashel Spring (IRE)1Low141m1½f13.00
16 Sep 25Snapretend (IRE) silksSnapretend (IRE)7Middle141m1½f5.50
16 Sep 25Barbizon (IRE) silksBarbizon (IRE)2Low51m1½f4.00
16 Sep 25Sun Soldier (IRE) silksSun Soldier (IRE)14High141m9.00
16 Sep 25Port Of Spain (IRE) silksPort Of Spain (IRE)9High101m2.25
16 Sep 25La Fogata (IRE) silksLa Fogata (IRE)6Middle91m3.75
17 Sep 24Keilah (IRE) silksKeilah (IRE)5Middle131m1f3.25
17 Sep 24Rockbury Lad (GB) silksRockbury Lad (GB)8Middle121m1f10.00
17 Sep 24Shavasi (IRE) silksShavasi (IRE)1Low71m1f3.75
17 Sep 24Ard Na Mara (IRE) silksArd Na Mara (IRE)15High141m1f4.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Punchestown in the data with a full draw.

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Is there a draw bias at Punchestown?

Over 1m1f, the most-run trip at Punchestown, the draw rates not enough data from 24 races. It stands out most over 1m1f, where the high third has won 41.7% against 36.5% by chance (rated not enough data).

How many Flat races has Punchestown staged?

Punchestown returned to Flat racing in September 2020, its first Flat fixture since 2002, and has held one Flat meeting a year since. With so few races, most rows fall below the 20-race minimum and are hidden.

How do going and field size change the draw at Punchestown?

The bias matrix gives every Punchestown trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Punchestown draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2020 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m1f the check reads too few recent races, from 7 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Punchestown?

Over 1m1f, the most-run trip at Punchestown, the draw rates not enough data, with low draws winning 20.8% of 24 races against 29% by chance. It stands out most over 1m1f, where the high third has won 41.7% against 36.5% (rated not enough data).

Is a low or high draw better at Punchestown?

Across all distances since 2020, low draws have won 22.4% of Punchestown races against 29.4% by chance, and high draws 40.8% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Is the Punchestown Flat sample big enough to trust?

Not yet, because Punchestown has staged one Flat meeting a year since 2020 and its figures rest on a few dozen races. Treat any rating here as a pointer and read the race count before the percentages.

How often are the Punchestown draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2020, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by coursePunchestown course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the coursePunchestown racecardsThe next meeting's full cardNaas draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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