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Musselburgh draw bias: high stalls in the sprints

At Musselburgh over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (212 races), middle draws 34.4% and high draws 37.3%, against 29.5%, 34% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Musselburgh declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 12 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
681
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 37.3% v 36.4%

At Musselburgh over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (212 races), middle draws 34.4% and high draws 37.3%, against 29.5%, 34.0% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 212 races · Window: 24 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Musselburgh draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes6816,78630.0%29.5%32.6%34.2%37.7%36.4%29.4%28.9%31.8%30.1%High +1.3 pts0.645Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes2082,16126.0%29.7%30.8%34.0%43.3%36.3%22.4%27.5%35.5%28.9%High +7.0 pts0.108Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3737618.9%29.2%45.9%33.9%35.1%37.0%23.4%31.7%32.4%29.5%Middle +12.0 pts0.228Not enough data
5fGoodAll field sizes1111,14728.8%29.6%31.5%34.1%39.6%36.3%22.0%27.2%36.5%29.0%High +3.3 pts0.747Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6063825.0%30.4%20.0%33.8%55.0%35.8%22.6%25.6%35.5%28.2%High +19.2 pts0.006Moderate
5fAll going8 to 11 runners1521,40525.7%29.2%29.6%34.3%44.7%36.5%25.1%30.6%40.1%32.5%High +8.2 pts0.110Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners4862329.2%31.5%31.3%33.0%39.6%35.4%19.9%19.9%29.0%23.1%High +4.2 pts0.833Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2825125.0%28.5%39.3%34.5%35.7%37.0%26.4%34.9%37.6%33.5%Middle +4.8 pts0.853Not enough data
5fGood8 to 11 runners8478029.8%29.2%31.0%34.4%39.3%36.5%25.0%30.3%40.0%32.3%High +2.8 pts0.790Weak or none
5fGood12 to 15 runners2330026.1%31.1%39.1%33.3%34.8%35.6%16.1%21.0%30.8%23.0%Middle +5.8 pts0.808Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4037417.5%29.6%20.0%34.1%62.5%36.3%24.3%28.3%41.9%32.1%High +26.2 pts0.003Moderate
7fAll goingAll field sizes2122,06628.8%29.5%34.4%34.0%37.3%36.4%33.4%30.5%28.9%30.8%High +0.9 pts0.956Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4745727.7%28.6%42.6%34.9%31.9%36.4%31.8%36.5%24.7%30.9%Middle +7.7 pts0.589Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes1081,03425.9%29.8%33.3%33.9%40.7%36.4%31.7%30.7%31.6%31.3%High +4.3 pts0.575Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5757535.1%29.8%29.8%33.6%35.1%36.6%37.8%25.4%27.1%29.7%Low +5.3 pts0.669Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners1891,79028.0%29.1%35.4%34.1%37.0%36.8%33.6%32.5%29.4%31.7%Middle +1.3 pts0.920Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners2327634.8%33.3%26.1%33.3%39.1%33.3%32.6%17.4%25.0%25.0%High +5.8 pts0.738Not enough data
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4138526.8%27.9%46.3%35.2%29.3%36.9%28.7%40.0%26.8%31.9%Middle +11.1 pts0.347Weak or none
7fGood8 to 11 runners9992627.3%29.4%33.3%33.9%39.4%36.7%33.7%31.6%31.2%32.1%High +2.7 pts0.831Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4947930.6%29.3%30.6%33.6%38.8%37.1%37.1%28.0%28.1%30.7%High +1.7 pts0.904Weak or none
1mAll goingAll field sizes8382327.7%29.0%37.3%34.4%34.9%36.6%30.3%30.2%30.2%30.3%Middle +2.9 pts0.848Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2323321.7%28.6%52.2%34.4%26.1%36.9%22.4%31.3%33.7%29.6%Middle +17.8 pts0.200Not enough data
1mGoodAll field sizes3838023.7%29.5%42.1%33.9%34.2%36.6%31.0%31.3%28.1%30.0%Middle +8.2 pts0.536Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2221040.9%28.6%13.6%35.1%45.5%36.3%37.7%27.4%30.3%31.4%Low +12.3 pts0.103Not enough data
1mAll going8 to 11 runners6762122.4%28.4%41.8%34.8%35.8%36.9%30.5%35.3%31.0%32.4%Middle +7.0 pts0.402Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2019410.0%28.3%60.0%34.6%30.0%37.1%20.0%37.3%33.3%30.9%Middle +25.4 pts0.041Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners3028020.0%28.8%46.7%34.4%33.3%36.7%34.6%34.4%28.2%32.1%Middle +12.3 pts0.330Not enough data
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes5552930.9%29.6%32.7%34.4%36.4%36.0%30.4%29.3%33.7%31.2%Low +1.3 pts0.962Weak or none
1m1fGoodAll field sizes3229625.0%29.0%34.4%34.7%40.6%36.3%32.2%31.4%33.6%32.4%High +4.3 pts0.840Not enough data
1m1fAll going8 to 11 runners4641823.9%29.1%37.0%34.6%39.1%36.3%31.1%31.3%36.2%33.0%High +2.8 pts0.744Weak or none
1m1fGood8 to 11 runners2824821.4%28.4%39.3%34.9%39.3%36.7%33.8%34.9%33.0%33.9%Middle +4.4 pts0.708Not enough data
1m4½fAll goingAll field sizes5754940.4%28.7%29.8%34.7%31.6%36.6%34.6%28.0%31.3%31.1%Low +11.7 pts0.176Weak or none
1m4½fGoodAll field sizes3533042.9%28.5%25.7%35.1%34.3%36.4%37.9%27.0%31.7%31.8%Low +14.4 pts0.180Not enough data
1m4½fAll going8 to 11 runners4741736.2%28.3%31.9%35.0%34.0%36.7%35.3%29.7%36.6%33.8%Low +7.9 pts0.541Weak or none
1m4½fGood8 to 11 runners3026440.0%28.2%26.7%35.4%36.7%36.4%40.0%26.9%36.5%34.1%Low +11.8 pts0.347Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes2628646.2%29.7%19.2%33.7%34.6%36.6%30.6%26.0%25.7%27.3%Low +16.5 pts0.133Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes2422620.8%29.9%45.8%33.5%33.3%36.6%26.5%29.3%38.6%31.9%Middle +12.3 pts0.403Not enough data
2mAll going8 to 11 runners2118819.0%29.6%52.4%33.8%28.6%36.6%30.4%33.3%36.2%33.5%Middle +18.6 pts0.190Not enough data

Flat races at Musselburgh with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 24 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Musselburgh draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances68130.0%32.6%37.7%29.5%34.2%36.4%Weak or none17825.3%34.3%41.0%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f20826.0%30.8%43.3%29.7%34.0%36.3%Weak or none5022.0%30.0%48.0%Weak or noneStronger lately
7f21228.8%34.4%37.3%29.5%34.0%36.4%Weak or none6323.8%31.7%44.4%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m8327.7%37.3%34.9%29.0%34.4%36.6%Weak or none2619.2%42.3%38.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f5530.9%32.7%36.4%29.6%34.4%36.0%Weak or none1526.7%40.0%33.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4½f5740.4%29.8%31.6%28.7%34.7%36.6%Weak or none1145.5%36.4%27.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f2646.2%19.2%34.6%29.7%33.7%36.6%Not enough data250.0%50.0%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m2420.8%45.8%33.3%29.9%33.5%36.6%Not enough data50.0%60.0%40.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Musselburgh stall by stall at each distance

5f1185126.5%10.0%21.6%30.1%-8.5
5f2189179.0%10.0%20.6%30.0%-9.4
5f3196199.7%10.0%26.5%30.1%-3.5
5f42012010.0%10.0%31.3%30.0%+1.3
5f5192189.4%10.0%28.6%30.1%-1.4
5f61952010.3%10.0%26.2%30.0%-3.8
5f71952311.8%10.0%34.9%30.0%+4.9
5f8195168.2%10.0%30.3%29.9%+0.3
5f91771810.2%9.7%36.7%29.1%+7.6
5f101301914.6%9.1%39.2%27.2%+12.0
5f1110465.8%8.6%15.4%25.7%-10.3
5f1278911.5%8.2%38.5%24.6%+13.9
7f1205146.8%10.4%37.6%31.3%+6.2
7f22062713.1%10.4%35.9%31.3%+4.6
7f3199189.0%10.4%26.6%31.2%-4.6
7f42012914.4%10.4%36.8%31.3%+5.5
7f51972713.7%10.4%33.0%31.3%+1.7
7f6203146.9%10.4%29.1%31.3%-2.2
7f71972211.2%10.4%26.4%31.3%-4.9
7f8205188.8%10.4%29.8%31.2%-1.4
7f91701710.0%10.1%26.5%30.2%-3.8
7f10134107.5%9.7%23.1%29.2%-6.1
7f11931111.8%9.3%25.8%27.8%-2.0
7f1256610.7%9.1%37.5%27.2%+10.3
1m18167.4%10.3%28.4%31.0%-2.6
1m2801113.8%10.3%35.0%31.0%+4.0
1m37568.0%10.4%26.7%31.1%-4.5
1m4761013.2%10.3%38.2%30.9%+7.3
1m58178.6%10.4%32.1%31.1%+1.0
1m677810.4%10.4%29.9%31.2%-1.4
1m780810.0%10.4%27.5%31.2%-3.7
1m8761013.2%10.3%31.6%31.0%+0.6
1m96646.1%9.9%22.7%29.7%-7.0
1m105347.5%9.4%37.7%28.2%+9.5

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Musselburgh draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances48628.0%29.6%32.7%34.1%39.7%36.3%29.1%28.5%32.1%
5f14923.5%29.9%28.9%33.9%47.7%36.2%20.5%26.5%37.7%
7f15324.8%29.7%35.9%33.9%39.9%36.3%33.2%30.3%29.2%
1m6028.3%29.2%35.0%34.3%36.7%36.5%31.3%29.0%28.8%
1m1f4131.7%29.8%34.1%34.5%34.1%35.7%31.1%30.9%31.2%
1m4½f3735.1%28.5%35.1%34.7%32.4%36.7%34.7%28.9%31.8%

Flat races at Musselburgh with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Musselburgh draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low48628.0%29.6%9.4%1,44713629.1%
Middle48632.7%34.1%9.6%1,64915928.5%
High48639.7%36.3%10.9%1,76519332.1%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Musselburgh draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances84527.3%28.8%32.5%33.3%40.4%37.8%
5f27724.2%29.1%29.6%33.1%46.2%37.8%
7f23326.2%28.9%34.3%33.1%39.9%37.9%
1m9424.5%28.9%35.1%33.1%40.4%38.0%
1m1f8027.5%28.8%40.0%33.5%32.5%37.7%
1m4½f7634.2%28.2%34.2%34.1%32.9%37.8%
1m6f3246.9%29.2%21.9%32.7%31.3%38.0%
2m3122.6%28.0%29.0%33.9%48.4%38.1%

Every Flat race at Musselburgh with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Musselburgh draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances35926.5%27.8%32.3%32.2%41.2%39.9%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances38725.8%29.1%34.1%34.4%40.6%36.6%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances9437.2%31.7%26.6%33.0%36.2%35.3%
3 to 7 runners5f12825.0%28.0%30.5%32.3%44.5%39.7%
8 to 11 runners5f10522.9%29.3%26.7%34.3%50.5%36.4%
12 to 15 runners5f3925.6%31.6%33.3%32.8%41.0%35.6%
3 to 7 runners7f8028.8%27.4%31.3%31.7%40.0%40.9%
8 to 11 runners7f13523.7%29.2%37.8%34.0%39.3%36.7%
3 to 7 runners1m3417.6%28.3%35.3%31.2%47.1%40.5%
8 to 11 runners1m4621.7%28.5%39.1%34.8%39.1%36.7%
3 to 7 runners1m1f3923.1%27.8%46.2%32.4%30.8%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m1f3324.2%29.2%39.4%34.8%36.4%36.0%
3 to 7 runners1m4½f3933.3%27.8%33.3%33.4%33.3%38.8%
8 to 11 runners1m4½f3231.3%28.3%34.4%35.0%37.5%36.6%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Musselburgh draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances6221.0%29.2%33.9%36.6%46.8%
GoodAll distances27627.9%29.5%38.8%36.4%33.7%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances10027.0%29.6%45.0%36.2%28.0%
SoftAll distances4839.6%30.7%41.7%35.9%18.8%
Good5f8426.2%29.7%39.3%36.4%34.5%
Good to soft or yielding5f3225.0%30.7%62.5%35.7%12.5%
Good7f8723.0%29.8%42.5%36.4%34.5%
Good to soft or yielding7f3020.0%29.3%43.3%36.9%36.7%
Good1m3026.7%29.7%33.3%36.3%40.0%
Good1m1f2626.9%29.1%42.3%35.8%30.8%
Good1m4½f2540.0%28.5%36.0%36.4%28.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Musselburgh individual stalls, most-run distances

5f113286.1%10.0%18.9%
5f2136128.8%9.9%19.9%
5f3139107.2%10.0%23.7%
5f4146138.9%10.0%30.1%
5f51381410.1%10.0%29.0%
5f6138139.4%9.9%23.2%
5f71442013.9%10.0%36.1%
5f8141107.1%9.9%29.1%
5f91251411.2%9.6%39.2%
7f114996.0%10.4%36.2%
7f21481711.5%10.4%37.2%
7f3143117.7%10.4%26.6%
7f41442215.3%10.4%38.9%
7f51432215.4%10.4%32.2%
7f614796.1%10.4%27.2%
7f71441611.1%10.4%27.1%
7f8150138.7%10.4%30.0%
7f91261612.7%10.1%27.0%

The two most-run distances at Musselburgh in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Musselburgh 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 28.8%Since 2016 Middle: 34.4%Since 2016 High: 37.3%Since 2024 Low: 23.8%Since 2024 Middle: 31.7%Since 2024 High: 44.4%Expected by chance Low: 29.5%Expected by chance Middle: 34%Expected by chance High: 36.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Musselburgh 7f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Win % Stall 1: 6%6%Win % Stall 2: 11.5%11.5%Win % Stall 3: 7.7%7.7%Win % Stall 4: 15.3%15.3%Win % Stall 5: 15.4%15.4%Win % Stall 6: 6.1%6.1%Win % Stall 7: 11.1%11.1%Win % Stall 8: 8.7%8.7%Win % Stall 9: 12.7%12.7%Expected by chance Stall 1: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 2: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 3: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 4: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 5: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 6: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 7: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 8: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 9: 10.1%10.1%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Musselburgh and their draw

12 Oct 26Storm On Jura (GB) silksStorm On Jura (GB)8High82m6.00
12 Oct 26Jkr Cobbler (IRE) silksJkr Cobbler (IRE)8High117f7.50
12 Oct 26Ice Sovereigns (IRE) silksIce Sovereigns (IRE)7High77f13.00
12 Oct 26Fear And Fast (GB) silksFear And Fast (GB)12High145f9.50
12 Oct 26Donna Beauty (IRE) silksDonna Beauty (IRE)7High97f2.62
12 Oct 26Vegasmile (IRE) silksVegasmile (IRE)3High47f1.25
12 Oct 26Ibn Altheeb (IRE) silksIbn Altheeb (IRE)3Middle81m1f19.00
30 Sep 26Simple Star (IRE) silksSimple Star (IRE)2Low61m6f5.00
30 Sep 26Lairy Mary (GB) silksLairy Mary (GB)2Low65f3.00
30 Sep 26Lipsink (IRE) silksLipsink (IRE)10High125f23.00
30 Sep 26Beauty For Love (IRE) silksBeauty For Love (IRE)4Middle87f23.00
30 Sep 26Monhammer (GB) silksMonhammer (GB)8High117f6.00
30 Sep 26Walsingham (IRE) silksWalsingham (IRE)7High61m1f3.00
30 Sep 26Sable Noir (IRE) silksSable Noir (IRE)1Low35f6.00
12 Sep 26Fear And Fast (GB) silksFear And Fast (GB)7Middle115f13.00
12 Sep 26Boxing Great (IRE) silksBoxing Great (IRE)4Middle72m2f1.83
12 Sep 26Masaban (IRE) silksMasaban (IRE)4Middle107f4.50
12 Sep 26Sunriseontheboyne (IRE) silksSunriseontheboyne (IRE)3Low101m1f4.00
12 Sep 26Royal Strike (IRE) silksRoyal Strike (IRE)2Low95f3.75
12 Sep 26Vegasmile (IRE) silksVegasmile (IRE)9High97f3.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Musselburgh in the data with a full draw.

Musselburgh win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f7f1m1m1f1m4½fLow third 5f: 23.5%Low third 7f: 24.8%Low third 1m: 28.3%Low third 1m1f: 31.7%Low third 1m4½f: 35.1%Middle third 5f: 28.9%Middle third 7f: 35.9%Middle third 1m: 35%Middle third 1m1f: 34.1%Middle third 1m4½f: 35.1%High third 5f: 47.7%High third 7f: 39.9%High third 1m: 36.7%High third 1m1f: 34.1%High third 1m4½f: 32.4%

Win % of races by Distance

Musselburgh win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 30.6%Low third 2020: 28.3%Low third 2021: 24.2%Low third 2022: 31.4%Low third 2023: 33.3%Low third 2024: 14.5%Low third 2025: 26.6%Low third 2026: 33.9%33.9%Middle third 2019: 36.5%Middle third 2020: 37%Middle third 2021: 30.3%Middle third 2022: 35.3%Middle third 2023: 20%Middle third 2024: 43.6%Middle third 2025: 25%Middle third 2026: 35.6%35.6%High third 2019: 34.1%High third 2020: 34.8%High third 2021: 45.5%High third 2022: 33.3%High third 2023: 46.7%High third 2024: 43.6%High third 2025: 48.4%High third 2026: 30.5%30.5%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Musselburgh?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Musselburgh, the draw rates weak or none from 212 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.3% against 36.3% by chance (rated weak or none).

Why do high-drawn horses do well in Musselburgh 5f races?

The 5f row in the distance table carries Musselburgh's biggest sprint sample, and the high third has run above chance there in the current figures. The 7f and longer trips go round the right-handed bend and show a different pattern.

How do going and field size change the draw at Musselburgh?

The bias matrix gives every Musselburgh trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Musselburgh draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads no clear lean in either period, from 63 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Musselburgh?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Musselburgh, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 28.8% of 212 races against 29.5% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 43.3% against 36.3% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Musselburgh over 5f?

Stall 10 has the best top-three record over 5f at Musselburgh since 2016, placing in 39.2% of 130 runs against 28.9% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Musselburgh?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 30% of Musselburgh races against 29.5% by chance, and high draws 37.7% against 36.4%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the Musselburgh draw change on soft ground?

The going table splits Musselburgh results into good to firm, good, good to soft and soft bands, each with its race count. Soft-ground races are fewer, so that band swings more than the good-ground one.

How often are the Musselburgh draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseMusselburgh course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseMusselburgh racecardsThe next meeting's full cardAyr draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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