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Tipperary draw bias: the straight 5f and the round course

Tipperary at Limerick Junction has staged no racing since October 2025 while a new all-weather track is built, so this page records the old turf course. Over 7½f, its most-run Flat trip, low draws won 34% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (103 races), middle draws 22.3% and high draws 43.7%, against 30.6%, 33.1% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.

No Flat meeting at Tipperary declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 5 October 2025 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
328
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 43.7% v 36.2%

At Tipperary over 7½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 34.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (103 races), middle draws 22.3% and high draws 43.7%, against 30.6%, 33.1% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 5f, where the high third has won 56.1% of 82 races against 36.2% by chance (moderate).Sample: 103 races · Window: 21 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Tipperary draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes3284,09427.1%30.4%26.8%33.3%46.3%36.3%21.4%23.8%26.6%24.0%High +10.0 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll goingAll field sizes8293915.9%29.9%29.3%33.9%56.1%36.2%18.0%26.2%33.4%26.2%High +19.9 pts<0.001Moderate
5fGoodAll field sizes2226013.6%30.8%27.3%33.6%59.1%35.7%17.3%24.1%34.8%25.4%High +23.4 pts0.056Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4753814.9%29.8%27.7%34.0%59.6%36.2%18.5%26.4%32.5%26.2%High +23.4 pts0.004Moderate
5fAll going8 to 11 runners4542717.8%28.2%31.1%34.5%53.3%37.2%21.5%34.7%37.1%31.6%High +16.1 pts0.081Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3242612.5%31.9%25.0%33.1%62.5%35.0%17.6%18.4%30.9%22.5%High +27.5 pts0.003Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2625219.2%28.1%30.8%35.0%53.8%36.9%22.5%33.0%35.5%31.0%High +16.9 pts0.236Not enough data
7½fAll goingAll field sizes1031,28434.0%30.6%22.3%33.1%43.7%36.2%24.3%24.5%23.5%24.1%High +7.5 pts0.061Weak or none
7½fGoodAll field sizes3140538.7%30.7%16.1%33.1%45.2%36.1%24.0%23.1%21.9%23.0%High +9.1 pts0.132Not enough data
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5870931.0%30.5%24.1%33.2%44.8%36.4%22.6%26.0%24.9%24.5%High +8.4 pts0.277Weak or none
7½fAll going8 to 11 runners3837228.9%29.6%23.7%33.3%47.4%37.0%27.3%33.9%30.4%30.6%High +10.4 pts0.338Not enough data
7½fAll going12 to 15 runners5676833.9%31.2%21.4%33.3%44.6%35.5%22.1%20.7%22.8%21.9%High +9.1 pts0.148Weak or none
7½fGood12 to 15 runners2128733.3%31.3%19.0%33.0%47.6%35.6%21.1%17.9%26.5%22.0%High +12.0 pts0.346Not enough data
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2423516.7%29.4%29.2%33.2%54.2%37.4%21.7%34.6%34.1%30.6%High +16.8 pts0.197Not enough data
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3041036.7%31.2%23.3%33.4%40.0%35.4%21.9%22.6%21.4%22.0%Low +5.5 pts0.505Not enough data
1m1fAll goingAll field sizes7292929.2%31.1%30.6%32.5%40.3%36.5%22.1%22.3%25.1%23.3%High +3.8 pts0.798Weak or none
1m1fGoodAll field sizes2026115.0%31.5%35.0%32.2%50.0%36.3%20.7%23.8%24.2%23.0%High +13.7 pts0.247Not enough data
1m1fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4557233.3%30.8%31.1%32.8%35.6%36.4%23.2%22.5%25.0%23.6%Low +2.5 pts0.933Weak or none
1m1fAll going12 to 15 runners4356718.6%31.4%39.5%32.6%41.9%36.0%19.1%22.7%26.0%22.8%Middle +6.9 pts0.192Weak or none
1m1fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2128323.8%31.5%47.6%33.2%28.6%35.4%19.1%23.4%24.0%22.3%Middle +14.4 pts0.370Not enough data
1m4½fAll goingAll field sizes5980032.2%30.3%25.4%33.7%42.4%36.1%19.8%21.5%24.7%22.1%High +6.3 pts0.384Weak or none
1m4½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3345127.3%30.0%30.3%34.1%42.4%35.9%19.9%20.8%24.8%22.0%High +6.5 pts0.738Not enough data
1m4½fAll going12 to 15 runners3142529.0%30.8%25.8%33.8%45.2%35.3%17.6%19.4%28.0%21.9%High +9.9 pts0.479Not enough data

Flat races at Tipperary with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 21 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Tipperary draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances32827.1%26.8%46.3%30.4%33.3%36.3%Strong5223.1%30.8%46.2%Weak or noneHolding
5f8215.9%29.3%56.1%29.9%33.9%36.2%Moderate1414.3%42.9%42.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7½f10334.0%22.3%43.7%30.6%33.1%36.2%Weak or none1040.0%30.0%30.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1f7229.2%30.6%40.3%31.1%32.5%36.5%Weak or none1225.0%25.0%50.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4½f5932.2%25.4%42.4%30.3%33.7%36.1%Weak or none1127.3%27.3%45.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Tipperary stall by stall at each distance

5f17833.8%9.2%15.4%27.6%-12.2
5f27756.5%9.2%20.8%27.6%-6.8
5f38056.3%9.2%20.0%27.5%-7.5
5f47845.1%9.2%20.5%27.6%-7.1
5f57422.7%9.1%27.0%27.3%-0.3
5f677911.7%9.2%36.4%27.7%+8.7
5f7761013.2%9.1%35.5%27.3%+8.2
5f875912.0%9.2%32.0%27.5%+4.5
5f97179.9%8.8%21.1%26.5%-5.4
5f1060610.0%8.4%25.0%25.2%-0.2
5f115335.7%8.1%22.6%24.2%-1.6
7½f19277.6%8.3%19.6%25.0%-5.4
7½f2991212.1%8.3%31.3%25.0%+6.3
7½f39166.6%8.4%25.3%25.3%0.0
7½f49388.6%8.4%25.8%25.3%+0.5
7½f59166.6%8.4%20.9%25.1%-4.2
7½f69466.4%8.4%33.0%25.1%+7.8
7½f710055.0%8.3%24.0%25.0%-1.0
7½f89588.4%8.4%26.3%25.1%+1.2
7½f9931010.8%8.2%25.8%24.6%+1.2
7½f108655.8%8.0%23.3%23.9%-0.6
7½f117667.9%7.8%17.1%23.3%-6.2
7½f126158.2%7.3%21.3%22.0%-0.7
7½f1358712.1%7.2%24.1%21.7%+2.5
1m1f16746.0%8.1%19.4%24.2%-4.8
1m1f2621016.1%8.0%27.4%24.1%+3.3
1m1f36822.9%8.0%29.4%24.0%+5.4
1m1f46423.1%8.0%20.3%23.9%-3.6
1m1f57234.2%8.0%19.4%24.0%-4.6
1m1f665812.3%7.9%21.5%23.6%-2.1
1m1f77068.6%8.0%17.1%24.1%-7.0
1m1f86246.5%8.0%29.0%23.9%+5.2
1m1f966710.6%8.1%22.7%24.3%-1.6
1m1f106258.1%7.8%22.6%23.3%-0.7
1m1f1156610.7%7.4%30.4%22.2%+8.2
1m1f125159.8%7.3%29.4%22.0%+7.4

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Tipperary draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances22328.3%30.5%26.9%33.2%44.8%36.2%21.8%21.7%26.8%
5f5916.9%30.1%32.2%33.6%50.8%36.2%20.0%23.4%33.1%
7½f6238.7%30.7%21.0%33.1%40.3%36.2%26.3%22.5%22.1%
1m1f5129.4%31.0%29.4%32.6%41.2%36.4%22.7%19.8%25.9%
1m4½f4630.4%30.2%26.1%33.7%43.5%36.1%19.3%20.6%25.0%

Flat races at Tipperary with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Tipperary draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low22328.3%30.5%7.2%8706321.8%
Middle22326.9%33.2%6.4%9436021.7%
High22344.8%36.2%9.8%1,02510026.8%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Tipperary draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances28628.0%30.0%29.0%33.1%43.0%36.9%
5f8814.8%29.5%34.1%33.4%51.1%37.0%
7½f8740.2%29.8%26.4%32.9%33.3%37.4%
1m1f5930.5%30.9%28.8%32.3%40.7%36.7%
1m4½f4729.8%30.0%25.5%33.8%44.7%36.2%

Every Flat race at Tipperary with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Tipperary draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances6327.0%28.1%36.5%32.5%36.5%39.3%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances6729.9%29.1%20.9%33.5%49.3%37.5%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances12924.8%31.2%29.5%33.2%45.7%35.5%
16 or more runnersAll distances2740.7%30.8%29.6%32.8%29.6%36.5%
3 to 7 runners5f2910.3%28.2%37.9%33.1%51.7%38.7%
8 to 11 runners5f2917.2%28.3%31.0%34.1%51.7%37.6%
12 to 15 runners5f2615.4%32.0%30.8%33.1%53.8%34.9%
3 to 7 runners7½f2544.0%27.5%40.0%32.3%16.0%40.3%
12 to 15 runners7½f4136.6%31.1%22.0%33.3%41.5%35.6%
12 to 15 runners1m1f3417.6%31.4%38.2%32.6%44.1%36.0%
12 to 15 runners1m4½f2528.0%30.5%28.0%34.0%44.0%35.5%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Tipperary draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances2626.9%30.2%42.3%37.2%30.8%
GoodAll distances7229.2%31.1%44.4%36.0%26.4%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances7324.7%30.2%50.7%36.1%24.7%
SoftAll distances4934.7%30.3%34.7%36.4%30.6%
Good to soft or yielding5f2114.3%30.0%61.9%36.1%23.8%
Good7½f2437.5%31.1%45.8%35.9%16.7%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Tipperary 7½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 34%Since 2016 Middle: 22.3%Since 2016 High: 43.7%Since 2024 Low: 40%Since 2024 Middle: 30%Since 2024 High: 30%Expected by chance Low: 30.6%Expected by chance Middle: 33.1%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Tipperary win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f7½f1m1f1m4½fLow third 5f: 16.9%Low third 7½f: 38.7%Low third 1m1f: 29.4%Low third 1m4½f: 30.4%Middle third 5f: 32.2%Middle third 7½f: 21%Middle third 1m1f: 29.4%Middle third 1m4½f: 26.1%High third 5f: 50.8%High third 7½f: 40.3%High third 1m1f: 41.2%High third 1m4½f: 43.5%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Tipperary and their draw

5 Oct 25Deepone (GB) silksDeepone (GB)4Middle77½f4.33
5 Oct 25Grey Leader (IRE) silksGrey Leader (IRE)2Low61m1f13.00
5 Oct 25Shosholoza (IRE) silksShosholoza (IRE)1Low61m1f11.00
31 Aug 25El Bello (GB) silksEl Bello (GB)21High141m4½f34.00
31 Aug 25Jasmine Affanalis (IRE) silksJasmine Affanalis (IRE)11Middle151m1f4.00
31 Aug 25Grande Marques (IRE) silksGrande Marques (IRE)14High135f9.00
31 Aug 25Mississippi River (IRE) silksMississippi River (IRE)2Middle57½f2.50
31 Aug 25Redemption Road (GB) silksRedemption Road (GB)1Low137½f26.00
31 Aug 25Endorsement (IRE) silksEndorsement (IRE)9High121m1f2.00
31 Aug 25Princess Child (FR) silksPrincess Child (FR)8High107½f4.00
8 Aug 25Ms Messi (IRE) silksMs Messi (IRE)9Middle121m4½f26.00
8 Aug 25Nautical Force (GB) silksNautical Force (GB)4High31m1f1.53
8 Aug 25Shahada Ace (GB) silksShahada Ace (GB)2Low97½f3.50
8 Aug 25Mallavelly (IRE) silksMallavelly (IRE)7High77½f6.00
8 Aug 25Thesecretadversary (IRE) silksThesecretadversary (IRE)5High67½f4.00
8 Aug 25Ballysax Lil' Mick (IRE) silksBallysax Lil' Mick (IRE)9Middle155f29.00
8 Aug 25Stella Alpina (IRE) silksStella Alpina (IRE)7High85f1.67
2 Jul 25Chou Chou (IRE) silksChou Chou (IRE)3Low161m1f41.00
2 Jul 25Onemoredance (IRE) silksOnemoredance (IRE)12High131m1f4.33
2 Jul 25Amber Blossom (GB) silksAmber Blossom (GB)8Middle137½f8.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Tipperary in the data with a full draw.

Tipperary win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%2019202020212022202320242025Low third 2019: 33.3%Low third 2020: 22.2%Low third 2021: 26.3%Low third 2022: 46.7%Low third 2023: 22.6%Low third 2024: 25%Low third 2025: 20.8%20.8%Middle third 2019: 33.3%Middle third 2020: 33.3%Middle third 2021: 21.1%Middle third 2022: 13.3%Middle third 2023: 25.8%Middle third 2024: 35.7%Middle third 2025: 25%25%High third 2019: 33.3%High third 2020: 44.4%High third 2021: 52.6%High third 2022: 40%High third 2023: 51.6%High third 2024: 39.3%High third 2025: 54.2%54.2%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Tipperary?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Tipperary, the draw rates weak or none from 103 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 56.1% against 36.2% by chance (rated moderate).

Does the draw matter on the Limerick Junction straight 5f?

The 5f row in the distance table shows each third against chance on the straight at Tipperary. The high third has run above chance there in the current figures, from a modest sample.

How do going and field size change the draw at Tipperary?

The bias matrix gives every Tipperary trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Tipperary draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7½f the check reads too few recent races, from 10 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Tipperary?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Tipperary, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 34% of 103 races against 30.6% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 56.1% against 36.2% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Tipperary over 5f?

Stall 6 has the best top-three record over 5f at Tipperary since 2016, placing in 36.4% of 77 runs against 26.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Tipperary?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 27.1% of Tipperary races against 30.4% by chance, and high draws 46.3% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Are the summer evening fields at Limerick Junction big enough to count?

Tipperary has 223 Flat races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Several trips and going bands fall below the 20-race minimum and are hidden.

How often are the Tipperary draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseTipperary course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseIrish racecardsEvery Irish meeting on the next cardLimerick draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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