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Newbury draw bias: which group wins on the straight mile

At Newbury over 7f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (229 races), middle draws 37.1% and high draws 35.8%, against 30%, 33.8% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Newbury declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 19 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m2f
Trip where the draw stands out most
1,026
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 37.1% v 33.8%

At Newbury over 7f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (229 races), middle draws 37.1% and high draws 35.8%, against 30.0%, 33.8% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 229 races · Window: 13 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Newbury draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1,02611,70730.6%29.8%34.9%33.9%34.9%36.3%27.8%27.0%24.4%26.3%Middle +1.0 pts0.580Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes5670021.4%29.4%42.9%34.3%35.7%36.3%21.9%30.3%20.2%24.0%Middle +8.6 pts0.301Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2128419.0%29.6%47.6%33.7%33.3%36.7%17.4%30.5%18.4%22.2%Middle +13.9 pts0.358Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners3633122.2%28.3%41.7%34.9%36.1%36.8%34.0%36.5%27.9%32.6%Middle +6.8 pts0.624Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes2262,56331.9%30.2%35.0%33.7%33.2%36.1%29.2%27.6%23.0%26.5%Low +1.7 pts0.655Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes8188929.6%30.4%38.3%33.5%32.1%36.1%30.1%27.3%25.0%27.3%Middle +4.8 pts0.631Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes8092237.5%30.1%26.3%33.9%36.3%35.9%29.3%25.6%23.6%26.0%Low +7.4 pts0.242Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6575227.7%30.1%41.5%33.6%30.8%36.3%28.1%30.6%19.9%25.9%Middle +7.9 pts0.389Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1301,23432.3%29.1%30.0%34.0%37.7%36.9%35.8%29.9%29.8%31.6%Low +3.2 pts0.584Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners801,05631.3%31.7%38.8%33.4%30.0%34.9%24.6%26.6%17.3%22.7%Middle +5.4 pts0.535Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners5249628.8%29.4%32.7%33.7%38.5%36.8%34.9%30.5%29.5%31.5%High +1.7 pts0.970Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)12 to 15 runners2431029.2%32.3%50.0%33.2%20.8%34.5%26.0%23.3%20.6%23.2%Middle +16.8 pts0.182Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners4340237.2%29.0%25.6%34.2%37.2%36.8%35.0%29.2%32.4%32.1%Low +8.2 pts0.381Weak or none
6fGood12 to 15 runners3141535.5%31.4%22.6%33.7%41.9%34.9%24.6%24.3%18.6%22.4%High +7.0 pts0.420Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3533631.4%28.8%31.4%34.0%37.1%37.2%38.1%29.8%27.2%31.2%Low +2.6 pts0.927Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2533128.0%31.5%48.0%33.2%24.0%35.3%23.1%32.7%12.8%22.7%Middle +14.8 pts0.265Not enough data
6½fAll goingAll field sizes2934134.5%30.1%37.9%33.0%27.6%36.9%24.3%26.8%25.4%25.5%Middle +4.9 pts0.581Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes2292,62027.9%30.0%37.1%33.8%35.8%36.2%27.1%27.0%24.8%26.2%Middle +3.3 pts0.591Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes6067430.0%30.5%33.3%33.7%36.7%35.8%28.6%26.5%25.2%26.7%High +0.9 pts0.991Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes8297520.7%30.4%40.2%33.6%40.2%36.0%22.5%26.0%26.9%25.2%Middle +6.6 pts0.132Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes8797133.3%29.2%36.8%34.2%31.0%36.6%30.7%28.2%22.6%26.9%Low +4.1 pts0.489Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners1381,32627.5%29.0%34.1%34.3%39.9%36.7%33.2%30.0%30.8%31.2%High +3.2 pts0.784Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners7296527.8%31.4%41.7%33.3%30.6%35.2%22.1%24.5%20.6%22.4%Middle +8.4 pts0.323Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3937420.5%30.0%30.8%34.2%48.7%35.7%30.4%28.9%34.3%31.3%High +13.0 pts0.207Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners4241126.2%29.5%35.7%33.6%40.5%36.9%32.2%26.8%32.9%30.7%High +3.6 pts0.837Weak or none
7fGood12 to 15 runners3344415.2%31.6%48.5%33.7%36.4%34.7%17.1%26.7%22.7%22.3%Middle +14.8 pts0.083Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners5754133.3%28.0%35.1%34.9%33.3%37.1%36.2%33.0%26.9%31.6%Low +5.3 pts0.668Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2432229.2%31.4%37.5%32.9%33.3%35.8%25.7%21.7%20.0%22.4%Middle +4.6 pts0.890Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1611,91232.3%30.1%28.0%33.6%39.8%36.2%28.6%24.8%22.9%25.3%High +3.6 pts0.311Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3941928.2%29.8%25.6%33.8%46.2%36.4%34.1%25.5%25.0%27.9%High +9.8 pts0.401Not enough data
1mGoodAll field sizes6073043.3%30.4%30.0%33.5%26.7%36.1%32.7%25.4%17.1%24.7%Low +12.9 pts0.081Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6276324.2%30.1%27.4%33.6%48.4%36.3%21.6%23.8%27.3%24.4%High +12.1 pts0.140Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners8177034.6%28.9%25.9%34.0%39.5%37.1%40.8%29.9%25.9%31.6%Low +5.7 pts0.275Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners6585426.2%31.5%30.8%33.2%43.1%35.3%20.9%23.6%23.8%22.8%High +7.8 pts0.407Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2624423.1%29.0%23.1%34.1%53.8%36.8%39.4%25.3%32.2%32.0%High +17.0 pts0.193Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners2624753.8%29.1%23.1%34.1%23.1%36.8%48.6%28.6%20.9%31.6%Low +24.7 pts0.021Not enough data
1mGood12 to 15 runners2633430.8%31.5%38.5%32.9%30.8%35.6%26.7%28.2%16.0%23.4%Middle +5.6 pts0.812Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2927927.6%28.6%31.0%33.8%41.4%37.6%35.0%35.1%24.8%31.2%High +3.8 pts0.911Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2736614.8%31.4%25.9%33.6%59.3%35.0%12.2%18.7%34.4%22.1%High +24.3 pts0.025Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1741,95635.1%29.4%35.6%34.3%29.9%36.3%27.3%28.8%24.3%26.7%Low +5.7 pts0.141Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes3839242.1%28.2%18.4%35.2%39.5%36.6%30.4%27.0%30.8%29.1%Low +13.9 pts0.057Not enough data
1m2fGoodAll field sizes7184436.6%29.9%38.0%34.1%26.8%36.1%26.8%27.3%22.0%25.2%Low +6.7 pts0.211Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6572029.2%29.6%43.1%34.1%27.7%36.3%26.4%31.6%23.5%27.1%Middle +9.0 pts0.238Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners1091,03036.7%28.3%28.4%34.9%34.9%36.8%32.2%31.8%31.7%31.7%Low +8.4 pts0.124Weak or none
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners5066132.0%31.2%48.0%33.5%22.0%35.2%23.8%26.1%18.5%22.7%Middle +14.5 pts0.060Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2826242.9%26.9%14.3%36.0%42.9%37.1%35.2%27.7%35.1%32.1%Low +16.0 pts0.038Not enough data
1m2fGood8 to 11 runners3735043.2%28.8%29.7%34.6%27.0%36.5%31.7%33.1%30.5%31.7%Low +14.4 pts0.146Not enough data
1m2fGood12 to 15 runners2634934.6%31.0%42.3%33.8%26.9%35.2%25.9%22.9%18.7%22.3%Middle +8.5 pts0.554Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4441827.3%28.7%36.4%34.5%36.4%36.8%30.8%33.3%30.5%31.6%Middle +1.9 pts0.964Weak or none
1m3fAll goingAll field sizes2324530.4%29.3%21.7%34.3%47.8%36.4%33.3%20.2%31.5%28.2%High +11.4 pts0.390Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes7782626.0%29.5%41.6%33.6%33.8%36.9%30.8%28.6%25.1%28.0%Middle +8.0 pts0.371Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes2426525.0%30.5%37.5%32.9%37.5%36.6%26.8%27.6%27.1%27.2%Middle +4.6 pts0.819Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4042927.5%29.1%40.0%34.0%35.0%36.9%32.5%27.6%24.7%28.0%Middle +6.0 pts0.781Weak or none
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners5147127.5%28.5%41.2%33.8%33.3%37.7%38.5%31.0%29.2%32.5%Middle +7.4 pts0.577Weak or none
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2228822.7%31.7%40.9%33.3%36.4%35.0%22.0%25.0%21.8%22.9%Middle +7.6 pts0.622Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2725133.3%28.1%33.3%34.5%37.0%37.4%42.3%29.1%27.7%32.3%Low +5.2 pts0.874Not enough data
1m5½fAll goingAll field sizes2424120.8%28.3%37.5%35.1%41.7%36.6%24.6%21.4%42.0%29.9%High +5.1 pts0.712Not enough data
1m5½fAll going8 to 11 runners2018220.0%27.9%40.0%35.3%40.0%36.8%21.6%25.0%49.3%33.0%Middle +4.7 pts0.732Not enough data

Flat races at Newbury with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 13 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Newbury draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances1,02630.6%34.9%34.9%29.8%33.9%36.3%Weak or none28932.5%37.0%30.4%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f5621.4%42.9%35.7%29.4%34.3%36.3%Weak or none1910.5%42.1%47.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f22631.9%35.0%33.2%30.2%33.7%36.1%Weak or none7035.7%34.3%30.0%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
6½f2934.5%37.9%27.6%30.1%33.0%36.9%Not enough data1040.0%40.0%20.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7f22927.9%37.1%35.8%30.0%33.8%36.2%Weak or none6328.6%41.3%30.2%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m16132.3%28.0%39.8%30.1%33.6%36.2%Weak or none4235.7%26.2%38.1%Weak or noneWeaker lately
1m2f17435.1%35.6%29.9%29.4%34.3%36.3%Weak or none5145.1%33.3%21.6%ModerateStronger lately
1m3f2330.4%21.7%47.8%29.3%34.3%36.4%Not enough data450.0%25.0%25.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f7726.0%41.6%33.8%29.5%33.6%36.9%Weak or none1910.5%57.9%31.6%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m5½f2420.8%37.5%41.7%28.3%35.1%36.6%Not enough data520.0%40.0%40.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Newbury stall by stall at each distance

6f1201178.5%9.3%33.3%27.8%+5.6
6f2215188.4%9.3%28.8%27.8%+1.1
6f32112712.8%9.2%31.8%27.6%+4.2
6f4212115.2%9.2%26.4%27.7%-1.3
6f52092512.0%9.2%31.1%27.5%+3.6
6f62162411.1%9.2%27.8%27.7%+0.1
6f7216209.3%9.2%26.9%27.7%-0.9
6f82112310.9%9.3%30.3%27.9%+2.5
6f9198168.1%9.0%24.7%26.9%-2.2
6f10166116.6%8.6%19.3%25.8%-6.5
6f111421712.0%8.2%25.4%24.5%+0.8
6f1211465.3%7.8%22.8%23.5%-0.7
6f138167.4%7.4%21.0%22.1%-1.1
6f146457.8%7.0%18.8%21.0%-2.2
7f1213125.6%9.2%22.5%27.5%-5.0
7f22122210.4%9.2%28.8%27.5%+1.3
7f32162310.6%9.2%31.9%27.5%+4.4
7f4210115.2%9.1%26.7%27.3%-0.6
7f52112110.0%9.1%29.9%27.3%+2.5
7f6208167.7%9.1%25.5%27.3%-1.9
7f7213209.4%9.1%27.7%27.4%+0.3
7f82073115.0%9.1%31.4%27.3%+4.1
7f9202199.4%9.0%25.7%27.0%-1.3
7f10182147.7%8.7%29.7%26.1%+3.5
7f111502013.3%8.4%24.7%25.1%-0.4
7f12116108.6%7.8%27.6%23.5%+4.1
7f138667.0%7.4%17.4%22.1%-4.7
7f146323.2%6.8%11.1%20.5%-9.4
7f155335.7%6.8%13.2%20.3%-7.1
1m1149138.7%8.9%28.9%26.8%+2.1
1m2151138.6%8.9%29.8%26.7%+3.1
1m31532113.7%9.0%35.9%27.0%+8.9
1m415096.0%8.9%27.3%26.6%+0.7
1m5152127.9%9.0%24.3%26.9%-2.5
1m6145106.9%8.9%23.4%26.7%-3.2
1m7147149.5%8.9%27.2%26.6%+0.6
1m8151159.9%8.9%26.5%26.8%-0.3
1m914696.2%8.7%17.1%26.1%-9.0
1m10126129.5%8.4%25.4%25.2%+0.2
1m111101311.8%8.0%21.8%23.9%-2.1
1m129877.1%7.7%26.5%23.2%+3.3
1m136646.1%7.2%21.2%21.6%-0.4
1m145012.0%6.7%20.0%20.2%-0.2
1m2f11542013.0%9.4%34.4%28.2%+6.2
1m2f2163169.8%9.4%25.8%28.2%-2.4
1m2f31631811.0%9.4%27.6%28.1%-0.5
1m2f4161169.9%9.4%28.6%28.1%+0.5
1m2f51611710.6%9.4%31.7%28.3%+3.4
1m2f6158148.9%9.3%26.6%28.0%-1.4
1m2f7161138.1%9.4%29.2%28.2%+1.0
1m2f81581912.0%9.5%32.9%28.4%+4.5
1m2f9151117.3%9.2%23.8%27.5%-3.6
1m2f1012597.2%8.6%24.0%25.9%-1.9
1m2f1110687.5%8.3%20.8%24.9%-4.2
1m2f128078.8%7.7%26.3%23.2%+3.0
1m2f136123.3%7.3%23.0%21.8%+1.1
1m4f17256.9%9.8%27.8%29.3%-1.5
1m4f274810.8%9.7%43.2%29.2%+14.0
1m4f372811.1%9.8%26.4%29.3%-2.9
1m4f47157.0%9.8%26.8%29.3%-2.5
1m4f5681319.1%9.9%32.4%29.6%+2.8
1m4f670912.9%9.6%31.4%28.8%+2.7
1m4f768710.3%9.7%30.9%29.0%+1.9
1m4f86957.2%9.8%31.9%29.3%+2.6
1m4f96134.9%9.2%14.8%27.7%-12.9
1m4f1055610.9%9.1%29.1%27.3%+1.8

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Newbury draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances74331.1%29.9%35.1%33.8%34.1%36.3%27.8%27.4%24.9%
5f4320.9%29.3%39.5%34.5%39.5%36.2%23.9%29.5%22.0%
6f16633.7%30.1%34.9%33.7%31.3%36.2%28.0%28.0%23.7%
6½f2231.8%29.8%40.9%33.4%27.3%36.9%27.0%30.5%23.1%
7f16428.7%30.2%37.2%33.8%34.8%36.1%27.3%26.5%25.7%
1m11634.5%30.3%26.7%33.5%38.8%36.2%28.7%25.3%23.3%
1m2f13136.6%29.5%37.4%34.2%26.7%36.3%28.5%30.0%24.0%
1m4f5518.2%29.8%45.5%33.3%36.4%36.8%28.2%29.2%27.0%

Flat races at Newbury with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Newbury draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low74331.1%29.9%9.1%2,53123127.8%
Middle74335.1%33.8%9.2%2,82526127.4%
High74334.1%36.3%8.3%3,03425324.9%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Newbury draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances1,00531.5%29.4%35.0%33.3%33.7%37.3%
5f5123.5%29.1%39.2%34.2%37.3%36.8%
6f19534.4%30.0%34.9%33.4%30.8%36.6%
6½f2433.3%29.7%37.5%33.0%29.2%37.4%
7f23030.9%29.6%36.1%33.0%33.5%37.4%
1m14233.8%29.8%29.6%33.2%36.6%37.0%
1m2f17737.9%28.9%35.0%33.9%27.7%37.2%
1m3f2334.8%27.8%21.7%33.5%43.5%38.7%
1m4f9721.6%29.0%38.1%32.8%40.2%38.2%
1m5½f3414.7%27.9%50.0%33.7%38.2%38.4%

Every Flat race at Newbury with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Newbury draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances26232.8%28.0%34.7%31.9%32.8%40.1%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances46032.0%28.9%32.2%34.1%36.1%37.0%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances22528.4%31.5%40.9%33.3%31.1%35.1%
16 or more runnersAll distances5834.5%31.3%36.2%33.1%29.3%35.6%
8 to 11 runners5f2920.7%28.2%41.4%35.2%37.9%36.6%
3 to 7 runners6f2937.9%29.4%34.5%32.1%27.6%38.5%
8 to 11 runners6f9933.3%29.1%29.3%33.8%37.4%37.1%
12 to 15 runners6f5534.5%31.7%41.8%33.4%23.6%34.9%
3 to 7 runners7f6636.4%28.3%33.3%31.0%30.3%40.7%
8 to 11 runners7f9928.3%29.3%33.3%34.0%39.4%36.6%
12 to 15 runners7f5427.8%31.4%44.4%33.6%27.8%35.0%
3 to 7 runners1m2630.8%27.8%42.3%31.7%26.9%40.5%
8 to 11 runners1m6136.1%29.1%24.6%33.8%39.3%37.1%
12 to 15 runners1m4425.0%31.8%31.8%33.1%43.2%35.2%
3 to 7 runners1m2f4641.3%27.3%28.3%32.9%30.4%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m2f8839.8%28.6%31.8%34.7%28.4%36.7%
12 to 15 runners1m2f3429.4%31.2%50.0%33.5%23.5%35.3%
3 to 7 runners1m4f4226.2%27.8%28.6%32.1%45.2%40.0%
8 to 11 runners1m4f3823.7%29.0%39.5%33.4%36.8%37.6%
3 to 7 runners1m5½f2114.3%27.5%57.1%33.3%33.3%39.2%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Newbury draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances17231.4%29.8%34.3%36.5%34.3%
GoodAll distances31233.3%30.1%32.7%36.1%34.3%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances12025.8%29.9%33.3%36.4%41.7%
SoftAll distances8929.2%29.7%38.2%36.4%32.6%
HeavyAll distances5032.0%29.3%36.0%36.4%32.0%
Good to firm or firmer6f5131.4%30.2%33.3%36.5%35.3%
Good6f7240.3%30.1%31.9%35.9%27.8%
Good to soft or yielding6f2714.8%30.4%33.3%36.3%51.9%
Good to firm or firmer7f3828.9%30.5%36.8%35.9%34.2%
Good7f7024.3%30.6%38.6%36.0%37.1%
Good to soft or yielding7f2321.7%29.5%34.8%36.5%47.8%
Soft7f2433.3%28.9%33.3%36.6%33.3%
Good to firm or firmer1m2128.6%30.0%42.9%36.4%28.6%
Good1m5543.6%30.3%29.1%36.1%27.3%
Good to firm or firmer1m2f2548.0%28.0%32.0%36.9%20.0%
Good1m2f6237.1%29.7%25.8%36.0%38.7%
Good to soft or yielding1m2f2025.0%30.0%15.0%36.2%60.0%
Good1m4f2123.8%30.7%38.1%36.5%38.1%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Newbury individual stalls, most-run distances

6f1146128.2%9.3%28.1%
6f2158159.5%9.3%29.1%
6f31532013.1%9.2%30.7%
6f415485.2%9.3%29.2%
6f51522013.2%9.2%31.6%
6f6157159.6%9.2%28.7%
6f7159159.4%9.2%28.3%
6f81571710.8%9.3%29.3%
6f9146138.9%9.0%26.7%
6f1012597.2%8.7%20.0%
6f111061110.4%8.2%22.6%
7f1156106.4%9.2%24.4%
7f2153159.8%9.2%27.5%
7f31551811.6%9.2%33.5%
7f415174.6%9.2%23.8%
7f5151159.9%9.1%28.5%
7f6149138.7%9.1%27.5%
7f7156149.0%9.2%26.3%
7f81482416.2%9.2%34.5%
7f9146117.5%9.1%22.6%
7f10132118.3%8.8%31.8%
7f111031312.6%8.3%26.2%

The two most-run distances at Newbury in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Newbury 7f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 27.9%Since 2016 Middle: 37.1%Since 2016 High: 35.8%Since 2024 Low: 28.6%Since 2024 Middle: 41.3%Since 2024 High: 30.2%Expected by chance Low: 30%Expected by chance Middle: 33.8%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Newbury 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Win % Stall 1: 8.2%8.2%Win % Stall 2: 9.5%9.5%Win % Stall 3: 13.1%13.1%Win % Stall 4: 5.2%5.2%Win % Stall 5: 13.2%13.2%Win % Stall 6: 9.6%9.6%Win % Stall 7: 9.4%9.4%Win % Stall 8: 10.8%10.8%Win % Stall 9: 8.9%8.9%Win % Stall 10: 7.2%7.2%Win % Stall 11: 10.4%10.4%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.2%9.2%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9%9%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8.7%8.7%Expected by chance Stall 11: 8.2%8.2%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Newbury and their draw

19 Sep 26Abundant (IRE) silksAbundant (IRE)8High31m1.40
19 Sep 26Garfield Shadow (IRE) silksGarfield Shadow (IRE)7Middle167f4.33
19 Sep 26Saint Mungo (IRE) silksSaint Mungo (IRE)11High87f3.50
19 Sep 26Balzac (GER) silksBalzac (GER)1Low111m2f6.50
19 Sep 26Pearl River (GB) silksPearl River (GB)9Middle91m5½f5.50
19 Sep 26Miss Yechance (IRE) silksMiss Yechance (IRE)6Middle115f13.00
19 Sep 26Nabati (IRE) silksNabati (IRE)5Middle86f2.75
18 Sep 26Empirical (IRE) silksEmpirical (IRE)1Low81m2f3.25
18 Sep 26River Card (IRE) silksRiver Card (IRE)1Low81m2f2.88
18 Sep 26Bintknight (GB) silksBintknight (GB)1Low81m4f6.50
18 Sep 26Catullus (IRE) silksCatullus (IRE)6Middle87f3.00
18 Sep 26Bin Jahwar (IRE) silksBin Jahwar (IRE)2Low91m1.40
18 Sep 26Silver Sovereign (GB) silksSilver Sovereign (GB)12High117f4.00
18 Sep 26Sorrengail (GB) silksSorrengail (GB)4High47f1.73
18 Sep 26Oakford (IRE) silksOakford (IRE)2Low156f5.00
26 Aug 26Crusherman (IRE) silksCrusherman (IRE)2Low106½f3.75
26 Aug 26Magical Merlot (GB) silksMagical Merlot (GB)2Low71m2f5.00
26 Aug 26Lion of Mali (GB) silksLion of Mali (GB)1Low67f2.50
26 Aug 26Abundant (IRE) silksAbundant (IRE)2Low121m2.75
26 Aug 26Starburster (IRE) silksStarburster (IRE)8High106f6.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Newbury in the data with a full draw.

Newbury win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f6½f7f1m1m2f1m4fLow third 5f: 20.9%Low third 6f: 33.7%Low third 6½f: 31.8%Low third 7f: 28.7%Low third 1m: 34.5%Low third 1m2f: 36.6%Low third 1m4f: 18.2%Middle third 5f: 39.5%Middle third 6f: 34.9%Middle third 6½f: 40.9%Middle third 7f: 37.2%Middle third 1m: 26.7%Middle third 1m2f: 37.4%Middle third 1m4f: 45.5%High third 5f: 39.5%High third 6f: 31.3%High third 6½f: 27.3%High third 7f: 34.8%High third 1m: 38.8%High third 1m2f: 26.7%High third 1m4f: 36.4%

Win % of races by Distance

Newbury win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 34.4%Low third 2020: 35.8%Low third 2021: 18.8%Low third 2022: 34.1%Low third 2023: 29.4%Low third 2024: 27.5%Low third 2025: 28%Low third 2026: 45%45%Middle third 2019: 30.2%Middle third 2020: 28.4%Middle third 2021: 44.6%Middle third 2022: 36.3%Middle third 2023: 28.2%Middle third 2024: 42.2%Middle third 2025: 36%Middle third 2026: 31.3%31.3%High third 2019: 35.4%High third 2020: 35.8%High third 2021: 36.6%High third 2022: 30.8%High third 2023: 43.5%High third 2024: 30.3%High third 2025: 36%High third 2026: 23.8%23.8%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Newbury?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Newbury, the draw rates weak or none from 229 races. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the low third has won 35.1% against 29.4% by chance (rated weak or none).

Which group wins on the Newbury straight mile?

Newbury's straight course trips from 5f to a mile each have a row in the distance table, and the thirds sit close together across all distances pooled. When a field splits, the draw table shows which third the winners have come from.

How do going and field size change the draw at Newbury?

The bias matrix gives every Newbury trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Newbury draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7f the check reads stronger lately, from 63 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Newbury?

Over 7f, the most-run trip at Newbury, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 27.9% of 229 races against 30% by chance. It stands out most over 1m2f, where the low third has won 35.1% against 29.4% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Newbury over 6f?

Stall 1 has the best top-three record over 6f at Newbury since 2016, placing in 33.3% of 201 runs against 26.5% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Newbury?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 30.6% of Newbury races against 29.8% by chance, and high draws 34.9% against 36.3%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter in the Lockinge Stakes?

The Lockinge is a Group 1 over Newbury's straight mile, so the 1m row in the distance table is the closest guide. The page covers every Newbury race at the trip rather than tracking a single race.

How often are the Newbury draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseNewbury course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseNewbury racecardsThe next meeting's full cardLockinge Stakes roll of honourPast winners of the raceAscot draw biasThe same thirds at another course

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