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Ascot draw bias: straight course and round course stalls

At Ascot over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 26.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (225 races), middle draws 37.3% and high draws 36%, against 30.3%, 33.7% and 36% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

Next Flat meeting at Ascot: Saturday 17 October 2026, 7 races and 90 declared runners placed in their draw third · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
1,006
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 37.3% v 33.7%

At Ascot over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 26.7% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (225 races), middle draws 37.3% and high draws 36.0%, against 30.3%, 33.7% and 36.0% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 5f, where the high third has won 49.3% of 136 races against 36.2% by chance (strong).Sample: 225 races · Window: 27 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Ascot draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1,00613,51927.5%30.4%32.5%33.4%40.0%36.1%20.1%22.8%23.9%22.3%High +3.9 pts0.029Moderate
5fAll goingAll field sizes1361,98325.7%30.5%25.0%33.4%49.3%36.2%18.6%18.7%24.2%20.6%High +13.1 pts0.006Strong
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes731,17326.0%30.8%27.4%33.3%46.6%36.0%16.9%17.6%21.4%18.7%High +10.6 pts0.167Weak or none
5fGoodAll field sizes2533028.0%30.7%28.0%33.5%44.0%35.8%20.6%20.7%26.5%22.7%High +8.2 pts0.686Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3848023.7%29.7%18.4%33.5%57.9%36.7%21.4%20.0%29.1%23.7%High +21.2 pts0.021Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners5552730.9%29.0%30.9%33.3%38.2%37.7%32.7%31.4%30.2%31.3%Low +1.9 pts0.917Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3141429.0%31.4%22.6%33.0%48.4%35.5%23.1%18.2%25.9%22.5%High +12.9 pts0.283Not enough data
5fAll going16 or more runners501,04218.0%31.5%20.0%33.6%62.0%34.8%10.3%12.6%20.2%14.4%High +27.2 pts<0.001Moderate
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2221340.9%29.0%36.4%33.0%22.7%38.0%37.1%31.4%25.9%31.0%Low +11.9 pts0.288Not enough data
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)16 or more runners3270218.8%31.6%21.9%33.7%59.4%34.7%10.3%12.3%18.5%13.7%High +24.7 pts0.014Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2221013.6%28.5%22.7%33.9%63.6%37.6%23.3%31.0%38.0%31.4%High +26.0 pts0.039Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes1892,64531.7%30.6%28.0%33.2%40.2%36.2%19.8%21.7%22.7%21.4%High +4.0 pts0.298Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes881,36134.1%30.8%27.3%33.3%38.6%35.9%18.4%18.3%21.5%19.4%Low +3.3 pts0.481Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes4456229.5%29.9%27.3%33.1%43.2%37.1%20.6%23.2%26.1%23.5%High +6.1 pts0.642Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5772229.8%30.9%29.8%33.0%40.4%36.0%21.8%26.9%22.4%23.7%High +4.4 pts0.780Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners8783526.4%29.4%26.4%33.4%47.1%37.2%29.7%30.2%33.4%31.3%High +9.9 pts0.146Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners3546237.1%31.6%22.9%32.9%40.0%35.5%21.9%26.3%20.1%22.7%Low +5.5 pts0.449Not enough data
6fAll going16 or more runners671,34835.8%31.6%32.8%33.1%31.3%35.3%13.3%14.8%16.6%14.9%Low +4.2 pts0.714Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3029026.7%29.3%26.7%33.5%46.7%37.2%27.1%29.9%35.2%31.0%High +9.5 pts0.544Not enough data
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)16 or more runners4286340.5%31.7%28.6%33.3%31.0%35.1%14.6%12.9%16.6%14.6%Low +8.8 pts0.470Weak or none
6fGood8 to 11 runners2726418.5%28.7%29.6%33.4%51.9%37.9%26.3%29.5%35.0%30.7%High +14.0 pts0.287Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3028133.3%30.2%23.3%33.2%43.3%36.6%35.3%31.2%30.1%32.0%High +6.7 pts0.508Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1672,40126.3%30.6%38.3%33.6%35.3%35.8%17.8%22.6%22.0%20.9%Middle +4.7 pts0.349Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes751,12126.7%30.9%40.0%33.3%33.3%35.8%16.8%22.3%21.2%20.1%Middle +6.7 pts0.454Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes4355320.9%30.0%39.5%33.9%39.5%36.1%15.4%26.9%26.8%23.3%Middle +5.6 pts0.424Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4972730.6%30.7%34.7%33.9%34.7%35.5%21.2%20.0%19.5%20.2%Middle +0.8 pts0.991Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners6763028.4%28.8%41.8%34.1%29.9%37.1%30.8%32.2%32.5%31.9%Middle +7.7 pts0.348Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners4155024.4%31.8%41.5%33.2%34.1%34.9%18.9%26.8%21.4%22.4%Middle +8.3 pts0.459Weak or none
7fAll going16 or more runners591,22125.4%31.8%32.2%33.3%42.4%34.9%11.3%15.7%16.5%14.5%High +7.5 pts0.426Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3028130.0%29.4%43.3%33.3%26.7%37.3%26.5%35.5%33.3%32.0%Middle +10.0 pts0.402Not enough data
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)16 or more runners2962227.6%31.9%27.6%33.2%44.8%34.9%11.1%15.0%16.2%14.0%High +9.9 pts0.528Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners2423333.3%28.3%33.3%34.4%33.3%37.3%30.3%31.3%31.0%30.9%Low +5.0 pts0.848Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2039435.0%31.4%30.0%33.7%35.0%34.9%16.1%14.3%15.3%15.2%Low +3.6 pts0.920Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes2253,13326.7%30.3%37.3%33.7%36.0%36.0%20.4%22.4%21.7%21.5%Middle +3.6 pts0.393Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes1111,61021.6%30.3%44.1%33.9%34.2%35.9%18.1%22.8%20.9%20.7%Middle +10.2 pts0.043Moderate
1mGoodAll field sizes5163631.4%30.4%25.5%33.2%43.1%36.4%25.6%23.2%23.5%24.1%High +6.7 pts0.455Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6388731.7%30.4%34.9%33.8%33.3%35.8%21.0%21.1%21.8%21.3%Low +1.3 pts0.922Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners1281,21725.0%29.3%39.1%34.0%35.9%36.7%31.4%32.9%30.4%31.6%Middle +5.1 pts0.408Weak or none
1mAll going12 to 15 runners3546220.0%31.8%31.4%32.9%48.6%35.3%19.0%23.7%25.2%22.7%High +13.3 pts0.191Not enough data
1mAll going16 or more runners621,45433.9%31.5%37.1%33.6%29.0%34.9%12.4%13.1%12.9%12.8%Middle +3.5 pts0.623Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners6661224.2%29.2%42.4%34.1%33.3%36.7%30.2%35.6%31.1%32.4%Middle +8.3 pts0.353Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)16 or more runners3282521.9%31.9%46.9%33.7%31.3%34.4%9.5%12.6%12.7%11.6%Middle +13.2 pts0.253Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners3231128.1%29.6%31.3%33.5%40.6%36.9%33.7%31.7%27.8%30.9%High +3.7 pts0.909Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3029423.3%29.3%40.0%34.3%36.7%36.3%31.4%28.7%31.8%30.6%Middle +5.7 pts0.723Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2042040.0%31.1%35.0%33.7%25.0%35.2%15.3%14.9%12.8%14.3%Low +8.9 pts0.572Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes5966427.1%30.2%32.2%33.3%40.7%36.5%25.6%25.6%28.5%26.7%High +4.2 pts0.780Weak or none
1m2fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2935231.0%30.9%34.5%32.6%34.5%36.5%24.5%23.7%25.8%24.7%Middle +1.9 pts0.970Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2122123.8%30.2%28.6%33.7%47.6%36.1%28.4%24.3%32.5%28.5%High +11.5 pts0.546Not enough data
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners3532031.4%29.2%28.6%34.0%40.0%36.8%33.0%29.6%35.6%32.8%High +3.2 pts0.798Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes1291,49220.2%30.2%33.3%33.3%46.5%36.5%18.9%27.1%30.8%25.9%High +10.0 pts0.020Moderate
1m4fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes6377020.6%30.9%34.9%33.0%44.4%36.2%19.2%24.8%28.9%24.5%High +8.2 pts0.183Weak or none
1m4fGoodAll field sizes2023320.0%29.7%15.0%32.8%65.0%37.5%14.3%30.3%31.0%25.8%High +27.5 pts0.036Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4648919.6%29.6%39.1%33.8%41.3%36.6%20.7%29.1%33.5%28.2%Middle +5.3 pts0.328Weak or none
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners8378420.5%29.7%38.6%33.2%41.0%37.2%22.3%34.0%37.3%31.8%Middle +5.4 pts0.182Weak or none
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2431416.7%31.0%20.8%34.0%62.5%35.0%22.7%19.6%26.4%22.9%High +27.5 pts0.018Not enough data
1m4fAll going16 or more runners2239422.7%31.4%27.3%32.8%50.0%35.8%9.7%19.4%20.6%16.8%High +14.2 pts0.372Not enough data
1m4fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3533217.1%30.1%48.6%32.7%34.3%37.2%23.0%33.3%37.1%31.6%Middle +15.9 pts0.093Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3634225.0%29.5%36.1%33.7%38.9%36.8%22.8%33.0%37.3%31.6%Middle +2.4 pts0.838Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes2631330.8%30.0%50.0%33.3%19.2%36.7%27.4%34.0%14.8%24.9%Middle +16.7 pts0.114Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes3737324.3%29.4%24.3%33.2%51.4%37.4%26.1%28.5%33.8%29.8%High +14.0 pts0.209Not enough data
2mAll going8 to 11 runners3028120.0%28.7%26.7%33.3%53.3%38.0%28.4%29.0%37.4%32.0%High +15.3 pts0.218Not enough data
2m4fAll goingAll field sizes2131257.1%30.6%33.3%34.0%9.5%35.5%25.0%20.0%16.2%20.2%Low +26.5 pts0.012Not enough data

Flat races at Ascot with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 27 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Ascot draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances1,00627.5%32.5%40.0%30.4%33.4%36.1%Moderate28529.8%30.9%39.3%Weak or noneHolding
5f13625.7%25.0%49.3%30.5%33.4%36.2%Strong4119.5%29.3%51.2%Weak or noneStronger lately
6f18931.7%28.0%40.2%30.6%33.2%36.2%Weak or none5337.7%30.2%32.1%Weak or noneGone lately
7f16726.3%38.3%35.3%30.6%33.6%35.8%Weak or none4531.1%28.9%40.0%Weak or noneGone lately
1m22526.7%37.3%36.0%30.3%33.7%36.0%Weak or none6628.8%34.8%36.4%Weak or noneWeaker lately
1m2f5927.1%32.2%40.7%30.2%33.3%36.5%Weak or none2025.0%40.0%35.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4f12920.2%33.3%46.5%30.2%33.3%36.5%Moderate3525.7%28.6%45.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f2630.8%50.0%19.2%30.0%33.3%36.7%Not enough data825.0%37.5%37.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m3724.3%24.3%51.4%29.4%33.2%37.4%Not enough data742.9%28.6%28.6%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m4f2157.1%33.3%9.5%30.6%34.0%35.5%Not enough data580.0%0.0%20.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ascot stall by stall at each distance

5f1125118.8%7.7%21.6%23.2%-1.6
5f2119108.4%7.8%21.0%23.4%-2.4
5f312375.7%7.8%21.1%23.5%-2.4
5f412486.5%7.7%19.4%23.0%-3.7
5f512364.9%7.7%22.8%23.1%-0.3
5f612897.0%7.8%21.9%23.4%-1.5
5f712497.3%7.7%21.8%23.2%-1.4
5f812564.8%7.9%25.6%23.6%+2.0
5f911786.8%7.6%18.8%22.7%-3.9
5f101111210.8%7.3%24.3%21.8%+2.5
5f1110932.8%7.2%18.3%21.5%-3.1
5f129499.6%6.7%22.3%20.0%+2.3
5f137422.7%6.0%12.2%18.1%-5.9
5f1470710.0%5.8%15.7%17.3%-1.6
5f156035.0%5.4%25.0%16.3%+8.7
5f165447.4%5.2%22.2%15.5%+6.7
6f11761810.2%8.0%23.9%24.1%-0.3
6f2171148.2%8.1%25.7%24.2%+1.5
6f3173179.8%8.1%25.4%24.2%+1.3
6f417995.0%8.1%20.7%24.2%-3.5
6f5166137.8%8.1%22.3%24.2%-1.9
6f617595.1%8.1%19.4%24.2%-4.8
6f717784.5%8.0%24.3%24.0%+0.3
6f8174158.6%8.0%27.6%24.1%+3.5
6f9173137.5%7.9%21.4%23.6%-2.2
6f10146149.6%7.5%19.9%22.4%-2.5
6f11133107.5%7.1%20.3%21.3%-1.0
6f12120119.2%6.6%20.0%19.9%+0.1
6f139666.3%6.0%21.9%17.9%+3.9
6f149266.5%5.9%21.7%17.7%+4.1
6f157434.1%5.5%16.2%16.5%-0.3
6f167356.8%5.4%17.8%16.1%+1.7
6f176657.6%5.3%22.7%15.9%+6.8
6f185447.4%5.0%18.5%15.0%+3.5
7f1155106.5%7.9%23.9%23.8%+0.1
7f2161127.5%8.0%21.1%23.9%-2.8
7f3159148.8%7.9%20.8%23.8%-3.0
7f41481510.1%8.0%24.3%24.0%+0.3
7f5156138.3%7.9%23.7%23.8%0.0
7f6156117.1%7.8%23.7%23.4%+0.3
7f7150106.7%8.1%19.3%24.2%-4.9
7f8155127.7%7.9%21.3%23.7%-2.4
7f9150138.7%7.7%26.7%23.1%+3.5
7f10130107.7%7.4%23.1%22.1%+1.0
7f1111043.6%6.6%21.8%19.8%+2.0
7f1210465.8%6.3%19.2%19.0%+0.2
7f139788.2%6.2%17.5%18.6%-1.1
7f148344.8%5.8%18.1%17.5%+0.6
7f157434.1%5.6%14.9%16.9%-2.0
7f166534.6%5.3%13.8%15.8%-1.9
7f176146.6%5.2%18.0%15.6%+2.4
7f185423.7%5.0%22.2%14.9%+7.3
1m1207146.8%8.5%21.3%25.4%-4.2
1m2210125.7%8.5%27.6%25.4%+2.2
1m3211209.5%8.5%27.0%25.4%+1.6
1m4210188.6%8.6%24.3%25.7%-1.5
1m52102110.0%8.5%27.6%25.5%+2.1
1m6208178.2%8.6%24.5%25.9%-1.4
1m7215209.3%8.5%24.2%25.6%-1.5
1m8204178.3%8.5%27.5%25.4%+2.0
1m9187137.0%8.2%24.1%24.5%-0.4
1m10173158.7%7.7%23.7%23.1%+0.6
1m111401611.4%7.0%20.7%21.1%-0.4
1m1211198.1%6.5%16.2%19.4%-3.2
1m138611.2%5.7%12.8%17.2%-4.4
1m147822.6%5.2%6.4%15.7%-9.3
1m156158.2%4.9%13.1%14.8%-1.7
1m165823.4%4.6%10.3%13.9%-3.6
1m175235.8%4.5%21.2%13.4%+7.8
1m4f1116108.6%9.3%19.8%27.9%-8.1
1m4f211432.6%9.2%16.7%27.5%-10.9
1m4f312054.2%9.3%20.8%28.0%-7.1
1m4f41181411.9%9.3%30.5%27.9%+2.6
1m4f512186.6%9.3%25.6%28.0%-2.4
1m4f61201714.2%9.3%29.2%28.0%+1.2
1m4f71121210.7%9.2%33.9%27.6%+6.3
1m4f8118108.5%9.4%31.4%28.1%+3.3
1m4f91111311.7%9.0%31.5%27.1%+4.4
1m4f109566.3%8.5%26.3%25.6%+0.7
1m4f11781012.8%8.3%32.1%24.8%+7.3
1m4f125846.9%7.7%24.1%23.2%+1.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Ascot draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances72728.3%30.4%30.9%33.5%40.7%36.1%20.3%22.7%24.1%
5f9926.3%30.6%26.3%33.5%47.5%35.9%17.8%18.6%24.3%
6f13832.6%30.6%29.0%33.1%38.4%36.3%20.5%22.0%22.0%
7f12028.3%30.5%31.7%33.5%40.0%36.0%16.8%22.6%23.5%
1m16326.4%30.3%35.6%33.8%38.0%35.9%20.3%22.0%22.4%
1m2f4522.2%30.4%35.6%33.3%42.2%36.3%25.3%27.1%28.0%
1m4f9023.3%30.0%30.0%33.5%46.7%36.5%20.4%27.5%29.4%
1m6f2138.1%29.9%42.9%33.3%19.0%36.8%29.5%31.8%13.7%
2m2218.2%28.7%31.8%33.7%50.0%37.6%26.7%29.0%38.5%

Flat races at Ascot with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Ascot draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low72728.3%30.4%6.9%2,99620620.3%
Middle72730.9%33.5%6.9%3,24922522.7%
High72740.7%36.1%8.5%3,48829624.1%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Ascot draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances93527.6%29.9%32.2%33.2%40.3%36.8%
5f11926.9%30.2%29.4%33.4%43.7%36.4%
6f16131.7%30.0%30.4%32.8%37.9%37.1%
7f14028.6%30.2%29.3%33.3%42.1%36.5%
1m20726.6%30.1%35.7%33.4%38.2%36.5%
1m2f6627.3%30.2%33.3%33.4%39.4%36.4%
1m4f13821.7%29.3%32.6%33.0%45.7%37.7%
1m6f3030.0%29.6%43.3%33.3%26.7%37.1%
2m4517.8%28.1%40.0%33.6%42.2%38.3%

Every Flat race at Ascot with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ascot draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances20825.0%28.4%36.5%32.4%38.9%39.3%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances38127.8%29.2%34.1%33.8%38.1%37.0%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances14026.4%31.7%28.6%33.1%45.0%35.2%
16 or more runnersAll distances20630.6%31.6%26.7%33.2%42.7%35.3%
3 to 7 runners5f2030.0%27.9%45.0%32.9%25.0%39.2%
8 to 11 runners5f3836.8%29.0%34.2%33.7%28.9%37.4%
12 to 15 runners5f2425.0%31.5%25.0%33.0%50.0%35.5%
16 or more runners5f3716.2%31.8%18.9%33.6%64.9%34.6%
3 to 7 runners6f2326.1%26.9%39.1%31.2%34.8%41.9%
8 to 11 runners6f6728.4%29.6%25.4%33.2%46.3%37.1%
12 to 15 runners6f2138.1%31.4%23.8%32.8%38.1%35.7%
16 or more runners6f5036.0%31.5%36.0%33.0%28.0%35.5%
3 to 7 runners7f2030.0%28.2%15.0%32.2%55.0%39.7%
8 to 11 runners7f4926.5%28.7%38.8%33.8%34.7%37.5%
12 to 15 runners7f2927.6%32.1%34.5%33.3%37.9%34.6%
16 or more runners7f4231.0%31.6%21.4%33.2%47.6%35.2%
3 to 7 runners1m4427.3%29.5%36.4%31.7%38.6%38.8%
8 to 11 runners1m9825.5%29.2%38.8%34.1%35.7%36.7%
12 to 15 runners1m2123.8%32.3%28.6%32.9%47.6%34.8%
16 or more runners1m4429.5%31.6%31.8%33.6%38.6%34.8%
3 to 7 runners1m2f2138.1%29.7%28.6%33.5%33.3%36.8%
8 to 11 runners1m2f2729.6%29.6%29.6%33.9%40.7%36.5%
3 to 7 runners1m4f4818.8%28.0%37.5%32.2%43.8%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m4f5922.0%29.3%35.6%33.5%42.4%37.1%
3 to 7 runners2m2317.4%27.5%47.8%33.6%34.8%38.9%
8 to 11 runners2m2020.0%28.4%35.0%33.8%45.0%37.8%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ascot draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances34228.1%30.6%38.9%36.0%33.0%
GoodAll distances17027.1%30.1%44.1%36.6%28.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances10223.5%30.2%40.2%36.0%36.3%
SoftAll distances10236.3%30.0%40.2%36.1%23.5%
Good to firm or firmer5f5324.5%31.0%47.2%35.8%28.3%
Good5f2231.8%30.7%40.9%35.7%27.3%
Good to firm or firmer6f6235.5%30.5%37.1%36.2%27.4%
Good6f3627.8%30.0%41.7%37.0%30.6%
Good to firm or firmer7f5125.5%30.8%43.1%36.1%31.4%
Good7f3622.2%30.0%38.9%36.2%38.9%
Good to firm or firmer1m7719.5%30.1%36.4%35.9%44.2%
Good1m4231.0%30.5%47.6%36.3%21.4%
Good to soft or yielding1m2123.8%30.3%33.3%35.4%42.9%
Good to firm or firmer1m2f2133.3%31.4%28.6%36.1%38.1%
Good to firm or firmer1m4f4425.0%30.9%45.5%36.1%29.5%
Good to soft or yielding1m4f2020.0%29.0%40.0%37.2%40.0%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ascot individual stalls, most-run distances

6f11281310.2%8.1%22.7%
6f2122129.8%8.1%32.8%
6f3125118.8%8.1%24.8%
6f413286.1%8.1%19.7%
6f512597.2%8.0%18.4%
6f612686.3%8.1%21.4%
6f713332.3%8.1%24.8%
6f8126118.7%8.1%27.8%
6f9126118.7%7.9%21.4%
6f101091110.1%7.5%22.0%
1m115285.3%8.5%19.1%
1m2152106.6%8.5%29.6%
1m3152149.2%8.5%26.3%
1m4153149.2%8.6%26.1%
1m51551711.0%8.6%25.8%
1m6155149.0%8.7%26.5%
1m7157148.9%8.7%24.8%
1m8148128.1%8.5%29.7%
1m913464.5%8.3%21.6%
1m10123108.1%7.8%22.8%
1m111021413.7%7.0%20.6%

The two most-run distances at Ascot in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Ascot 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 26.7%Since 2016 Middle: 37.3%Since 2016 High: 36%Since 2024 Low: 28.8%Since 2024 Middle: 34.8%Since 2024 High: 36.4%Expected by chance Low: 30.3%Expected by chance Middle: 33.7%Expected by chance High: 36%

Win % of races by Draw third

Ascot next Flat meeting, 17 October 2026, with the draw record

17 Oct 2612:55Qatar Racing British Champions Day Two-Year-Old Conditions StakesClass 26f1113832.6%29.0%38.4%30.6%33.1%36.3%
17 Oct 2613:30Qatar Racing British Champions Long Distance CupClass 12m102218.2%31.8%50.0%28.7%33.7%37.6%
17 Oct 2614:05Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint StakesClass 16f1613832.6%29.0%38.4%30.6%33.1%36.3%
17 Oct 2614:40Qatar Racing British Champions Fillies & Mares StakesClass 11m4f139023.3%30.0%46.7%30.0%33.5%36.5%
17 Oct 2615:20Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 11m1116326.4%35.6%38.0%30.3%33.8%35.9%
17 Oct 2616:00Qatar Racing Champion StakesClass 11m2f66627.3%33.3%39.4%30.2%33.4%36.4%
17 Oct 2616:35Balmoral Handicap Stakes (sponsored By Qatar Racing)Class 21m2316326.4%35.6%38.0%30.3%33.8%35.9%

Declared runners exclude non-runners. Races of 8 or more declared runners use the 8 or more runners record at the same distance, smaller fields use the all field sizes record. Blank history means fewer than 20 races at that distance since 2019.

Ascot 1m win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Win % Stall 1: 5.3%5.3%Win % Stall 2: 6.6%6.6%Win % Stall 3: 9.2%9.2%Win % Stall 4: 9.2%9.2%Win % Stall 5: 11%11%Win % Stall 6: 9%9%Win % Stall 7: 8.9%8.9%Win % Stall 8: 8.1%8.1%Win % Stall 9: 4.5%4.5%Win % Stall 10: 8.1%8.1%Win % Stall 11: 13.7%13.7%Expected by chance Stall 1: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 2: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 3: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 4: 8.6%8.6%Expected by chance Stall 5: 8.6%8.6%Expected by chance Stall 6: 8.7%8.7%Expected by chance Stall 7: 8.7%8.7%Expected by chance Stall 8: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 9: 8.3%8.3%Expected by chance Stall 10: 7.8%7.8%Expected by chance Stall 11: 7%7%

Win % by Stall

Declared runners by draw third, next Flat meeting

12:55Crusherman silksCrusherman1Low32.6%30.6%6f11138
12:55Inner City Blues silksInner City Blues2Low32.6%30.6%6f11138
12:55Speed of Sound silksSpeed of Sound3Low32.6%30.6%6f11138
12:55Adaay of Scarlett silksAdaay of Scarlett4Middle29.0%33.1%6f11138
12:55Night In Vegas silksNight In Vegas5Middle29.0%33.1%6f11138
12:55Theheatison silksTheheatison6Middle29.0%33.1%6f11138
12:55Satellite of Love silksSatellite of Love7Middle29.0%33.1%6f11138
12:55Confucius silksConfucius8High38.4%36.3%6f11138
12:55Victory Gold silksVictory Gold9High38.4%36.3%6f11138
12:55Arapaho Gold silksArapaho Gold10High38.4%36.3%6f11138
12:55Oakford silksOakford11High38.4%36.3%6f11138
13:30Quickthorn silksQuickthorn1Low18.2%28.7%2m1022
13:30Highwayman silksHighwayman2Low18.2%28.7%2m1022
13:30Mount Atlas silksMount Atlas3Low18.2%28.7%2m1022
13:30Gregory silksGregory4Middle31.8%33.7%2m1022
13:30Amiloc silksAmiloc5Middle31.8%33.7%2m1022
13:30Caballo de Mar silksCaballo de Mar6Middle31.8%33.7%2m1022
13:30Opportunity silksOpportunity7High50.0%37.6%2m1022
13:30Queenstown silksQueenstown8High50.0%37.6%2m1022
13:30Daiquiri Bay silksDaiquiri Bay9High50.0%37.6%2m1022
13:30Amelia Earhart silksAmelia Earhart10High50.0%37.6%2m1022
14:05Paborus silksPaborus1Low32.6%30.6%6f16138
14:05Mitbaahy silksMitbaahy2Low32.6%30.6%6f16138
14:05Poatan silksPoatan3Low32.6%30.6%6f16138
14:05Power Blue silksPower Blue4Low32.6%30.6%6f16138
14:05Coppull silksCoppull5Low32.6%30.6%6f16138
14:05Prince of India silksPrince of India6Middle29.0%33.1%6f16138
14:05Soul Love silksSoul Love7Middle29.0%33.1%6f16138
14:05Almeraq silksAlmeraq8Middle29.0%33.1%6f16138
14:05Great Wish silksGreat Wish9Middle29.0%33.1%6f16138
14:05Kind of Blue silksKind of Blue10Middle29.0%33.1%6f16138
14:05Jasour silksJasour11High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:05Division silksDivision12High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:05Marvelman silksMarvelman13High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:05Binhareer silksBinhareer14High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:05Samangan silksSamangan15High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:05James's Delight silksJames's Delight16High38.4%36.3%6f16138
14:40Kalpana silksKalpana1Low23.3%30.0%1m4f1390
14:40Inis Mor silksInis Mor2Low23.3%30.0%1m4f1390
14:40Believed silksBelieved3Low23.3%30.0%1m4f1390
14:40Sparan Nua silksSparan Nua4Low23.3%30.0%1m4f1390
14:40Sugar Island silksSugar Island5Middle30.0%33.5%1m4f1390
14:40Johanna Walsh silksJohanna Walsh6Middle30.0%33.5%1m4f1390
14:40See The Fire silksSee The Fire7Middle30.0%33.5%1m4f1390
14:40Danielle silksDanielle8Middle30.0%33.5%1m4f1390
14:40Symbol of Majesty silksSymbol of Majesty9High46.7%36.5%1m4f1390
14:40Lilt silksLilt10High46.7%36.5%1m4f1390
14:40Tajlina11High46.7%36.5%1m4f1390
14:40Minnie Hauk silksMinnie Hauk12High46.7%36.5%1m4f1390
14:40Coedana silksCoedana13High46.7%36.5%1m4f1390

Each declared runner placed in its third by stall order among the declared runners (first 50 runners of the meeting). Figures are the course and distance record for that third since 2019.

Latest Flat winners at Ascot and their draw

3 Oct 26Gold Star Hero (IRE) silksGold Star Hero (IRE)6Middle125f4.50
3 Oct 26Hidden Force (GB) silksHidden Force (GB)12High116f7.00
3 Oct 26Al Aasy (IRE) silksAl Aasy (IRE)6High51m4f8.00
3 Oct 26Air Force One (IRE) silksAir Force One (IRE)1Low115f9.50
3 Oct 26So Regal (GB) silksSo Regal (GB)6Middle127f2.10
3 Oct 26Mezcala (GB) silksMezcala (GB)16High187f6.00
2 Oct 26Hot Fuss (IRE) silksHot Fuss (IRE)6High52m2.75
2 Oct 26Goldmoyne (IRE) silksGoldmoyne (IRE)18High186f17.00
2 Oct 26Infraad (IRE) silksInfraad (IRE)4High51m6f1.67
2 Oct 26Drymee (GB) silksDrymee (GB)1Low91m6.00
2 Oct 26Pink Larkspur (IRE) silksPink Larkspur (IRE)4High57f2.75
2 Oct 26Who Wants Me (IRE) silksWho Wants Me (IRE)17High187f17.00
5 Sep 26Maelstrom (GB) silksMaelstrom (GB)10High125f15.00
5 Sep 26Havana Blue (GB) silksHavana Blue (GB)12High136f6.50
5 Sep 26Applesandpears (GB) silksApplesandpears (GB)7High101m26.00
5 Sep 26Gavriel (GB) silksGavriel (GB)2Low61m2f3.50
5 Sep 26Pensando A Te (GB) silksPensando A Te (GB)3High46f2.20
5 Sep 26Turty Tree (IRE) silksTurty Tree (IRE)4Middle91m4f21.00
5 Sep 26Thunder Call (GB) silksThunder Call (GB)10High87f2.00
4 Sep 26First Legion (IRE) silksFirst Legion (IRE)1Low87f6.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Ascot in the data with a full draw.

Ascot win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m2f1m4f1m6f2mLow third 5f: 26.3%Low third 6f: 32.6%Low third 7f: 28.3%Low third 1m: 26.4%Low third 1m2f: 22.2%Low third 1m4f: 23.3%Low third 1m6f: 38.1%Low third 2m: 18.2%Middle third 5f: 26.3%Middle third 6f: 29%Middle third 7f: 31.7%Middle third 1m: 35.6%Middle third 1m2f: 35.6%Middle third 1m4f: 30%Middle third 1m6f: 42.9%Middle third 2m: 31.8%High third 5f: 47.5%High third 6f: 38.4%High third 7f: 40%High third 1m: 38%High third 1m2f: 42.2%High third 1m4f: 46.7%High third 1m6f: 19%High third 2m: 50%

Win % of races by Distance

Ascot win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 24.4%Low third 2020: 28.2%Low third 2021: 27.2%Low third 2022: 30.7%Low third 2023: 26.6%Low third 2024: 28.6%Low third 2025: 34%Low third 2026: 26.9%26.9%Middle third 2019: 32.2%Middle third 2020: 32.1%Middle third 2021: 29.3%Middle third 2022: 31.8%Middle third 2023: 29.8%Middle third 2024: 32.7%Middle third 2025: 31.9%Middle third 2026: 28%28%High third 2019: 43.3%High third 2020: 39.7%High third 2021: 43.5%High third 2022: 37.5%High third 2023: 43.6%High third 2024: 38.8%High third 2025: 34%High third 2026: 45.2%45.2%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Ascot?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Ascot, the draw rates weak or none from 225 races. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 49.3% against 36.2% by chance (rated strong).

Is a wide draw a real problem on Ascot's round course?

Ascot's trips from 1m2f upwards run on the round course and are in the distance table below, each with its race count. Compare the low and high thirds there with the straight course sprints, where big fields split into groups.

How do going and field size change the draw at Ascot?

The bias matrix gives every Ascot trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Ascot draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads weaker lately, from 66 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Ascot?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Ascot, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 26.7% of 225 races against 30.3% by chance. It stands out most over 5f, where the high third has won 49.3% against 36.2% (rated strong).

Which stall is best at Ascot over 5f?

Stall 8 has the best top-three record over 5f at Ascot since 2016, placing in 25.6% of 125 runs against 20.6% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Ascot?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 27.5% of Ascot races against 30.4% by chance, and high draws 40% against 36.1%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter at Royal Ascot?

Royal Ascot races run on the same straight and round courses as the rest of the Ascot season, so the distance rows here cover them. The big-field handicaps fall into the 12 or more runners bands of the field size table, which is the place to check before the meeting.

How often are the Ascot draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseAscot course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseAscot racecardsThe next meeting's full cardRoyal AscotFestival results and recordsWokingham Stakes roll of honourPast winners of the race

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