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Clonmel draw bias: a jumps track's Flat races

At Clonmel over 1m1½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 17.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (28 races), middle draws 42.9% and high draws 39.3%, against 30.1%, 33.5% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Clonmel declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 16 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Not enough data
Rating on the most-run trip
1m1½f
Trip where the draw stands out most
42
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 42.9% v 33.5%

At Clonmel over 1m1½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 17.9% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (28 races), middle draws 42.9% and high draws 39.3%, against 30.1%, 33.5% and 36.4% by chance. Bias rating: not enough data.Sample: 28 races · Window: 5 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Clonmel draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes4247821.4%29.9%40.5%34.0%38.1%36.1%22.2%27.2%29.1%26.4%Middle +6.5 pts0.454Weak or none
1m1½fAll goingAll field sizes2831417.9%30.1%42.9%33.5%39.3%36.4%22.1%28.6%28.9%26.8%Middle +9.4 pts0.336Not enough data

Flat races at Clonmel with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 5 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Clonmel draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances4221.4%40.5%38.1%29.9%34.0%36.1%Weak or none1735.3%35.3%29.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m1½f2817.9%42.9%39.3%30.1%33.5%36.4%Not enough data825.0%62.5%12.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Clonmel draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances3724.3%30.1%37.8%33.8%37.8%36.2%22.0%26.8%29.6%
1m1½f2619.2%30.4%42.3%33.3%38.5%36.4%21.1%28.6%29.0%

Flat races at Clonmel with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Clonmel draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low3724.3%30.1%7.1%127922.0%
Middle3737.8%33.8%9.9%1421426.8%
High3737.8%36.2%9.2%1521429.6%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Clonmel draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances4524.4%30.0%40.0%33.1%35.6%36.9%
1m1½f3122.6%30.4%41.9%32.8%35.5%36.8%

Every Flat race at Clonmel with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Clonmel 1m1½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 17.9%Since 2016 Middle: 42.9%Since 2016 High: 39.3%Since 2024 Low: 25%Since 2024 Middle: 62.5%Since 2024 High: 12.5%Expected by chance Low: 30.1%Expected by chance Middle: 33.5%Expected by chance High: 36.4%

Win % of races by Draw third

Clonmel win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%1m1½fLow third 1m1½f: 19.2%Middle third 1m1½f: 42.3%High third 1m1½f: 38.5%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Clonmel and their draw

16 Sep 26Cornmarket (IRE) silksCornmarket (IRE)3Middle72m1f11.00
16 Sep 26Not Just Any Eagle (IRE) silksNot Just Any Eagle (IRE)2Low112m1f6.00
16 Sep 26Guy's Girl (IRE) silksGuy's Girl (IRE)8Middle141m2f5.50
16 Sep 26Sinbad My Dad (IRE) silksSinbad My Dad (IRE)4Low91m2f5.50
16 Sep 26Mare Crisium (IRE) silksMare Crisium (IRE)14High141m2f5.50
16 Sep 26Kakori (IRE) silksKakori (IRE)6High71m2f2.00
16 Sep 26Noble Honour (IRE) silksNoble Honour (IRE)6High81m2f3.25
11 Sep 25Make Good (IRE) silksMake Good (IRE)11High112m½f9.00
11 Sep 25The Mediator (IRE) silksThe Mediator (IRE)4Low122m½f8.50
11 Sep 25Shoda (IRE) silksShoda (IRE)9High112m½f2.25
11 Sep 25Chou Chou (IRE) silksChou Chou (IRE)1Low121m1½f5.00
11 Sep 25Iron Fist (IRE) silksIron Fist (IRE)6Middle101m1½f2.75
11 Sep 25Justenzia (IRE) silksJustenzia (IRE)13High131m1½f5.00
11 Sep 25So Golden (GB) silksSo Golden (GB)8Middle121m1½f3.25
11 Sep 25Its All Peachy (IRE) silksIts All Peachy (IRE)6Middle101m1½f5.50
5 Sep 24Curious Bride (IRE) silksCurious Bride (IRE)2Low132m½f8.00
5 Sep 24En Or (FR) silksEn Or (FR)4Middle72m½f9.00
5 Sep 24Barrogstown Girl (IRE) silksBarrogstown Girl (IRE)1Low131m1½f12.00
5 Sep 24Expound (GB) silksExpound (GB)5High61m1½f2.88
5 Sep 24Bizarre Dreams (IRE) silksBizarre Dreams (IRE)5Middle121m1½f3.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Clonmel in the data with a full draw.

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Is there a draw bias at Clonmel?

Over 1m1½f, the most-run trip at Clonmel, the draw rates not enough data from 28 races. It stands out most over 1m1½f, where the middle third has won 42.9% against 33.5% by chance (rated not enough data).

Does Clonmel run enough Flat races to measure a draw bias?

Clonmel stages few Flat races, so its sample is very small and most splits are hidden. Treat any Clonmel draw figure as a rough pointer, not a pattern.

How do going and field size change the draw at Clonmel?

The bias matrix gives every Clonmel trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Clonmel draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m1½f the check reads too few recent races, from 8 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Clonmel?

Over 1m1½f, the most-run trip at Clonmel, the draw rates not enough data, with low draws winning 17.9% of 28 races against 30.1% by chance. It stands out most over 1m1½f, where the middle third has won 42.9% against 33.5% (rated not enough data).

Is a low or high draw better at Clonmel?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 21.4% of Clonmel races against 29.9% by chance, and high draws 38.1% against 36.1%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

When Clonmel stages a Flat race, should the draw or form count for more?

With so few Flat races at Clonmel, the draw figures are too thin to outweigh a horse's form. Read the race count on each row before giving the stall any weight.

How often are the Clonmel draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseClonmel course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseClonmel racecardsThe next meeting's full cardThurles draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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