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Kempton draw bias: inner and outer loops on the Polytrack

At Kempton over 1m, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (1,103 races), middle draws 35.5% and high draws 32.7%, against 30.1%, 33.6% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: moderate. Every trip and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Kempton declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 14 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Moderate
Rating on the most-run trip
6f
Trip where the draw stands out most
3,898
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 32.0% v 30.1%

At Kempton over 1m, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32.0% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (1,103 races), middle draws 35.5% and high draws 32.7%, against 30.1%, 33.6% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: moderate. The clearest effect is over 6f, where the low third has won 40.4% of 767 races against 29.7% by chance (strong).Sample: 1,103 races · Window: 6 January 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Kempton draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll field sizes3,89842,25335.0%30.0%35.0%33.7%30.3%36.4%31.9%28.2%23.8%27.7%Low +5.0 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll field sizes6155936.1%29.9%26.2%33.0%37.7%37.1%38.7%33.9%26.9%32.7%Low +6.2 pts0.444Weak or none
5f8 to 11 runners6155936.1%29.9%26.2%33.0%37.7%37.1%38.7%33.9%26.9%32.7%Low +6.2 pts0.444Weak or none
6fAll field sizes7677,79640.4%29.7%34.8%33.9%24.9%36.4%36.7%30.3%23.0%29.5%Low +10.7 pts<0.001Strong
6f8 to 11 runners6256,09238.2%28.9%35.8%34.0%26.1%37.1%38.2%31.7%24.2%30.8%Low +9.3 pts<0.001Strong
6f12 to 15 runners1421,70450.0%33.3%30.3%33.3%19.7%33.3%32.2%25.0%18.0%25.0%Low +16.7 pts<0.001Strong
7fAll field sizes1,01111,15035.0%30.1%35.7%33.6%29.6%36.4%30.9%27.5%23.9%27.2%Low +4.9 pts<0.001Strong
7f8 to 11 runners5625,37832.2%29.1%35.6%34.1%32.6%36.7%34.9%31.8%28.3%31.3%Low +3.1 pts0.089Weak or none
7f12 to 15 runners4495,77238.5%31.2%35.9%32.9%25.8%35.9%27.5%23.5%19.7%23.3%Low +7.3 pts<0.001Strong
1mAll field sizes1,10312,32732.0%30.1%35.5%33.6%32.7%36.3%29.7%28.0%23.5%26.8%Low +1.9 pts0.042Moderate
1m8 to 11 runners5845,60728.8%29.3%36.5%33.9%34.9%36.8%34.1%33.1%27.6%31.2%Middle +2.6 pts0.426Weak or none
1m12 to 15 runners5186,70435.7%31.0%34.4%33.2%30.3%35.7%26.3%23.6%20.1%23.2%Low +4.7 pts0.017Moderate
1m2fAll field sizes3538428.6%28.9%25.7%34.8%45.7%36.3%31.3%27.1%24.5%27.3%High +9.4 pts0.428Not enough data
1m2f8 to 11 runners2018840.0%27.5%25.0%35.7%35.0%36.7%46.2%28.4%24.6%31.9%Low +12.5 pts0.409Not enough data
1m3fAll field sizes3173,53932.2%30.0%36.3%33.4%32.2%36.6%30.1%28.0%23.3%26.9%Middle +2.9 pts0.224Weak or none
1m3f8 to 11 runners1691,61334.9%29.1%28.4%33.8%36.7%37.1%37.0%29.2%29.0%31.4%Low +5.8 pts0.179Weak or none
1m3f12 to 15 runners1471,91028.6%30.9%45.6%33.0%27.2%36.1%24.4%27.1%18.4%23.1%Middle +12.6 pts0.005Strong
1m4fAll field sizes4074,44731.7%29.9%35.9%33.9%32.4%36.3%31.3%27.1%24.7%27.5%Middle +2.0 pts0.269Weak or none
1m4f8 to 11 runners2302,16232.6%28.9%35.2%34.4%32.2%36.7%37.5%31.6%27.9%31.9%Low +3.7 pts0.294Weak or none
1m4f12 to 15 runners1772,28530.5%31.1%36.7%33.2%32.8%35.7%25.7%22.8%21.6%23.2%Middle +3.5 pts0.568Weak or none
2mAll field sizes1972,05142.1%29.7%29.4%34.0%28.4%36.3%35.2%26.5%26.1%28.8%Low +12.4 pts<0.001Strong
2m8 to 11 runners1351,25140.7%29.1%26.7%34.5%32.6%36.4%37.3%29.8%31.1%32.4%Low +11.6 pts0.010Strong
2m12 to 15 runners6280045.2%31.1%35.5%33.0%19.4%35.9%32.3%21.2%18.1%23.2%Low +14.1 pts0.012Moderate

Flat races at Kempton with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 6 January 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Kempton draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances3,89835.0%35.0%30.3%30.0%33.7%36.4%Strong94034.7%37.1%28.4%StrongHolding
5f6136.1%26.2%37.7%29.9%33.0%37.1%Weak or none250.0%50.0%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f76740.4%34.8%24.9%29.7%33.9%36.4%Strong19539.5%35.4%25.1%StrongHolding
7f1,01135.0%35.7%29.6%30.1%33.6%36.4%Strong26033.8%39.6%26.9%StrongHolding
1m1,10332.0%35.5%32.7%30.1%33.6%36.3%Moderate27333.3%36.6%30.4%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m2f3528.6%25.7%45.7%28.9%34.8%36.3%Not enough data366.7%33.3%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m3f31732.2%36.3%32.2%30.0%33.4%36.6%Weak or none8432.1%36.9%31.0%Weak or noneHolding
1m4f40731.7%35.9%32.4%29.9%33.9%36.3%Weak or none7828.2%42.3%29.5%Weak or noneStronger lately
2m19742.1%29.4%28.4%29.7%34.0%36.3%Strong4540.0%24.4%35.6%Weak or noneHolding

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Kempton stall by stall at each distance

5f1591423.7%11.0%49.2%32.9%+16.2
5f26046.7%11.0%31.7%32.9%-1.2
5f35958.5%10.9%35.6%32.8%+2.8
5f45858.6%10.9%34.5%32.8%+1.7
5f560610.0%11.0%36.7%33.0%+3.7
5f65747.0%10.9%29.8%32.7%-2.9
5f75735.3%10.9%22.8%32.7%-9.9
5f8591016.9%10.9%30.5%32.8%-2.3
5f956814.3%10.9%28.6%32.7%-4.1
6f17399713.1%10.0%36.1%30.0%+6.2
6f273310013.6%10.0%37.7%29.9%+7.7
6f37389713.1%10.0%36.0%30.0%+6.1
6f47379813.3%10.0%36.9%30.0%+6.9
6f5725689.4%10.0%30.1%30.0%+0.1
6f67307610.4%10.0%33.2%29.9%+3.2
6f7740668.9%10.0%26.8%30.0%-3.2
6f8732466.3%10.0%23.0%29.9%-7.0
6f9655467.0%9.7%24.3%29.2%-5.0
6f10544315.7%9.4%19.1%28.3%-9.2
6f11412276.6%9.1%18.9%27.3%-8.3
6f12311165.1%9.0%18.0%27.0%-8.9
7f196610210.6%9.3%30.8%28.0%+2.8
7f297211511.8%9.3%33.7%28.0%+5.7
7f39629710.1%9.3%31.3%28.0%+3.3
7f496610711.1%9.3%30.7%27.9%+2.8
7f59709710.0%9.3%30.2%28.0%+2.2
7f697311511.8%9.3%29.3%28.0%+1.3
7f7968808.3%9.3%25.6%27.9%-2.3
7f8955838.7%9.3%28.0%27.9%+0.1
7f9902667.3%9.1%22.6%27.4%-4.8
7f10774435.6%8.7%23.1%26.2%-3.1
7f11613477.7%8.3%21.5%25.0%-3.4
7f12488275.5%8.0%21.3%24.1%-2.8
7f13384225.7%7.8%16.9%23.4%-6.5
7f14257135.1%7.7%14.4%23.0%-8.6
1m11,0641059.9%9.2%29.8%27.7%+2.1
1m21,053969.1%9.2%32.5%27.7%+4.8
1m31,0551049.9%9.2%29.7%27.6%+2.1
1m41,06310610.0%9.2%29.4%27.6%+1.7
1m51,06611010.3%9.2%28.8%27.7%+1.1
1m61,06411510.8%9.2%31.3%27.7%+3.6
1m71,0581019.5%9.2%28.8%27.6%+1.3
1m81,053999.4%9.2%26.1%27.6%-1.5
1m9993798.0%9.0%23.7%27.0%-3.4
1m10854505.9%8.6%20.8%25.9%-5.0
1m11707649.1%8.3%21.9%24.9%-3.0
1m12562335.9%7.9%20.1%23.8%-3.7
1m13416204.8%7.7%16.3%23.0%-6.7
1m14314247.6%7.5%19.1%22.5%-3.4
1m3f1307278.8%9.2%25.7%27.7%-2.0
1m3f2310289.0%9.2%31.6%27.7%+3.9
1m3f33083812.3%9.3%37.7%27.8%+9.9
1m3f4308278.8%9.3%26.3%27.8%-1.5
1m3f52993311.0%9.2%31.4%27.6%+3.8
1m3f63093912.6%9.3%31.7%27.8%+3.9
1m3f7305237.5%9.2%25.9%27.7%-1.8
1m3f8298268.7%9.3%28.2%27.8%+0.4
1m3f9277269.4%8.9%22.0%26.8%-4.8
1m3f10239156.3%8.6%22.6%25.9%-3.3
1m3f11202136.4%8.2%20.3%24.7%-4.4
1m3f12161127.5%7.9%21.7%23.6%-1.8
1m3f1312386.5%7.6%15.4%22.9%-7.4
1m3f148733.4%7.5%13.8%22.6%-8.8
1m4f13924110.5%9.4%32.4%28.3%+4.1
1m4f23934310.9%9.5%32.6%28.4%+4.1
1m4f3387348.8%9.5%32.0%28.4%+3.7
1m4f4388359.0%9.5%29.4%28.4%+1.0
1m4f5394379.4%9.5%28.9%28.4%+0.5
1m4f63884411.3%9.4%27.3%28.3%-1.0
1m4f73914110.5%9.5%27.9%28.4%-0.5
1m4f8385369.4%9.5%25.2%28.4%-3.2
1m4f9355236.5%9.2%25.9%27.5%-1.5
1m4f10291196.5%8.6%22.3%25.9%-3.6
1m4f11246156.1%8.3%22.4%24.8%-2.5
1m4f12190178.9%7.9%22.1%23.7%-1.6
1m4f13137128.8%7.7%19.7%23.1%-3.4
1m4f14110109.1%7.6%20.9%22.9%-2.0
2m11892513.2%10.0%36.0%29.9%+6.1
2m21932211.4%9.9%33.2%29.8%+3.4
2m31912513.1%9.9%34.6%29.8%+4.7
2m41902211.6%9.9%32.1%29.8%+2.3
2m51902111.1%9.9%28.9%29.8%-0.9
2m6192178.9%10.0%30.7%29.9%+0.9
2m7191178.9%9.9%27.7%29.8%-2.0
2m8193189.3%9.9%25.4%29.8%-4.4
2m9156138.3%9.4%30.1%28.2%+2.0
2m1012275.7%8.8%24.6%26.5%-1.9
2m119355.4%8.4%21.5%25.3%-3.7
2m127011.4%8.0%8.6%23.9%-15.3

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Kempton draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances2,76435.3%30.0%35.1%33.7%29.8%36.3%32.1%28.7%23.9%
5f2729.6%29.3%18.5%33.5%51.9%37.2%36.1%32.1%31.9%
6f54242.4%29.7%33.6%33.8%24.2%36.4%36.9%30.0%23.4%
7f74033.1%30.1%36.4%33.6%30.7%36.3%30.8%28.2%24.2%
1m80333.4%30.1%35.4%33.6%31.5%36.3%30.1%28.7%23.3%
1m3f22931.9%30.0%38.0%33.4%31.0%36.6%30.4%28.8%23.6%
1m4f27631.9%29.9%36.2%33.9%31.9%36.1%32.1%27.4%24.7%
2m13445.5%29.5%29.9%34.1%24.6%36.4%36.8%27.8%24.3%

Flat races at Kempton with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Kempton draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low2,76435.3%30.0%10.9%8,93697732.1%
Middle2,76435.1%33.7%9.7%9,97797028.7%
High2,76429.8%36.3%7.6%10,78682323.9%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Kempton draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances3,42834.2%29.6%34.7%33.4%31.2%37.1%
5f4831.3%28.2%22.9%33.4%45.8%38.4%
6f66741.8%29.4%32.5%33.4%25.8%37.1%
7f85132.4%29.9%36.1%33.3%31.6%36.8%
1m94632.6%29.7%35.1%33.3%32.6%37.0%
1m2f2420.8%29.1%33.3%33.4%45.8%37.4%
1m3f30330.0%29.3%37.0%33.3%34.0%37.4%
1m4f38229.8%29.4%36.4%33.4%33.8%37.2%
2m20741.1%28.9%31.4%33.4%27.5%37.6%

Every Flat race at Kempton with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Kempton draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances66429.5%27.9%33.3%32.0%37.3%40.1%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances1,74734.7%29.1%34.3%34.0%31.2%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances1,01636.4%31.4%36.5%33.1%27.4%35.5%
3 to 7 runners5f2133.3%26.7%28.6%33.4%38.1%39.9%
8 to 11 runners5f2729.6%29.3%18.5%33.5%51.9%37.2%
3 to 7 runners6f12539.2%28.2%28.0%31.7%32.8%40.1%
8 to 11 runners6f44239.8%28.9%34.8%34.0%25.6%37.1%
12 to 15 runners6f10054.0%33.3%28.0%33.3%18.0%33.3%
3 to 7 runners7f11127.9%28.6%34.2%31.6%37.8%39.8%
8 to 11 runners7f43231.3%29.2%36.3%34.1%32.6%36.7%
12 to 15 runners7f30835.7%31.4%36.4%32.9%27.9%35.8%
3 to 7 runners1m14328.0%27.3%33.6%31.8%38.5%40.9%
8 to 11 runners1m45030.4%29.4%36.7%33.9%33.1%36.8%
12 to 15 runners1m35337.1%31.0%33.7%33.3%29.5%35.7%
3 to 7 runners1m3f7424.3%27.4%33.8%33.0%43.2%39.6%
8 to 11 runners1m3f13235.6%29.2%30.3%33.7%34.1%37.1%
12 to 15 runners1m3f9626.0%31.1%49.0%33.0%27.1%36.0%
3 to 7 runners1m4f10624.5%28.1%36.8%32.0%38.7%39.9%
8 to 11 runners1m4f16135.4%29.0%31.7%34.5%32.9%36.5%
12 to 15 runners1m4f11527.0%31.2%42.6%33.2%30.4%35.6%
3 to 7 runners2m7332.9%27.9%34.2%32.3%32.9%39.8%
8 to 11 runners2m9545.3%28.9%26.3%34.6%28.4%36.6%
12 to 15 runners2m3946.2%31.1%38.5%32.9%15.4%36.0%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Kempton draw by going, 8 or more runners

AWAll distances2,76435.3%30.0%29.8%36.3%35.1%
AW5f2729.6%29.3%51.9%37.2%18.5%
AW6f54242.4%29.7%24.2%36.4%33.6%
AW7f74033.1%30.1%30.7%36.3%36.4%
AW1m80333.4%30.1%31.5%36.3%35.4%
AW1m3f22931.9%30.0%31.0%36.6%38.0%
AW1m4f27631.9%29.9%31.9%36.1%36.2%
AW2m13445.5%29.5%24.6%36.4%29.9%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Kempton individual stalls, most-run distances

7f1711679.4%9.4%30.4%
7f27178411.7%9.4%35.1%
7f36987210.3%9.4%29.8%
7f47057310.4%9.4%30.8%
7f57117610.7%9.4%30.5%
7f67088812.4%9.4%30.5%
7f7712608.4%9.4%25.4%
7f8698618.7%9.4%29.1%
7f9660487.3%9.2%22.4%
7f10560346.1%8.8%23.2%
7f11430347.9%8.4%21.9%
7f12341175.0%8.1%20.2%
7f13258207.8%7.8%17.8%
7f1416374.3%7.7%14.7%
1m17758210.6%9.3%30.5%
1m2769739.5%9.3%32.2%
1m37648110.6%9.3%30.4%
1m4769749.6%9.3%29.1%
1m57778010.3%9.3%29.6%
1m67808811.3%9.3%32.7%
1m7773719.2%9.3%28.3%
1m8765759.8%9.3%26.7%
1m9721588.0%9.1%24.3%
1m10612304.9%8.7%20.3%
1m11497469.3%8.3%22.7%
1m12389205.1%8.0%20.1%
1m13279134.7%7.7%15.1%
1m14209146.7%7.5%16.3%

The two most-run distances at Kempton in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Kempton 1m: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 32%Since 2016 Middle: 35.5%Since 2016 High: 32.7%Since 2024 Low: 33.3%Since 2024 Middle: 36.6%Since 2024 High: 30.4%Expected by chance Low: 30.1%Expected by chance Middle: 33.6%Expected by chance High: 36.3%

Win % of races by Draw third

Kempton 1m win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Stall 12Stall 13Stall 14Win % Stall 1: 10.6%10.6%Win % Stall 2: 9.5%9.5%Win % Stall 3: 10.6%10.6%Win % Stall 4: 9.6%9.6%Win % Stall 5: 10.3%10.3%Win % Stall 6: 11.3%11.3%Win % Stall 7: 9.2%9.2%Win % Stall 8: 9.8%9.8%Win % Stall 9: 8%8%Win % Stall 10: 4.9%4.9%Win % Stall 11: 9.3%9.3%Win % Stall 12: 5.1%5.1%Win % Stall 13: 4.7%4.7%Win % Stall 14: 6.7%6.7%Expected by chance Stall 1: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 2: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 3: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 4: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 5: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 6: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 7: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 8: 9.3%9.3%Expected by chance Stall 9: 9.1%9.1%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8.7%8.7%Expected by chance Stall 11: 8.3%8.3%Expected by chance Stall 12: 8%8%Expected by chance Stall 13: 7.7%7.7%Expected by chance Stall 14: 7.5%7.5%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Kempton and their draw

14 Oct 26Hayate (IRE) silksHayate (IRE)5Middle86f1.83
14 Oct 26Ablon (FR) silksAblon (FR)9High91m3f5.00
14 Oct 26War Hawk (IRE) silksWar Hawk (IRE)6Middle131m3f6.50
14 Oct 26Fast Track Harry (GB) silksFast Track Harry (GB)1Low116f2.00
14 Oct 26Siwa Oasis (IRE) silksSiwa Oasis (IRE)6Middle127f5.50
14 Oct 26Keithaar (IRE) silksKeithaar (IRE)7High107f4.33
14 Oct 26Mertoun (FR) silksMertoun (FR)4Middle91m3.25
14 Oct 26Gunfighter (IRE) silksGunfighter (IRE)4Middle101m2.00
14 Oct 26Arctic Tsar (IRE) silksArctic Tsar (IRE)1Low71m3.00
12 Oct 26Showcasing Glory (IRE) silksShowcasing Glory (IRE)11High117f3.25
12 Oct 26Silky Robin (IRE) silksSilky Robin (IRE)6Middle106f4.50
12 Oct 26Niffler (GER) silksNiffler (GER)8High92m1.91
12 Oct 26That Darn Cantor (GB) silksThat Darn Cantor (GB)4Middle61m4f5.50
12 Oct 26Organ (GB) silksOrgan (GB)2Low141m5.50
12 Oct 26Rhythm Of My Heart (GB) silksRhythm Of My Heart (GB)3Low101m1.18
12 Oct 26Wadooda (GB) silksWadooda (GB)7High81m1.62
12 Oct 26One Of The Boys (IRE) silksOne Of The Boys (IRE)8High76f5.00
12 Oct 26Twilight Fox (GB) silksTwilight Fox (GB)4Middle117f101.00
9 Oct 26Bidsta (IRE) silksBidsta (IRE)6High86f1.30
9 Oct 26Phoenix Of Dreams (IRE) silksPhoenix Of Dreams (IRE)6Middle117f8.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Kempton in the data with a full draw.

Kempton win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m3f1m4f2mLow third 5f: 29.6%Low third 6f: 42.4%Low third 7f: 33.1%Low third 1m: 33.4%Low third 1m3f: 31.9%Low third 1m4f: 31.9%Low third 2m: 45.5%Middle third 5f: 18.5%Middle third 6f: 33.6%Middle third 7f: 36.4%Middle third 1m: 35.4%Middle third 1m3f: 38%Middle third 1m4f: 36.2%Middle third 2m: 29.9%High third 5f: 51.9%High third 6f: 24.2%High third 7f: 30.7%High third 1m: 31.5%High third 1m3f: 31%High third 1m4f: 31.9%High third 2m: 24.6%

Win % of races by Distance

Kempton win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
20%30%40%50%60%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 41.8%Low third 2020: 36.9%Low third 2021: 35.4%Low third 2022: 32.2%Low third 2023: 30.9%Low third 2024: 33.6%Low third 2025: 36.5%Low third 2026: 33.9%33.9%Middle third 2019: 31.4%Middle third 2020: 31.1%Middle third 2021: 35.1%Middle third 2022: 36.8%Middle third 2023: 36.6%Middle third 2024: 36.9%Middle third 2025: 38%Middle third 2026: 36.2%36.2%High third 2019: 27%High third 2020: 32.2%High third 2021: 30.1%High third 2022: 31%High third 2023: 32.6%High third 2024: 30%High third 2025: 25.5%High third 2026: 29.9%29.9%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Kempton?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Kempton, the draw rates moderate from 1,103 races. It stands out most over 6f, where the low third has won 40.4% against 29.7% by chance (rated strong).

Is a wide draw worse in bigger Kempton fields?

Kempton's field size table splits races into 3 to 7, 8 to 11 and 12 to 15 runners, with thousands of races in all. In both bigger bands the low third has run above chance and the high third below it.

How does field size change the draw at Kempton?

Going plays no part in the matrix on the Kempton all-weather, so each trip is split by 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners instead, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Kempton draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m the check reads no clear lean in either period, from 273 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Kempton?

Over 1m, the most-run trip at Kempton, the draw rates moderate, with low draws winning 32% of 1,103 races against 30.1% by chance. It stands out most over 6f, where the low third has won 40.4% against 29.7% (rated strong).

Which stall is best at Kempton over 5f?

Stall 1 has the best top-three record over 5f at Kempton since 2016, placing in 49.2% of 59 runs against 32.7% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Kempton?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 35% of Kempton races against 30% by chance, and high draws 30.3% against 36.4%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does it matter whether a Kempton race uses the inner or outer loop?

This page does not split Kempton races by loop, but each distance has its own row, and the loops serve different trips. Comparing the distance rows shows where the Kempton draw counts most.

How often are the Kempton draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseKempton course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseKempton racecardsThe next meeting's full cardLingfield draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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