Home / Stats & Records / Chester draw bias
LiveFree dataUpdated every night

Chester draw bias: how much a low stall is worth

At Chester over 7½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (119 races), middle draws 34.5% and high draws 32.8%, against 30.1%, 33.7% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Chester declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 19 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
6f
Trip where the draw stands out most
682
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Low 32.8% v 30.1%

At Chester over 7½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 32.8% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (119 races), middle draws 34.5% and high draws 32.8%, against 30.1%, 33.7% and 36.2% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 6f, where the low third has won 50.0% of 104 races against 29.8% by chance (strong).Sample: 119 races · Window: 4 May 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Chester draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes6826,88738.4%29.5%33.0%34.0%28.6%36.5%34.7%31.2%24.3%29.7%Low +8.9 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll goingAll field sizes8784246.0%28.9%31.0%34.4%23.0%36.7%43.3%30.6%21.7%31.0%Low +17.1 pts0.001Moderate
5fGoodAll field sizes4645050.0%29.2%30.4%34.1%19.6%36.7%44.7%28.1%21.8%30.7%Low +20.8 pts0.005Moderate
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3735540.5%28.8%32.4%34.6%27.0%36.7%40.8%33.6%21.5%31.3%Low +11.7 pts0.251Not enough data
5fAll going8 to 11 runners7873044.9%28.5%29.5%34.5%25.6%37.0%44.5%31.5%23.0%32.1%Low +16.4 pts0.005Moderate
5fGood8 to 11 runners4138751.2%28.9%26.8%34.2%22.0%36.9%48.2%28.0%22.4%31.8%Low +22.3 pts0.006Moderate
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3330636.4%28.3%33.3%34.8%30.3%36.9%39.1%35.8%23.9%32.4%Low +8.1 pts0.558Not enough data
5½fAll goingAll field sizes2120947.6%29.2%28.6%34.3%23.8%36.5%35.5%35.2%21.1%30.1%Low +18.4 pts0.169Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes1041,03350.0%29.8%29.8%33.7%20.2%36.5%35.9%34.3%21.8%30.2%Low +20.2 pts<0.001Strong
6fGoodAll field sizes5453240.7%29.9%29.6%34.0%29.6%36.1%33.1%32.8%26.0%30.5%Low +10.8 pts0.216Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4443961.4%29.4%29.5%33.4%9.1%37.2%40.0%34.9%17.8%30.1%Low +32.0 pts<0.001Moderate
6fAll going8 to 11 runners8680851.2%29.3%27.9%33.8%20.9%36.9%38.4%36.4%22.7%31.9%Low +21.9 pts<0.001Moderate
6fGood8 to 11 runners4440947.7%29.3%22.7%34.1%29.5%36.6%37.5%32.4%28.0%32.3%Low +18.4 pts0.025Moderate
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3735156.8%29.0%32.4%33.5%10.8%37.5%41.2%39.3%17.4%31.6%Low +27.8 pts<0.001Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1031,06238.8%29.8%27.2%34.0%34.0%36.2%34.5%29.2%24.5%29.1%Low +9.0 pts0.114Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes4748631.9%29.7%29.8%33.6%38.3%36.7%37.0%27.8%23.6%29.0%Low +2.2 pts0.856Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5253540.4%29.7%26.9%34.5%32.7%35.8%32.5%29.9%25.7%29.2%Low +10.7 pts0.225Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners7267540.3%28.8%25.0%34.3%34.7%36.8%39.5%30.7%27.3%32.0%Low +11.5 pts0.074Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners3138735.5%32.1%32.3%33.1%32.3%34.8%26.6%26.6%19.3%24.0%Low +3.4 pts0.918Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners3128638.7%28.5%22.6%34.1%38.7%37.4%43.9%27.8%28.0%32.5%Low +10.2 pts0.308Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3836036.8%28.9%28.9%34.8%34.2%36.4%36.5%32.0%27.5%31.7%Low +7.9 pts0.533Not enough data
7½fAll goingAll field sizes1191,23532.8%30.1%34.5%33.7%32.8%36.2%32.2%29.6%25.5%28.9%Low +2.7 pts0.708Weak or none
7½fGoodAll field sizes6265433.9%30.5%37.1%33.9%29.0%35.6%33.0%31.2%21.9%28.4%Low +3.4 pts0.555Weak or none
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4747734.0%29.6%31.9%33.7%34.0%36.7%33.1%27.5%28.6%29.6%Low +4.4 pts0.798Weak or none
7½fAll going8 to 11 runners8883927.3%29.4%38.6%34.0%34.1%36.5%33.6%33.0%28.3%31.5%Middle +4.6 pts0.659Weak or none
7½fAll going12 to 15 runners3038050.0%31.9%23.3%32.9%26.7%35.2%29.8%23.2%18.7%23.7%Low +18.1 pts0.104Not enough data
7½fGood8 to 11 runners4240026.2%29.8%42.9%34.3%31.0%35.9%34.5%33.6%27.1%31.5%Middle +8.6 pts0.502Weak or none
7½fGood12 to 15 runners2025450.0%32.0%25.0%33.0%25.0%35.0%30.9%27.4%13.5%23.6%Low +18.0 pts0.224Not enough data
7½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3836228.9%29.0%36.8%34.1%34.2%37.0%34.3%31.7%29.1%31.5%Middle +2.7 pts0.921Not enough data
1m2½fAll goingAll field sizes9997132.3%29.2%40.4%34.3%27.3%36.6%34.4%31.7%26.5%30.6%Middle +6.1 pts0.153Weak or none
1m2½fGoodAll field sizes4745838.3%29.2%40.4%34.3%21.3%36.5%34.1%33.3%25.7%30.8%Low +9.1 pts0.090Weak or none
1m2½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4847729.2%29.2%41.7%34.1%29.2%36.7%35.0%31.5%25.1%30.2%Middle +7.6 pts0.463Weak or none
1m2½fAll going8 to 11 runners8478132.1%28.7%39.3%34.6%28.6%36.7%35.6%34.9%27.2%32.3%Middle +4.7 pts0.301Weak or none
1m2½fGood8 to 11 runners3935741.0%28.7%35.9%34.6%23.1%36.7%36.9%37.4%25.2%32.8%Low +12.3 pts0.133Not enough data
1m2½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4138826.8%28.8%43.9%34.4%29.3%36.8%34.8%34.6%26.6%31.7%Middle +9.5 pts0.412Weak or none
1m4½fAll goingAll field sizes6358436.5%28.5%27.0%34.5%36.5%37.0%37.5%32.5%28.2%32.4%Low +8.0 pts0.292Weak or none
1m4½fGoodAll field sizes3734837.8%28.3%13.5%34.5%48.6%37.2%36.0%31.1%29.5%31.9%High +11.4 pts0.027Not enough data
1m4½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2522836.0%28.8%44.0%34.4%20.0%36.8%39.4%33.3%27.4%32.9%Middle +9.6 pts0.219Not enough data
1m4½fAll going8 to 11 runners6054236.7%28.2%28.3%34.6%35.0%37.2%37.7%34.4%28.7%33.2%Low +8.5 pts0.322Weak or none
1m4½fGood8 to 11 runners3430638.2%27.9%14.7%34.6%47.1%37.5%36.0%34.3%30.4%33.3%Low +10.3 pts0.050Not enough data
1m4½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2522836.0%28.8%44.0%34.4%20.0%36.8%39.4%33.3%27.4%32.9%Middle +9.6 pts0.219Not enough data
2mAll goingAll field sizes2524028.0%29.4%44.0%34.3%28.0%36.3%26.8%36.6%29.9%31.2%Middle +9.7 pts0.556Not enough data
2mAll going8 to 11 runners2220427.3%28.8%40.9%34.5%31.8%36.7%28.8%37.1%30.7%32.4%Middle +6.4 pts0.807Not enough data
2m2½fAll goingAll field sizes2029235.0%30.8%40.0%33.3%25.0%35.9%30.0%18.6%14.3%20.5%Middle +6.7 pts0.591Not enough data

Flat races at Chester with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 4 May 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Chester draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances68238.4%33.0%28.6%29.5%34.0%36.5%Strong22336.3%35.0%28.7%ModerateWeaker lately
5f8746.0%31.0%23.0%28.9%34.4%36.7%Moderate2846.4%28.6%25.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
5½f2147.6%28.6%23.8%29.2%34.3%36.5%Not enough data540.0%40.0%20.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f10450.0%29.8%20.2%29.8%33.7%36.5%Strong4443.2%31.8%25.0%Weak or noneWeaker lately
7f10338.8%27.2%34.0%29.8%34.0%36.2%Weak or none3724.3%29.7%45.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races
7½f11932.8%34.5%32.8%30.1%33.7%36.2%Weak or none3125.8%38.7%35.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2½f9932.3%40.4%27.3%29.2%34.3%36.6%Weak or none2832.1%50.0%17.9%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m4½f6336.5%27.0%36.5%28.5%34.5%37.0%Weak or none2231.8%31.8%36.4%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m2528.0%44.0%28.0%29.4%34.3%36.3%Not enough data1741.2%35.3%23.5%Not enough dataToo few recent races
2m2½f2035.0%40.0%25.0%30.8%33.3%35.9%Not enough data650.0%50.0%0.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Chester stall by stall at each distance

5f1851214.1%10.5%49.4%31.5%+17.9
5f2801721.3%10.6%42.5%31.7%+10.8
5f3841416.7%10.5%38.1%31.5%+6.6
5f48378.4%10.6%33.7%31.7%+2.1
5f583910.8%10.5%34.9%31.5%+3.5
5f68467.1%10.6%27.4%31.7%-4.3
5f77956.3%10.6%22.8%31.8%-9.0
5f87345.5%10.5%21.9%31.4%-9.5
5f962812.9%10.1%32.3%30.3%+2.0
5f105112.0%9.8%7.8%29.4%-21.5
6f11022120.6%10.3%38.2%30.9%+7.3
6f21032120.4%10.3%39.8%30.9%+8.9
6f310398.7%10.3%35.0%30.8%+4.1
6f4991010.1%10.3%34.3%31.0%+3.4
6f5981010.2%10.3%33.7%30.9%+2.7
6f610465.8%10.3%34.6%30.9%+3.7
6f79555.3%10.3%25.3%30.8%-5.5
6f8921010.9%10.3%26.1%30.8%-4.7
6f97856.4%9.8%19.2%29.4%-10.2
6f106134.9%9.6%29.5%28.7%+0.8
7f11021110.8%10.0%32.4%30.0%+2.4
7f2991919.2%9.9%40.4%29.8%+10.6
7f3991010.1%10.0%33.3%30.0%+3.4
7f4971212.4%9.9%41.2%29.8%+11.4
7f59133.3%10.0%20.9%29.9%-9.0
7f69744.1%9.9%25.8%29.7%-4.0
7f79688.3%9.9%27.1%29.8%-2.7
7f8961515.6%10.0%31.3%30.0%+1.3
7f98344.8%9.6%21.7%28.7%-7.0
7f107057.1%9.2%27.1%27.7%-0.5
7½f1113108.8%9.9%33.6%29.7%+4.0
7½f21131614.2%9.9%33.6%29.6%+4.0
7½f3116108.6%9.9%31.0%29.6%+1.4
7½f41121412.5%9.9%30.4%29.6%+0.8
7½f5114119.6%9.9%36.8%29.7%+7.2
7½f61091614.7%9.9%31.2%29.6%+1.6
7½f71121210.7%9.9%25.9%29.6%-3.7
7½f811054.5%9.9%29.1%29.7%-0.6
7½f99888.2%9.6%25.5%28.8%-3.3
7½f108078.8%9.1%23.8%27.4%-3.6
7½f116734.5%8.9%13.4%26.7%-13.3
1m2½f19466.4%10.4%30.9%31.2%-0.3
1m2½f29399.7%10.4%38.7%31.3%+7.4
1m2½f3911718.7%10.4%39.6%31.1%+8.5
1m2½f4951212.6%10.5%33.7%31.4%+2.3
1m2½f5901516.7%10.4%32.2%31.3%+0.9
1m2½f690910.0%10.4%36.7%31.2%+5.4
1m2½f79266.5%10.4%20.7%31.3%-10.6
1m2½f89177.7%10.5%22.0%31.4%-9.5
1m2½f977810.4%10.0%26.0%30.1%-4.1
1m2½f106369.5%9.7%31.7%29.0%+2.7
1m4½f159915.3%11.0%49.2%33.0%+16.2
1m4½f2591016.9%11.0%30.5%33.0%-2.5
1m4½f35559.1%11.0%29.1%32.9%-3.8
1m4½f46058.3%11.0%41.7%33.0%+8.7
1m4½f559813.6%11.0%42.4%32.9%+9.4
1m4½f660610.0%11.0%30.0%33.0%-3.0
1m4½f76158.2%11.1%32.8%33.2%-0.4
1m4½f85858.6%11.0%22.4%33.1%-10.7

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Chester draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances47237.9%29.5%34.3%34.1%27.8%36.4%33.9%31.5%24.3%
5f5637.5%28.5%37.5%34.7%25.0%36.8%37.7%34.1%23.9%
6f7853.8%29.8%26.9%33.7%19.2%36.5%35.0%34.4%21.8%
7f7238.9%29.8%26.4%34.2%34.7%36.0%34.4%28.8%23.6%
7½f7833.3%30.2%33.3%33.5%33.3%36.4%32.4%27.2%26.9%
1m2½f6934.8%29.3%39.1%34.3%26.1%36.4%34.8%31.9%25.4%
1m4½f4431.8%28.4%34.1%34.8%34.1%36.8%35.6%33.8%27.8%
2m2231.8%29.5%40.9%34.3%27.3%36.1%27.4%36.6%30.7%

Flat races at Chester with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Chester draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low47237.9%29.5%12.6%1,42317933.9%
Middle47234.3%34.1%10.0%1,62116231.5%
High47227.8%36.4%7.5%1,74113124.3%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Chester draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances76036.3%29.0%34.5%33.3%29.2%37.7%
5f9238.0%28.2%37.0%33.5%25.0%38.3%
6f12148.8%29.1%28.9%33.4%22.3%37.4%
7f11637.9%29.2%25.0%33.0%37.1%37.8%
7½f10929.4%29.5%35.8%32.9%34.9%37.6%
1m2½f12135.5%29.0%38.8%33.5%25.6%37.5%
1m4½f8333.7%28.1%37.3%33.5%28.9%38.4%
1m6½f3040.0%29.8%26.7%31.9%33.3%38.3%
2m3423.5%29.0%41.2%33.2%35.3%37.8%

Every Flat race at Chester with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Chester draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances28833.7%28.3%34.7%31.9%31.6%39.8%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances36137.4%28.8%35.2%34.4%27.4%36.8%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances10540.0%31.9%31.4%33.0%28.6%35.1%
3 to 7 runners5f3638.9%27.7%36.1%31.6%25.0%40.7%
8 to 11 runners5f5139.2%28.1%33.3%34.9%27.5%37.0%
3 to 7 runners6f4339.5%27.9%32.6%33.0%27.9%39.1%
8 to 11 runners6f6354.0%29.3%27.0%33.7%19.0%36.9%
3 to 7 runners7f4436.4%28.3%22.7%31.0%40.9%40.7%
8 to 11 runners7f4639.1%28.6%26.1%34.8%34.8%36.6%
12 to 15 runners7f2638.5%32.0%26.9%33.1%34.6%34.9%
3 to 7 runners7½f3119.4%27.7%41.9%31.6%38.7%40.8%
8 to 11 runners7½f5529.1%29.6%38.2%33.7%32.7%36.7%
12 to 15 runners7½f2245.5%31.5%22.7%32.8%31.8%35.6%
3 to 7 runners1m2½f5236.5%28.6%38.5%32.5%25.0%38.9%
8 to 11 runners1m2½f5635.7%28.8%37.5%34.6%26.8%36.6%
3 to 7 runners1m4½f3935.9%27.9%41.0%32.0%23.1%40.1%
8 to 11 runners1m4½f4131.7%28.0%36.6%34.9%31.7%37.1%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Chester draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances22437.9%29.6%29.5%36.3%32.6%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances10835.2%29.5%25.9%36.5%38.9%
SoftAll distances10238.2%29.4%27.5%36.4%34.3%
HeavyAll distances2045.0%28.4%15.0%37.7%40.0%
Good5f2740.7%28.5%22.2%36.8%37.0%
Good6f4143.9%30.3%29.3%36.1%26.8%
Good7f3336.4%30.1%39.4%36.5%24.2%
Good to soft or yielding7f2040.0%30.1%30.0%35.2%30.0%
Good7½f4129.3%30.7%36.6%35.8%34.1%
Good1m2½f3336.4%29.2%24.2%36.2%39.4%
Good1m4½f2236.4%28.4%45.5%36.7%18.2%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Chester 7½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%10%20%30%40%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 32.8%Since 2016 Middle: 34.5%Since 2016 High: 32.8%Since 2024 Low: 25.8%Since 2024 Middle: 38.7%Since 2024 High: 35.5%Expected by chance Low: 30.1%Expected by chance Middle: 33.7%Expected by chance High: 36.2%

Win % of races by Draw third

Chester win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f7½f1m2½f1m4½f2mLow third 5f: 37.5%Low third 6f: 53.8%Low third 7f: 38.9%Low third 7½f: 33.3%Low third 1m2½f: 34.8%Low third 1m4½f: 31.8%Low third 2m: 31.8%Middle third 5f: 37.5%Middle third 6f: 26.9%Middle third 7f: 26.4%Middle third 7½f: 33.3%Middle third 1m2½f: 39.1%Middle third 1m4½f: 34.1%Middle third 2m: 40.9%High third 5f: 25%High third 6f: 19.2%High third 7f: 34.7%High third 7½f: 33.3%High third 1m2½f: 26.1%High third 1m4½f: 34.1%High third 2m: 27.3%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Chester and their draw

19 Sep 26Carthusian (IRE) silksCarthusian (IRE)1Low101m6½f10.00
19 Sep 26Andesite (GB) silksAndesite (GB)2Low87f6.50
19 Sep 26Copper Knight (IRE) silksCopper Knight (IRE)2Low115f3.25
19 Sep 26Miraculous (IRE) silksMiraculous (IRE)1Low106f3.75
19 Sep 26Patagonia Girl (GB) silksPatagonia Girl (GB)5Middle91m2½f3.00
19 Sep 26Crazy Cubana (IRE) silksCrazy Cubana (IRE)8High117f17.00
19 Sep 26Rhodes Runner (IRE) silksRhodes Runner (IRE)4Middle86f6.00
12 Sep 26Nibras Gold (IRE) silksNibras Gold (IRE)3Low111m4½f3.75
12 Sep 26Crazee Icon (GB) silksCrazee Icon (GB)5Middle97½f3.25
12 Sep 26Vidmiyr (IRE) silksVidmiyr (IRE)6High87½f5.50
12 Sep 26Shafdar (IRE) silksShafdar (IRE)3Low101m2½f2.50
12 Sep 26This Moment (IRE) silksThis Moment (IRE)1Low95f3.25
12 Sep 26Regency Royal (GER) silksRegency Royal (GER)3Middle87f4.33
12 Sep 26Pole Star (GB) silksPole Star (GB)4Low102m12.00
12 Sep 26Plage De Havre (GB) silksPlage De Havre (GB)1Low61m4½f4.00
11 Sep 26Cascade Hall (IRE) silksCascade Hall (IRE)9Middle122m3.00
11 Sep 26Ghisa (IRE) silksGhisa (IRE)2Low137f4.50
11 Sep 26King Of Thunder (GB) silksKing Of Thunder (GB)10High127f11.00
11 Sep 26Baker Blue (GB) silksBaker Blue (GB)7High105f4.00
11 Sep 26Meet Me In Meraki (GB) silksMeet Me In Meraki (GB)4Middle111m2½f4.33

The 20 most recent Flat races at Chester in the data with a full draw.

Chester win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 43.5%Low third 2020: 48.3%Low third 2021: 38.5%Low third 2022: 40.8%Low third 2023: 29.8%Low third 2024: 34.3%Low third 2025: 36.4%Low third 2026: 38%38%Middle third 2019: 35.5%Middle third 2020: 31%Middle third 2021: 44.2%Middle third 2022: 22.4%Middle third 2023: 33.3%Middle third 2024: 32.8%Middle third 2025: 31.2%Middle third 2026: 40.5%40.5%High third 2019: 21%High third 2020: 20.7%High third 2021: 17.3%High third 2022: 36.7%High third 2023: 36.8%High third 2024: 32.8%High third 2025: 32.5%High third 2026: 21.5%21.5%

Win % of races by Year

Put the draw beside the Chester card

Members get every Chester racecard with RWS scores, market moves across 20+ bookmakers, Angles and FormLines+ on each runner, to read alongside these draw thirds.

Start free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

Is there a draw bias at Chester?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Chester, the draw rates weak or none from 119 races. It stands out most over 6f, where the low third has won 50% against 29.8% by chance (rated strong).

Why does the tight Chester circuit favour the inside?

Chester turns almost the whole way round, so horses drawn low can hold the rail while wide runners cover extra ground. The low third's record against chance in the table below shows how much that has been worth.

How do going and field size change the draw at Chester?

The bias matrix gives every Chester trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Chester draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 7½f the check reads too few recent races, from 31 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Chester?

Over 7½f, the most-run trip at Chester, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 32.8% of 119 races against 30.1% by chance. It stands out most over 6f, where the low third has won 50% against 29.8% (rated strong).

Which stall is best at Chester over 5f?

Stall 1 has the best top-three record over 5f at Chester since 2016, placing in 49.4% of 85 runs against 31% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Chester?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 38.4% of Chester races against 29.5% by chance, and high draws 28.6% against 36.5%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter in the Chester Cup?

The Chester Cup is a long-distance handicap, and the staying rows in the distance table show whether the draw still counts over that sort of trip. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden, so staying trips appear only when the sample is big enough.

How often are the Chester draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseChester course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseChester racecardsThe next meeting's full cardChester May MeetingFestival results and recordsChester Cup roll of honourPast winners of the race

Go deeper before the next race.

Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.

  • 14racecard tabs per race
  • 20+bookmaker prices side by side
  • Trackeralerts when your horses are declared

30-day free trial

£0today

Start my 30-day free trial

By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.

£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.

Updated