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Thirsk draw bias: high stalls in the straight sprints

At Thirsk over 6f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.2% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (312 races), middle draws 33.3% and high draws 39.7%, against 30.7%, 33.4% and 36% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Thirsk declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 14 September 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m4f
Trip where the draw stands out most
976
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 39.7% v 36.0%

At Thirsk over 6f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 27.2% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (312 races), middle draws 33.3% and high draws 39.7%, against 30.7%, 33.4% and 36.0% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. The clearest effect is over 1m4f, where the middle third has won 41.5% of 94 races against 33.8% by chance (moderate).Sample: 312 races · Window: 16 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Thirsk draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes97611,20823.9%30.3%34.1%33.6%42.3%36.1%23.0%26.4%28.6%26.1%High +6.2 pts<0.001Strong
5fAll goingAll field sizes1701,84425.3%29.9%31.2%33.7%43.5%36.3%24.7%25.4%32.4%27.7%High +7.2 pts0.137Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes6162418.0%29.7%29.5%33.6%52.5%36.7%27.4%27.8%32.8%29.3%High +15.8 pts0.027Moderate
5fGoodAll field sizes5663433.9%29.9%37.5%33.9%28.6%36.1%23.6%25.2%30.1%26.5%Low +4.0 pts0.496Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5358624.5%30.2%26.4%33.7%49.1%36.1%23.0%23.0%34.4%27.1%High +13.0 pts0.145Weak or none
5fAll going8 to 11 runners1141,07925.4%29.3%29.8%34.1%44.7%36.6%28.2%30.2%36.1%31.7%High +8.1 pts0.200Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners4557726.7%31.5%31.1%33.1%42.2%35.5%21.5%18.8%29.3%23.4%High +6.7 pts0.618Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners4744219.1%29.3%27.7%33.6%53.2%37.0%32.3%30.4%33.5%31.9%High +16.2 pts0.065Weak or none
5fGood8 to 11 runners3230031.3%28.9%40.6%34.4%28.1%36.6%21.8%33.0%39.1%32.0%Middle +6.2 pts0.593Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3533728.6%29.4%22.9%34.4%48.6%36.1%28.3%27.6%36.9%31.2%High +12.5 pts0.239Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes3123,90327.2%30.7%33.3%33.4%39.7%36.0%23.5%24.5%23.9%24.0%High +3.7 pts0.296Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes1051,29725.7%30.8%37.1%33.2%37.1%36.1%22.6%24.5%25.5%24.3%Middle +3.9 pts0.497Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes1181,50228.8%30.6%31.4%33.2%40.7%36.3%21.9%25.3%23.4%23.6%High +4.4 pts0.649Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes891,10427.0%30.7%31.5%33.8%41.6%35.4%26.8%23.6%22.8%24.2%High +6.2 pts0.473Weak or none
6fAll going8 to 11 runners1401,37122.1%29.5%37.1%33.8%41.4%36.7%31.2%31.7%29.2%30.6%High +4.7 pts0.141Weak or none
6fAll going12 to 15 runners1151,53227.0%31.8%32.2%33.1%40.9%35.2%20.8%23.5%23.4%22.5%High +5.7 pts0.385Weak or none
6fAll going16 or more runners571,00040.4%31.3%26.3%33.0%33.3%35.8%17.9%16.1%17.4%17.1%Low +9.1 pts0.308Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners5048430.0%29.4%36.0%33.7%34.0%36.9%32.4%29.4%31.3%31.0%Middle +2.3 pts0.905Weak or none
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)12 to 15 runners3545920.0%32.3%37.1%32.7%42.9%35.1%20.9%24.0%23.6%22.9%High +7.8 pts0.294Not enough data
6fFast (good to firm or firmer)16 or more runners2035425.0%31.6%40.0%32.8%35.0%35.6%12.5%18.1%19.8%16.9%Middle +7.2 pts0.741Not enough data
6fGood8 to 11 runners4948620.4%29.5%38.8%33.3%42.9%37.2%26.6%34.0%29.8%30.2%High +5.7 pts0.327Weak or none
6fGood12 to 15 runners4560133.3%31.3%26.7%33.2%40.0%35.4%20.7%23.0%23.5%22.5%High +4.6 pts0.636Weak or none
6fGood16 or more runners2441537.5%31.3%25.0%32.7%37.5%36.0%18.5%18.4%15.4%17.3%Low +6.2 pts0.689Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4140114.6%29.8%36.6%34.4%48.8%35.8%35.3%31.9%25.7%30.7%High +13.0 pts0.076Weak or none
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners3547225.7%31.8%34.3%33.2%40.0%35.0%20.7%23.6%23.0%22.2%High +5.0 pts0.715Not enough data
7fAll goingAll field sizes1932,12923.3%30.4%34.2%33.4%43.0%36.2%22.1%26.3%32.3%27.2%High +6.8 pts0.056Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4247828.6%31.2%33.3%33.3%40.5%35.6%24.2%22.6%31.8%26.4%High +4.9 pts0.830Weak or none
7fGoodAll field sizes8291424.4%30.7%31.7%33.3%43.9%36.0%20.9%25.7%33.2%26.9%High +7.9 pts0.277Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6973718.8%29.6%37.7%33.6%43.5%36.7%22.3%29.6%31.5%28.1%High +6.8 pts0.142Weak or none
7fAll going8 to 11 runners1161,11623.3%29.5%34.5%33.7%43.1%36.8%24.9%30.9%36.4%31.2%High +6.3 pts0.250Weak or none
7fAll going12 to 15 runners7598124.0%31.9%32.0%33.1%44.0%35.0%19.2%21.2%27.9%22.9%High +9.0 pts0.202Weak or none
7fFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners2221527.3%30.4%40.9%33.4%36.4%36.2%24.6%30.6%35.9%30.7%Middle +7.5 pts0.803Not enough data
7fGood8 to 11 runners4744927.7%29.9%25.5%33.5%46.8%36.7%26.9%28.0%38.2%31.4%High +10.1 pts0.320Weak or none
7fGood12 to 15 runners3444920.6%31.9%38.2%33.2%41.2%35.0%15.4%23.5%28.7%22.7%High +6.2 pts0.367Not enough data
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners4745217.0%28.7%40.4%33.9%42.6%37.4%23.1%34.0%34.9%31.2%Middle +6.5 pts0.206Weak or none
7fSoft (good to soft to heavy)12 to 15 runners2228522.7%31.7%31.8%33.0%45.5%35.4%21.1%22.3%25.7%23.2%High +10.1 pts0.551Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes1922,15522.4%30.1%32.3%33.7%45.8%36.2%22.8%26.6%30.3%26.7%High +9.6 pts0.012Moderate
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes4953530.6%30.0%22.4%33.8%46.9%36.3%27.2%26.3%29.4%27.5%High +10.6 pts0.183Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes911,02118.7%30.4%36.3%33.5%46.2%36.1%21.5%27.6%30.4%26.7%High +10.1 pts0.032Moderate
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5259921.2%29.8%34.6%34.0%44.2%36.2%21.1%25.1%31.0%26.0%High +8.0 pts0.325Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners1131,06719.5%29.2%33.6%34.1%46.9%36.7%26.6%29.8%37.8%31.8%High +10.2 pts0.032Moderate
1mAll going12 to 15 runners6687328.8%31.7%30.3%33.1%40.9%35.3%21.0%23.9%23.1%22.7%High +5.6 pts0.632Weak or none
1mFast (good to firm or firmer)8 to 11 runners3027133.3%29.0%20.0%34.5%46.7%36.5%32.9%32.3%34.3%33.2%High +10.2 pts0.238Not enough data
1mGood8 to 11 runners5047516.0%29.5%42.0%33.8%42.0%36.8%27.1%31.3%35.4%31.6%Middle +8.2 pts0.108Weak or none
1mGood12 to 15 runners3849623.7%31.7%26.3%33.0%50.0%35.3%18.5%23.8%26.3%23.0%High +14.7 pts0.163Not enough data
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3332112.1%29.0%33.3%34.3%54.5%36.7%20.4%25.5%44.1%30.8%High +17.8 pts0.047Not enough data
1m4fAll goingAll field sizes941,01916.0%30.0%41.5%33.8%42.6%36.1%20.5%33.8%28.0%27.7%Middle +7.7 pts0.012Moderate
1m4fGoodAll field sizes353668.6%30.4%45.7%34.1%45.7%35.6%15.2%39.5%30.0%28.7%Middle +11.6 pts0.019Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4247021.4%29.6%47.6%33.9%31.0%36.4%25.0%30.2%25.1%26.8%Middle +13.7 pts0.164Weak or none
1m4fAll going8 to 11 runners6561210.8%29.4%43.1%34.2%46.2%36.4%22.8%40.2%31.4%31.9%High +9.8 pts0.004Moderate
1m4fAll going12 to 15 runners2330926.1%31.7%47.8%33.0%26.1%35.3%16.3%28.4%22.0%22.3%Middle +14.8 pts0.313Not enough data
1m4fGood8 to 11 runners252344.0%29.5%48.0%34.7%48.0%35.9%17.4%42.0%34.5%32.1%Middle +13.3 pts0.020Not enough data
1m4fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners2927817.2%29.1%51.7%34.2%31.0%36.6%30.9%40.0%23.5%31.3%Middle +17.5 pts0.119Not enough data

Flat races at Thirsk with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 16 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Thirsk draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances97623.9%34.1%42.3%30.3%33.6%36.1%Strong25322.9%35.6%41.9%ModerateHolding
5f17025.3%31.2%43.5%29.9%33.7%36.3%Weak or none5328.3%39.6%32.1%Weak or noneGone lately
6f31227.2%33.3%39.7%30.7%33.4%36.0%Weak or none8321.7%28.9%49.4%ModerateStronger lately
7f19323.3%34.2%43.0%30.4%33.4%36.2%Weak or none6023.3%33.3%45.0%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m19222.4%32.3%45.8%30.1%33.7%36.2%Moderate4221.4%33.3%45.2%Weak or noneHolding
1m4f9416.0%41.5%42.6%30.0%33.8%36.1%Moderate1216.7%66.7%16.7%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Thirsk stall by stall at each distance

5f116095.6%9.6%22.5%28.8%-6.3
5f21591710.7%9.6%27.7%28.7%-1.0
5f3163116.7%9.6%23.3%28.7%-5.4
5f4160148.8%9.6%30.6%28.8%+1.8
5f5160148.8%9.6%23.1%28.9%-5.8
5f6158127.6%9.6%31.6%28.8%+2.9
5f71561811.5%9.7%26.3%29.0%-2.7
5f8159159.4%9.6%27.7%28.8%-1.2
5f91521711.2%9.4%29.6%28.3%+1.3
5f101191916.0%8.8%37.8%26.3%+11.5
5f119899.2%8.5%35.7%25.5%+10.2
5f1267710.4%7.9%26.9%23.8%+3.1
5f135323.8%7.5%17.0%22.6%-5.7
6f1282227.8%8.5%22.3%25.4%-3.0
6f2296196.4%8.5%23.6%25.5%-1.8
6f3287165.6%8.5%25.8%25.4%+0.4
6f4292289.6%8.4%27.1%25.3%+1.8
6f5289289.7%8.4%24.2%25.2%-1.0
6f6298279.1%8.5%25.8%25.4%+0.4
6f72862910.1%8.5%28.7%25.5%+3.2
6f8293268.9%8.5%25.9%25.4%+0.5
6f9295227.5%8.4%29.2%25.1%+4.1
6f10259238.9%8.1%22.4%24.2%-1.8
6f11224208.9%7.7%18.3%23.2%-4.9
6f12191147.3%7.3%24.6%21.9%+2.7
6f13154138.4%7.0%18.8%20.9%-2.0
6f14122108.2%6.6%16.4%19.7%-3.3
6f159655.2%6.3%22.9%18.9%+4.0
6f167479.5%6.1%20.3%18.2%+2.1
6f175623.6%5.8%14.3%17.5%-3.2
7f1187147.5%9.3%19.3%28.0%-8.7
7f2183147.7%9.4%22.4%28.3%-5.9
7f3182126.6%9.3%24.7%28.0%-3.3
7f41841910.3%9.4%27.7%28.1%-0.4
7f5185137.0%9.4%26.5%28.1%-1.6
7f61832312.6%9.4%33.9%28.1%+5.8
7f7182126.6%9.3%20.3%28.0%-7.6
7f8177137.3%9.3%29.9%28.0%+1.9
7f91722313.4%9.2%34.3%27.5%+6.8
7f101521610.5%8.8%32.2%26.4%+5.9
7f111201310.8%8.4%30.8%25.1%+5.7
7f12861315.1%8.0%40.7%24.0%+16.7
7f136246.5%7.6%17.7%22.8%-5.1
1m117695.1%9.3%20.5%27.9%-7.4
1m2176148.0%9.3%22.7%27.9%-5.2
1m3175105.7%9.4%26.9%28.1%-1.2
1m4183189.8%9.4%27.9%28.1%-0.2
1m51812111.6%9.3%28.2%28.0%+0.2
1m6184126.5%9.3%22.8%27.9%-5.1
1m7180147.8%9.2%25.6%27.7%-2.2
1m81863016.1%9.3%38.7%28.0%+10.7
1m91771810.2%9.2%31.1%27.7%+3.4
1m10133129.0%8.5%32.3%25.5%+6.8
1m11121129.9%8.2%24.0%24.5%-0.6
1m12891112.4%7.7%30.3%23.0%+7.3
1m136411.6%7.2%17.2%21.7%-4.5
1m145359.4%7.0%20.8%20.9%-0.2
1m4f18755.7%9.6%18.4%28.8%-10.4
1m4f28733.4%9.6%20.7%28.7%-8.1
1m4f38933.4%9.7%23.6%29.2%-5.6
1m4f49177.7%9.7%26.4%29.1%-2.7
1m4f5881213.6%9.6%38.6%28.9%+9.7
1m4f6871719.5%9.6%43.7%28.8%+14.9
1m4f79088.9%9.6%36.7%28.9%+7.8
1m4f8901516.7%9.7%24.4%29.0%-4.6
1m4f98156.2%9.4%29.6%28.2%+1.4
1m4f106769.0%8.8%20.9%26.5%-5.6

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Thirsk draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances69423.6%30.3%34.4%33.5%42.2%36.1%23.0%26.2%29.1%
5f12626.2%29.8%31.0%33.5%42.9%36.7%24.9%25.5%32.8%
6f21724.4%30.8%32.7%33.4%43.3%35.8%22.9%23.3%25.4%
7f14523.4%30.4%37.2%33.4%40.0%36.2%22.2%27.9%31.1%
1m13623.5%30.1%30.9%33.8%45.6%36.2%23.9%26.3%30.5%
1m4f5717.5%30.3%43.9%33.7%38.6%36.0%19.6%34.4%27.7%

Flat races at Thirsk with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Thirsk draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low69423.6%30.3%6.8%2,42416423.0%
Middle69434.4%33.5%9.0%2,65423926.2%
High69442.2%36.1%10.2%2,86329329.1%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Thirsk draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances86023.4%29.9%34.2%33.4%42.7%36.8%
5f15126.5%29.5%33.1%33.2%40.4%37.2%
6f23424.4%30.7%33.3%33.2%42.7%36.2%
7f17620.5%30.2%36.9%33.2%43.2%36.5%
1m17025.3%29.5%30.6%33.6%44.1%36.9%
1m4f10119.8%29.0%37.6%33.3%42.6%37.7%
1m6f2020.0%27.2%40.0%35.5%40.0%37.3%

Every Flat race at Thirsk with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Thirsk draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances16622.3%27.9%33.1%32.6%44.6%39.5%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances40121.2%29.4%34.2%33.9%45.1%36.7%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances23426.1%31.8%34.2%33.0%39.7%35.2%
16 or more runnersAll distances5930.5%31.2%37.3%32.8%32.2%36.0%
3 to 7 runners5f2528.0%28.0%44.0%32.0%28.0%39.9%
8 to 11 runners5f8825.0%29.2%28.4%33.8%46.6%37.0%
12 to 15 runners5f2934.5%31.5%31.0%32.7%34.5%35.9%
8 to 11 runners6f9621.9%29.8%32.3%33.8%46.9%36.5%
12 to 15 runners6f8022.5%31.8%32.5%33.1%45.0%35.1%
16 or more runners6f4134.1%31.3%34.1%33.2%31.7%35.5%
3 to 7 runners7f316.5%29.4%35.5%32.6%58.1%38.0%
8 to 11 runners7f9123.1%29.6%36.3%33.6%41.8%36.9%
12 to 15 runners7f5225.0%31.9%36.5%33.1%38.5%35.0%
3 to 7 runners1m3432.4%27.0%29.4%32.9%38.2%40.1%
8 to 11 runners1m7919.0%28.9%34.2%34.5%46.8%36.6%
12 to 15 runners1m5228.8%31.8%26.9%32.9%44.2%35.3%
3 to 7 runners1m4f4422.7%27.4%29.5%32.9%47.7%39.8%
8 to 11 runners1m4f3810.5%29.6%44.7%34.0%44.7%36.4%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Thirsk draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances18723.5%30.5%44.9%36.2%32.1%
GoodAll distances30224.2%30.5%41.4%36.0%34.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances9115.4%29.6%41.8%36.6%42.9%
SoftAll distances10429.8%30.1%37.5%35.9%32.7%
Good to firm or firmer5f4219.0%29.4%47.6%37.3%33.3%
Good5f4634.8%30.1%28.3%36.1%37.0%
Soft5f2123.8%30.2%57.1%35.7%19.0%
Good to firm or firmer6f7220.8%31.0%41.7%35.8%37.5%
Good6f8626.7%30.6%45.3%36.1%29.1%
Good to soft or yielding6f238.7%31.0%43.5%35.3%47.8%
Soft6f3240.6%30.7%37.5%35.3%21.9%
Good to firm or firmer7f3030.0%31.8%40.0%35.4%33.3%
Good7f6923.2%30.5%42.0%36.3%34.8%
Good to soft or yielding7f2213.6%29.7%27.3%36.7%59.1%
Soft7f2123.8%29.3%42.9%36.7%33.3%
Good to firm or firmer1m3330.3%29.9%45.5%36.3%24.2%
Good1m7021.4%30.5%45.7%36.1%32.9%
Good1m4f248.3%30.9%45.8%35.1%45.8%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Thirsk individual stalls, most-run distances

6f1198105.1%8.5%20.2%
6f220594.4%8.5%21.5%
6f3201147.0%8.5%27.9%
6f42062110.2%8.4%26.2%
6f5200199.5%8.4%22.0%
6f6208136.3%8.4%21.6%
6f72022210.9%8.5%26.2%
6f8204209.8%8.5%28.9%
6f92042110.3%8.3%34.3%
6f10180158.3%8.0%25.0%
6f111521711.2%7.6%21.1%
6f12130129.2%7.2%26.9%
6f1311176.3%6.9%17.1%
7f113996.5%9.4%17.3%
7f2140139.3%9.5%25.0%
7f313796.6%9.4%24.1%
7f41381510.9%9.4%29.7%
7f514196.4%9.4%26.2%
7f61371913.9%9.4%33.6%
7f7138118.0%9.4%23.2%
7f8136107.4%9.4%33.1%
7f91281713.3%9.2%32.0%
7f101151311.3%8.8%34.8%

The two most-run distances at Thirsk in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Thirsk 6f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 27.2%Since 2016 Middle: 33.3%Since 2016 High: 39.7%Since 2024 Low: 21.7%Since 2024 Middle: 28.9%Since 2024 High: 49.4%Expected by chance Low: 30.7%Expected by chance Middle: 33.4%Expected by chance High: 36%

Win % of races by Draw third

Thirsk 6f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%5%10%15%20%Stall 1Stall 2Stall 3Stall 4Stall 5Stall 6Stall 7Stall 8Stall 9Stall 10Stall 11Stall 12Stall 13Win % Stall 1: 5.1%5.1%Win % Stall 2: 4.4%4.4%Win % Stall 3: 7%7%Win % Stall 4: 10.2%10.2%Win % Stall 5: 9.5%9.5%Win % Stall 6: 6.3%6.3%Win % Stall 7: 10.9%10.9%Win % Stall 8: 9.8%9.8%Win % Stall 9: 10.3%10.3%Win % Stall 10: 8.3%8.3%Win % Stall 11: 11.2%11.2%Win % Stall 12: 9.2%9.2%Win % Stall 13: 6.3%6.3%Expected by chance Stall 1: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 2: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 3: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 4: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 5: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 6: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 7: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 8: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 9: 8.3%8.3%Expected by chance Stall 10: 8%8%Expected by chance Stall 11: 7.6%7.6%Expected by chance Stall 12: 7.2%7.2%Expected by chance Stall 13: 6.9%6.9%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Thirsk and their draw

14 Sep 26Forest Caper (GB) silksForest Caper (GB)2Low127f13.00
14 Sep 26Fractional (GB) silksFractional (GB)7High91m5.00
14 Sep 26Mo Anam Chara (IRE) silksMo Anam Chara (IRE)9High107f3.50
14 Sep 26Lamlash Bay (GB) silksLamlash Bay (GB)7Middle116f6.00
14 Sep 26Majestic Jude (IRE) silksMajestic Jude (IRE)2Middle47f1.22
14 Sep 26Bladey Lady (IRE) silksBladey Lady (IRE)13High166f4.50
14 Sep 26Satyress (GB) silksSatyress (GB)5Middle121m4f2.38
5 Sep 26High Storm (GB) silksHigh Storm (GB)8High71m4f4.50
5 Sep 26Nyman (IRE) silksNyman (IRE)3Low87f4.33
5 Sep 26Andesite (GB) silksAndesite (GB)5Middle97f6.00
5 Sep 26Grasmere Boy (GB) silksGrasmere Boy (GB)9High96f6.50
5 Sep 26Oolong Poobong (IRE) silksOolong Poobong (IRE)5High67f2.25
5 Sep 26Dontlookanyfurther (IRE) silksDontlookanyfurther (IRE)9High136f3.75
5 Sep 26This Moment (IRE) silksThis Moment (IRE)3Low95f10.00
5 Sep 26Prince Kameo (GB) silksPrince Kameo (GB)9High91m9.00
28 Aug 26Deep Havana (GB) silksDeep Havana (GB)14Middle186f29.00
28 Aug 26Hatamoto (GB) silksHatamoto (GB)1Low111m6.00
14 Aug 26Recobella (FR) silksRecobella (FR)2Middle31m4f4.00
14 Aug 26Military Leader (GB) silksMilitary Leader (GB)15High151m2.88
14 Aug 26Raging Raj (IRE) silksRaging Raj (IRE)7High87f11.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Thirsk in the data with a full draw.

Thirsk win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f6f7f1m1m4fLow third 5f: 26.2%Low third 6f: 24.4%Low third 7f: 23.4%Low third 1m: 23.5%Low third 1m4f: 17.5%Middle third 5f: 31%Middle third 6f: 32.7%Middle third 7f: 37.2%Middle third 1m: 30.9%Middle third 1m4f: 43.9%High third 5f: 42.9%High third 6f: 43.3%High third 7f: 40%High third 1m: 45.6%High third 1m4f: 38.6%

Win % of races by Distance

Thirsk win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 19%Low third 2020: 27.5%Low third 2021: 29.9%Low third 2022: 27.6%Low third 2023: 18.3%Low third 2024: 17.7%Low third 2025: 21.3%Low third 2026: 31.2%31.2%Middle third 2019: 39%Middle third 2020: 37.7%Middle third 2021: 29.9%Middle third 2022: 29.9%Middle third 2023: 32.3%Middle third 2024: 39.6%Middle third 2025: 33.8%Middle third 2026: 32.5%32.5%High third 2019: 41.9%High third 2020: 36.2%High third 2021: 40.2%High third 2022: 42.5%High third 2023: 49.5%High third 2024: 43.8%High third 2025: 45%High third 2026: 36.4%36.4%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Thirsk?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Thirsk, the draw rates weak or none from 312 races. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the middle third has won 41.5% against 33.8% by chance (rated moderate).

Is high or low best at Thirsk over 6f?

The 6f row in the distance table is Thirsk's biggest sample, and the high third has run above chance there in the current figures. The low third has trailed its expected share at most Thirsk trips.

How do going and field size change the draw at Thirsk?

The bias matrix gives every Thirsk trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Thirsk draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 6f the check reads stronger lately, from 83 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Thirsk?

Over 6f, the most-run trip at Thirsk, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 27.2% of 312 races against 30.7% by chance. It stands out most over 1m4f, where the middle third has won 41.5% against 33.8% (rated moderate).

Which stall is best at Thirsk over 5f?

Stall 10 has the best top-three record over 5f at Thirsk since 2016, placing in 37.8% of 119 runs against 27.7% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Thirsk?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 23.9% of Thirsk races against 30.3% by chance, and high draws 42.3% against 36.1%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the Thirsk high-draw pattern fade on soft ground?

The going table splits Thirsk results into bands, each with its race count. The soft band rests on far fewer races than the good band, so read its race count before taking a trend from it.

How often are the Thirsk draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseThirsk course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseThirsk racecardsThe next meeting's full cardRipon draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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