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Navan draw bias: Flat racing on an undulating track

At Navan over 5f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 26.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (152 races), middle draws 38.2% and high draws 35.5%, against 30.2%, 33.8% and 36% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Navan declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 7 October 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m6f
Trip where the draw stands out most
651
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
Middle 38.2% v 33.8%

At Navan over 5f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 26.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (152 races), middle draws 38.2% and high draws 35.5%, against 30.2%, 33.8% and 36.0% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 152 races · Window: 17 April 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Navan draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes6519,11929.3%30.5%33.9%33.6%36.7%35.9%21.0%21.8%21.5%21.4%High +0.8 pts0.792Weak or none
5fAll goingAll field sizes1521,96426.3%30.2%38.2%33.8%35.5%36.0%22.5%22.1%24.9%23.2%Middle +4.4 pts0.442Weak or none
5fFast (good to firm or firmer)All field sizes2430029.2%29.6%45.8%34.1%25.0%36.3%23.1%23.8%25.0%24.0%Middle +11.7 pts0.404Not enough data
5fGoodAll field sizes6586221.5%30.4%33.8%33.6%44.6%36.1%21.5%20.1%25.9%22.6%High +8.5 pts0.225Weak or none
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes6380230.2%30.3%39.7%33.9%30.2%35.7%23.3%23.5%23.9%23.6%Middle +5.8 pts0.561Weak or none
5fAll going8 to 11 runners7267925.0%28.8%43.1%34.4%31.9%36.8%31.1%30.9%33.2%31.8%Middle +8.7 pts0.304Weak or none
5fAll going12 to 15 runners3952423.1%31.7%38.5%33.2%38.5%35.1%21.7%21.3%23.9%22.3%Middle +5.3 pts0.505Not enough data
5fAll going16 or more runners4176131.7%31.4%29.3%33.3%39.0%35.3%15.9%14.6%17.9%16.2%High +3.7 pts0.832Weak or none
5fGood8 to 11 runners3028316.7%28.9%36.7%34.1%46.7%37.1%29.3%26.0%39.0%31.8%High +9.6 pts0.307Not enough data
5fGood16 or more runners2139333.3%31.5%19.0%33.0%47.6%35.5%16.1%13.8%18.0%16.0%High +12.1 pts0.343Not enough data
5fSoft (good to soft to heavy)8 to 11 runners3028633.3%29.4%46.7%34.3%20.0%36.3%32.1%33.7%28.8%31.5%Middle +12.4 pts0.158Not enough data
5½fAll goingAll field sizes931,30936.6%30.3%29.0%34.1%34.4%35.7%20.9%22.7%20.3%21.3%Low +6.3 pts0.379Weak or none
5½fGoodAll field sizes3037636.7%29.7%30.0%34.5%33.3%35.8%20.4%25.6%25.4%23.9%Low +7.0 pts0.699Not enough data
5½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5177139.2%30.6%27.5%33.7%33.3%35.7%21.0%21.5%17.2%19.8%Low +8.6 pts0.386Weak or none
5½fAll going8 to 11 runners3230234.4%28.4%34.4%34.9%31.3%36.7%29.1%38.1%27.9%31.8%Low +6.0 pts0.716Not enough data
5½fAll going12 to 15 runners3040326.7%31.1%26.7%33.7%46.7%35.2%22.4%22.8%21.8%22.3%High +11.5 pts0.419Not enough data
5½fAll going16 or more runners3160448.4%31.5%25.8%33.6%25.8%35.0%16.3%14.8%15.2%15.4%Low +16.9 pts0.127Not enough data
5½fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners2446450.0%31.2%29.2%33.8%20.8%35.0%17.9%15.9%13.0%15.5%Low +18.8 pts0.121Not enough data
6fAll goingAll field sizes7096435.7%31.0%27.1%33.3%37.1%35.7%23.9%17.8%23.6%21.8%Low +4.7 pts0.510Weak or none
6fGoodAll field sizes3646244.4%30.9%30.6%33.3%25.0%35.9%29.2%21.6%20.0%23.4%Low +13.5 pts0.181Not enough data
6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes2741129.6%31.4%22.2%33.1%48.1%35.6%19.4%14.7%24.7%19.7%High +12.5 pts0.335Not enough data
6fAll going8 to 11 runners2220236.4%29.6%27.3%33.8%36.4%36.6%40.0%26.5%32.4%32.7%Low +6.8 pts0.733Not enough data
6fAll going12 to 15 runners2533744.0%31.8%24.0%33.2%32.0%35.0%23.4%19.6%23.7%22.3%Low +12.2 pts0.391Not enough data
6fAll going16 or more runners2342526.1%31.5%30.4%33.0%43.5%35.6%17.2%12.1%19.2%16.2%High +7.9 pts0.719Not enough data
1mAll goingAll field sizes971,29724.7%30.7%39.2%33.6%36.1%35.7%21.1%24.7%21.7%22.4%Middle +5.6 pts0.363Weak or none
1mGoodAll field sizes4663619.6%30.3%45.7%33.8%34.8%35.9%18.5%23.8%22.5%21.7%Middle +11.9 pts0.159Weak or none
1mSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes4456434.1%31.2%27.3%33.4%38.6%35.4%25.4%24.5%21.1%23.4%High +3.2 pts0.689Weak or none
1mAll going8 to 11 runners3432629.4%28.8%44.1%34.7%26.5%36.5%38.3%28.3%28.6%31.3%Middle +9.4 pts0.406Not enough data
1mAll going12 to 15 runners2837528.6%32.0%28.6%32.8%42.9%35.2%20.0%23.6%23.5%22.4%High +7.7 pts0.700Not enough data
1mAll going16 or more runners3559617.1%31.5%42.9%33.2%40.0%35.3%13.3%23.2%16.7%17.6%Middle +9.7 pts0.174Not enough data
1m2fAll goingAll field sizes1342,00727.6%30.6%30.6%33.4%41.8%35.9%19.7%20.8%19.8%20.0%High +5.9 pts0.369Weak or none
1m2fGoodAll field sizes6089121.7%31.0%31.7%33.3%46.7%35.7%18.7%23.0%18.9%20.2%High +11.0 pts0.155Weak or none
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes5686433.9%30.5%30.4%33.3%35.7%36.2%19.6%18.4%20.6%19.4%Low +3.4 pts0.834Weak or none
1m2fAll going8 to 11 runners3938035.9%29.0%28.2%34.2%35.9%36.8%30.9%33.8%27.9%30.8%Low +6.9 pts0.585Not enough data
1m2fAll going12 to 15 runners2635123.1%31.3%38.5%33.0%38.5%35.7%20.9%19.8%25.6%22.2%Middle +5.5 pts0.650Not enough data
1m2fAll going16 or more runners691,27624.6%31.3%29.0%33.1%46.4%35.6%16.3%17.0%15.7%16.2%High +10.8 pts0.165Weak or none
1m2fGood16 or more runners2852721.4%31.6%28.6%32.8%50.0%35.6%16.2%18.5%13.4%15.9%High +14.4 pts0.258Not enough data
1m2fSoft (good to soft to heavy)16 or more runners3360030.3%31.0%27.3%33.4%42.4%35.6%16.1%14.9%18.8%16.5%High +6.8 pts0.665Not enough data
1m5fAll goingAll field sizes5174429.4%30.5%29.4%33.3%41.2%36.2%21.4%22.7%17.9%20.6%High +5.0 pts0.743Weak or none
1m5fGoodAll field sizes2842425.0%30.7%28.6%33.4%46.4%35.9%21.4%22.5%15.9%19.8%High +10.5 pts0.505Not enough data
1m5fAll going16 or more runners2544032.0%31.4%32.0%32.6%36.0%36.0%18.1%18.1%15.2%17.0%Low +0.6 pts0.997Not enough data
1m6fAll goingAll field sizes4875729.2%30.9%43.8%33.5%27.1%35.7%15.7%21.3%19.7%19.0%Middle +10.3 pts0.279Weak or none
1m6fSoft (good to soft to heavy)All field sizes3047130.0%30.6%53.3%33.8%16.7%35.6%18.6%20.1%18.6%19.1%Middle +19.5 pts0.041Not enough data
1m6fAll going16 or more runners2346843.5%31.4%34.8%33.3%21.7%35.3%12.2%17.3%14.5%14.7%Low +12.1 pts0.319Not enough data

Flat races at Navan with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 17 April 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Navan draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances65129.3%33.9%36.7%30.5%33.6%35.9%Weak or none18028.3%32.8%38.9%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
5f15226.3%38.2%35.5%30.2%33.8%36.0%Weak or none3925.6%23.1%51.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
5½f9336.6%29.0%34.4%30.3%34.1%35.7%Weak or none0---Not enough dataToo few recent races
6f7035.7%27.1%37.1%31.0%33.3%35.7%Weak or none4740.4%27.7%31.9%Weak or noneStronger lately
1m9724.7%39.2%36.1%30.7%33.6%35.7%Weak or none258.0%48.0%44.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m2f13427.6%30.6%41.8%30.6%33.4%35.9%Weak or none4025.0%42.5%32.5%Weak or noneGone lately
1m5f5129.4%29.4%41.2%30.5%33.3%36.2%Weak or none1020.0%40.0%40.0%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m6f4829.2%43.8%27.1%30.9%33.5%35.7%Weak or none1741.2%23.5%35.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Navan stall by stall at each distance

5f114096.4%8.5%22.1%25.5%-3.3
5f2145117.6%8.5%23.4%25.5%-2.0
5f3143107.0%8.5%24.5%25.5%-1.0
5f4139117.9%8.5%27.3%25.6%+1.8
5f51431711.9%8.5%27.3%25.6%+1.6
5f6146128.2%8.4%25.3%25.3%+0.1
5f71411712.1%8.6%26.2%25.7%+0.5
5f813953.6%8.5%18.7%25.6%-6.9
5f913096.9%8.1%25.4%24.3%+1.0
5f101171512.8%7.9%24.8%23.6%+1.2
5f119588.4%7.3%27.4%22.0%+5.4
5f127856.4%6.8%30.8%20.5%+10.3
5f137368.2%6.3%15.1%19.0%-4.0
5f146223.2%6.2%11.3%18.5%-7.2
5f156023.3%6.0%21.7%17.9%+3.8
5½f18944.5%7.9%22.5%23.7%-1.2
5½f2901112.2%7.9%27.8%23.7%+4.1
5½f386910.5%7.8%22.1%23.4%-1.3
5½f48555.9%7.7%27.1%23.2%+3.9
5½f5861214.0%7.9%27.9%23.6%+4.3
5½f68467.1%7.8%23.8%23.3%+0.5
5½f78766.9%7.9%20.7%23.7%-3.0
5½f8891011.2%8.0%22.5%23.9%-1.4
5½f98033.8%7.5%22.5%22.6%-0.1
5½f107534.0%7.2%20.0%21.5%-1.5
5½f116945.8%6.9%20.3%20.7%-0.4
5½f125747.0%6.6%17.5%19.7%-2.1
5½f136058.3%6.4%25.0%19.1%+5.9
6f1651116.9%7.9%38.5%23.7%+14.8
6f265710.8%7.7%24.6%23.2%+1.4
6f36734.5%7.9%31.3%23.8%+7.5
6f46657.6%7.8%13.6%23.5%-9.9
6f56623.0%7.8%15.2%23.5%-8.4
6f66657.6%8.0%19.7%23.9%-4.2
6f766710.6%7.9%25.8%23.7%+2.1
6f86734.5%7.9%22.4%23.6%-1.2
6f95923.4%7.6%16.9%22.9%-5.9
6f105735.3%7.2%19.3%21.6%-2.3
6f115335.7%7.0%13.2%21.1%-7.9
1m19177.7%8.1%20.9%24.3%-3.4
1m29177.7%8.0%24.2%24.0%+0.2
1m39033.3%8.0%23.3%23.9%-0.6
1m4881011.4%8.1%23.9%24.2%-0.3
1m587910.3%8.1%24.1%24.2%-0.1
1m69266.5%8.1%19.6%24.2%-4.7
1m78866.8%8.0%26.1%24.1%+2.1
1m88766.9%8.0%24.1%24.0%+0.2
1m98333.6%7.8%22.9%23.3%-0.4
1m107568.0%7.3%26.7%22.0%+4.6
1m1171811.3%7.3%25.4%21.8%+3.6
1m126246.5%6.8%22.6%20.5%+2.1
1m136058.3%6.7%15.0%20.1%-5.1
1m145135.9%6.4%21.6%19.2%+2.4
1m2f112586.4%7.3%20.0%22.0%-2.0
1m2f21241310.5%7.4%23.4%22.2%+1.2
1m2f312254.1%7.2%24.6%21.7%+2.8
1m2f412275.7%7.4%21.3%22.1%-0.8
1m2f512397.3%7.3%22.0%21.9%0.0
1m2f612243.3%7.3%20.5%21.9%-1.4
1m2f7121108.3%7.3%19.8%21.9%-2.0
1m2f812675.6%7.3%23.0%21.9%+1.2
1m2f912065.0%7.2%18.3%21.7%-3.3
1m2f101131715.0%6.9%28.3%20.8%+7.5
1m2f1110443.8%6.6%16.3%19.8%-3.5
1m2f129488.5%6.2%18.1%18.6%-0.5
1m2f137633.9%6.0%22.4%17.9%+4.4
1m2f147434.1%6.0%18.9%17.9%+1.0
1m2f156957.2%5.7%24.6%17.2%+7.4
1m2f166534.6%5.6%9.2%16.9%-7.7
1m2f176423.1%5.5%17.2%16.5%+0.7
1m2f185223.8%5.5%15.4%16.4%-1.0
1m2f1950510.0%5.3%16.0%16.0%0.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Navan draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances48429.5%30.6%33.5%33.6%37.0%35.9%20.9%21.7%21.3%
5f11027.3%30.2%36.4%33.8%36.4%36.0%22.5%21.7%25.2%
5½f7837.2%30.3%28.2%34.0%34.6%35.6%21.5%22.7%20.2%
6f4740.4%30.6%27.7%33.1%31.9%36.2%25.3%19.4%21.6%
1m6420.3%30.9%39.1%33.4%40.6%35.8%20.6%25.1%21.5%
1m2f10228.4%30.7%29.4%33.4%42.2%35.8%19.4%20.1%19.9%
1m5f3525.7%30.5%34.3%33.3%40.0%36.3%21.0%21.1%17.9%
1m6f4427.3%30.9%45.5%33.5%27.3%35.7%15.7%23.0%19.6%

Flat races at Navan with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Navan draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low48429.5%30.6%6.8%2,10414320.9%
Middle48433.5%33.6%7.1%2,28216221.7%
High48437.0%35.9%7.4%2,43517921.3%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Navan draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances55929.3%30.3%32.6%33.3%38.1%36.4%
5f12728.3%30.2%33.9%33.3%37.8%36.6%
5½f8836.4%29.9%28.4%33.9%35.2%36.2%
6f5236.5%30.6%28.8%32.9%34.6%36.4%
1m7119.7%30.7%40.8%33.3%39.4%36.0%
1m2f12027.5%30.3%30.0%33.1%42.5%36.5%
1m5f4531.1%29.5%28.9%33.5%40.0%37.0%
1m6f5226.9%30.5%40.4%33.4%32.7%36.1%

Every Flat race at Navan with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Navan draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances7528.0%28.3%26.7%31.8%45.3%39.9%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances16130.4%28.8%37.9%34.3%31.7%36.9%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances13126.0%31.5%32.1%33.1%42.0%35.4%
16 or more runnersAll distances19231.3%31.4%30.7%33.2%38.0%35.4%
8 to 11 runners5f5223.1%28.8%42.3%34.3%34.6%36.8%
12 to 15 runners5f2733.3%31.6%25.9%33.2%40.7%35.2%
16 or more runners5f3129.0%31.4%35.5%33.5%35.5%35.2%
8 to 11 runners5½f2737.0%28.3%33.3%34.7%29.6%36.9%
12 to 15 runners5½f2623.1%31.2%26.9%33.7%50.0%35.1%
16 or more runners5½f2552.0%31.6%24.0%33.7%24.0%34.7%
8 to 11 runners1m2020.0%29.3%50.0%34.4%30.0%36.4%
12 to 15 runners1m2123.8%31.9%28.6%32.6%47.6%35.5%
16 or more runners1m2317.4%31.2%39.1%33.3%43.5%35.5%
8 to 11 runners1m2f2540.0%28.7%28.0%34.6%32.0%36.6%
16 or more runners1m2f5825.9%31.3%27.6%33.1%46.6%35.5%
16 or more runners1m6f2040.0%31.4%35.0%33.4%25.0%35.2%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Navan draw by going, 8 or more runners

Good to firm or firmerAll distances3834.2%30.0%28.9%35.9%36.8%
GoodAll distances21724.9%30.5%43.3%36.0%31.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances11734.2%30.8%30.8%36.0%35.0%
SoftAll distances8236.6%30.3%29.3%35.6%34.1%
HeavyAll distances3020.0%31.4%46.7%35.3%33.3%
Good5f4721.3%30.3%48.9%36.3%29.8%
Good to soft or yielding5f2532.0%31.2%32.0%35.8%36.0%
Soft5f2227.3%29.3%22.7%35.7%50.0%
Good5½f2532.0%29.7%36.0%35.8%32.0%
Good to soft or yielding5½f2245.5%30.6%27.3%36.1%27.3%
Good6f2839.3%30.3%28.6%36.5%32.1%
Good1m339.1%30.5%42.4%35.8%48.5%
Good1m2f4621.7%31.0%50.0%35.6%28.3%
Good to soft or yielding1m2f2532.0%30.6%24.0%36.0%44.0%
Good1m5f2128.6%30.5%47.6%36.0%23.8%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Navan individual stalls, most-run distances

5f210587.6%8.5%23.8%
5f310665.7%8.6%22.6%
5f5103109.7%8.5%23.3%
5f610598.6%8.4%23.8%
5f810133.0%8.5%19.8%

The two most-run distances at Navan in races of 8 or more runners since 2019. Stall is the stall number drawn. Expected win % is the chance of a single runner given the field sizes it ran in. Stalls with fewer than 100 runs are hidden.

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Navan 5f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 26.3%Since 2016 Middle: 38.2%Since 2016 High: 35.5%Since 2024 Low: 25.6%Since 2024 Middle: 23.1%Since 2024 High: 51.3%Expected by chance Low: 30.2%Expected by chance Middle: 33.8%Expected by chance High: 36%

Win % of races by Draw third

Navan 5f win % by stall, 8 or more runners
Win %Expected by chance
0%2.5%5%7.5%10%Stall 2Stall 3Stall 5Stall 6Stall 8Win % Stall 2: 7.6%7.6%Win % Stall 3: 5.7%5.7%Win % Stall 5: 9.7%9.7%Win % Stall 6: 8.6%8.6%Win % Stall 8: 3%3%Expected by chance Stall 2: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 3: 8.6%8.6%Expected by chance Stall 5: 8.5%8.5%Expected by chance Stall 6: 8.4%8.4%Expected by chance Stall 8: 8.5%8.5%

Win % by Stall

Latest Flat winners at Navan and their draw

7 Oct 26Kodi Brown (IRE) silksKodi Brown (IRE)9Middle161m2f10.00
7 Oct 26Ballaghkeen (IRE) silksBallaghkeen (IRE)10Middle161m2f15.00
7 Oct 26Expert Dancer (GB) silksExpert Dancer (GB)5Middle91m5.50
7 Oct 26Jesus Green (IRE) silksJesus Green (IRE)10High91m1.36
7 Oct 26Rosato (IRE) silksRosato (IRE)19High226f4.50
7 Oct 26Celestial Crown (IRE) silksCelestial Crown (IRE)6Middle106f11.00
7 Oct 26Lilli's Angel (IRE) silksLilli's Angel (IRE)13High136f2.88
7 Oct 26Layla Belle (IRE) silksLayla Belle (IRE)17High216f10.00
5 Sep 26African Affair (IRE) silksAfrican Affair (IRE)2Low211m2f41.00
5 Sep 26Handani (IRE) silksHandani (IRE)23High211m2f2.62
5 Sep 26Millhone (IRE) silksMillhone (IRE)22High211m2f5.00
5 Sep 26Flower Forest (IRE) silksFlower Forest (IRE)11Middle181m5.00
5 Sep 26Moltophino (IRE) silksMoltophino (IRE)8High85f3.75
5 Sep 26Irish Rumour (IRE) silksIrish Rumour (IRE)14High185f6.50
5 Sep 26Lars Soldier (IRE) silksLars Soldier (IRE)6Middle106f6.50
5 Sep 26Roeillaun (IRE) silksRoeillaun (IRE)15High136f2.25
2 Sep 26Land Of The Giants (IRE) silksLand Of The Giants (IRE)6Middle161m7.50
2 Sep 26Mawhibah (QA) silksMawhibah (QA)22High211m2f9.00
2 Sep 26Sonoran (IRE) silksSonoran (IRE)16High151m10.00
2 Sep 26Make The Tide (IRE) silksMake The Tide (IRE)13High161m4.50

The 20 most recent Flat races at Navan in the data with a full draw.

Navan win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%5f5½f6f1m1m2f1m5f1m6fLow third 5f: 27.3%Low third 5½f: 37.2%Low third 6f: 40.4%Low third 1m: 20.3%Low third 1m2f: 28.4%Low third 1m5f: 25.7%Low third 1m6f: 27.3%Middle third 5f: 36.4%Middle third 5½f: 28.2%Middle third 6f: 27.7%Middle third 1m: 39.1%Middle third 1m2f: 29.4%Middle third 1m5f: 34.3%Middle third 1m6f: 45.5%High third 5f: 36.4%High third 5½f: 34.6%High third 6f: 31.9%High third 1m: 40.6%High third 1m2f: 42.2%High third 1m5f: 40%High third 1m6f: 27.3%

Win % of races by Distance

Navan win % of races by draw third and year, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%20192020202120222023202420252026Low third 2019: 35%Low third 2020: 33.9%Low third 2021: 26.2%Low third 2022: 21.3%Low third 2023: 35.7%Low third 2024: 32.8%Low third 2025: 27.3%Low third 2026: 24.6%24.6%Middle third 2019: 35%Middle third 2020: 29%Middle third 2021: 35.4%Middle third 2022: 39.3%Middle third 2023: 30.4%Middle third 2024: 42.2%Middle third 2025: 23.6%Middle third 2026: 31.1%31.1%High third 2019: 30%High third 2020: 37.1%High third 2021: 38.5%High third 2022: 39.3%High third 2023: 33.9%High third 2024: 25%High third 2025: 49.1%High third 2026: 44.3%44.3%

Win % of races by Year

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Is there a draw bias at Navan?

Over 5f, the most-run trip at Navan, the draw rates weak or none from 152 races. It stands out most over 1m6f, where the middle third has won 43.8% against 33.5% by chance (rated weak or none).

Does the draw matter in Navan's Flat sprints?

Navan's 5f, 5½f and 6f rows in the distance table show each third against chance. Across all distances pooled, the Navan thirds sit very close to chance.

How do going and field size change the draw at Navan?

The bias matrix gives every Navan trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Navan draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 5f the check reads too few recent races, from 39 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Navan?

Over 5f, the most-run trip at Navan, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 26.3% of 152 races against 30.2% by chance. It stands out most over 1m6f, where the middle third has won 43.8% against 33.5% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Navan over 5f?

Stall 12 has the best top-three record over 5f at Navan since 2016, placing in 30.8% of 78 runs against 23.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Navan?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 29.3% of Navan races against 30.5% by chance, and high draws 36.7% against 35.9%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does soft ground at Navan change the favoured side?

The going table splits Navan results by official going, each band with its race count. The good to soft and soft bands have leaned towards the low third and the good band towards the high third in the current figures.

How often are the Navan draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseNavan course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseNavan racecardsThe next meeting's full cardFairyhouse draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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