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Ballinrobe draw bias: summer Flat races in Mayo

At Ballinrobe over 1m1½f, the most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (60 races), middle draws 31.7% and high draws 40%, against 30.1%, 33.6% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none. Every trip, going and field size follows, with results to 15 October 2026.

No Flat meeting at Ballinrobe declared yet. Latest Flat race in the data: 20 July 2026 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
Weak or none
Rating on the most-run trip
1m5f
Trip where the draw stands out most
129
Races of 8+ runners since 2016
15 October 2026
Results up to
High 40.0% v 36.3%

At Ballinrobe over 1m1½f, the course's most-run Flat trip, low draws have won 28.3% of races of 8 or more runners since 2016 (60 races), middle draws 31.7% and high draws 40.0%, against 30.1%, 33.6% and 36.3% by chance. Bias rating: weak or none.Sample: 60 races · Window: 21 June 2016 to 15 October 2026 · Source: RaceWatch results database (Flat results with stall draw), plus today's declarations for the next meeting

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Ballinrobe draw bias by distance, going and field size

All distancesAll goingAll field sizes1291,42431.0%30.0%35.7%33.9%33.3%36.1%27.5%29.1%25.1%27.2%Middle +1.8 pts0.803Weak or none
1m1½fAll goingAll field sizes6063928.3%30.1%31.7%33.6%40.0%36.3%29.0%29.4%26.3%28.2%High +3.7 pts0.836Weak or none
1m1½fGoodAll field sizes4447425.0%30.1%29.5%33.6%45.5%36.3%28.0%30.2%25.6%27.8%High +9.2 pts0.445Weak or none
1m1½fAll going8 to 11 runners3733732.4%29.9%29.7%33.7%37.8%36.4%35.6%32.7%30.9%32.9%Low +2.5 pts0.870Not enough data
1m1½fAll going12 to 15 runners2330221.7%30.6%34.8%33.4%43.5%36.0%21.7%25.7%21.1%22.8%High +7.5 pts0.621Not enough data
1m1½fGood8 to 11 runners2623830.8%29.7%23.1%33.8%46.2%36.5%33.8%33.8%31.0%32.8%High +9.7 pts0.459Not enough data
1m5fAll goingAll field sizes4146131.7%30.0%43.9%33.9%24.4%36.1%27.3%30.8%22.3%26.7%Middle +10.0 pts0.247Weak or none
1m5fGoodAll field sizes2326330.4%30.4%47.8%33.4%21.7%36.2%25.0%30.7%23.2%26.2%Middle +14.4 pts0.251Not enough data
1m5fAll going12 to 15 runners2228545.5%31.0%36.4%33.6%18.2%35.4%29.5%22.9%17.8%23.2%Low +14.5 pts0.186Not enough data

Flat races at Ballinrobe with 8 or more runners and a full draw, since 21 June 2016. Runners are split into low, middle and high thirds by stall order among the horses that ran. Win % is the share of races each third won; expected % is its share by chance given the field sizes. Top-3 % is the share of runners in that third who finished in the first three, against the chance rate. Going groups: fast is good to firm or firmer, soft is good to soft, yielding, soft and heavy. Bias rating uses a chi-square test of winners by third against chance (2 degrees of freedom): Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, Moderate p below 0.05, Weak or none p of 0.05 or more, and Not enough data fewer than 40 races. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Ballinrobe draw bias: since 2016 v the last three seasons

All distances12931.0%35.7%33.3%30.0%33.9%36.1%Weak or none4723.4%36.2%40.4%Weak or noneNo clear lean in either period
1m1½f6028.3%31.7%40.0%30.1%33.6%36.3%Weak or none3023.3%33.3%43.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races
1m5f4131.7%43.9%24.4%30.0%33.9%36.1%Weak or none1723.5%41.2%35.3%Not enough dataToo few recent races

Last three seasons means races since 1 January 2024. Is it current? compares the third that led over the whole window with its record lately: Holding means within 2 points of its long-run edge, Stronger or Weaker lately means more than 2 points either way, Gone lately means it no longer beats chance. 8 or more runners. Rows with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ballinrobe stall by stall at each distance

1m1½f154713.0%9.8%37.0%29.5%+7.5
1m1½f25235.8%9.8%28.8%29.3%-0.4
1m1½f35359.4%9.8%32.1%29.5%+2.6
1m1½f45259.6%9.8%21.2%29.3%-8.2
1m1½f557610.5%9.7%26.3%29.2%-2.9
1m1½f656610.7%9.6%35.7%28.9%+6.8
1m1½f76035.0%9.8%35.0%29.3%+5.7
1m1½f858712.1%9.8%29.3%29.3%0.0

Stall is the stall number drawn. Every distance with 60 or more races of 8 or more runners since 2016; stalls with fewer than 50 runs are hidden. Top-3 % is steadier than win % for a single stall, so read it first.

Ballinrobe draw by distance, 8 or more runners

All distances9430.9%30.2%34.0%33.7%35.1%36.1%28.0%28.9%25.5%
1m1½f5626.8%30.3%32.1%33.6%41.1%36.1%28.0%29.9%26.3%
1m5f2937.9%30.4%34.5%33.6%27.6%36.0%28.3%28.4%23.9%

Flat races at Ballinrobe with 8 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Win % is the share of races won by each third of the draw expected % is the share that third would win by chance given the field sizes run. Thirds are set by stall order among the horses that ran, so non-runners do not shift them. Place % is per runner. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Ballinrobe draw thirds overall, 8 or more runners

Low9430.9%30.2%9.3%3112928.0%
Middle9434.0%33.7%9.2%3463228.9%
High9435.1%36.1%8.9%3723325.5%

All distances pooled. Strike rate is wins per runner in that third. BSP figures are not shown because the window starts before March 2024.

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Ballinrobe draw by distance, all field sizes

All distances12230.3%30.0%31.1%32.7%38.5%37.3%
1m1½f7626.3%30.1%28.9%32.5%44.7%37.5%
1m5f3435.3%30.3%32.4%33.0%32.4%36.7%

Every Flat race at Ballinrobe with 3 or more runners since 1 January 2019. Small fields dilute any draw effect, so compare with the 8 or more runners table. Distances with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ballinrobe draw by field size

3 to 7 runnersAll distances2828.6%29.5%21.4%29.5%50.0%41.0%
8 to 11 runnersAll distances5226.9%29.8%34.6%33.8%38.5%36.5%
12 to 15 runnersAll distances4235.7%30.7%33.3%33.6%31.0%35.8%
3 to 7 runners1m1½f2025.0%29.3%20.0%29.3%55.0%41.3%
8 to 11 runners1m1½f3429.4%30.1%29.4%33.6%41.2%36.3%
12 to 15 runners1m1½f2222.7%30.6%36.4%33.5%40.9%35.9%

Field size is the number of runners that took part. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

Ballinrobe draw by going, 8 or more runners

GoodAll distances6827.9%30.1%38.2%36.3%33.8%
Good to soft or yieldingAll distances2441.7%30.5%20.8%35.5%37.5%
Good1m1½f4425.0%30.1%45.5%36.3%29.5%

Official going grouped into bands (yielding counts with good to soft). All-weather races show as AW. Cells with fewer than 20 races are hidden.

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Ballinrobe 1m1½f: win % by draw third, since 2016 v last three seasons, 8 or more runners
Since 2016Since 2024Expected by chance
0%20%40%60%80%LowMiddleHighSince 2016 Low: 28.3%Since 2016 Middle: 31.7%Since 2016 High: 40%Since 2024 Low: 23.3%Since 2024 Middle: 33.3%Since 2024 High: 43.3%Expected by chance Low: 30.1%Expected by chance Middle: 33.6%Expected by chance High: 36.3%

Win % of races by Draw third

Ballinrobe win % of races by draw third and distance, 8 or more runners
Low thirdMiddle thirdHigh third
0%20%40%60%80%1m1½f1m5fLow third 1m1½f: 26.8%Low third 1m5f: 37.9%Middle third 1m1½f: 32.1%Middle third 1m5f: 34.5%High third 1m1½f: 41.1%High third 1m5f: 27.6%

Win % of races by Distance

Latest Flat winners at Ballinrobe and their draw

20 Jul 26Nuit (IRE) silksNuit (IRE)6Middle91m5f1.73
20 Jul 26Reflectionist (FR) silksReflectionist (FR)6Middle111m5f51.00
20 Jul 26War Rooms (IRE) silksWar Rooms (IRE)7Middle91m5f5.00
20 Jul 26Lady Arwen (GB) silksLady Arwen (GB)9High121m1½f11.00
20 Jul 26Nephin Mountain (IRE) silksNephin Mountain (IRE)1Low91m1½f6.50
20 Jul 26Guinelot (FR) silksGuinelot (FR)5Middle91m1½f5.50
20 Jul 26She's Ideal (IRE) silksShe's Ideal (IRE)6Middle91m1½f7.50
22 Jun 26Deressa (IRE) silksDeressa (IRE)2Low81m5f8.00
22 Jun 26Daboya (IRE) silksDaboya (IRE)3Low131m5f7.00
22 Jun 26Rodeo Blues (IRE) silksRodeo Blues (IRE)6Middle141m1½f3.25
22 Jun 26Merlin The Wizard (GB) silksMerlin The Wizard (GB)6Middle101m1½f4.50
22 Jun 26Harana (IRE) silksHarana (IRE)3Low101m1½f3.00
22 Jun 26Wonderfulwonderful (IRE) silksWonderfulwonderful (IRE)2Low61m1½f6.00
22 Jun 26Femme Beauty (IRE) silksFemme Beauty (IRE)1Low71m1½f2.62
8 May 26Satono Chevalier (IRE) silksSatono Chevalier (IRE)5Middle141m5f26.00
8 May 26Trojan Fighter (GB) silksTrojan Fighter (GB)4Middle101m5f2.62
8 May 26Tero d'Rosa (IRE) silksTero d'Rosa (IRE)6Middle141m1½f7.00
8 May 26Lough Leane (IRE) silksLough Leane (IRE)3Low91m1½f5.50
8 May 26A Pretty Penny (IRE) silksA Pretty Penny (IRE)5Middle131m1½f7.50
8 May 26Marmeladova (IRE) silksMarmeladova (IRE)10High91m1½f13.00

The 20 most recent Flat races at Ballinrobe in the data with a full draw.

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Is there a draw bias at Ballinrobe?

Over 1m1½f, the most-run trip at Ballinrobe, the draw rates weak or none from 60 races. It stands out most over 1m5f, where the middle third has won 43.9% against 33.9% by chance (rated weak or none).

Can Ballinrobe's small Flat sample show a draw bias by distance?

Few Ballinrobe trips reach the 20-race minimum, so most splits are hidden. The pooled figure across all distances is the steadier guide.

How do going and field size change the draw at Ballinrobe?

The bias matrix gives every Ballinrobe trip rows for fast, good and soft ground and for 8 to 11, 12 to 15 and 16 or more runners, each with its own rating. Read the race count before the percentages.

Is the Ballinrobe draw bias still current?

The recency table sets each trip's record since 2016 beside the last three seasons, from 2024. Over 1m1½f the check reads too few recent races, from 30 recent races.

How is the bias rating worked out?

Winners from each draw third are tested against the share chance would give them, using a chi-square test. Strong means p below 0.01 from 100 or more races, moderate p below 0.05, and fewer than 40 races is not enough data.

Questions people ask

Is there a draw bias at Ballinrobe?

Over 1m1½f, the most-run trip at Ballinrobe, the draw rates weak or none, with low draws winning 28.3% of 60 races against 30.1% by chance. It stands out most over 1m5f, where the middle third has won 43.9% against 33.9% (rated weak or none).

Which stall is best at Ballinrobe over 1m1½f?

Stall 1 has the best top-three record over 1m1½f at Ballinrobe since 2016, placing in 37% of 54 runs against 28.2% by chance. Single stalls swing on small samples, so the stall grid lists every stall with 50 or more runs at each trip.

Is a low or high draw better at Ballinrobe?

Across all distances since 2016, low draws have won 31% of Ballinrobe races against 30% by chance, and high draws 33.3% against 36.1%. The answer changes by trip, so check the bias matrix row for the race distance.

Does the draw matter in Ballinrobe's summer Flat handicaps?

Ballinrobe's thirds sit close to chance across all distances pooled, and the sample is small. Read the race count before leaning on any single row or going band.

How often are the Ballinrobe draw figures updated?

The figures are rebuilt every night from the RaceWatch results database, and the latest results included are from 15 October 2026. The bias matrix, ratings and stall grid use races since 2016, and the detailed thirds tables further down use races since 2019.

More free data

Draw bias at every courseCompare the thirds course by courseBallinrobe course guideResults, trainers and jockeys at the courseBallinrobe racecardsThe next meeting's full cardSligo draw biasThe same thirds at another courseWhat is draw bias?How stall position shapes a race

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