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Win rate by handicap mark change

The current-season columns update after every racing day.

297 handicap runners declared today on a different mark from last time; season columns update daily · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
18.2%
Up 5lb+, October 2025
8.1%
Down 3lb+, October 2025
220
Runs raised 5lb+
18.2%

In October 2025 British and Irish jumps handicaps, horses raised 5lb or more won 18.2% from 220 runs, against 8.1% for horses dropped 3lb or more.Sample: 220 runs raised 5lb or more · Window: Ten seasons, with October 2025 cut · Source: RaceWatch results database (GB and IRE), official ratings, Industry SP, Betfair SP

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Win rate by mark change, jumps handicaps

Down 7lb or more6.8%8,1525567.3%6035.7%1764410-
Down 4 to 6lb7.3%26,7011,9476.4%1,9497.8%54812443-
Down 1 to 3lb9.5%91,9168,75510.1%10,2979.6%3,0351,039291-
Same mark11.4%53,0916,07111.8%5,05011.7%1,482594173-
Up 1 to 3lb13.5%26,3733,56514.1%2,92214.4%751412108-
Up 4 to 6lb15.0%18,6362,80214.7%1,95216.9%58628699-
Up 7lb or more16.4%16,7622,74518.6%1,48718.9%38627673-

British and Irish jumps handicaps. Change = official rating today minus official rating at the previous jumps run. Ten seasons = 2016/17 to 2025/26. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Mark change, October 2025 jumps handicaps

Down 7lb or more7.3%554-
Down 4 to 6lb8.5%15313-
Down 1 to 3lb10.0%86787-
Same mark11.6%52461-
Up 1 to 3lb14.7%23835-
Up 4 to 6lb12.8%13317-
Up 7lb or more20.5%13227-

Bands under 50 runs flagged.

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Progressive v exposed, jumps handicaps, ten seasons

Down 7lb or more4.6%9447.0%5,31643370
Down 4 to 6lb7.2%5,5347.2%13,650397978
Down 1 to 3lb9.6%14,7408.8%49,7171,4194,379
Same mark12.7%8,71110.3%26,2521,1062,691
Up 1 to 3lb14.5%3,81712.0%13,7355551,644
Up 4 to 6lb19.0%2,78412.7%9,5975281,217
Up 7lb or more21.0%2,72713.3%8,5525741,134

Lightly raced = 7 or fewer previous British or Irish runs; exposed = 15 or more.

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Win rate by mark change, Flat handicaps

Down 7lb or more6.3%4,1082597.8%3223.1%195256-
Down 4 to 6lb5.3%23,6701,2634.1%1,9924.4%1,3298159-
Down 1 to 3lb8.2%199,20416,3208.5%22,3548.5%16,1081,9031,371-
Same mark11.3%125,32814,12211.6%11,98312.4%8,4371,3951,042-
Up 1 to 3lb13.4%55,3877,40213.8%5,91713.9%3,904817541-
Up 4 to 6lb16.4%32,4595,33317.1%3,14515.8%1,987538314-
Up 7lb or more14.2%11,2271,59616.1%1,07614.9%717173107-

British and Irish Flat handicaps; previous run must also be on the Flat.

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Progressive v exposed, Flat handicaps, 2016 to 2025

Down 7lb or more4.3%9857.1%2,37642168
Down 4 to 6lb5.2%9,2085.5%8,551478469
Down 1 to 3lb8.5%48,0917.8%102,2274,0897,950
Same mark12.7%26,70210.3%66,2883,3956,826
Up 1 to 3lb15.8%12,87511.7%27,7052,0353,242
Up 4 to 6lb20.3%8,86713.5%14,6881,7971,982
Up 7lb or more17.7%4,00410.1%4,419710446

Lightly raced = 7 or fewer previous British or Irish runs; exposed = 15 or more.

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Win rate by mark change, ten seasons
NH handicapsFlat handicaps
0%5%10%15%20%Down 7lb Down 4 toDown 1 toSame markUp 1 to 3Up 4 to 6Up 7lb orNH handicaps Down 7lb or more: 6.8%6.8%NH handicaps Down 4 to 6lb: 7.3%7.3%NH handicaps Down 1 to 3lb: 9.5%9.5%NH handicaps Same mark: 11.4%11.4%NH handicaps Up 1 to 3lb: 13.5%13.5%NH handicaps Up 4 to 6lb: 15%15%NH handicaps Up 7lb or more: 16.4%16.4%Flat handicaps Down 7lb or more: 6.3%6.3%Flat handicaps Down 4 to 6lb: 5.3%5.3%Flat handicaps Down 1 to 3lb: 8.2%8.2%Flat handicaps Same mark: 11.3%11.3%Flat handicaps Up 1 to 3lb: 13.4%13.4%Flat handicaps Up 4 to 6lb: 16.4%16.4%Flat handicaps Up 7lb or more: 14.2%14.2%

Win % by Mark change

Mark changes on today's card

Members see each handicapper's official rating history on the racecard, with RWS scores and FormLines+ for the race it ran in last.

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How does a change in the weights affect win rate?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Do horses raised in the weights still win?

Horses up in the weights are often in form, and the raised bands show how often they win again despite the higher mark.

Are horses dropped in the weights more likely to win?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Do progressive horses cope with rises better than exposed horses?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

How do handicap reassessments work?

Handicappers review each horse after a run and publish a new mark, which usually applies from a set date after publication.

Questions people ask

Does a horse raised 5lb after winning still have a good chance next time?

In October 2025 jumps handicaps, horses raised 5lb or more won 18.2% of their runs. The ten-season table shows the long-run figure for each size of rise, jumps and Flat.

Are horses dropped 3lb or more in the handicap more likely to win?

Not on the October 2025 jumps figures, where horses dropped 3lb or more won 8.1%. A drop often follows poor runs, and many of those horses are out of form.

Why can a falling handicap mark be a bad sign rather than a good one?

The handicapper drops a horse because it has been running below its mark. Until the horse shows a return to form, a lower mark alone rarely turns it into a winner.

Should I treat a horse up 10lb differently from one up 5lb?

The up 7lb or more band shows how the biggest risers do against the smaller rises. Check whether the horse is lightly raced, since progressive types cope better with large rises.

More free data

Win rate by rating bandHandicap win rate by official ratingNext time outWin rate by last finishLast-time-out winnersHow winners do next timeHandicap favouritesFavourites in handicapsRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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