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Do last-time-out winners win again?

Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
19.1%
Next-start win rate
123,008
Next starts analysed

Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish horses that won last time out won 19.1% of 123,008 next startsSample: 123,008 next starts · Window: Ten seasons to 2025 (jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26, Flat 2016 to 2025) · Source: RaceWatch results database (GB and IRE), Industry SP, Betfair SP

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Last-time-out winners next time, jumps

All last-time-out winners50,13220.7%10,3944,97020.2%1,45121.2%1,003307-
All other runners391,1749.7%37,84736,96010.2%12,44810.2%3,7781,265-
Won at 2/1 or shorter17,76725.7%4,5671,80824.7%49328.6%447141-
Won at 9/4 to 5/126,03817.8%4,6342,57118.0%74016.8%463124-
Won at 11/2 to 10/121,29313.1%2,7801,91912.6%62312.8%24180-
Won at 11/1 to 20/116,6818.4%1,4011,4557.7%48410.1%11249-
Won at over 20/121,9643.8%8312,1524.0%7345.6%8641-
Today in a chase42,06014.1%5,9283,81214.1%1,02116.1%538164-
Today in a hurdle58,52513.3%7,7615,83513.2%1,98213.1%770259-
Today in a bumper3,20916.5%53026216.0%7416.2%4212-
Back within 14 days14,59716.4%2,3961,17617.3%45020.7%20393-
15 to 28 days since win31,11715.1%4,7042,94614.9%87815.0%439132-
29 to 60 days since win30,29814.0%4,2463,18313.9%92313.4%444124-
61 to 120 days since win9,56310.2%9739649.1%31111.3%8835-
121 days or more since win18,21910.4%1,9001,64010.7%5159.9%17651-
Handicap, same or lower mark35,4448.1%2,8603,4128.2%9858.4%27983-
Handicap, up 1 to 3lb5,34113.6%72961012.8%13713.9%7819-
Handicap, up 4 to 6lb11,92616.8%2,0031,34216.5%42817.3%22174-
Handicap, up 7lb or more12,92919.1%2,4681,18821.5%32019.7%25563-

British and Irish jumps runs where the horse won its previous British or Irish start (any code). Winning price = Industry SP of the previous win. Ten seasons = 2016/17 to 2025/26. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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October 2025 jumps winners next time

Won on seasonal return12632.5%9535.8%41-
Won after a summer run31115.1%16214.2%47-
Debut winners3815.8%1921.1%6Under 50 runs

Every British and Irish jumps winner in October 2025, followed to its next run in any code.

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Last-time-out winners next time, Flat

All last-time-out winners72,87618.0%13,1317,55218.1%6,66118.1%1,3691,208-
All other runners599,6949.8%58,72460,83910.0%51,67710.2%6,0915,259-
Won at 2/1 or shorter17,69023.1%4,0801,93823.4%1,94923.1%454451-
Won at 9/4 to 5/128,30318.3%5,1902,91018.9%2,54917.2%549439-
Won at 11/2 to 10/117,69214.9%2,6421,69215.0%1,39515.6%253218-
Won at 11/1 to 20/18,68012.7%1,1048769.9%67312.9%8787-
Won at over 20/14,4978.3%3754769.5%4078.4%4534-
Today on all-weather26,05319.5%5,0922,72020.1%2,02820.4%546414-
Today on turf50,81316.3%8,3005,17216.3%4,94816.5%842816-
Back within 14 days22,63219.9%4,5052,25120.3%1,86221.2%456394-
15 to 28 days since win27,55717.2%4,7472,77117.6%2,46916.9%488417-
29 to 60 days since win15,31816.6%2,5411,71816.5%1,48215.3%283227-
61 to 120 days since win3,61513.6%49239114.8%37516.5%5862-
121 days or more since win7,74414.3%1,10776113.5%78816.5%103130-
Handicap, same or lower mark5,52413.0%71848815.0%57416.6%7395-
Handicap, up 1 to 3lb13,91815.4%2,1451,61314.9%1,18715.2%241180-
Handicap, up 4 to 6lb25,35418.1%4,5942,59118.6%1,62317.0%482276-
Handicap, up 7lb or more8,11417.6%1,42585119.0%55317.9%16299-

British and Irish Flat runs, turf and all-weather.

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Next-time win rate by winning price last time
NH ten seasonsFlat 2016 to 2025
0%10%20%30%40%Won at 2/Won at 9/Won at 11Won at 11Won at ovNH ten seasons Won at 2/1 or shorter: 25.7%25.7%NH ten seasons Won at 9/4 to 5/1: 17.8%17.8%NH ten seasons Won at 11/2 to 10/1: 13.1%13.1%NH ten seasons Won at 11/1 to 20/1: 8.4%8.4%NH ten seasons Won at over 20/1: 3.8%3.8%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won at 2/1 or shorter: 23.1%23.1%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won at 9/4 to 5/1: 18.3%18.3%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won at 11/2 to 10/1: 14.9%14.9%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won at 11/1 to 20/1: 12.7%12.7%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won at over 20/1: 8.3%8.3%

Win % by Price of the last win

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How often does a last-time-out winner win again?

British and Irish last-time-out winners won 19.1% of 123,008 next starts over ten seasons

Does the winning price matter?

The main tables split last-time-out winners by winning price, from 2/1 or shorter to over 20/1, each with runs, strike rate

Does race type matter next time?

Jumps winners are split by whether they run next in a chase, hurdle or bumper, and Flat winners by turf or all-weather.

Does a quick return help?

Days since the win run from within 14 days to 121 days or more, so a quick follow-up can be compared with a return after a break.

What happens after a rise in the weights?

Handicap winners are split by the change in mark, from the same or lower up to 7lb or more

Questions people ask

Do last-time-out winners win again?

Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish last-time-out winners won 19.1% of their next starts.

Does a weight rise stop a winner following up?

Handicap winners are split into same or lower mark, up 1 to 3lb, up 4 to 6lb and up 7lb or more.

Which seasons are covered?

Jumps figures cover ten seasons from 2016/17 to 2025/26 and Flat figures cover 2016 to 2025. Current season columns update after every racing day.

More free data

Next time outHorses to follow from recent racesC and D winnersHow often they win againWeight changesUp or down in the handicapDays since last runWin rate by days offRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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