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Next time out: how horses do by last finishing position

Ten seasons of next-start results by previous finishing position, beaten distance and class of race, with the current season beside them. The season columns update after every racing day.

2026/27 jumps and 2026 Flat columns update daily · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
19.1%
Last-time winners next time
17.9%
Last-time seconds next time
123,118
Runs by last-time seconds
17.9%

Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish horses that finished second last time won 17.9% of their next starts, against 19.1% for last-time-out winners.Sample: 123,118 next starts after a second · Window: Ten seasons to 2025 (jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26, Flat 2016 to 2025) · Source: RaceWatch results database (GB and IRE), Industry SP, Betfair SP

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Next time out by previous position, jumps

Won20.7%50,13210,39420.2%21.2%4,9701,0031,451307-
Second17.9%49,8418,93119.0%18.5%4,9249341,512279-
Third14.1%48,8426,88914.0%15.4%4,8306771,472227-
Fourth11.0%46,0795,08511.6%11.5%4,5355251,418163-
Fifth9.3%40,9613,79110.3%9.9%3,9504061,283127-
Sixth to ninth6.9%103,0807,1007.1%7.0%9,5336803,407239-
Tenth or worse4.6%48,7092,2264.9%5.9%4,2492091,730102-
Did not finish7.1%53,6623,8257.0%7.9%4,9393471,626128-

British and Irish jumps runs by the horse's finishing position on its previous British or Irish start in any code. Did not finish = pulled up, fell, unseated and similar. Source: RaceWatch results database.

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Next time out by beaten distance, jumps

Beaten under 1 length19.0%11,3922,15918.7%35867-
Beaten 1 to 3 lengths17.4%22,5903,92918.5%756140-
Beaten 3 to 6 lengths15.4%31,1754,81116.8%1,077181-
Beaten 6 to 10 lengths13.4%39,2005,24612.6%1,322166-
Beaten 10 to 20 lengths10.7%77,3238,23810.9%2,504272-
Beaten 20 lengths or more6.2%155,7169,6316.5%4,805311-

Beaten horses only; distance behind the winner at the finish of the previous run.

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October 2025 runs, next time in November

Won22.5%28564-
Second18.0%27850-
Third11.2%25929-
Fourth9.5%22221-
Fifth8.9%19017-
Sixth to ninth5.0%44422-
Tenth or worse5.5%1639-
Did not finish7.2%19414-

Jumps runs in November 2025 by horses whose previous run was in October 2025.

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Next time out by previous position, Flat

Won18.0%72,87613,13118.1%18.1%7,5521,3696,6611,208-
Second17.8%73,27713,04817.7%17.7%7,6071,3466,5921,170-
Third14.0%72,76010,15114.4%15.1%7,5481,0876,543991-
Fourth11.7%71,6488,39611.9%11.9%7,4128826,387758-
Fifth9.7%68,6886,6909.8%9.8%7,1777016,029590-
Sixth to ninth7.2%206,58014,8567.2%7.4%21,2391,53217,6231,310-
Tenth or worse5.2%102,7515,3225.5%5.1%9,5165248,188418-
Did not finish6.5%3,9902615.6%7.0%3401931522-

British and Irish Flat, turf and all-weather.

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Next time out by beaten distance, Flat

Beaten under 1 length17.7%45,1117,97118.2%4,063741-
Beaten 1 to 3 lengths14.4%104,23914,96114.7%9,4921,395-
Beaten 3 to 6 lengths11.0%144,12015,79711.5%12,9891,497-
Beaten 6 to 10 lengths8.2%128,26610,5368.2%11,062907-
Beaten 10 to 20 lengths5.8%120,4966,9545.5%9,656531-
Beaten 20 lengths or more4.2%53,4262,2424.0%4,100166-

Beaten horses only; distance behind the winner at the finish of the previous run.

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Next-time win rate by previous finishing position
NH ten seasonsFlat 2016 to 2025
0%10%20%30%40%WonSecondThirdFourthFifthSixth to Tenth or Did not fNH ten seasons Won: 20.7%20.7%NH ten seasons Second: 17.9%17.9%NH ten seasons Third: 14.1%14.1%NH ten seasons Fourth: 11%11%NH ten seasons Fifth: 9.3%9.3%NH ten seasons Sixth to ninth: 6.9%6.9%NH ten seasons Tenth or worse: 4.6%4.6%NH ten seasons Did not finish: 7.1%7.1%Flat 2016 to 2025 Won: 18%18%Flat 2016 to 2025 Second: 17.8%17.8%Flat 2016 to 2025 Third: 14%14%Flat 2016 to 2025 Fourth: 11.7%11.7%Flat 2016 to 2025 Fifth: 9.7%9.7%Flat 2016 to 2025 Sixth to ninth: 7.2%7.2%Flat 2016 to 2025 Tenth or worse: 5.2%5.2%Flat 2016 to 2025 Did not finish: 6.5%6.5%

Win % by Previous run

Race class of the previous run, British racing, ten seasons

NH, last run in Class 116.1%15,2872,464-
NH, last run in Class 213.3%18,9682,517-
NH, last run in Class 313.6%41,4685,645-
NH, last run in Class 411.9%114,43613,663-
NH, last run in Class 511.0%77,7638,583-
NH, last run in Class 67.5%8,298625-
NH, last run in Class 73.6%562-
Flat, last run in Class 113.3%20,5222,730-
Flat, last run in Class 211.4%42,2284,813-
Flat, last run in Class 311.4%38,8594,448-
Flat, last run in Class 411.9%107,21212,781-
Flat, last run in Class 511.3%171,01919,366-
Flat, last run in Class 610.1%145,81214,735-
Flat, last run in Class 77.4%1,830136-

British runs where the previous run carried a class number.

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Runs that matter, ten seasons

NH, unplaced, beaten 5 lengths or less12.8%8,1491,040-
NH, unplaced, beaten more than 5 lengths7.4%230,58317,156-
NH, unplaced in Class 1 or 2 or pattern race, beaten 5 lengths or less16.2%1,108179-
NH, placed second to fourth, beaten 2 lengths or less18.4%24,7934,554-
Flat, unplaced, beaten 5 lengths or less11.0%123,79513,678-
Flat, unplaced, beaten more than 5 lengths6.6%325,83221,585-
Flat, unplaced in Class 1 or 2 or pattern race, beaten 5 lengths or less12.4%15,7681,949-
Flat, placed second to fourth, beaten 2 lengths or less16.6%96,76116,077-

Unplaced = fourth or worse. A run can appear in more than one row.

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See how every race has worked out

Members get FormLines+, which follows every runner from a race and marks strong and franked form on today's racecard.

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How do horses do next time out by finishing position?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Do seconds and thirds win more often next time than winners?

Seconds and thirds sit beside last-time-out winners

Does beaten distance matter more than finishing position?

Next-start figures are split by beaten distance, from under a length to well beaten, whatever the finishing position.

Does the class of the previous race change next-time results?

Horses are grouped by the class of their previous run, since a close finish in a Class 1 race differs from one in Class 5.

Which unplaced runs are worth noting?

Unplaced horses beaten five lengths or less, including those in Class 1 or 2 and pattern races, are split out, since finishing position can hide a close effort.

How does FormLines+ build on next time out?

FormLines+ follows every runner from a race to show how the form has worked out since, which extends the next time out view to a whole race.

Questions people ask

Do horses that finished second last time win more often than last-time-out winners?

Over ten seasons to 2025, last-time seconds won 17.9% of their next starts against 19.1% for last-time winners.

Is a third-place finish a good or a bad sign for next time?

Beaten distance often tells you more, so check the beaten distance table as well.

What does next time out mean when a horse switches race type?

Next time out is simply the horse's following start in the same code, whatever the race type or class. The class table helps separate horses stepping up from those dropping down.

How can I tell which beaten horses from a race are worth following?

Horses beaten a short distance, especially in higher-class races, have the stronger next-time figures on the unplaced table. FormLines+ then shows how the rest of that race has run since.

More free data

Last-time-out winnersHow winners do next timeWeight changesWin rate after a rise or drop in the weightsDays since last runWin rate by time offWho's backHorses returning todayRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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Updated