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Handicap favourites win rate

How often favourites win handicaps compared with non-handicaps, jumps and Flat, split by field size and class. This season's figures update after every racing day.

8449 races so far this season · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
29.8%
Handicap favourites, jumps 2025/26
46%
Non-handicap favourites
27.9%
Flat handicap favourites
8,449
Races this season
29.8%

In the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season, handicap favourites won 29.8% and non-handicap favourites won 46.0%, from 3,277 and 2,135 favourite runs.Sample: 3,277 handicap favourite runs · Window: 2025/26 jumps season, with ten-season and Flat 2016 to 2025 comparisons · Source: RaceWatch results database, Industry SP

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Handicap favourite win % by field size, ten seasons
JumpsFlat
0%10%20%30%40%2 to 67 to 1011 to 1415 or morJumps 2 to 6: 38.6%38.6%Jumps 7 to 10: 28.5%28.5%Jumps 11 to 14: 24.1%24.1%Jumps 15 or more: 19.7%19.7%Flat 2 to 6: 37.6%37.6%Flat 7 to 10: 29.2%29.2%Flat 11 to 14: 23.7%23.7%Flat 15 or more: 18.8%18.8%

Fav win % by Runners

Handicap v non-handicap favourites

HandicapJumps2025/2629.8%2,9943,277976-
Non-handicapJumps2025/2646.0%2,0472,135982-
HandicapJumps2016/17 to 2025/2628.9%28,75931,6539,152-
Non-handicapJumps2016/17 to 2025/2644.6%21,86522,79910,162-
HandicapFlat2016 to 202527.9%50,40455,42815,483-
Non-handicapFlat2016 to 202540.3%25,97227,31110,998-

British and Irish races. Handicap = race title contains handicap or nursery. Favourite = lowest Industry SP, joint favourites all count.

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Handicap favourites by field size and class

Field size 2 to 6Jumps38.6%7,0987,5772,923-
Field size 7 to 10Jumps28.5%11,96213,1963,762-
Field size 11 to 14Jumps24.1%6,5267,3001,760-
Field size 15 or moreJumps19.7%3,1733,580707-
Field size 2 to 6Flat37.6%7,9688,4773,189-
Field size 7 to 10Flat29.2%22,81224,9997,293-
Field size 11 to 14Flat23.7%16,05517,8924,236-
Field size 15 or moreFlat18.8%3,5694,060765-
Class 1Jumps19.5%612699136-
Class 2Jumps26.8%1,8752,091561-
Class 3Jumps32.7%5,0355,5031,802-
Class 4Jumps31.4%8,5999,3722,944-
Class 5Jumps30.2%6,9337,5662,282-
Class 2Flat26.0%3,4273,832998-
Class 3Flat28.8%4,1324,5011,298-
Class 4Flat30.1%9,1289,9452,994-
Class 5Flat29.6%12,00313,1473,885-
Class 6Flat28.2%14,76916,1444,546-
Class 7Flat27.5%17820456-

Handicaps only, jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26 and Flat 2016 to 2025. Class applies to British races only.

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This season so far

HandicapJumps2026/27 to date27.8%1,0311,127313-
Non-handicapJumps2026/27 to date42.7%583637272-
HandicapFlat2026 to date28.7%4,5235,0111,437-
Non-handicapFlat2026 to date42.9%2,3122,4371,046-

Jumps from the start of the 2026/27 season (26 April 2026 in Britain, 3 May 2026 in Ireland) and Flat from 1 January 2026 to the last results date.

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Today's handicap favourites

Members see market moves across 20+ bookmakers and RWS scores on every handicap runner in today's racecards.

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How often do favourites win handicaps?

Handicap favourites won 28.9% over ten jumps seasons and 27.9% on the Flat from 2016 to 2025.

How do jumps handicaps compare with non-handicaps?

In 2025/26, jumps handicap favourites won 29.8% against 46% for non-handicap favourites, from 3,277 and 2,135 runs.

What about Flat handicaps?

Flat non-handicap favourites won 40.3% from 2016 to 2025, against 27.9% for handicap favourites.

Are handicap favourites better in small fields?

The field size and class table splits handicap favourites by number of runners, so the effect of a big field can be read row by row.

Does race class change the handicap favourite's chance?

Class bands sit in the same table, with runs, strike rate

Questions people ask

How often do handicap favourites win?

Over ten jumps seasons, handicap favourites in Britain and Ireland won 28.9%. On the Flat from 2016 to 2025 the figure was 27.9%.

Why do handicap favourites win less often?

The handicapper sets weights to give every runner a chance, which narrows the gap between the favourite and the rest. Non-handicap favourites face no such weight adjustment.

How did handicap favourites do in 2025/26?

In the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season, handicap favourites won 29.8% of 3,277 runs. Non-handicap favourites won 46% of 2,135 runs over the same season.

Do joint favourites count?

Yes, every joint favourite is counted as a favourite run, and a favourite is the lowest Industry SP. Cuts with small samples are flagged.

How often is the handicap favourites page updated?

The this-season table updates after every racing day, with 8,449 races so far across jumps and Flat. The ten-season figures stay fixed at jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26 and Flat 2016 to 2025.

More free data

Favourite win rateThe overall favourite recordFavourites by field sizeSmall fields against big fieldsWin rate by classHow class changes the chanceWeight changesUp or down in the handicapRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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