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Slow-starting jumps trainers in October

Jumps yards whose October strike rate falls below their own November to April figure across five Octobers, with a month-by-month strip. The live table updates after every racing day.

11 listed yards have run 10 or more times this season · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
-10.3 pts
Most negative October edge
0.9%
That yard's October win %
11.2%
Its Nov to Apr win %
27
Slow-starting yards
-10.3 pts

Sue Smith won 10.3 points less often in October (0.9%) than in its own November to April runs (11.2%) across 2021 to 2025, the slowest start among yards with 60 or more October runs.Sample: 27 slow-starting yards listed · Window: Octobers 2021 to 2025 · Source: RaceWatch results database, British and Irish jumps

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Most negative October edge
Sue Smith-10.3Henry Daly-8.4Christian Williams-6.2Sandy Thomson-6.1Stuart Edmunds-5Philip Kirby-4.7Warren Greatrex-4.6Ryan Potter-4.6Jane Williams-4.5Nicky Henderson-4.5Tom Lacey-3.7Susan Corbett-3.1John Patrick Ryan-2.10L J Morgan-2.10Dr Richard Newland-2.10

Points

Slow starters

Sue Smith-10.30.9%11.2%107464
Henry Daly-8.47.5%15.9%80734
Christian Williams-6.24.3%10.5%162686
Sandy Thomson-6.16.7%12.8%89631
Stuart Edmunds-5.010.4%15.4%115602
Philip Kirby-4.76.7%11.4%104553
Warren Greatrex-4.67.4%12.0%68739
Ryan Potter-4.64.2%8.8%71352
Jane Williams-4.511.7%16.2%94512
Nicky Henderson-4.516.0%20.5%1001,728
Tom Lacey-3.713.9%17.6%115693
Susan Corbett-3.16.7%9.8%60328
John Patrick Ryan-2.12.7%4.8%185587
L J Morgan-2.19.8%11.9%61494
Dr Richard Newland-2.112.7%14.8%102438
Tim Vaughan-1.97.4%9.3%108540
Denis Gerard Hogan-1.83.8%5.6%78480
C Byrnes-1.39.9%11.2%81501
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero-0.913.8%14.7%159982
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill-0.911.6%12.5%86674
Fergal O'Brien-0.815.3%16.1%3401,856
Dan Skelton-0.816.4%17.2%4693,151
Rebecca Curtis-0.410.8%11.2%65402
Mark Walford-0.410.3%10.7%87617
Lucinda Russell-0.314.9%15.2%2021,320
P J Rothwell-0.35.6%5.9%1951,303
Joe Tizzard-0.113.5%13.6%1551,191

British and Irish jumps, Octobers 2021 to 2025 against November to April of the 2021/22 to 2025/26 seasons. Min 60 October and 200 November to April runs. 30 most negative edges.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Monthly strike rate strip

Sue Smith10.2%7.9%---0.9%9.9%13.8%12.9%9.3%8.5%13.5%
Henry Daly11.5%----7.5%19.9%17.7%11.2%15.6%15.1%13.1%
Christian Williams12.0%15.0%9.3%10.9%6.9%4.3%6.7%9.3%8.4%13.2%13.9%12.1%
Sandy Thomson9.6%16.7%---6.7%14.5%14.0%17.2%13.5%9.5%8.0%
Stuart Edmunds8.6%---19.4%10.4%13.4%11.3%13.5%22.4%15.6%17.3%
Philip Kirby7.8%20.0%4.0%-6.1%6.7%14.5%9.6%11.6%12.2%12.8%5.6%
Warren Greatrex21.4%19.2%23.8%-17.4%7.4%14.6%15.0%11.2%9.0%7.8%13.5%
Ryan Potter9.7%7.9%7.9%6.7%11.8%4.2%8.3%13.5%4.3%5.5%8.5%10.5%
Jane Williams-----11.7%16.5%20.4%20.7%14.5%12.0%10.3%
Nicky Henderson24.8%23.2%14.0%16.0%35.9%16.0%26.3%20.9%19.2%18.3%18.2%19.3%
Tom Lacey25.6%12.8%20.0%20.8%16.0%13.9%16.3%14.0%16.5%19.1%19.8%20.8%
Susan Corbett14.0%17.2%---6.7%6.6%11.1%1.9%8.0%17.0%14.0%
John Patrick Ryan10.5%11.8%12.0%7.2%9.2%2.7%4.3%3.4%5.6%8.9%3.9%4.9%
L J Morgan25.3%13.3%10.0%8.3%8.3%9.8%10.7%9.3%15.3%18.4%11.4%6.0%
Dr Richard Newland19.4%19.1%13.6%5.2%4.7%12.7%9.3%13.0%20.3%10.0%26.8%12.7%
Tim Vaughan7.7%9.4%4.5%--7.4%6.5%9.2%8.9%10.4%8.6%12.5%
Denis Gerard Hogan7.7%12.3%9.1%12.2%5.3%3.8%0.0%5.9%4.0%7.6%9.5%5.4%
C Byrnes9.4%14.7%8.2%14.8%6.8%9.9%9.0%9.7%11.8%11.9%12.2%13.4%
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero16.1%13.0%9.7%18.2%14.3%13.8%17.2%9.7%13.1%14.7%14.5%17.9%
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill14.4%11.5%1.8%18.2%3.8%11.6%14.4%16.4%12.1%12.1%9.1%10.8%
Fergal O'Brien21.9%17.0%20.5%22.9%14.7%15.3%17.5%14.6%16.1%13.5%16.5%17.6%
Dan Skelton25.3%19.9%8.5%24.4%21.8%16.4%16.0%17.6%21.4%15.1%16.1%17.8%
Rebecca Curtis21.6%----10.8%12.5%7.5%8.0%7.4%14.5%17.7%
Mark Walford13.3%22.4%11.9%3.2%15.4%10.3%9.8%11.4%5.1%13.3%12.3%12.4%
Lucinda Russell9.5%7.8%7.8%2.9%15.3%14.9%18.1%13.9%15.6%13.1%18.2%11.8%
P J Rothwell5.7%5.5%5.1%9.5%8.6%5.6%7.1%5.4%6.3%6.7%3.8%6.4%
Joe Tizzard20.2%21.3%7.7%19.0%33.3%13.5%19.3%9.5%14.0%14.4%11.6%11.0%

Win % by month, 2021/22 to 2025/26 seasons. Months with under 20 runs left blank.

Slow starters this season

Dan Skelton22.6%1984
P J Rothwell2.8%136
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill13.6%322
Fergal O'Brien14.3%321
Joe Tizzard15.8%319
John Patrick Ryan6.3%116
Stuart Edmunds26.7%415
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero0.0%015
Christian Williams7.1%114
Tom Lacey0.0%011
Mrs Jane Williams9.1%111

Listed yards in 2026/27 to the last results date (October only once October starts), min 10 runs.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Yard form on today's card

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How is a slow start measured?

A slow start is a negative October edge: the yard's October strike rate minus its own November to April strike rate, over five Octobers from 2021 to 2025.

Which jumps yards are slowest to get going in October?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

When does each slow-starting yard pick up?

The monthly strike rate strip shows each slow starter's figure for every month from May to April, so the month it returns to form stands out.

How can you tell a slow start from a yard out of form?

A slow start repeats every October and recovers by winter, while a yard out of form sits below its normal level in any month.

How are slow starters doing this season?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Questions people ask

Which jumps yards are slow to get going in October?

Sue Smith has the most negative October edge over 2021 to 2025, at -10.3 points. The table lists 27 yards with a negative edge on enough runs.

Does a slow October start mean a yard is out of form?

Usually not, because the pattern repeats each year and the same yards recover from November. The monthly strip shows whether a yard's October dip is normal for it.

How many runs does a trainer need before the slow-start figure is reliable?

A yard needs 60 or more October runs across the five Octobers to appear on the table. Figures from fewer runs are too easily moved by one or two results.

When should I start trusting a slow-starting yard's runners again?

The monthly strip shows the month each yard's strike rate returns to its core-season level. For many slow starters that is November or December.

More free data

October trainer statsYards that start fastTrainers whose horses need a runYards that improve second timeSummer v winter trainersHalf-season swingsWhen yards returnEach yard's return monthRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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