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Do chase favourites win more than hurdle favourites?

Favourite strike rate over hurdles, fences and in bumpers for British and Irish jumps racing, last season, over ten seasons and in 2026/27 so far. The current season rows update after every racing day.

1621 jumps races so far in 2026/27 · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
37.9%
Hurdle favourites, 2025/26
33.6%
Chase favourites, 2025/26
34.5%
Bumper favourites, 2025/26
1,621
Races in 2026/27
33.6%

In the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season, hurdle favourites won 37.9% and chase favourites won 33.6%, from 3,165 and 1,850 favourite runs.Sample: 5,015 favourite runs · Window: 2025/26 jumps season, with 2016/17 to 2025/26 comparison · Source: RaceWatch results database, Industry SP

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Favourites by jumps race type

Chase2025/2633.6%1,7061,850622-
Hurdle2025/2637.9%2,9543,1651,199-
NH Flat2025/2634.5%381397137-
Chase2016/17 to 2025/2633.6%17,98619,5336,567-
Hurdle2016/17 to 2025/2636.4%28,61530,68811,156-
NH Flat2016/17 to 2025/2637.6%4,0234,2311,591-
Chase2026/27 to date35.9%511548197-
Hurdle2026/27 to date31.8%1,0121,094348-
NH Flat2026/27 to date31.5%9813041-

British and Irish jumps. Favourite = lowest Industry SP, joint favourites all count. NH Flat = bumpers. 2026/27 rows run to the last results date.

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Favourite win % by race type
2025/26Ten seasons2026/27 to date
0%10%20%30%40%ChaseHurdleNH Flat2025/26 Chase: 33.6%2025/26 Hurdle: 37.9%2025/26 NH Flat: 34.5%Ten seasons Chase: 33.6%Ten seasons Hurdle: 36.4%Ten seasons NH Flat: 37.6%2026/27 to date Chase: 35.9%2026/27 to date Hurdle: 31.8%2026/27 to date NH Flat: 31.5%

Fav win % by Race type

Favourites by race type, novice and handicap

ChaseHandicap2025/2630.9%1,3201,437444-
ChaseNovice2025/2643.4%237258112-
ChaseOther non-handicap2025/2642.6%14915566-
HurdleHandicap2025/2628.9%1,6741,840532-
HurdleNovice2025/2652.2%455464242-
HurdleOther non-handicap2025/2649.4%825861425-
NH FlatOther non-handicap2025/2634.5%381397137-
ChaseHandicap2016/17 to 2025/2629.7%13,29514,6494,350-
ChaseNovice2016/17 to 2025/2645.3%3,0263,1621,433-
ChaseOther non-handicap2016/17 to 2025/2645.5%1,6651,722784-
HurdleHandicap2016/17 to 2025/2628.2%15,46217,0024,801-
HurdleNovice2016/17 to 2025/2648.7%5,4415,6312,741-
HurdleOther non-handicap2016/17 to 2025/2644.9%7,7128,0553,614-
NH FlatOther non-handicap2016/17 to 2025/2637.6%4,0214,2291,590-

Handicap = race title contains handicap. Novice = non-handicap race for novices or beginners. Rows under 30 favourite runs (2025/26) or 100 (ten seasons) left out.

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Favourites in October by race type, October 2025

Chase38.0%15917165-
Hurdle38.2%290304116-
NH Flat31.0%394213Under 50 runs

British and Irish jumps, 1 to 31 October 2025.

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Today's jumps favourites

Members see market moves across 20+ bookmakers and RWS scores on every jumps runner in today's racecards.

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Do favourites win more often over hurdles or fences?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

What does the ten-season picture show?

Over 2016/17 to 2025/26, hurdle favourites won 36.4% and chase favourites 33.6%, so a single season can differ from the long run.

Are novice favourites more reliable than handicap favourites?

The split table divides chases, hurdles and bumpers into novice and handicap races, each with runs, strike rate

How do bumper favourites compare?

Bumper favourites won 37.6% over ten seasons, and 34.5% in 2025/26, set beside hurdle and chase favourites in the same table.

Does the gap change in October?

The October table shows chase, hurdle and bumper favourites in October 2025 alone, when many horses make their first run of the season.

Questions people ask

Do chase favourites win more often than hurdle favourites?

In the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season, chase favourites won 33.6% against 37.9% for hurdle favourites. Over ten seasons the figures were 33.6% and 36.4%.

Why can chase favourites get beaten more often?

Fences add jumping errors, falls and unseated riders to the risks a favourite faces. A hurdle favourite is less exposed to those outcomes.

How did bumper favourites do last season?

Bumper favourites, in National Hunt flat races, won 34.5% in the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season. Over ten seasons they won 37.6%, set beside hurdles and chases.

How is the current season going?

In 2026/27 so far, hurdle favourites have won 31.8% and chase favourites 35.9%, from 1,621 races. Early-season samples are small, so the figures can move quickly.

How is a favourite counted?

A favourite is the runner with the lowest Industry SP, and every joint favourite counts. Splits with small samples are flagged.

More free data

Favourite win rateThe overall favourite recordChase debut statsFirst time over fencesHandicap favouritesHandicaps against non-handicapsIrish v British favouritesTwo countries comparedRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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Updated