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First time over fences: chase debut win rate

How often British and Irish chase debutants win, split by last hurdle mark, age, race type and trainer over ten jumps seasons. Today's chase debutants are listed each morning and the current season columns update after every racing day.

10 chase debutants declared today; 2026/27 columns update daily · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
12.5%
Chase debut win rate
9.1%
Fell or unseated
10
Chase debutants today

Over ten jumps seasons, 2016/17 to 2025/26, British and Irish chase debutants won 12.5% of 16,072 runsSample: 16,072 chase debuts · Window: 2016/17 to 2025/26 jumps seasons · Source: RaceWatch results database and declarations (GB and IRE), Industry SP, Betfair SP

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Chase debut stats

All chase debutants16,07212.5%9.1%2,00354812.6%7.7%21915.5%-
Last hurdle mark under 1003,7597.3%9.1%2731719.4%7.6%608.3%-
Last hurdle mark 100 to 1143,37610.1%9.2%34112613.5%9.5%4214.3%-
Last hurdle mark 115 to 1293,20714.2%9.0%45611215.2%7.1%6018.3%-
Last hurdle mark 130 to 1441,71322.3%8.9%3822326.1%8.7%2828.6%-
Last hurdle mark 145 and above32949.2%3.6%162837.5%0.0%366.7%-
No hurdle mark last time3,68810.5%9.9%3891089.3%6.5%267.7%-
Aged 4 or 53,04312.4%10.1%37813211.4%11.4%5117.6%-
Aged 65,95814.6%9.2%87222414.3%5.4%11118.9%-
Aged 74,07211.8%9.0%48111212.5%7.1%355.7%-
Aged 81,85910.5%8.4%1964812.5%10.4%1811.1%-
Aged 9 or older1,1406.7%8.2%76326.3%6.3%40.0%-
Graded or Listed novice chase18515.7%7.6%2930.0%0.0%10.0%-
Beginners' or novices' chase7,76012.7%9.4%98423312.4%10.3%9718.6%-
Handicap chase8,12712.2%8.9%99031212.8%5.8%12113.2%-
Second run over fences13,44114.7%8.2%1,97137314.2%7.8%11112.6%-
Second run over fences, won on debut1,80428.2%8.2%5084831.3%2.1%119.1%-
Second run over fences, fell, unseated or pulled up on debut1,9899.7%10.4%193478.5%14.9%140.0%-

British and Irish chases, 2016/17 to 2025/26. Chase debutant = first chase run in British or Irish racing since May 2014. Last hurdle mark = official rating at the previous run when that run was a hurdle. Rows under 30 runs over ten seasons omitted. Source: RaceWatch results database.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Trainers with chase debutants, ten seasons

Willie Mullins35537.2%8.2%132-
Dan Skelton32524.3%5.8%79-
Gordon Elliott45117.5%7.8%79-
Paul Nicholls27326.0%8.8%71-
Nicky Henderson21431.3%7.9%67-
Henry de Bromhead33518.2%9.9%61-
Nigel Twiston-Davies16121.1%7.5%34-
Fergal O'Brien17819.1%10.1%34-
Olly Murphy14221.8%5.6%31-
Venetia Williams15819.0%10.1%30-
Ben Pauling14919.5%7.4%29-
Alan King12920.9%8.5%27-
Donald McCain17414.9%4.6%26-
Jonjo O'Neill16114.9%9.3%24-
Jamie Snowden10721.5%4.7%23-
Philip Hobbs15014.7%8.0%22-
David Pipe12516.8%9.6%21-
Colin Tizzard11118.0%9.9%20-
Kim Bailey11717.1%9.4%20-
Lucinda Russell15612.8%10.9%20-
Tom George10718.7%9.3%20-
Neil Mulholland15112.6%7.3%19-
Charlie Longsdon13514.1%9.6%19-
Gavin Cromwell1839.8%12.0%18-
Gary Moore11215.2%17.9%17-
Noel Meade11014.5%10.0%16-
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero7621.1%10.5%16-
Emma Lavelle9716.5%8.2%16-
Dr Richard Newland8718.4%4.6%16-
Anthony Honeyball8018.8%12.5%15-
Joseph Patrick O'Brien13011.5%16.2%15-
Chris Gordon6820.6%7.4%14-
Warren Greatrex9914.1%11.1%14-
Harry Fry7817.9%3.8%14-
Sam England6021.7%10.0%13-
Brian Ellison4825.0%8.3%12Under 50 runs
Nicky Richards5721.1%8.8%12-
Sam Thomas3534.3%2.9%12Under 50 runs
Evan Williams1766.3%10.2%11-
John C McConnell4522.2%0.0%10Under 50 runs
Joe Tizzard5219.2%5.8%10-
Rebecca Menzies6515.4%12.3%10-
Oliver Sherwood6214.5%8.1%9-
Martin Keighley6613.6%7.6%9-
Oliver Greenall5416.7%0.0%9-
Tim Vaughan1197.6%7.6%9-
Stuart Edmunds4420.5%9.1%9Under 50 runs
Henry Daly6015.0%13.3%9-
Harry Whittington5018.0%4.0%9-
Emmet Mullins3228.1%12.5%9Under 50 runs

Top 50 yards by chase-debut winners, 2016/17 to 2025/26, minimum 30 runs; under 50 runs flagged.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Chase debut win rate by last hurdle mark, ten seasons
0%20%40%60%80%Last hurdLast hurdLast hurdLast hurdLast hurdNo hurdleChase debutants Last hurdle mark under 100: 7.3%7.3%Chase debutants Last hurdle mark 100 to 114: 10.1%10.1%Chase debutants Last hurdle mark 115 to 129: 14.2%14.2%Chase debutants Last hurdle mark 130 to 144: 22.3%22.3%Chase debutants Last hurdle mark 145 and above: 49.2%49.2%Chase debutants No hurdle mark last time: 10.5%10.5%

Win % by Last hurdle mark

Today's chase debutants

Senator silksSenatorJamie Snowden111Stratford14:13Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase
Kilworth silksKilworthEmma Lavelle109Stratford14:13Bet With On Course Bookmakers Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase
Annual Invitation silksAnnual InvitationChristian Williams93Newton Abbot14:17Bet With The On Course Bookies Handicap Steeple Chase
Reteti silksRetetiSheena West105Newton Abbot14:17Bet With The On Course Bookies Handicap Steeple Chase
Myrighthandman silksMyrighthandmanTom Lacey105Newton Abbot14:17Bet With The On Course Bookies Handicap Steeple Chase
Ballynorth silksBallynorthBen Pauling96Stratford15:34Roy G. T. Clark 100th Birthday Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase
Caelan silksCaelanSarah Humphrey108Market Rasen15:45Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race
Pergamon silksPergamonJennie Candlish119Market Rasen15:45Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race
Takeit Easy silksTakeit EasyPam Sly106Market Rasen15:45Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race
Ballygeary silksBallygearyMike Sowersby106Market Rasen15:45Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race

Declared runners today with no previous chase run in British or Irish racing. Non-runners excluded.

Chase debutants on today's card

Members see every runner on today's racecards with RWS scores, FormLines+ for its hurdle form and full horse and trainer profiles.

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How often do horses win on their first run over fences?

British and Irish chase debutants won 12.5% of 16,072 runs over ten jumps seasons The current season columns show whether this year's debutants are running above or below that.

Do good hurdlers make winning chase debutants?

The main table splits chase debutants by last hurdle mark, from under 100 to 145 and above, and the chart plots win rate for each band over ten seasons.

Does age matter on a chase debut?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Is a beginners' chase or a handicap chase better for a debutant?

Graded and Listed novice chases, beginners' and novices' chases and handicap chases are split out, so the effect of race type on a chase debut can be compared directly.

Which trainers do best with chase debutants?

The trainers table lists 50 yards with chase debutants over ten seasons, with runs, win rate, fall and unseat rate

Questions people ask

How often do chase debutants win?

Over ten British and Irish jumps seasons, chase debutants won 12.5% of 16,072 runs.

How often do chase debutants fall or unseat?

Over the same ten seasons, 9.1% of chase debut runs ended in a fall or an unseated rider. The main table shows the rate for every split, so riskier groups stand out.

What counts as a chase debut?

A chase debut is a horse's first run in a steeplechase in Britain or Ireland. Earlier runs over hurdles or in bumpers do not count, so an experienced hurdler is still a chase debutant the first time it jumps fences.

How did chase debutants do in October 2025?

British and Irish chase debutants won 15.5% of 219 runs in October 2025. The October columns in the main table show the same month for every split.

When is the chase debut page updated?

Today's chase debutants are listed every morning from the declarations, with 10 at the latest refresh. The current season columns update after every racing day, while the ten-season figures stay fixed.

More free data

Fresh v fitReturners against summer jumpersHurdles v chases favouritesHow favourites fare over fencesFirst-time headgearCheekpieces, blinkers and hoodsGrade 1 winnersThis season's roll of honourRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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Updated