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Trainer readiness: which jumps yards win first time out

Each jumps yard's seasonal debut strike rate against its second-run strike rate over ten seasons, with a verdict and a live 2026/27 table. The season table updates after every racing day.

4941 seasonal debuts so far in 2026/27 · Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
+6.6 pts
Widest fresh edge
10.2%
All debuts win %
11.4%
All second runs win %
4,941
Debuts in 2026/27
+6.6 pts

Across 91,202 seasonal debuts, the widest fresh edge among yards with 100 or more debuts belongs to Philip Hobbs & Johnson White at 6.6 points, debut strike rate 13.6% against 7.0% on the second run, British and Irish jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26.Sample: 91,202 seasonal debuts · Window: 2016/17 to 2025/26 jumps seasons · Source: RaceWatch results database, British and Irish jumps

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Fresh edge, busiest yards
Noel Meade6.4Anthony Honeyball5.2Kim Bailey3.3Tom George3.3Willie Mullins1.90John C McConnell1.70P J Rothwell1.50Nigel Twiston-Davies1.40Gavin Cromwell1.20Henry de Bromhead1.20Nicky Henderson0.40Gordon Elliott0.40John Joseph Hanlon0.30Olly Murphy0.20Mrs John Harrington0

Points

Trainer readiness table

Noel MeadeFires fresh+6.418.7%12.3%620513-
Anthony HoneyballFires fresh+5.221.0%15.8%395335-
Kim BaileyFires fresh+3.317.9%14.6%487412-
Tom GeorgeFires fresh+3.314.7%11.4%477413-
Willie MullinsFires either way+1.928.7%26.8%1,7751,450-
John C McConnellFires either way+1.711.0%9.3%427355-
P J RothwellFires either way+1.54.9%3.4%526444-
Nigel Twiston-DaviesFires either way+1.416.8%15.4%740663-
Gavin CromwellFires either way+1.211.8%10.6%798720-
Henry de BromheadFires either way+1.218.0%16.8%1,2041,065-
Nicky HendersonFires either way+0.425.2%24.8%1,073882-
Gordon ElliottFires either way+0.417.1%16.7%2,2251,968-
John Joseph HanlonFires either way+0.36.1%5.8%443359-
Olly MurphyFires either way+0.219.6%19.4%846743-
Mrs John HarringtonFires either way0.011.1%11.1%424361-
Alan KingFires either way0.016.7%16.7%880731-
Colin TizzardFires either way0.013.9%13.9%475446-
Micky HammondFires either way-0.17.8%7.9%599535-
Dan SkeltonFires either way-0.219.4%19.6%1,4911,332-
Paul NolanFires either way-0.29.9%10.1%363298-
N. W. AlexanderFires either way-0.39.6%9.9%395353-
Fergal O'BrienFires either way-0.316.7%17.0%986871-
Jamie SnowdenFires either way-0.519.4%19.9%465413-
Paul NichollsFires either way-0.522.7%23.2%1,1961,042-
Jonjo O'NeillFires either way-0.514.1%14.6%764659-
Evan WilliamsFires either way-0.611.6%12.2%717665-
A. J. MartinFires either way-0.86.0%6.8%352265-
Warren GreatrexFires either way-1.212.8%14.0%439364-
Chris GordonFires either way-1.313.2%14.5%363317-
Neil MulhollandFires either way-1.311.8%13.1%885791-
Charlie LongsdonFires either way-1.411.9%13.3%521465-
Tim VaughanFires either way-1.69.0%10.6%589482-
Rebecca MenziesFires either way-1.65.7%7.3%369316-
Joseph Patrick O'BrienFires either way-1.814.9%16.7%666576-
Donald McCainFires either way-1.812.7%14.5%961825-
Martin KeighleyFires either way-1.910.1%12.0%357301-
Lucinda RussellWait for run two-2.110.1%12.2%674590-
David PipeWait for run two-2.213.0%15.2%667584-
Denis Gerard HoganWait for run two-2.35.3%7.6%395328-
Philip KirbyWait for run two-2.66.9%9.5%360305-
Seamus MullinsWait for run two-2.69.1%11.7%352317-
Harry FryWait for run two-2.818.3%21.1%458374-
Emma LavelleWait for run two-3.012.9%15.9%504433-
Venetia WilliamsWait for run two-3.313.7%17.0%642548-
Nicky RichardsWait for run two-3.414.7%18.1%463403-
Ian WilliamsWait for run two-3.58.5%12.0%423324-
Dr Richard NewlandWait for run two-3.915.9%19.8%415373-
Ben PaulingWait for run two-4.114.1%18.2%616537-
Gary MooreWait for run two-5.59.9%15.4%644557-
Philip HobbsWait for run two-5.712.1%17.8%669583-

British and Irish jumps, 2016/17 to 2025/26 (seasons on the official British and Irish dates). Seasonal debut = first jumps run of the season for a horse that has run before. Second run = its next jumps run in the same season. Fresh edge = debut win % minus 2nd-run win %. Busiest 50 yards, min 30 debuts and 30 second runs; under 50 debuts flagged.

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Readiness by days off

Alan KingUnder 150 days18.9%413
Alan King150 to 250 days17.0%294
Alan KingOver 250 days11.0%173
Dan SkeltonUnder 150 days25.0%505
Dan Skelton150 to 250 days18.8%591
Dan SkeltonOver 250 days13.2%395
Donald McCainUnder 150 days13.7%474
Donald McCain150 to 250 days13.9%266
Donald McCainOver 250 days9.0%221
Evan WilliamsUnder 150 days13.8%269
Evan Williams150 to 250 days10.3%252
Evan WilliamsOver 250 days10.2%196
Fergal O'BrienUnder 150 days18.7%343
Fergal O'Brien150 to 250 days20.3%364
Fergal O'BrienOver 250 days9.7%279
Gavin CromwellUnder 150 days12.3%480
Gavin Cromwell150 to 250 days11.9%185
Gavin CromwellOver 250 days9.8%133
Gordon ElliottUnder 150 days15.0%978
Gordon Elliott150 to 250 days23.1%763
Gordon ElliottOver 250 days11.8%484
Henry de BromheadUnder 150 days17.7%474
Henry de Bromhead150 to 250 days21.1%473
Henry de BromheadOver 250 days12.8%257
Jonjo O'NeillUnder 150 days13.4%305
Jonjo O'Neill150 to 250 days14.7%293
Jonjo O'NeillOver 250 days14.5%166
Lucinda RussellUnder 150 days9.7%278
Lucinda Russell150 to 250 days13.3%248
Lucinda RussellOver 250 days5.4%148
Neil MulhollandUnder 150 days12.2%419
Neil Mulholland150 to 250 days13.6%257
Neil MulhollandOver 250 days8.6%209
Nicky HendersonUnder 150 days28.9%332
Nicky Henderson150 to 250 days27.7%393
Nicky HendersonOver 250 days18.7%348
Nigel Twiston-DaviesUnder 150 days10.1%208
Nigel Twiston-Davies150 to 250 days21.3%376
Nigel Twiston-DaviesOver 250 days14.7%156
Olly MurphyUnder 150 days20.9%278
Olly Murphy150 to 250 days22.4%321
Olly MurphyOver 250 days14.6%247
Paul NichollsUnder 150 days27.1%280
Paul Nicholls150 to 250 days24.6%582
Paul NichollsOver 250 days15.9%334
Willie MullinsUnder 150 days26.7%585
Willie Mullins150 to 250 days32.0%591
Willie MullinsOver 250 days27.5%599

The 16 yards with most seasonal debuts, bands with 30 or more runs.

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2026/27 so far

Gordon Elliott9.2%15.2%141139915
Dan Skelton32.2%39.7%118385823
Henry de Bromhead19.8%18.7%111227514
Willie Mullins17.8%20.0%101186012
Gavin Cromwell7.2%11.5%836617
P J Rothwell6.0%10.0%674505
Olly Murphy22.7%21.4%6615429
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore16.1%4.3%569231
Fergal O'Brien5.7%10.8%533374
Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill13.5%24.2%527338
Mickey Bowen15.7%24.3%518379
Neil Mulholland3.9%29.2%512247
Donald McCain6.4%16.0%473254
John C McConnell4.3%7.5%472403
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies24.4%5.6%4511181
Cian Collins11.9%3.4%425291
John Joseph Hanlon4.9%5.9%412342
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero20.0%8.3%408242
James Owen18.9%30.0%377309
E McNamara0.0%7.7%360262
Paul Nolan8.6%8.0%353252
Mrs C. Williams14.3%0.0%355220
Jamie Snowden28.6%28.6%3510216
Christian Williams9.1%4.8%333211
Ian Patrick Donoghue12.1%0.0%334240
Ben Pauling18.8%25.0%326205
Jennie Candlish19.4%20.0%316255
John Patrick Ryan3.2%6.7%311302
Ross O'Sullivan12.9%20.0%314255
Micky Hammond20.7%23.5%296174
Eoin Christopher McCarthy10.7%4.8%283211
Joe Tizzard10.7%10.0%283101
C Byrnes11.5%15.8%263193
Dermot A McLoughlin7.7%15.0%262203
Ciaran Murphy7.7%11.8%262172
Alan King7.7%14.3%26271
Tom Lacey8.3%8.3%242121
Alastair Ralph12.5%6.7%243151
Denis Gerard Hogan8.3%27.3%242113
Paul Nicholls25.0%10.0%246101

Seasonal debuts since the 2026/27 season began (26 April 2026 in Britain, 3 May 2026 in Ireland) to the last results date, yards with 10 or more.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Readiness on today's returners

Members see each returning runner's yard verdict on the racecard, with RWS scores and Telegram alerts for horses followed in Tracker+.

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How does the trainer readiness table work?

Trainer readiness sets each yard's strike rate on a horse's first run of the jumps season against its strike rate on the second run, and the gap in points becomes the fresh edge.

Which trainers' horses win first time out?

Yards with a fresh edge of +2 points or better over ten jumps seasons fire fresh, meaning their seasonal debutants win more often than their second-time-out runners.

Which yards win at the same rate fresh or fit?

Yards whose fresh edge sits between -2 and +2 points fire either way, so a seasonal debut is neither a positive nor a negative for their runners.

Which yards should you wait on until the second run?

Yards at -2 points or worse win noticeably more often second time out, which suggests their horses are prepared with the first run of the season in mind.

Does readiness change with the number of days off?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Questions people ask

What does a fresh edge of plus 4 mean for a jumps yard?

A fresh edge of plus 4 means the yard's seasonal debutants win four points more often than its horses on their second run. That puts the yard in the fires fresh group.

Which yard has the widest fresh edge?

Among yards with 100 or more debuts, Philip Hobbs & Johnson White has the widest fresh edge at +6.6 points. Its debut strike rate is 13.6% against 7% on the second run.

How many seasonal debuts does a yard need before its first-time-out strike rate means anything?

Yards with fewer than 50 debuts in the ten-season window carry a small-sample flag. Treat their figures as a pointer rather than a pattern.

When does the trainer readiness table update during the jumps season?

The ten-season table is fixed, and the 2026/27 table updates after every racing day. Compare the two to see whether a yard is following its usual pattern this season.

More free data

Trainers whose horses need a runWait for run two yardsSeasonal debut strike rateFirst run of the season leagueWhen yards returnEach yard's return monthReady or notToday's returners and their yardsRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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