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Seasonal debut strike rate by trainer

British and Irish trainers ranked by how often their horses win first time out in a season, jumps and Flat The this-season panel updates after every racing day.

Results to 15 October 2026 · Refreshed 16 October 2026
28.7%
Best jumps debut win %
10.2%
All jumps debuts win %
31.6%
Best Flat debut win %
594
Debut winners this season
28.7%

Among British and Irish jumps yards with 100 or more seasonal debuts, Willie Mullins has the best debut strike rate at 28.7%, against 10.2% for all trainers, 2016/17 to 2025/26.Sample: 1775 debuts · Window: 2016/17 to 2025/26 jumps seasons · Source: RaceWatch results database, British and Irish

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Seasonal debut league, jumps

Willie Mullins28.7%1,775510-
Tom Ellis27.1%5916Under 100 debuts
Harry Derham26.0%15039-
Ann Hamilton25.5%5113Under 100 debuts
Nicky Henderson25.2%1,073270-
Jedd O'Keeffe24.2%9122Under 100 debuts
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies23.2%6916Under 100 debuts
Paul Nicholls22.7%1,196272-
Mickey Bowen22.1%6815Under 100 debuts
Hughie Morrison21.6%7416Under 100 debuts
Jack R Barber21.4%5612Under 100 debuts
Anthony Honeyball21.0%39583-
Sam Thomas19.7%17835-
Olly Murphy19.6%846166-
Dan Skelton19.4%1,491289-
Jamie Snowden19.4%46590-
Tom Lacey18.9%32261-
James Owen18.9%12223-
Noel Meade18.7%620116-
Emmet Mullins18.6%17232-
Harry Fry18.3%45884-
David Killahena & Graeme McPherson18.2%5510Under 100 debuts
Henry de Bromhead18.0%1,204217-
Ruth Jefferson17.9%10619-
Kim Bailey17.9%48787-
J T R Dreaper17.4%6912Under 100 debuts
Gordon Elliott17.1%2,225380-
Nigel Twiston-Davies16.8%740124-
Fergal O'Brien16.7%986165-
Alan King16.7%880147-
Adrian Keatley16.5%7913Under 100 debuts
William Durkan16.4%559Under 100 debuts
Ben Clarke16.1%6210Under 100 debuts
Dr Richard Newland15.9%41566-
J Motherway15.4%528Under 100 debuts
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero15.3%27442-
Declan Queally15.3%17026-
John Quinn15.2%6610Under 100 debuts
James Moffatt15.1%21232-
Malcolm Jefferson15.1%7311Under 100 debuts
Joseph Patrick O'Brien14.9%66699-
Oliver Sherwood14.8%29043-
Harry Whittington14.8%17626-
Nicky Richards14.7%46368-
Tom George14.7%47770-
Lucy Wadham14.6%22633-
Keith Dalgleish14.6%14421-
Joe Tizzard14.4%27840-
Rebecca Curtis14.4%20930-
Henry Daly14.2%31044-

British and Irish jumps, 2016/17 to 2025/26. Seasonal debut = first jumps run of the season for a horse that has run before. Top 50 by debut win %, min 50 debuts; under 100 flagged.

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Seasonal debut league, Flat

John Gosden31.6%494156-
Paddy Twomey28.4%9527Under 100 debuts
Charlie Appleby27.5%553152-
James Tate26.7%26270-
William Haggas25.7%787202-
James Owen23.8%8420Under 100 debuts
Sir Michael Stoute23.4%479112-
Simon Crisford23.2%14233-
Roger Varian23.1%819189-
John & Thady Gosden22.8%41294-
Jack Channon22.0%10022-
Owen Burrows22.0%20545-
David Lanigan21.8%5512Under 100 debuts
Saeed bin Suroor21.7%40688-
Sir Mark Prescott Bt20.9%29662-
James Evans20.6%6313Under 100 debuts
Aidan O'Brien20.4%795162-
Edward Bethell20.3%15331-
Martyn Meade19.8%11623-
Charlie & Mark Johnston19.8%10621-
Willie Mullins19.4%34567-
Archie Watson18.7%44583-
Jack Jones18.3%6011Under 100 debuts
Tom Clover18.2%19235-
Jeremy Noseda17.5%5710Under 100 debuts
Hugo Palmer17.2%45879-
Simon & Ed Crisford17.1%24041-
Karen McLintock16.7%6010Under 100 debuts
Harry Charlton16.7%6010Under 100 debuts
David Barron16.6%22938-
Joseph Patrick O'Brien16.5%869143-
Kevin Philippart de Foy16.3%17829-
Richard Hughes16.2%38863-
Pam Sly16.2%7412Under 100 debuts
Ed Vaughan16.1%6210Under 100 debuts
Luca Cumani16.0%7512Under 100 debuts
Peter Hedger16.0%508Under 100 debuts
Ger Lyons16.0%45172-
Michael Bell15.9%37159-
Harriet Bethell15.8%579Under 100 debuts
Andrew Balding15.7%1,076169-
George Boughey15.5%32250-
Mark Johnston15.5%704109-
Charles Hills15.4%53883-
Ollie Sangster15.4%528Under 100 debuts
Brett Johnson15.1%10616-
George Scott15.0%18728-
Harry Eustace14.9%11417-
Ed Walker14.9%47070-
Peter Chapple-Hyam14.9%9414Under 100 debuts

British and Irish Flat, 2016 to 2025. Seasonal debut = first Flat run of the calendar year for a horse that has run before. Top 50 by debut win %, min 50 debuts.

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This season so far

Dan SkeltonJumps32.2%118382026/27
Henry de BromheadJumps19.8%111222026/27
Willie MullinsJumps17.8%101182026/27
Olly MurphyJumps22.7%66152026/27
Gordon ElliottJumps9.2%141132026/27
Nigel & Willy Twiston-DaviesJumps24.4%45112026/27
Jamie SnowdenJumps28.6%35102026/27
Lucinda Russell & Michael ScudamoreJumps16.1%5692026/27
Oliver Greenall & Josh GuerrieroJumps20.0%4082026/27
Mickey BowenJumps15.7%5182026/27
James OwenJumps18.9%3772026/27
Jonjo & A.J. O'NeillJumps13.5%5272026/27
David Harry KellyJumps27.3%2262026/27
Paul NichollsJumps25.0%2462026/27
Micky HammondJumps20.7%2962026/27
Jennie CandlishJumps19.4%3162026/27
Ben PaulingJumps18.8%3262026/27
Gavin CromwellJumps7.2%8362026/27
Adrian KeatleyJumps41.7%1252026/27
David Killahena & Graeme McPhersonJumps26.3%1952026/27
Stuart EdmundsJumps25.0%2052026/27
Mrs C. WilliamsJumps14.3%3552026/27
Cian CollinsJumps11.9%4252026/27
Nicky RichardsJumps23.5%1742026/27
P J RothwellJumps6.0%6742026/27
Andrew BaldingFlat29.9%137412026
John & Thady GosdenFlat34.2%79272026
Joseph Patrick O'BrienFlat16.5%127212026
William HaggasFlat18.9%106202026
Aidan O'BrienFlat25.7%74192026
Charlie ApplebyFlat31.5%54172026
Ralph BeckettFlat18.2%88162026
Karl BurkeFlat16.7%90152026
Ed WalkerFlat18.5%81152026
Charlie JohnstonFlat17.7%79142026
Edward BethellFlat19.4%67132026
James OwenFlat13.8%94132026
Roger VarianFlat21.7%60132026
Tony CarrollFlat12.6%103132026
George BougheyFlat21.4%56122026
Richard HannonFlat13.6%81112026
Willie MullinsFlat26.3%38102026
Owen BurrowsFlat38.5%26102026
Stuart WilliamsFlat17.6%5192026
Michael ApplebyFlat16.7%5492026
Michael BellFlat23.7%3892026
Richard HughesFlat17.8%4582026
Simon & Ed CrisfordFlat16.3%4982026
Clive CoxFlat19.0%4282026
Andrew SlatteryFlat13.3%6082026

Seasonal debutants since the season began (jumps from 26 April 2026 in Britain and 3 May 2026 in Ireland, Flat 1 January 2026), to the last results date. Top 25 yards by debut winners for each code, min 10 debuts.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Which trainers have the best jumps seasonal debut strike rate?

The jumps seasonal debut league ranks yards by debut strike rate over ten seasons, 2016/17 to 2025/26, with runs, wins

Which Flat trainers win most often on seasonal reappearance?

The Flat seasonal debut league covers 2016 to 2025, counting each horse's first run of the calendar year, turf and all-weather together.

Racing records

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

How is a seasonal debut defined over jumps and on the Flat?

Over jumps a seasonal debut is the first run after 1 May in a season running to 30 April, and on the Flat it is the first run in a calendar year.

Which yards are winning with seasonal debutants this season?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

Questions people ask

Which trainer has the best strike rate with horses on their seasonal reappearance?

Over jumps, Willie Mullins leads yards with 100 or more seasonal debuts at 28.7%. On the Flat, John Gosden leads the same table at 31.6%.

What counts as a seasonal debut on the Flat, where the season runs all year?

On the Flat, a seasonal debut is a horse's first run in a calendar year, on turf or all-weather. Over jumps it is the first run after 1 May.

Is a 20 per cent seasonal debut strike rate good for a big yard?

All jumps debutants won 10.2% over ten seasons, so a yard around 20 per cent is roughly double the average.

More free data

Trainer readinessDebut against second runTrainers whose horses need a runYards that improve second timeWhen yards returnEach yard's return monthFresh v fitReturners against race-fit horsesRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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Updated