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Do favourites win on heavy ground?

Favourite strike rate on every official going description, from good to firm to heavy, on jumps turf, Flat turf and all-weather. The 2026/27 table updates after every racing day as the ground changes through the season.

1612 jumps races so far in 2026/27 · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
35.6%
Heavy, jumps 2025/26
37.5%
Good, jumps 2025/26
36.8%
Heavy, ten seasons
1,612
Races in 2026/27
35.6%

In the 2025/26 British and Irish jumps season, favourites won 35.6% of their runs on heavy going and 37.5% on good, from 392 and 1,913 races.Sample: 392 heavy-ground races · Window: 2025/26 jumps season, with ten-season and Flat 2016 to 2025 comparisons · Source: RaceWatch results database, Industry SP, official going

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Jumps favourite win % by going
Ten seasons2025/26
0%20%40%60%80%Good to FGoodGood to YGood to SYieldingYielding SoftSoft to HHeavyStandard Ten seasons Good to Firm: 38.9%38.9%Ten seasons Good: 35.4%35.4%Ten seasons Good to Yielding: 32.6%32.6%Ten seasons Good to Soft: 35.1%35.1%Ten seasons Yielding: 35.4%35.4%Ten seasons Yielding to Soft: 36.4%36.4%Ten seasons Soft: 35.4%35.4%Ten seasons Soft to Heavy: 35.1%35.1%Ten seasons Heavy: 36.8%36.8%Ten seasons Standard to Slow: 32.9%32.9%2025/26 Good to Firm: 40%40%2025/26 Good: 37.5%37.5%2025/26 Good to Yielding: 34.8%34.8%2025/26 Good to Soft: 35.3%35.3%2025/26 Yielding: 40.4%40.4%2025/26 Yielding to Soft: 38.8%38.8%2025/26 Soft: 34.8%34.8%2025/26 Soft to Heavy: 28.4%28.4%2025/26 Heavy: 35.6%35.6%

Fav win % by Going

Favourites by going, jumps

Good to Firm2016/17 to 2025/2638.9%1,1191,199466-
Good2016/17 to 2025/2635.4%19,03320,4797,244-
Good to Yielding2016/17 to 2025/2632.6%1,8221,976644-
Good to Soft2016/17 to 2025/2635.1%8,3088,9313,137-
Yielding2016/17 to 2025/2635.4%2,2092,387845-
Yielding to Soft2016/17 to 2025/2636.4%775838305-
Soft2016/17 to 2025/2635.4%10,99111,8434,196-
Soft to Heavy2016/17 to 2025/2635.1%1,0671,149403-
Heavy2016/17 to 2025/2636.8%5,1085,4452,005-
Standard to Slow2016/17 to 2025/2632.9%14215250-
Good to Firm2025/2640.0%636526-
Good2025/2637.5%1,9132,036763-
Good to Yielding2025/2634.8%270299104-
Good to Soft2025/2635.3%886956337-
Yielding2025/2640.4%248267108-
Yielding to Soft2025/2638.8%8910340-
Soft2025/2634.8%1,0351,116388-
Soft to Heavy2025/2628.4%14214842-
Heavy2025/2635.6%392419149-

British and Irish jumps, official going on the day. Favourite = lowest Industry SP, joint favourites all count. Bands under 100 favourite runs (ten seasons) or 30 (2025/26) left out; under 50 races flagged.

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Favourites by going, Flat

Firm37.9%534565214Turf-
Good to Firm33.5%13,77114,8834,980Turf-
Good31.2%15,20916,5115,151Turf-
Good to Yielding31.2%9141,001312Turf-
Good to Soft31.2%5,7806,3161,969Turf-
Yielding29.3%1,2581,373402Turf-
Yielding to Soft30.9%603651201Turf-
Soft31.0%6,4837,1082,206Turf-
Soft to Heavy28.2%491549155Turf-
Heavy29.4%2,1012,292673Turf-
Standard32.1%23,17725,0148,036All-weather-
Standard to Slow33.7%6,0486,4692,178All-weather-

British and Irish Flat, 2016 to 2025, turf going bands and all-weather surface descriptions.

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Favourites by going, 2026/27 so far

Good to Firm39.7%125131522026/27 to date-
Good32.5%1,1991,3314322026/27 to date-
Good to Yielding32.5%114120392026/27 to date-
Good to Soft37.2%9194352026/27 to date-
Yielding32.4%3234112026/27 to dateUnder 50 runs
Soft26.9%5152142026/27 to date-

British and Irish jumps from the start of the 2026/27 season (26 April 2026 in Britain, 3 May 2026 in Ireland) to the last results date. Bands under 30 favourite runs left out.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Going and form on today's card

Members see every runner's record on today's going in the racecards, with RWS scores and full horse profiles.

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Do favourites win less often on heavy ground?

Over ten jumps seasons, favourites won 36.8% on heavy from 5,108 races, against 35.4% on good.

How do jumps favourites fare across the going?

The jumps table runs from good to firm to heavy, including the Irish yielding bands, with ten-season and 2025/26 rows for each going.

What about Flat turf?

The Flat table lists favourite strike rate on each turf going from 2016 to 2025

Are all-weather favourites more reliable?

All-weather favourites sit in their own rows of the Flat table, so standard and slow surfaces can be compared with turf going.

How is the going affecting favourites this season?

The 2026/27 table shows favourite strike rate on each going so far this season, from 1,612 races, updated after every racing day.

Questions people ask

Do favourites win on heavy ground?

Over ten British and Irish jumps seasons, favourites won 36.8% on heavy ground On good ground the figure was 35.4%.

How did favourites do on heavy in 2025/26?

In the 2025/26 jumps season, favourites won 35.6% of their runs on heavy ground from 392 races. On good ground they won 37.5%.

Which going is used, the declared going or the going on the day?

The tables use the official going as recorded for the race on the day. Changes after declarations are reflected in the figures.

Are Irish going descriptions treated separately?

Yes, yielding and yielding to soft are kept as their own bands rather than merged with British terms. Both countries sit in the same jumps table.

How often is the favourites by going page updated?

The 2026/27 table updates after every racing day, with 1,612 races so far. The ten-season rows stay fixed at 2016/17 to 2025/26 for jumps and 2016 to 2025 for Flat.

More free data

Favourite win rateThe overall favourite recordFavourites by monthThe favourite record through the yearIrish v British favouritesTwo countries comparedFavourites by field sizeSmall fields against big fieldsRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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