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How often do favourites win, month by month

The favourite win rate for every calendar month over ten seasons, jumps and Flat, with this month's running figure beside the ten-season normal. The this-month table updates after every racing day.

669 races so far this month · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
33.4%
Favourite win rate, ten seasons
36.5%
Best month
31.8%
Worst month
669
Races this month
33.4%

Favourites won 33.4% of their runs in British and Irish races over ten seasons, ranging from 36.5% in February to 31.8% in September.Sample: 127,000 races · Window: Jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26; Flat 2016 to 2025 · Source: RaceWatch results database, Industry SP

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Favourites by month, jumps

May34.1%73.2%4,4189.304,752-
Jun33.6%73.1%2,6889.202,933-
Jul34.5%73.2%2,8959.903,133-
Aug34.2%72.3%2,5979.802,800-
Sep33.9%72.7%2,5659.302,795-
Oct36.3%76.2%4,7419.005,085-
Nov37.8%77.2%6,1259.106,540-
Dec34.4%73.8%5,6979.706,117-
Jan37.1%75.9%4,4529.404,781-
Feb37.4%76.5%4,5758.804,899-
Mar35.3%74.9%5,4498.805,832-
Apr34.1%72.2%4,4229.604,785-

British and Irish jumps, 2016/17 to 2025/26 seasons. Favourite = lowest Industry SP, joint favourites all count. Top three in market win % = share of races won by a horse ranked first to third in the betting.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Favourites by month, Flat

Jan32.3%72.4%3,8539.004,156-
Feb35.1%74.2%3,1288.703,345-
Mar33.2%72.2%3,3819.303,642-
Apr30.6%69.9%5,6179.506,094-
May32.4%71.0%7,8919.508,534-
Jun32.3%70.6%9,6279.5010,442-
Jul33.4%72.0%9,9209.1010,768-
Aug32.0%71.2%10,0259.2010,854-
Sep31.2%70.4%8,7779.809,547-
Oct29.7%67.5%7,12110.907,773-
Nov32.2%69.1%3,80110.704,093-
Dec30.7%69.9%3,23510.103,491-

British and Irish Flat, turf and all-weather, 2016 to 2025. Months with under 50 races flagged.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Favourite win % by month
JumpsFlat
25%30%35%40%45%MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprJumps May: 34.1%Jumps Jun: 33.6%Jumps Jul: 34.5%Jumps Aug: 34.2%Jumps Sep: 33.9%Jumps Oct: 36.3%Jumps Nov: 37.8%Jumps Dec: 34.4%Jumps Jan: 37.1%Jumps Feb: 37.4%Jumps Mar: 35.3%Jumps Apr: 34.1%34.1%Flat May: 32.4%Flat Jun: 32.3%Flat Jul: 33.4%Flat Aug: 32%Flat Sep: 31.2%Flat Oct: 29.7%Flat Nov: 32.2%Flat Dec: 30.7%Flat Jan: 32.3%Flat Feb: 35.1%Flat Mar: 33.2%Flat Apr: 30.6%30.6%

Fav win % by Month

This month so far

JumpsOctober 202636.8%36.3%+0.5240
FlatOctober 202635.3%29.7%+5.6429

Current month to the last results date, against the same month over ten seasons.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Today's favourites in context

Members see market moves across 20+ bookmakers on every favourite in today's racecards, with RWS scores beside each runner.

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How often do favourites win across the year?

Over ten seasons, British and Irish favourites won 33.4% of their runs, ranging from 36.5% in February to 31.8% in September.

How do jumps favourites vary by month?

Public racing records and results from Britain and Ireland.

How do Flat favourites vary by month?

The Flat table covers January to December from 2016 to 2025, so the all-weather winter months can be compared with the turf season.

Why does the favourite's rate change through the year?

Field sizes, the balance of handicaps and the state of the ground all shift with the calendar, and average field size sits beside each month to show one of those effects.

How are favourites doing this month?

The this-month table shows jumps and Flat favourites so far this month against the ten-season figure for the same month, with the difference in its own column.

Questions people ask

How often does the favourite win a horse race?

Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish favourites won 33.4% of their runs Jumps favourites won 35.5% and Flat favourites 32%.

Which month is best for favourites?

February had the highest favourite strike rate of any calendar month over ten seasons, at 36.5%. September was the weakest month, at 31.8%, jumps and Flat combined.

Is this month's favourite rate above or below normal?

The this-month table compares the current month with its ten-season figure for jumps and Flat. The table updates after every racing day, with 669 races so far.

How is a favourite counted?

A favourite is the runner with the lowest Industry SP, and every joint favourite is counted. Months with small samples are flagged.

Which seasons do the monthly figures cover?

Jumps favourites are measured over ten seasons, 2016/17 to 2025/26, and Flat favourites over 2016 to 2025. The figures cover 127,000 races in all.

More free data

Favourite win rateThe overall favourite recordRacing by monthWhat changes through the yearThis monthThis month's stats in one placeFavourites by goingFirm to heavyRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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