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Win rate by odds: how often each price wins

Every Industry SP from odds-on to big outsiders set against its implied chance over ten seasons, jumps and Flat, with Betfair SP bands. The this-season panel updates after every racing day.

2345 runners returned at 5/1 so far this season · Results to 16 October 2026 · Refreshed 17 October 2026
14%
5/1 shots win %
44.5%
Evens win %
7.2%
10/1 shots win %
1,201,143
Runs analysed
14.0%

Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish runners starting at 5/1 won 14.0% of 37,169 runs, against an implied chance of 16.7%.Sample: 37,169 runs at 5/1 · Window: Jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26; Flat 2016 to 2025 · Source: RaceWatch results database, Industry SP and Betfair SP

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Win rate by Industry SP, jumps

2/5 or shorter76.7%71.4%2,3641,813-
4/965.6%69.4%547359-
1/261.9%66.7%517320-
8/1565.4%65.4%376246-
4/761.8%63.7%560346-
8/1360.4%61.7%616372-
4/657.7%59.9%872503-
8/1154.9%57.8%998548-
4/549.8%55.6%875436-
5/651.2%54.6%1,079552-
10/1148.9%52.4%1,370670-
Evens45.6%50.0%1,854846-
11/1043.2%47.6%1,638707-
6/543.2%45.5%1,177508-
5/441.5%44.4%2,308957-
11/841.3%42.0%2,4331,005-
6/436.0%40.0%2,9821,075-
13/835.6%38.2%2,624933-
7/434.0%36.4%3,2881,119-
15/833.5%34.7%2,960993-
2/129.6%33.3%5,4751,621-
85/4030.1%32.1%465140-
9/427.5%30.8%6,2171,709-
5/225.3%28.6%7,3501,856-
11/424.7%26.7%7,2291,785-
3/122.9%25.0%9,9932,291-
16/520.8%23.8%879183-
100/3019.7%23.1%6,8201,344-
7/219.2%22.2%12,1562,333-
4/117.5%20.0%14,2922,494-
9/215.8%18.2%13,8662,194-
5/113.8%16.7%13,7371,899-
11/212.4%15.4%10,5031,307-
6/112.0%14.3%13,3701,599-
13/210.9%13.3%8,590938-
7/110.2%12.5%13,9381,422-
15/210.6%11.8%7,060750-
8/19.0%11.1%15,9271,437-
17/28.4%10.5%5,212438-
9/17.7%10.0%12,227945-
10/17.3%9.1%16,5331,203-
11/1 to 16/15.3%-69,5743,708-
17/1 to 20/13.5%-25,010876-
22/1 to 33/12.1%-55,4141,158-
35/1 to 50/11.1%-29,406325-
55/1 to 100/10.4%-33,195140-
Bigger than 100/10.1%-22,88826-

British and Irish jumps, 2016/17 to 2025/26 seasons. Implied chance = 1 divided by decimal SP, before overround. Prices with under 300 runs left out

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Win rate by Industry SP, Flat

2/5 or shorter75.6%71.4%1,8011,362-
4/967.1%69.4%490329-
1/263.7%66.7%438279-
8/1557.8%65.4%344199-
4/761.8%63.7%571353-
8/1358.0%61.7%600348-
4/655.7%59.9%875487-
8/1154.3%57.8%1,117606-
4/552.6%55.6%987519-
5/648.4%54.6%1,257609-
10/1150.0%52.4%1,655828-
Evens43.6%50.0%2,191956-
11/1042.8%47.6%2,018864-
6/543.2%45.5%1,449626-
5/441.8%44.4%2,8521,191-
11/839.3%42.0%3,1761,247-
6/436.8%40.0%3,8311,408-
13/836.3%38.2%3,3841,227-
7/433.7%36.4%4,4211,491-
15/831.9%34.7%3,9731,268-
2/129.8%33.3%7,9982,386-
85/4031.8%32.1%544173-
9/427.7%30.8%9,2382,560-
5/227.0%28.6%11,0172,972-
11/424.9%26.7%10,9532,722-
3/122.2%25.0%15,5563,452-
16/522.6%23.8%1,351305-
100/3021.0%23.1%10,4482,197-
7/219.2%22.2%19,6243,771-
18/517.5%21.7%42875-
4/117.2%20.0%23,4534,027-
9/215.4%18.2%22,8153,523-
5/114.2%16.7%23,4323,317-
11/213.4%15.4%17,3472,327-
6/112.2%14.3%22,6742,774-
13/211.6%13.3%14,9341,736-
7/110.4%12.5%23,8742,494-
15/210.2%11.8%12,3921,268-
8/19.1%11.1%28,4342,577-
17/28.6%10.5%8,853759-
9/18.1%10.0%21,0741,706-
10/17.1%9.1%28,8462,047-
11/1 to 16/15.5%-120,7586,687-
17/1 to 20/13.4%-42,6261,446-
22/1 to 33/12.3%-91,3972,115-
35/1 to 50/11.1%-43,351495-
55/1 to 100/10.5%-40,922204-
Bigger than 100/10.2%-20,61042-

British and Irish Flat, 2016 to 2025.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Actual win % v implied chance, prices to 10/1
JumpsFlat
71.4Flat: 75.671.4: 76.769.4Flat: 67.169.4: 65.666.7Flat: 63.766.7: 61.965.4Flat: 57.865.4: 65.463.7Flat: 61.863.7: 61.861.7Flat: 58.061.7: 60.459.9Flat: 55.759.9: 57.757.8Flat: 54.357.8: 54.955.6Flat: 52.655.6: 49.854.6Flat: 48.454.6: 51.252.4Flat: 50.052.4: 48.950.0Flat: 43.650.0: 45.647.6Flat: 42.847.6: 43.245.5Flat: 43.245.5: 43.244.4Flat: 41.844.4: 41.542.0Flat: 39.342.0: 41.340.0Flat: 36.840.0: 36.038.2Flat: 36.338.2: 35.636.4Flat: 33.736.4: 34.034.7Flat: 31.934.7: 33.533.3Flat: 29.833.3: 29.632.1Flat: 31.832.1: 30.130.8Flat: 27.730.8: 27.528.6Flat: 27.028.6: 25.3

Win % by Implied chance %

Win rate by Betfair SP band

Jumps1.01 to 1.9960.4%61.8%2,1551,302-
Jumps2.0 to 2.9939.0%40.3%4,5181,764-
Jumps3.0 to 3.9928.6%28.7%5,4971,574-
Jumps4.0 to 5.9920.5%20.3%11,4382,348-
Jumps6.0 to 7.9914.9%14.6%9,6721,441-
Jumps8.0 to 10.9910.7%10.8%10,9251,174-
Jumps11 to 15.997.9%7.7%13,3061,045-
Jumps16 to 20.995.5%5.5%8,233453-
Jumps21 to 50.993.4%3.3%19,931677-
Jumps51 to 100.991.5%1.4%8,290121-
Jumps101 or bigger0.3%0.4%15,68751-
Flat1.01 to 1.9960.8%61.5%2,6961,638-
Flat2.0 to 2.9940.0%40.0%6,8312,732-
Flat3.0 to 3.9928.5%28.7%9,6292,748-
Flat4.0 to 5.9920.2%20.3%21,4294,331-
Flat6.0 to 7.9914.3%14.5%19,3672,773-
Flat8.0 to 10.9911.0%10.8%21,4462,369-
Flat11 to 15.997.5%7.7%26,0431,947-
Flat16 to 20.995.8%5.5%16,167942-
Flat21 to 50.993.4%3.3%39,7121,340-
Flat51 to 100.991.4%1.4%15,540220-
Flat101 or bigger0.4%0.5%20,33489-

Betfair SP is available from March 2024 only, so this table covers 1 March 2024 to the last results date, excluding runs without a BSP (most of January and February 2026).

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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5/1 shots this season

Jumps5/113.1%413542026/27 to date
Flat5/115.1%1,9322922026 to date

Runners returned at exactly 5/1, to the last results date.

Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.

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Live prices on today's card

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How does each price compare with its implied chance?

Each Industry SP shows runs, wins, strike rate and implied probability

How often do odds-on and short-priced runners win?

Short-priced runners from odds-on to 2/1 are shown price by price over ten seasons, including evens.

How often do double-figure prices win?

Prices up to 10/1 are shown one by one, then bigger prices are grouped into bands

Why is Betfair SP shown next to Industry SP?

Betfair SP comes from the exchange with a smaller built-in margin, so its bands give a closer read of true chance from March 2024.

Do prices behave the same on the Flat and over jumps?

The price tables are split by code, since field sizes and the share of handicaps differ between Flat and jumps.

Questions people ask

How often does a 5/1 shot actually win a horse race?

Over ten seasons, 5/1 shots in Britain and Ireland won 14% of 37,169 runs.

Does an evens favourite win as often as its price implies?

Runners at evens won 44.5% over ten seasons, against an implied chance of one in two. The table shows the same comparison for every price.

At what price does the market start to overprice outsiders?

The fall usually steepens in the double-figure prices.

How are 5/1 shots doing this season?

The live panel shows 5/1 runners in the current jumps and Flat seasons, with 2,345 runs so far. Strike rate

More free data

Favourite win rateHow often favourites winBookmaker marginsThe margin in each marketBig-priced winners by courseWhere outsiders winFavouritesToday's favourites and their recordsRacing reportsMonthly reports and the annual review

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Updated