How the handicapper reassesses a horse after a run

What does the handicapper look at after a run?

After each run the handicapper looks at the finishing positions, the winning margins, the ratings of the horses beaten and how the race was run, then decides whether the rating should change.

The handicapper picks out reliable horses in the race, ones that have run to their marks before, and uses them as a yardstick. If the yardstick horses ran to form, the winner's rise follows from the margin. If the race was falsely run or the placed horses are unreliable, the handicapper may be cautious and raise the winner less than the margin suggests.

• Winning and beaten margins, converted into pounds
• Ratings of the horses that ran to form
• Pace of the race and any trouble in running
• Ground, trip and whether the race was competitive
• The horse's age and how lightly raced it is

When do new British handicap ratings take effect?

British official ratings are published weekly, on a Tuesday, and take effect from the following Saturday. A handicap uses the ratings in force when its weights were set, so the timing of a win decides which mark a horse races off.

Weights for most handicaps are set several days before the race, and for the biggest handicaps weeks before. A horse that wins after the weights for its next race have been published cannot be re-weighted, so the race conditions add a penalty instead. That is the window trainers use to turn a winner out quickly.

Irish ratings are revised on their own timetable by the Irish handicappers, so check the latest Irish ratings when a horse switches country. A horse can hold a British and an Irish mark at the same time, and the two do not always move together, so the mark it races off depends on where the race is run.

How do penalties work before the handicapper has reassessed a winner?

A handicap winner turned out again before its new rating applies usually carries a penalty, a set number of pounds added for the recent win, as printed in the race conditions.

The penalty stands in for the rise the handicapper has not yet applied. It is a fixed figure, the same for a narrow win and a wide one, which is why an easy winner carrying a penalty can still be racing off a lower effective mark than the handicapper will give it. On a racecard the penalty appears beside the weight, for example 6ex for six pounds extra.

How much does a horse usually go up after winning a handicap?

Rises after a handicap win vary with the margin and the quality of the field: a narrow win may bring a few pounds and a wide-margin win against in-form rivals much more.

A short-head winner of a competitive 0-85 might go up 2lb or 3lb. A five-length winner of the same race over a mile, where a length is worth about 2lb, can go up 8lb or 10lb if the placed horses ran to form. Very lightly raced horses can be raised sharply because the handicapper expects more improvement to come.

Why does a horse get dropped in the weights?

A horse is dropped in the weights when it keeps running below its official rating. Each drop lowers the weight it carries, which the handicapper expects to make it more competitive.

Drops tend to come a few pounds at a time after a series of defeats, not after one bad run with a clear excuse such as unsuitable ground or a bad draw. Horses that have been dropped several times are said to be well handicapped when they fall below their last winning mark, but they are often dropped because they are declining, and the chart shows how rarely falling marks alone produce winners.

Can a trainer run a horse off its old mark after a win?

A trainer can run a winner again before the new rating takes effect, racing off the old mark plus any penalty, which is often judged lighter than the coming rise.

This is common with improving horses. If a trainer expects a 9lb rise and the penalty is 6lb, running quickly effectively saves 3lb. The racecard shows the penalty beside the weight, and the OR Timeline shows whether the horse has already been reassessed.

How do horses perform after a rise or a drop in the weights?

The chart pairs consecutive handicap runs over ten seasons and shows next-run win rates after rating drops, no change and rises of different sizes, for flat and jumps handicaps.

Horses raised in the weights win more often than horses dropped, because a rise follows good form and a drop follows poor form. That pattern holds in both codes. What matters for a single horse is whether it is still improving faster than the handicapper, which the rise alone cannot tell you.

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