Strike rate in horse racing explained

How is strike rate calculated?

Strike rate is winners divided by runners, multiplied by 100. A jockey with 50 winners from 400 rides has a strike rate of 12.5 per cent.

The calculation is the same for a trainer, a jockey, an owner, a sire or a betting angle. Only the group of runs changes. Strike rates are usually quoted for a period, such as the last 14 days, the current season or five years, and for a slice of racing, such as a course, a distance or a type of race. Always check which window and which slice a figure covers before comparing two of them.

Non-runners are left out, because they never ran; horses that fell, pulled up or were unseated count as runs that did not win. Races declared void are left out as well, because no result stands.

What counts as a good strike rate for a trainer or jockey?

No single strike rate counts as good everywhere. A big yard with many favourites can top 20 per cent, while a small yard running outsiders may be doing well at 10 per cent. The type of horses behind the figure matters.

In Britain the average runner wins roughly one race in eight or nine, because average fields are around eight or nine runners. A trainer or jockey well above that is either handling better horses or getting more out of them. The flat trainers' table on this page lists this season's leaders with runs, wins, strike rate

What is the difference between win and place strike rate?

Win strike rate counts only winners, while place strike rate also counts horses finishing in the paid places. The number of places depends on the field size and race type.

Place strike rate is useful for judging consistency and for each-way interest. A jockey with a modest win strike rate but a high place strike rate is getting horses into the frame regularly, which can point to good rides on horses that are simply not quite good enough. The leaderboards include a place column for that reason.

Why do the odds of the runners change what a strike rate means?

The same strike rate can hide very different stories. A 20 per cent strike rate from short-priced favourites is expected; the same rate from 8/1 shots is remarkable.

The worked example shows two yards with identical strike rates. Yard A's runners were mostly short-priced, so the market expected about 29 winners from 100 runs and they managed 20. Yard B's runners were mostly longer prices, the market expected about 11 winners and they managed 20. Same strike rate, opposite conclusions.

Should you use a 14-day strike rate or a season strike rate?

A 14-day strike rate shows whether a yard's horses are running well now, but it rests on few runs and can swing quickly. The season figure is steadier, so the two are best read together.

Three winners from ten runners is a 30 per cent strike rate, but one losing favourite tomorrow drops it sharply. Short windows are best used as a warning light: a yard with no winners from 30 runners in a fortnight may have a problem, while a yard striking well above its season rate may be in top form. Confirm the signal with runs that finished close up, not just winners.

• Check the number of runs behind a short-term figure
• Compare it with the season and five-year rates
• Look at placed runs as well as winners
• Watch for yards with runners but no recent winners

Racing records

Strike rate shows how often something wins Reading both together is the quickest way to judge a trainer or jockey.

For jockeys, add one more check: the quality of the rides. A jockey who rides for a big stable will have a higher strike rate than one picking up spare rides on outsiders, even if the second is the better rider.

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